2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[wbrocks67]

I'm guessing Michigan has Joe Biden/John James victories.

Nevada will come down to the wire but Biden should win.

Arizona is a tossup, no clue what's going on there.

Gut says Trump narrowly hangs on in Georgia.

If Arizona isn't a sure thing, we need Pennsylvania.

How many times does it need to be said that the large majority of MI vote out is very blue

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/kyfri11/status/1324070580732252163?s=19

I don't think ABC ever confirmed AZ for Biden. Just Fox and AP. If ABC did, then AP/NBC would have, since they all have Edison?

[wbrocks67]

Twitter is awful

https://twitter.com/CraigSilverman/status/1324081595549188097

[wbrocks67]

Biden is going to win PA. I’m more confident of that by the minute. His advantage with mail vote is MASSIVE, bigger than other states for whatever reason. In fact it may end up even voting farthest left of the “big three” in the end.

Makes sense, the early vote in PA was very lopsided. It was like Dems +40-45 before taking into account Indies.

[wbrocks67]

Any word from Michigan on the remaining 20% in Wayne?

[wbrocks67]

Trump has fallen below 400K now in PA, with +398K lead with NYT estimating 1.3M votes to go.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-pennsylvania-president.html

Biden just needs to win 65% of the remaining mail vote to catch Trump in a tie. Thus far he has won mail-ins 78-21.

[wbrocks67]

Margin just dropped to 6.8% in Pennsylvania, which batch came in?

random ones from Bucks, Allegheny, Philly, and Montco from what I can tell. Small ones from each tho

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1324080911571394561?s=19

At least a decent amount of Trump supporters are self-aware enough to know that their support for him is toxic. Too bad they're not self-aware enough to reflect and change.

omg thank you for this. i cackled

[wbrocks67]

Why does it matter if Biden wins?   He's going to be a do nothing lame duck with an R Senate and a 6-3 Supreme court.

idk, so we don't have a wannabe fascist dictator as our leader?

[wbrocks67]

It appears we are still missing nearly 20% of Kalamazoo in MI, as well, where Biden is leading by 10

[wbrocks67]

PA is not a done deal yet.

I have just looked at the figures.

1.067 million postal ballots are left to count (they broke 78-21 Biden so far).

Biden gains a net 608.000 votes from those.

Trump is currently ahead by 440.000

So far, so good.

Biden wins by 168.000 in the end.

But 8% of PAs 8000+ Election Day precincts are also not counted yet.

Those account for an additional 338.000 votes.

Election Day votes went 66-33 Trump so far.

Trump nets 111.000 votes from those.

Biden still comes out 57.000 ahead, but there’s room for bigger movement.

Trump is ahead by less than 400K right now, not 440K.

Yes, but there are also less than 1 million postal ballots left now.

One goes hand in hand with the other.

There are over 1.3M postal ballots left. Can you check your facts before posting? That's 2/2 misstatements. We really don't need this.

There are less than 1 million postal ballots left.

Check the PA DOS dashboard.

It is not updated constantly. You need to remove the counted postal ballots from the „total issued“ number in the dashboard to get the actual number of ballots left !

I'm sure NYT is accounting for late ballots though. In Montco example, the # was fluid, where it went up today after going down bc I think they may have processed more ballots that they got since yesterday

[wbrocks67]

Do we know how much is out in MI still? I feel like I saw 100K earlier but not sure.

[wbrocks67]

So.. I'll ask again.

Do we actually know anything about when PA results are coming? They literally have barely budged all day. Given this entire race is.. hinging on it?

I believe it's understood that PA will not finalize its count until Friday.

Yep. At the earliest. We don't know how long it will take them to count any ballots that arrive on Friday up until 5pm

[wbrocks67]

Georgia looking good!

https://twitter.com/gtryan/status/1324083501013020673?s=20

Would be great if the ATL could hurry up and report their ballots.

[wbrocks67]

Biden's lead in Michigan is now almost 40,000.

as Wayne county waits till 2021 to report that last 20%

[wbrocks67]

Is the media coming down hard on Trump declaring victory in PA?

Are they reporting it at all?

Not a word about it on CNN

He's also suing them though which I'm sure will make the news

[wbrocks67]

still 374k lead for Trump out of Pennsylvania

Yes, that has dwindled nearly 100K just in the last hour or two.

[wbrocks67]

Is the NYT site correct? They say Michigan has processed 1.4 mil absentee/mail ballots, but McDonald's site says there was 2.8mil?

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/EricTrump/status/1324086031591886850?s=19

this is so irresponsible

[wbrocks67]

It looks like Wayne may finally be reporting

FOX has Biden now up by 61K votes, +1.1%

Biden 2,672,896 (49.8%)
Trump 2,611,661 (48.7%)

https://www.foxnews.com/elections/2020/general-results/state/michigan

[wbrocks67]

It looks like Wayne may finally be reporting

FOX has Biden now up by 61K votes, +1.1%

Biden 2,672,896 (49.8%)
Trump 2,611,661 (48.7%)

https://www.foxnews.com/elections/2020/general-results/state/michigan

Peters also up by 6K votes now

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/johnrobertsFox/status/1324087668398006272

theres no way all 605K is "day of vote" (as in election day vote, not dropping off ballots

[wbrocks67]

Another 23K drop in Philly. Was Biden 20K, Trump 3K (86-14)

[wbrocks67]

Biden ahead by nearly 65K in Michigan now.

Biden 2,680,665 (49.8%)
Trump 2,616,170 (48.6%)

Peters up by 9K now, 49.14% to 48.97%.

[wbrocks67]

I know it will change, but I love the irony that Biden is currently doing worse than Hillary in terms of the popular vote and yet appears to be on his way to victory.

More importantly, though, it probably means a lot of the outstanding vote is going to Biden generally, not just in the swing states.

What are you talking about?  Biden is outperforming Hillary in the NPV.

Not to mention nearly everything nationwide that is still out is mail in, and that favors Biden by a lot