LA 2019 Gov Race: Gov John Bel Edwards wins a 2nd term (user search)
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  LA 2019 Gov Race: Gov John Bel Edwards wins a 2nd term (search mode)
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Author Topic: LA 2019 Gov Race: Gov John Bel Edwards wins a 2nd term  (Read 46883 times)
KaiserDave
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,665
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -5.39

P
« on: October 11, 2019, 03:50:59 PM »
Quote from: Atlas: Consistently Wrong on October 11, 2019, 03:46:02 PM
Quote from: Bernie Cultists Don't Understand Polling on October 10, 2019, 11:38:26 PM
What do you mean "at least put up a good fight"? Aren't you certain of his victory?

Trump's gonna win, sure, but unseating JBE shows that he'd be willing to put in the hard work to go an extra mile. The Democrats won't be win the White House for quite a long while.

You are truly the wisest among us.
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KaiserDave
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,665
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -5.39

P
« Reply #1 on: October 12, 2019, 12:36:08 PM »
« Edited: October 12, 2019, 12:55:33 PM by KaiserDave »
Edwards will fall BARELY short of winning outright tonight.
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KaiserDave
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,665
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -5.39

P
« Reply #2 on: October 12, 2019, 06:53:59 PM »
Everyone I saw a black person today!!! Safe D!

-

Yeah I used to get overstressed by those as well.
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KaiserDave
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,665
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -5.39

P
« Reply #3 on: October 12, 2019, 08:04:06 PM »
Very annoyed no stations are covering.
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KaiserDave
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,665
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -5.39

P
« Reply #4 on: October 12, 2019, 08:04:31 PM »
That's it, let's start AtlasTV. That way everyone can lose brain cells together!
Logged
KaiserDave
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,665
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -5.39

P
« Reply #5 on: October 12, 2019, 08:11:23 PM »
Clearly early vote points to Safe R! I am 100% sure of my obvious conclusion!
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KaiserDave
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,665
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -5.39

P
« Reply #6 on: October 12, 2019, 08:15:42 PM »
Didn't Red Eagle say Oregon isn't safe. Lol.
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KaiserDave
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,665
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -5.39

P
« Reply #7 on: October 12, 2019, 08:18:08 PM »
Yawn, barely anything is in.
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KaiserDave
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,665
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -5.39

P
« Reply #8 on: October 12, 2019, 08:29:08 PM »
Couvillon says early vote is bad for JBE.
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KaiserDave
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,665
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -5.39

P
« Reply #9 on: October 12, 2019, 08:45:54 PM »
What!!!! 2% of results isn't representative of the election, SHOCKING.
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KaiserDave
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,665
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -5.39

P
« Reply #10 on: October 12, 2019, 08:47:01 PM »
Just based on counties, the map is pretty good for JBE. But it's early.
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KaiserDave
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,665
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -5.39

P
« Reply #11 on: October 12, 2019, 09:02:07 PM »
With 25% in I'd say JBE is well positioned to get 50%, but its far from certain or likely-yet.
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KaiserDave
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,665
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -5.39

P
« Reply #12 on: October 12, 2019, 09:09:19 PM »
Assuming Edwards fails to crack 50%, who's a weaker candidate? Rispone or Abraham?
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KaiserDave
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,665
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -5.39

P
« Reply #13 on: October 12, 2019, 09:14:26 PM »
I know we're talking about performing/underperforming in certain counties, and that's all well and good. But I think what's most interesting is that Edwards is hovering around 46% with 300 precincts left in New Orleans.
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KaiserDave
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,665
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -5.39

P
« Reply #14 on: October 12, 2019, 09:21:05 PM »
New Orleans dumps like 50 precincts, JBE back above 46.
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KaiserDave
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,665
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -5.39

P
« Reply #15 on: October 12, 2019, 09:24:52 PM »
If I had to guess, JBE finishes just below 50. Around 47/48. Maybe 49.
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KaiserDave
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,665
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -5.39

