2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Person Man]

Pennsylvania's going through the same "a few hundred votes here, a few hundred votes there" margin fluctuation as Georgia. Presumably they're counting those non-Philly/Allegheny provisionals Kornacki is so worried about.

When Allegheny county (Pittsburgh) starts releasing their last batch of 30K absentee ballots after 5PM, that should more than compensate for the provisional ballots trickling in.

So there’s 30k mail ballots in Pittsburgh, 40k in Philly, 40k provos in Philly and 50k provos everywhere else. Is that about it?

[Person Man]

Riley County, Kansas had never voted Democrat from its founding in 1864 until 2016. Joe Biden has won the county 50-47. Governor Kelly (D) also won the state in 2018. Riley is home to Kansas State University and the city of Manhattan.

Really hilly there.

[Person Man]

I believe FOX on Arizona

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/profmusgrave/status/1325048875397378048

Yes.

[Person Man]

Fulton County just came through with 5.1K ballots.

+2,818 Biden. His statewide lead now stands at 7,248 votes.

It looks like Fulton counted their military, oversees and provisional ballots and it came out more Democratic than the existing counted votes. It's over for Trump in GA.

How many are left now? 15000? Less?

[Person Man]

How many left in Georgia?

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1325895522612285442
there is no bottom...

Do they really think that going full retard is the best strategy for the runoff?

well they do need to speak directly to their base.

That’s pretty much it. Reactionary thought is a disease.

[Person Man]

Nevada hasn't stopped counting, correct? Don't they have a large chunk left?

They do have quite a few left, but it's mostly Clark County and will add to Biden's lead.

Do you think it will be enough for Nevada to not trend R?

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1326278802150879233
Surprised this wasn't better for Biden but obviously not enough for Trump by a long shot. Just want this called by the stragglers already.

Biden was supposed to shut the door here on Trump so not great for either. Trump loses a big chunk of remaining votes without picking up too much and now needs a higher percentage of whatever remains.

That’s half the Pima stuff.

[Person Man]

I frankly don't join that sneering view of the white working class quite so much. That point can simply be limited to as I noted that Republican series about effect of liberal Progressive governance and supposed to struction of wealth production simply don't comport with reality. Even closely. At all.

I'm more concerned that these poor and working-class whites are supporting Trump not because they give a rat's ass about Republican Economic Policy, but because they don't believe there's any meaningful distinction between the parties on that front. That said, I am not convinced it all by the left wings argument all they need to do is run a Bernie Sanders style Democratic socialists and these working-class whites will Rush to embrace real economic change.

https://twitter.com/forevertawl/status/1294424061590867968

It might actually work but for and inspire of completely ironic reasons.

[Person Man]

now only Pima and Maricopa are still out, they should call Arizona already

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/Tom_M4AZ/status/1326313534419062786

Remaining Votes:
- Apache (1,700)
- Graham (5)
- La Paz (0)

Apache is a Dem county...

[Person Man]

A hand recount is insane for a margin of 14,000 votes.

Still, better to be up by 14,000 than down at this stage. 

Nothings happening.

[Person Man]

How likely will Democrats win at least one other House seat in New York with all the D heavy stuff out?

[Person Man]

How likely will Democrats win at least one other House seat in New York with all the D heavy stuff out?

Suozzi will very likely come back.  Beyond that, probably not.

So it will be 222-213? A lot of this stuff is in liberal states, too. Too bad you can’t really gerrymander CA and NY huh?

[Person Man]

Anything coming out of AZ today?  Boy, would like to get that one in the books.  Would put real pressure on Trump with the high recount standards.

I don’t think there’s much of anything left?

There's an estimated 45K outstanding (27K of which is provisionals and 3K needing signature cures -- not all of these categories will be accepted).  They may have stopped counting today for the holiday.

Realistically 35k?

[Person Man]

Anything coming out of AZ today?  Boy, would like to get that one in the books.  Would put real pressure on Trump with the high recount standards.

I don’t think there’s much of anything left?

There's an estimated 45K outstanding (27K of which is provisionals and 3K needing signature cures -- not all of these categories will be accepted).  They may have stopped counting today for the holiday.

Realistically 35k?

The model I've been using in the updates to see whether Trump could catch up uses 50% acceptance for the signature cures and 80% for provisionals.  That estimates 38,835 accepted of 45,819 remaining ballots.  But both of those percentages are unrealistically high (deliberately so to see if Trump had any realistic chance).  35K is probably a reasonable estimate; if anything, I'd take the under on it.

So Trump needs 24 out of 35? So 68-69% where he will probably get 58% +\-5%?

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1326725575206076416

So...that about seals it, huh?

[Person Man]

So there’s probably 20 still out and he’s down by 12? That’s like 80% needed.

[Person Man]

Michigan and New Hampshire were overtaken by Arizona and Georgia as the closest states and still neither will be as close as the former were in 2016.

[Person Man]

The provos are ED votes, right? My guess is that Election Day stuff will be Trump+13 of county and that non-ED stuff will be like Biden+20.

[Person Man]

Arizona is no longer in doubt, but for those interested: Pinal County zeroed out their estimated ballots remaining (they only had 135 before that).  There are now five counties with a significant number (>10) of estimated ballots left:

Pima: 10,700, currently 59-40 Biden
Maricopa: 6,715, 50-48 Biden
Cochise: 3,319, 58-40 Trump
Yuma: 2,155, 52-46 Trump
Apache: 1,700, 66-33 Biden

Not all will be counted.

[Person Man]

When will we know the first results from the mail ballots in NY? I know they are slow to count.

Most counties will only report votes in their final official results, or may be picked up by local media outlets. The only county really actively reporting their absentee count right now is Onondaga County where Biden currently leads by 60%, a 52% swing from their final election day total.

edit: Cayuga County as well, Biden+35, a 54% swing.

Wow so maybe Biden's gonna dominate in upstate NY as lots of the district polls suggested after all.

Would help a 7 seat majority become a 13 seat majority.

[Person Man]

They deleted his victory apparently.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1326926226888544256

This is getting out of hand...

Agreed. Trump should actually be banned from Twitter. Or "terminated" to use his language.

I think that this would actually make it worse. However, people around him and high-ranking Rs should intervene before it’s too late.

It would literally destroy the country if he is still president on the 21st of January.

[Person Man]

https://mobile.twitter.com/kylenabecker/status/1326964979237597185

Will this change the outcome? Have these been counted yet?

I don’t think they have.