2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[wbrocks67]

Trump has fallen below 400K now in PA, with +398K lead with NYT estimating 1.3M votes to go.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-pennsylvania-president.html

Biden just needs to win 65% of the remaining mail vote to catch Trump in a tie. Thus far he has won mail-ins 78-21.

[ultraviolet]

Gut feeling;
MI: Biden maintains his lead and Peters narrowly pulls ahead, could be tight though.
PA: Biden pulls ahead
GA: Trump narrowly hangs onto it but it’s within recount territory
AZ: Trump makes it barely
NV: Biden actually improves
NC: Recount, this will take the longest to call.

I agree with you except AZ. I think Biden will eke it out there

[Holmes]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1324080911571394561?s=19

At least a decent amount of Trump supporters are self-aware enough to know that their support for him is toxic. Too bad they're not self-aware enough to reflect and change.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

PA is not a done deal yet.

I have just looked at the figures.

1.067 million postal ballots are left to count (they broke 78-21 Biden so far).

Biden gains a net 608.000 votes from those.

Trump is currently ahead by 440.000

So far, so good.

Biden wins by 168.000 in the end.

But 8% of PAs 8000+ Election Day precincts are also not counted yet.

Those account for an additional 338.000 votes.

Election Day votes went 66-33 Trump so far.

Trump nets 111.000 votes from those.

Biden still comes out 57.000 ahead, but there’s room for bigger movement.

The outstanding vote is not evenly distributed across the state.  It is much more heavily weighted toward Democratic areas (especially Philly) than Republican ones.  So Biden should actually do much better than 78-21 among remaining absenteed.

[Tender Branson]

PA is not a done deal yet.

I have just looked at the figures.

1.067 million postal ballots are left to count (they broke 78-21 Biden so far).

Biden gains a net 608.000 votes from those.

Trump is currently ahead by 440.000

So far, so good.

Biden wins by 168.000 in the end.

But 8% of PAs 8000+ Election Day precincts are also not counted yet.

Those account for an additional 338.000 votes.

Election Day votes went 66-33 Trump so far.

Trump nets 111.000 votes from those.

Biden still comes out 57.000 ahead, but there’s room for bigger movement.

Trump is ahead by less than 400K right now, not 440K.

Yes, but there are also less than 1 million postal ballots left now.

One goes hand in hand with the other.

[wbrocks67]

Margin just dropped to 6.8% in Pennsylvania, which batch came in?

random ones from Bucks, Allegheny, Philly, and Montco from what I can tell. Small ones from each tho

[Skill and Chance]

I think we're going to end up with this.

[CrimsonCommander688]

Why does it matter if Biden wins?   He's going to be a do nothing lame duck with an R Senate and a 6-3 Supreme court.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1324080911571394561?s=19

At least a decent amount of Trump supporters are self-aware enough to know that their support for him is toxic. Too bad they're not self-aware enough to reflect and change.

omg thank you for this. i cackled

[Bootes Void]

James leads michigan by 13-14k votes. Wayne County is only 80% in, where Peters has a 266k lead. If current trends continue, Peters can get 66K more votes just from Wayne alone.

I would say Peters narrowly pulls it out

[Dr. Arch]

PA is not a done deal yet.

I have just looked at the figures.

1.067 million postal ballots are left to count (they broke 78-21 Biden so far).

Biden gains a net 608.000 votes from those.

Trump is currently ahead by 440.000

So far, so good.

Biden wins by 168.000 in the end.

But 8% of PAs 8000+ Election Day precincts are also not counted yet.

Those account for an additional 338.000 votes.

Election Day votes went 66-33 Trump so far.

Trump nets 111.000 votes from those.

Biden still comes out 57.000 ahead, but there’s room for bigger movement.

Trump is ahead by less than 400K right now, not 440K.

Yes, but there are also less than 1 million postal ballots left now.

One goes hand in hand with the other.

There are over 1.3M postal ballots left. Can you check your facts before posting? That's 2/2 misstatements. We really don't need this.

[wbrocks67]

Why does it matter if Biden wins?   He's going to be a do nothing lame duck with an R Senate and a 6-3 Supreme court.

idk, so we don't have a wannabe fascist dictator as our leader?

[͘]

I think we're going to end up with this.

I feel a little sick seeing Georgia red

[Pick Up the Phone]

Returns from PA look very promising for Biden. If this doesn’t change, neither NV nor AZ matters.

[Tender Branson]

PA is not a done deal yet.

I have just looked at the figures.

1.067 million postal ballots are left to count (they broke 78-21 Biden so far).

Biden gains a net 608.000 votes from those.

Trump is currently ahead by 440.000

So far, so good.

Biden wins by 168.000 in the end.

But 8% of PAs 8000+ Election Day precincts are also not counted yet.

Those account for an additional 338.000 votes.

Election Day votes went 66-33 Trump so far.

Trump nets 111.000 votes from those.

Biden still comes out 57.000 ahead, but there’s room for bigger movement.

Trump is ahead by less than 400K right now, not 440K.

Yes, but there are also less than 1 million postal ballots left now.

One goes hand in hand with the other.

There are over 1.3M postal ballots left. Can you check your facts before posting? That's 2/2 misstatements. We really don't need this.

There are less than 1 million postal ballots left.

Check the PA DOS dashboard.

It is not updated constantly. You need to remove the counted postal ballots from the „total issued“ number in the dashboard to get the actual number of ballots left !

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

I think we're going to end up with this.

Good chance that absolutely nobody predicted the correct map again this year. Crazy how that happens now, in a time where the existence of the internet means thousands and thousands of people can make their own predictions.

[Skill and Chance]

Wow Biden only has Clinton's margin in the PV now.  And while that will go up a bit, CA actually gets better for Trump with each update.

[Ancestral Republican]

Why does it matter if Biden wins?   He's going to be a do nothing lame duck with an R Senate and a 6-3 Supreme court.

idk, so we don't have a wannabe fascist dictator as our leader?

😎😎 There won't be a freakin' Cheeto in the got dang White House. #ByeDon

[Ljube]

Why does it matter if Biden wins?   He's going to be a do nothing lame duck with an R Senate and a 6-3 Supreme court.

A Republican Senate may actually help Biden govern in a more moderate way and enact sane Democratic policies supported by the majority of the people.

[Ferguson97]

I think we're going to end up with this.

Meme map. What would even be the consensus here if Democrats win Georgia and the rust belt, but lose AZ/NV?

[wbrocks67]

It appears we are still missing nearly 20% of Kalamazoo in MI, as well, where Biden is leading by 10

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

PA lead drops again to 6.6%...

[Kalimantan]

Why does it matter if Biden wins?   He's going to be a do nothing lame duck with an R Senate and a 6-3 Supreme court.

A Republican Senate may actually help Biden govern in a more moderate way and enact sane Democratic policies supported by the majority of the people.

Why, where's McConnell going?

[Non Swing Voter]

It would be good if Biden wins both PA and AZ (and NV for that matter) because it will discourage Trump from continuing frivolous litigation.  Or at least Fox and the GOP would push back I think.

[BudgieForce]

I think we're going to end up with this.

Meme map. What would even be the consensus here if Democrats win Georgia and the rust belt, but lose AZ/NV?

I'm not sure how many times I can post about D-leaning mail in ballots needing to be counted in Clark County. But people keep ignoring it.