P
« Reply #16 on: October 12, 2019, 09:26:00 PM »
Is it just me or does the outstanding vote almost exclusively come out of the big cities?
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KaiserDave
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,665
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -5.39

P
« Reply #17 on: October 12, 2019, 09:31:03 PM »
Quote from: Atlas: Consistently Wrong on October 12, 2019, 09:28:31 PM
wow, he UNDERPERFORMED Hillary in Richland, which is fully in

These are the obvious results of polarization, and should not be used to make conclusions about a race that JBE is obviously overperforming Hilldawg in.
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KaiserDave
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,665
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -5.39

P
« Reply #18 on: October 12, 2019, 09:37:29 PM »
Quote from: Oryxslayer on October 12, 2019, 09:35:05 PM
Quote from: jaichind on October 12, 2019, 09:30:22 PM
A bunch of East Baton Rough votes came in ... Did not help Edwards as much as I thought it would

Mostly the GOP side of the city. Note whats still out, and how it relates to the urban core, or the  more southern university precincts.

 

Would you call it JBE vs Rispone yet or can this still end tonight?
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KaiserDave
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,665
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -5.39

P
« Reply #19 on: October 12, 2019, 09:46:09 PM »
Quote from: Oryxslayer on October 12, 2019, 09:45:01 PM
Quote from: KaiserDave on October 12, 2019, 09:37:29 PM
Quote from: Oryxslayer on October 12, 2019, 09:35:05 PM
Quote from: jaichind on October 12, 2019, 09:30:22 PM
A bunch of East Baton Rough votes came in ... Did not help Edwards as much as I thought it would

Mostly the GOP side of the city. Note whats still out, and how it relates to the urban core, or the  more southern university precincts.

 

Would you call it JBE vs Rispone yet or can this still end tonight?

JBE north of 47% I say is certain. Probably won't crack 49%. DDHQ has called it as a runoff. Which honestly is good for him since he is beating his polling.

How strong implications does JBE north of 47% have for the runoff?
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KaiserDave
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,665
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -5.39

P
« Reply #20 on: October 12, 2019, 09:57:08 PM »
I say Tilt D in the runoff, but it wouldn't be surprising in the slightest if Republicans run away with this.

Pity.

Luckily King Phil still waves the standard of the independent thinker up north.
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KaiserDave
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,665
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -5.39

P
« Reply #21 on: October 12, 2019, 10:00:42 PM »
Quote from: Calthrina950 on October 12, 2019, 09:59:53 PM
Quote from: KaiserDave on October 12, 2019, 09:57:08 PM
I say Tilt D in the runoff, but it wouldn't be surprising in the slightest if Republicans run away with this.

Pity.

Luckily King Phil still waves the standard of the independent thinker up north.

Don't forget about Baker and Hogan. They sailed to victory last year, but Edwards is going to have to fight just to get a bare majority!

Quote from: Mondale on October 12, 2019, 09:58:46 PM
How can it be so close? Edwards is pro-life

Edwards is a communist, in the view of many Louisianians. All they see is the D after his name, and they care about nothing else.

Damn shame.
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KaiserDave
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,665
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -5.39

P
« Reply #22 on: October 12, 2019, 10:02:04 PM »
I think if JBE did veto the abortion bills he'd probably be noticeably lower 44-45ish. It may not help to be pro life in his position, but it does hurt to be pro choice.
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KaiserDave
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,665
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -5.39

P
« Reply #23 on: October 12, 2019, 10:02:23 PM »
Quote from: TWTown on October 12, 2019, 10:01:39 PM
I think people are jumping the gun here. 2015 saw the GOP carry 57% of the vote and JBE still carried out a sizable win.

I kinda agree, I do think people are overreacting. But it's 2019 now.
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KaiserDave
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,665
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -5.39

P
« Reply #24 on: October 12, 2019, 10:08:35 PM »
Ya'll are forgetting Phil. The true King and legitimate moderate.
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