NV Caucus Results Thread (doors close at 2 CT) (user search)
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  NV Caucus Results Thread (doors close at 2 CT) (search mode)
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Author Topic: NV Caucus Results Thread (doors close at 2 CT)  (Read 50159 times)
Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 7,892
« on: February 22, 2020, 12:50:12 AM »
Let me be the first to congratulate Bernie Sanders.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 7,892
« Reply #1 on: February 22, 2020, 01:09:38 PM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on February 22, 2020, 12:28:54 PM


Sounds like a good thing for Sanders. Henderson should be prime Buttigieg/"moderate" territory, at least the more white/southern parts of it.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 7,892
« Reply #2 on: February 22, 2020, 01:12:43 PM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on February 22, 2020, 01:10:56 PM
Quote from: 👁️👁️ on February 22, 2020, 01:09:38 PM
Quote from: Tender Branson on February 22, 2020, 12:28:54 PM


Sounds like a good thing for Sanders. Henderson should be prime Buttigieg/"moderate" territory, at least the more white/southern parts of it.

It’s raining in all of Las Vegas ...

Yes, but it said it was coming down "hard" in Henderson. Perhaps the rain is not as heavy in the more Bernie-friendly areas. I don't know, just saying that it might be since we don't have anecdotal reports from there. Although I suppose we could look at the radar.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/nevada/weather-radar
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,892
« Reply #3 on: February 22, 2020, 01:19:04 PM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on February 22, 2020, 01:14:55 PM
Already large crowds of people everywhere and the doors have just opened for check-in:



Uh-oh, I see 1 Biden and 1 Pete. That is all the campaign paraphernalia. Not good, no Bernie visible.

On the other hand, it looks like a lot of youngs are there, maybe they are all Bernie supporters.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,892
« Reply #4 on: February 22, 2020, 01:23:06 PM »
Lots of youngs at Rancho High School, looks good for Bernie (also Bernie paraphernalia visible).
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,892
« Reply #5 on: February 22, 2020, 01:29:06 PM »
Casino caucus sight, also looks like youngs so far:



Also looks pretty good for youngs, with maybe a few middle aged. No olds that I can see, so that is good. There is a distinct lack of olds in most of these:



Looks like more of a mix here, youngs, some middle aged, and there are a few olds walking by even (in video). Ick.



Also somewhat mixed in Reno, but quite a few youngs, not that many clear olds:
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,892
« Reply #6 on: February 22, 2020, 01:32:03 PM »
Quote from: Mehmentum on February 22, 2020, 01:15:26 PM
Differential turnout due to weather doesn't actually matter for SDEs though, right?  If a precinct has lower turnout it'll still give the same number of SDEs, right?

That is true. I guess the effect of hypothetical lower turnout in precincts with heavier rain would be to make the early vote in those precincts relatively more important. No idea who that would help/hurt though.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,892
« Reply #7 on: February 22, 2020, 01:36:48 PM »


High turnout, mixed ages but definitely solid young turnout it looks like. 1 Old is so tired and worn out that he is sitting at a table rather than standing though, not a good sign, that is probably a Klobuchar voter.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,892
« Reply #8 on: February 22, 2020, 01:42:02 PM »
Quote from: Mehmentum on February 22, 2020, 01:39:19 PM
Is it possible that the early vote was disproportionately old, leaving caucus day mostly young?  There was that Emerson poll that had Buttigieg doing well with the early vote and Sanders crushing it on caucus day.

Could well be. Hopefully not too many of the youngs are put off by the rain. So if Bernie loses via the early vote but wins on caucus day (with lower turnout), we all know to blame the rain.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,892
« Reply #9 on: February 22, 2020, 01:50:40 PM »
Bernie landslide incoming, look at that beard:
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,892
« Reply #10 on: February 22, 2020, 01:54:04 PM »
Youngs registering to vote, probably mostly for Sanders, lots of Hispanics:
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,892
« Reply #11 on: February 22, 2020, 01:56:25 PM »
As a counterpoint, this one looks horrible, so many olds I see. I think the ones in the background may be youngs mostly, but it is like 5 olds in the front, way too many for comfort:
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,892
« Reply #12 on: February 22, 2020, 01:59:43 PM »
Olds for Steyer. This is the good thing about the Old vote, it is going to be split and wasted partially on pointless candidates like Steyer:
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,892
« Reply #13 on: February 22, 2020, 02:05:24 PM »
Promising, lots of youngs. There are even some Klobuchar youngs, though I guess those are probably her staff, not actual voters:





Castro trying to persuade some Bernie Bros:



This one is like unanimous youngs, even youngs standing out in the rain:



Reporter says lots of Bernie:
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,892
« Reply #14 on: February 22, 2020, 02:22:50 PM »
Lots of youngs (non-white/Hispanic):
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,892
« Reply #15 on: February 22, 2020, 02:29:24 PM »
Regardless of the results, this is some good news for Dems in general. NV is not going to vote for Trump in the General:
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,892
« Reply #16 on: February 22, 2020, 02:47:22 PM »
Quote from: Oryxslayer on February 22, 2020, 02:42:46 PM
Quote from: Oryxslayer on February 22, 2020, 02:33:06 PM
Quote from: Oryxslayer on February 22, 2020, 02:23:29 PM
Reminder as we get close to the entrance poll period, the entrance poll could be rather far off from the final results depending on whether the early vote was incorporated into it's projections.

I know I'm fighting against a title wave here, but seriously,  let's try and put some breaks to on the entrance poll hype train, since we so far have heard nothing about the early vote in regards to the entrance poll.

MSNBC (Steve Kornacki) said the entrance poll results they had so far were ONLY early vote.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,892
« Reply #17 on: February 22, 2020, 02:55:48 PM »
Bernie wins random precinct in a landslide:
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,892
« Reply #18 on: February 22, 2020, 03:01:25 PM »
Looks like lots of (noticeably diverse) Bernie supporters gathered together in this precinct getting ready to vote:
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,892
« Reply #19 on: February 22, 2020, 03:02:05 PM »
MSNBC says "too early to call but Bernie has a significant lead"
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,892
« Reply #20 on: February 22, 2020, 03:03:23 PM »
wow, entrance poll is a Bernie landslide. If the results are like that, he is indeed the nominee.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,892
« Reply #21 on: February 22, 2020, 03:06:19 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on February 22, 2020, 03:04:45 PM
Quote from: 👁️👁️ on February 22, 2020, 03:03:23 PM
wow, entrance poll is a Bernie landslide. If the results are like that, he is indeed the nominee has a nice lead after three states have voted.

FTFY

Tongue
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,892
« Reply #22 on: February 22, 2020, 03:08:37 PM »
Kornacki is still talking about it as though the exit polls so far are ONLY early vote. He said it will be interesting to see how it changes when they get in same-day data.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,892
« Reply #23 on: February 22, 2020, 03:10:20 PM »
Bernie is winning every age group other than 65+ in the entrance poll.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,892
« Reply #24 on: February 22, 2020, 03:12:41 PM »
Bernie is also winning moderate/conservatives with 23% to 22% for Biden and 20% for Buttigieg.

So I guess Bernie is the "moderate lane" candidate.

Bernie is also winning ALL educational groups.
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