2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/1321568439891234816?s=20

Ohio, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Florida, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

Wow. This is incredibly smart.

[wbrocks67]

Good news for Biden out of Broward. He's going there tomorrow too. Needs to turbocharge turnout there.

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/1321579879268311040

[wbrocks67]

It really feels like Ralston knows that the #s are going to be a little funky for Dems depending on the mail rate/processed amount for that specific day, and he's using that to his advantage to stoke his horse race narrative right now

[wbrocks67]

So right now, Dems have nearly the same lead with 3.9mil cast versus the end of 2016 EV, which was only 3.2mil cast. Again, the fact that their at nearly parity (285K vs 304K) with 700K more votes in, and UNAs are likely breaking Biden this year, I'd say again that NC is looking pretty good for Dems so far.

What day is the last for NC early voting?

The electorate is also looking less white (so far)
Total 2016 NC exit poll: 70% white/30% non-white (+40 white)
2020 EV so far: 66% white/34% non-white (+32 white)

[wbrocks67]

FLORIDA
Dems 2,991,015 (40.5%)
Reps 2,784,101 (37.7%)
Other 1,604,955 (21.7%)
= 7,380,071

Dems still have a +207K lead. Was wondering why there weren't many doomer posts yesterday as there were before - it appears Dems had a better day yesterday than they've had so far this week.

[wbrocks67]

PENNSYLVANIA
34.6% of 2016 turnout

Dems 1,429,082 (67.6%)
Reps 466,954 (22.1%)
Other 216,959 (10.3%)
= 2,112,995

Dems return rate is 73.4%, Reps only 59.3%. Dem lead is now closing in on a million @ +962K. It was +928K yesterday.

[wbrocks67]

Biden is doomed
https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1321660796745764864?s=19

This article is such a hot mess and so wrong I dont even know where to start.

[wbrocks67]

it's an opinion piece first of all

The data it's using to back it up isn't being used in the right context. It's acting as if the nationwide polling on when Dems and Reps are voting is the same for every individual state, which it's not.

[wbrocks67]

hot take: the reason SCOTUS is sort of leaving the PA case open is because Dems have returned their ballots at such a high rate and are so educated on the issue that the majority of late ballots might actually be REPUBLICAN.

You're probably right. Dems are still severely lagging among ballot returns and at this rate, will likely have a higher % outstanding after election day than Ds.

[wbrocks67]

Not surprised Biden is headed to Tampa and Broward today since those two spots really seem to be surging in voting right now for Dems.

[wbrocks67]

Early voting today has been canceled or delayed in at least 16 Georgia counties due to widespread power outages from Tropical Storm Zeta.

https://www.ajc.com/news/power-outages-delay-early-voting-in-metro-atlanta/G5GD22MWL5G6DMLEKJZC3BYCW4/

These types of things are why it's always good to have votes banked already. You never know what's going to happen. Trump leaving his voters to election day strategy never made any strategic sense.

[wbrocks67]

Reps have quite a bit of ground to make up in IA. Just purely D/R, Ds have a +131K advantage with 93% and 91% of ballots returned.

[wbrocks67]

Maricopa County, AZ update with 5 days to go

Reps 524,699 (37.0%)
Dems 523,106 (36.9%)
Other 369,219 (26.1%)
= 1,417,024

2016 total EV:
Reps 421,566 (41.1%)
Dems 327,546 (31.9%)
Other 276,591 (27.0%)
= 1,025,703

[wbrocks67]

Arizona at 80% of 2016 turnout and Dems still have a +3% lead. If they're killing it with Indies, then things are looking very good for Biden here.

ARIZONA (80.4% of 2016 turnout)
Dems 833,154 (38.9%)
Reps 768,386 (35.9%)
Other 538,819 (25.2%)
= 2,140,359

Dems at 70.4% return rate, Reps at 64.0%

[wbrocks67]

NC passes 4 million.

[wbrocks67]

Ah, I thought there was one more Souls to the Polls on Sunday for GA. Guess tomorrow will have massive turnout.

