Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[jamestroll]

https://twitter.com/TerryMcAuliffe/status/1454624409248051200

Oh look... T-mac - maybe you should have put this in your ads dumb dumb?

He probably wont win but I am hoping and thinking dems win down ballot.

[jamestroll]

If Youngkin wins, I don't think it means that Virginia is becoming a purple state in federal elections again. Candidates can and do win governorships in states that are otherwise hostile to their party.

It'll be similar to Maryland in 2014, where Hogan won because of a favorable national environment, a strong campaign on his part and a lazy campaign by his opponent.

A key feature of Republicans gubernatorial candidates winning in safe blue states or Democratic ones winning in safe red states is that the result of the gubernatorial contest is usually a clear exception among the statewide and legislature races that cycle. All of the other statewide elections and state legislative contests are usually still landslide-level blowouts for the dominant party (see MA or MD in 2018, LA or KY in 2019).

Right now, the polls are suggesting that the Lt. Gov and AG races in VA are also very close, and control of the general assembly is essentially a tossup. These are not signs that VA has become a safe blue state.

I have brought that up as well but I am inclined to doubt that Virginia would become a safe GOP either ..

But it wouldn't look good for Democrats if there is a GOP sweep in VA in 2021, 2022 and 2023.. and it may bring the GOP to contest the state in 2024.

[jamestroll]

Pretty funny I am more optimistic on Tmac and the VA Dem ticket then most now. While many on election twitter have declared it a GOP state.

[jamestroll]

https://twitter.com/TheGoodLiars/status/1455243036795998212

Everything about this is insane obviously, but imagine with all of the things going on right now - and how media claims everyday people are so worried about inflation and rising gas prices, etc. - that this man truly thinks the most PRESSING issue of the entire state of Virginia is CRT.

This is the epitome of how mindbogglingly stupid American politics has become. CRT is the most important issue hands down, but also, what is CRT? The reason it's so important is because they were told that it was the most important, and they integrated that into their belief system, which is just a jumbled mess of a few things they've grown to dislike through experience, many, many more things they've been told to dislike. This old man must really be a team player and just wants to make sure he is on record hating all the same thing his team hates.

Trumpkin is essentially going to win over issues that dont exist.. CRT.. and pandemic restrictions.

[jamestroll]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KevinDaleyDC/status/1455292483953467401

I told yall this would happen and no it is not about ing Afghanistan like you said. lmaoo

but this does not mean that  Nova will become a GOP strong hold again. This is not the 1990s anymore.

It just means 2012 voting patterns in Nova may be more valid (very dem instead of titanium dem) and will make it very hard but not impossible for dems to win statewide going forward unless they get more wwc vote back.

[jamestroll]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KevinDaleyDC/status/1455292483953467401

I told yall this would happen and no it is not about ing Afghanistan like you said. lmaoo

but this does not mean that  Nova will become a GOP strong hold again. This is not the 1990s anymore.

It just means 2012 voting patterns in Nova may be more valid (very dem instead of titanium dem) and will make it very hard but not impossible for dems to win statewide going forward unless they get more wwc vote back.

The problem is, the GOP still lost the state even with those numbers.

You'll need Gillespie 2014 sorta numbers up there if you want to win as a Republican.

OMG.......... you misssed my point.

let me explain

BACK IN THE 2010S DECADE AND 2000S RURAL DEMOCRATS DID RESPECTABLE IN VIRGINIA. TMAC 2013 OR WARNER 2014 MARGINS IN NOVA IS NOT MATHEMATICALLY ENOUGH TO COUNTER THE REST OF THE STATE ANYMORE. ESPECIALLY WITH WHAT IS LOOMING IN HAMPTON ROADS AND HOW RURAL VA HAS STAYED PRETTY MUCH TRUMP NUMBERS!

[jamestroll]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KevinDaleyDC/status/1455292483953467401

Holy sh**t! 14 points better in Loudan thank Trump!

it doesnt mean loudoun will become a gop stronghold again lmao....

according to this tmac still wins it by 8 to 12 points.

and trumpkin probably over performs it.

my rating for loudoun: solid dem overall.

