LA 2019 Gov Race: Gov John Bel Edwards wins a 2nd term

[I Can Now Die Happy]

Around 15 minutes ago I was saying that I predicted that JBE would get around 48% statewide, but...right now I'm wondering if he'll get lower than that.

He barely outperformed Hillary in Caldwell which is fully in (outperformed by 5%, he needs to outpeform my around 11.5% statewide)

In some areas he's outpeforming Hillary by over 11.5% but not in enough areas

[Xing]

Based on what we have to far, I think Edwards is going to end up pretty close to 50% in either direction, as I expected. We might not know for sure tonight. Either way, it's looking very bad for Abraham, since he was several points ahead of Rispone, but he's fallen a couple points behind now.

[IceSpear]

It does look like Trends Are VERY Real down in the Bayou tonight’s as JBE is doing better than in 2015 across the suburbs but much worse in the rurals

Wow, a Democrat during better in the suburbs and much worse in the rurals. What an unprecedented event in the modern political era. This one will go down in the history books.

[KaiserDave]

I know we're talking about performing/underperforming in certain counties, and that's all well and good. But I think what's most interesting is that Edwards is hovering around 46% with 300 precincts left in New Orleans.

[TWTown]

Bel drops below 46% and is at 45.7%. Orleans, Jefferson and East Baton Rouge parishes still have less then half of their precincts reporting though.

[Politician]

Bel drops below 46% and is at 45.7%. Orleans, Jefferson and East Baton Rouge parishes still have less then half of their precincts reporting though.

Uh oh, JBE in disarray! Safe R

[Oryxslayer]

NYT is just playing catch-up to the SOS site it seems.
Bel is holding steady at 46% with a decent amount of New Orleans ready to go.

JBE has to be optimistic right now. Of the three big 'true' (national) Dem parishes in the state:  Caddo, EBR, and Orleans, only EBR is keeping pace with the states count. Caddo has no EV and barely and precincts, and Orleans has few precincts. And while EBR has a lot of precincts, it's mostly the more mixed East/Southeast - very little of the Uber-blue urban core.

[Pericles]

In 2015, JBE got 39.9% in the jungle primary, so he needs to overperform that by 10.1% to avoid a runoff. Keep that benchmark in mind.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

WNN PROJECTIONS:

Commissioner of -- Insurance
 
2000 of 3934 precincts reporting - 51%
absentee reporting - 58 of 64 parishes   Votes
368,234   James J. "Jim" Donelon (REP)  54%
315,507   "Tim" Temple (REP)  46%
Total: 683,741
CA NO. 1 (ACT 444 - HB 234) -- Tax Exemptions for Outer Continental Shelf
 
2000 of 3934 precincts reporting - 51%
absentee reporting - 58 of 64 parishes   Votes
327,171   YES  47%
371,920   NO  53%
Total: 699,091


Amendment 2 and Gov are uncalled

[TWTown]

NYT is just playing catch-up to the SOS site it seems.
Bel is holding steady at 46% with a decent amount of New Orleans ready to go.

JBE has to be optimistic right now. Of the three real Dem parishes in the state:  Caddo, EBR, and Orleans, only EBR is keeping pace with the states count. Caddo has no EV and barely and precincts, and Orleans has few precincts. And while EBR has a lot of precincts, it's mostly the more mixed East/Southeast - very little of the Uber-blue urban core.

Absolutely, it looks like almost half of the vote is in and he’s holding just short of a majority with most of his strongpoints still ready to dump.

[Bidenworth2020]

I think JBE will come close, but not absurdly close, to 50. We still have Livingston, St. Tammany, etc.

[KaiserDave]

New Orleans dumps like 50 precincts, JBE back above 46.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

It does look like Trends Are VERY Real down in the Bayou tonight’s as JBE is doing better than in 2015 across the suburbs but much worse in the rurals

Wow, a Democrat during better in the suburbs and much worse in the rurals. What an unprecedented event in the modern political era. This one will go down in the history books.

But here is how IA-04 is likelier to flip than TX-10...

[TWTown]

JBE is moving back up (now at 46.1%). The cause seems to be a drop of NO Precincts and a handful of Jefferson precincts. Both parishes still have a lot more of their precincts to go.

[Oryxslayer]

JBE moved back down because livingston and lafayette released a bunch of GOP turf. Lafayette is nearly done, and JBE will probably get a plurality in a county that has been red since forever.

[Old Man Willow]

Awful results for JBE.

[TWTown]

JBE is moving back up (now at 46.1%). The cause seems to be a drop of NO Precincts and a handful of Jefferson precincts. Both parishes still have a lot more of their precincts to go.

And as I post this, Rispone carries Livingstone Parish and drops JBE below 46% again.

[KaiserDave]

If I had to guess, JBE finishes just below 50. Around 47/48. Maybe 49.

[BP🌹]

JBE is moving back up (now at 46.1%). The cause seems to be a drop of NO Precincts and a handful of Jefferson precincts. Both parishes still have a lot more of their precincts to go.

That won't be enough. It's going to a runoff.

[KaiserDave]

Is it just me or does the outstanding vote almost exclusively come out of the big cities?

[Zaybay]

Is it just me or does the outstanding vote almost exclusively come out of the big cities?

No, its not just you, thats the case currently.

[I Can Now Die Happy]

wow, he UNDERPERFORMED Hillary in Richland, which is fully in

[BP🌹]

wow, he UNDERPERFORMED Hillary in Richland, which is fully in

That seems to be the other case in other northern parishes as well like Morehouse.

[Politician]

wow, he UNDERPERFORMED Hillary in Richland, which is fully in

That seems to be the other case in other northern parishes as well like Morehouse.

Abraham had appeal in his own district maybe?

[jaichind]

A bunch of East Baton Rough votes came in ... Did not help Edwards as much as I thought it would