Isn't most in person voting done in FL by Saturday? With a lot of Dem-leaning places open Sunday? If that's the case, Dems may still be up like ~100K before Sunday then, where they would likely expand their lead I would think

[wbrocks67]

Some good news about Pennsylvania. Late last night there was some fear that tons of counties in PA weren't going to start counting mail in ballots until Wednesday. As of right now they are a minority and the lean to the right. The vast majority of populated areas will start counting mail ballots on Election Day, most of them starting at 7:00 AM.

https://twitter.com/4st8/status/1321872541519093762?s=20

Which of those orange counties will start at 7AM, and which will wait until polls close? That could make a big difference on early results.

I know Philadelphia and the 4 suburban counties are starting at 7:00 AM in the morning and they are not stopping until all of the ballots are counted. Allegheny is also starting at 7:00 AM and I think they are going to count all night as well. Blair, Dauphin, Lehigh, Northampton, and York have also confirmed they are starting at 7:00 AM. Lebanon is starting only a half hour later at 7:30 AM.

Here is a spreadsheet with the information that's been made available

Given that, you could even end up with a "blue mirage" if places like the SE counties finish counting absentees by the close of polls and report them first.

Might be wishful thinking but it would be hilarious and welcomed if this all ended up in such a way that PA reports very similar to how it normally does.

Yeah, all of the SEPA counties are starting and not stopping at 7am so it's quite possible that we get a lot of the good data when polls close.

[wbrocks67]

isn't turnout pretty high in Detroit already? 50% seems really low

[wbrocks67]

45 minutes before polls close and Williamson County, TX is at around 10,200 in-person votes. Another 260 votes and this will be their best voting day since Friday (Even before we get updated mail totals)

It seems likely TX will pass 9 million with tomorrows update?

[wbrocks67]

Not gonna lie, the number of unreturned ballots in states like PA, WI, and FL is unsettling.

PA was nearly at 70% return rate statewide yesterday. And we still have 4-5 days left for ballots to get there or be dropped off at drop boxes. I would imagine nearly 90% are returned by election day. How is that unsettling?

[wbrocks67]

Why are Democrats freaking out so much about turnout in Miami Dade specifically?  The turnout doesn't look way out of whack.  Though the Republican turnout looks a bit elevated there.

Well, they are running out of time. Miami-Dade is up to 808,524 votes, a little over a 150,000 votes away from their total 2016 total. Maybe the NPAs are stronger?

This seems like a major thing that people aren't really paying attention to. They're just assuming that NPA are going to vote the same as 2016 or something. If Dems end up with a lead in party ID than I'd think that's very good for them - since Indies appear to really be leaning Biden this time. But people keep ignoring NPAs and just going off of D/R

[wbrocks67]

Wait, so in ballots returned 5 days out in 2016 in FL, when it was only 4.4 million, Rs had a +0.39% lead? And now in 2020, with 7-8 million votes cast early, Ds have a +2/3% lead - and people are freaking out? Huh?

We're going to have 8 million votes cast by the end, and it's increasingly looking like Ds will maintain an edge. That's with major cannibalization. And NPAs likely breaking Biden. FL actually kinda looks better than I might have assumed, I was scared that Rs may take over by the end, but it doesn't appear that will happen.

[wbrocks67]

Was curious about NV. Day before election, the EV was 629K, with Ds at 41.4% (261K) and Rs at 37.9% (238K), D advantage +3.5

Right now we’re at 925K voted, with Ds at 40.4% (373K) and Rs at 36.1% (334K). D advantage +4.3.

So 300K more have voted and Ds advantage is a bit bigger. And that's not taking into account Indies. Also, early voting ends today (?) while mail ballots will continue, so I would expect D margin to grow since Rs are mostly voting in person.

[wbrocks67]

Was curious about NV. Day before election, the EV was 629K, with Ds at 41.4% (261K) and Rs at 37.9% (238K), D advantage +3.5

Right now we’re at 925K voted, with Ds at 40.4% (373K) and Rs at 36.1% (334K). D advantage +4.3.

So 300K more have voted and Ds advantage is a bit bigger. And that's not taking into account Indies. Also, early voting ends today (?) while mail ballots will continue, so I would expect D margin to grow since Rs are mostly voting in person.

Nevada numbers are better for Dems than in 2016. That is not the question. The question is how much better.

The margin in Nevada tends to be similar to the overall popular vote margin.

Really depends on how NPA is shaking out.

[wbrocks67]

What day is last day of NC early vote?

Also, wow. NC at 86% of 2016 turnout.