[jamestroll]

but anyway I don't think the gop sweeps tomorrow but the downballot races are incredibly hard to predict.

but loudoun wont be a gop county just some morons are implying

[jamestroll]

even in 2016 and 2020.. the rural vote in VA was more dem than you would expect. other wise Spanberger couldnt have won..

and Trump missouir margins in mrural  virginia would have handeed him tjhe state in 2016

[jamestroll]

even in 2016 and 2020.. the rural vote in VA was more dem than you would expect. other wise Spanberger couldnt have won..

and Trump missouir margins in mrural  virginia would have handeed him tjhe state in 2016

There’s a lot more black people in rural Virginia than people realize which is why 85-15 margins don’t happen outside of SW Virginia.

Yes I know that. I am not stupid.

But there still room to grow for the VA gop in rural VA

BUT I AM GOING TO FIGHT AGAINST THE ELECTION TWITTER PEOPLE WHO SAY LOUDOUN WILL BE A GOP COUNTY

EVEN IF TRUMPKIN UPSETS THERE TOMORROW ITS OBVIOUSLY A ONE OFF

[jamestroll]

damn it. loudoun will not be a gop county

[jamestroll]

you will see jimmie crazier then I have EVER been if I see one more Tweet that Nova will be a gop region.

this is a gubernatorial race for christ sake

[jamestroll]

even in 2016 and 2020.. the rural vote in VA was more dem than you would expect. other wise Spanberger couldnt have won..

and Trump missouir margins in mrural  virginia would have handeed him tjhe state in 2016

There’s a lot more black people in rural Virginia than people realize which is why 85-15 margins don’t happen outside of SW Virginia.

Still, the rural Black population is declining pretty quickly in Southside VA and northern NC. iirc the VA House seat most likely to flip used to be majority Black and is centered in Emporia. The current representative is a Black woman but she will probably lose to a white guy.

that is correct

[jamestroll]

If yall followed hotlinejosh on twitter you would have seen this race was close back in January

[jamestroll]

Virginia Democrats leaning state

Michigan swing state

California solid dem

Deal with it!

[jamestroll]

Win or lose i am proud I was voter 3 in fairfax county on September 17th

[jamestroll]

Virginia has very few pandemic restrictions.. and I felt horrible last January when I was frequented gyms, went to restaurants with co-workers etc while kids had to learn via zoom.

I raged about it all over social media. Perhaps that's why I was frequented canvassed by the trumpkin campaign

[jamestroll]

Chap Peterson is my state senator. I mostly like him

[jamestroll]

https://twitter.com/RealAmerican_2/status/1455366223903002628?s=20

I am not 100% discounting it but it is very unlikely. 2019 results suggest that Loudoun may be willing to re-elect incumbent Republicans but Idk if it will be going GOP in a state level race. We shall see.

90% Tmac wins it but I won't 100% discount it.

The Nova jurisdictions to watch are Manassas and Manassas Park. Large hispanic populations as well. Also, Manassas is the literal the reason Prince William County has a Republican Sheriff still.

[jamestroll]

to be fair to the trumpkin will win loudoun county people:

https://www.vpap.org/electionresults/20191105/local/loudoun-county-va/

they did split the ballot  a lot in 2019

[jamestroll]

Let's have fun today!

[jamestroll]

Time to move to

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=468576.0

Let's have fun arguing there but be civil!

[jamestroll]

https://twitter.com/WachsmannHD75/status/1453155695315009551

Let's see if HD-75 is the most likely GOP pick up of the night. If it is a solid pick up early in the night that bolds bad for the state Democrats as black turn out is likely very poor.

[jamestroll]

As I stated on the other thread,

the jurisdictions to watch in Nova are Manassas and Manassas Park. If Trumpkin and the GOP are really regaining all the suburbanites back and Hispanics are trending heavily Republican, these would be the jurisdictions to watch.

[jamestroll]

When Fairfax County releases their early vote election results tomorrow.. remember these things:


1) My vote will be among the first released with the batch yay!

2) Early voting is obviously less sensitive to momentum but let's see if Tmac is running behind Ayala and Herring in the early vote.

3) If Herring is not meeting his bench mark in Fairfax County, it will be a terrible night for the Democrats.