Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[jamestroll]

Problem for VA GOP is that they are extremely unlikely to win either Loudoun or Henrico counties. A winning GOP map would not include either of those jurisdictions.

The GOP basically has to get rural MO style margins all across rural Virginia to win statewide.

While "even swing" is never a real thing that happens, for fun here is how an R victory looks in VA under such an even swing.



(click to enlarge)

Indeed, the GOP doesn't even need to come close in any of those. While even swing is unrealistic, cutting dems to the low-mid 50s would in those counties would be more than enough. Of course, the GOP also does need north Korean margins out of the rural areas.

The GOP does need to win some suburban counties  outright though, most notably: Virginia Beach, Chesapeake, Stafford and Chseterfield

Honestly, the Dem vote is insanely concentrated into just a handful of jurisdictions. Even under even swing, if for some bizarre reason the GOP managed a 10 point victory, they'd be cutting dems to just like 4 counties lol

Really good job there! I was trying to find this post!

[jamestroll]

The GOP can carry Virginia in 2024 but I am not as confident or adamant about it as the 2021 gubernatorial election

[jamestroll]

This thread and the election was certainly fun.

Right as Joe Biden won in November 2020, I immediately saw an opening for the GOP to win Virginia in 2021.

My co workers and neighbors were in a Nova bubble and could not see a Republican winning statewide. They do not even have to live among high crime rates, inflation was not as noticeable in the Nova region due to already high cost of living, they did not under draconian measures of other Democratic ran localities during covid. So they were literally in a bubble.

What I saw was a state with a very large rural and southern cultured population, with Joe Biden doing actually relatively in the southern part of the state! A large part of the reason of Democrats winning 2013, 2014, 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2020, was due to a relatively impressive rural vote. 

Also online, I saw  Loudoun/PwC/Fairfax in 2020 maxed out for Democrats as I did not other potential voters for Democrats to tap in to. Bluntly, they are too wealthy to go much, if at all, above their 2020 performance. But once you go online and see some Republicans call them "Romney-Clinton" counties... uh.... no. Way over simplistic. They seem to forget that about the massive growth in Loudoun and Prince William County. These are not the same as 2004, 2008, 2009, or even 2014. Also the parties have changed a bit since 2004 which flipped some voters.

And of course online.... I saw.. virtually all Dems calling it a solid bloo state... based off of tenuous results and data.

November 2nd, 2021 was a fun night for me. At least the "va is a solid blue state" and "nova only voted dem due to trump" takes have not been widely mentioned since.

But Democrats can not be an effective national party with their messaging and with ceding the white working class. The suburban strategy will not always work. Most suburbs are not Nova and there is a limit to high Democrats can perform in very wealthy areas elsewhere in the country. Note that Henrico County had a higher margin for the Democrats compared to Loudoun. Depending on who moves into and out of Loudoun, I expect Henrico to consistent vote to the left of Loudoun and probably Prince William.

Local campaigns, candidate quality, etc still matter even in this hyper partisan age. But it is why Youngkin, running the best campaign I have ever seen, was only able to defeat the Democrat by 1.9 points, and the GOP was unable to defeat any Nova Democratic incumbents. The anti-intellectualism GOP is a huge turn off in Northern Virginia. Also, I tend to dislike takes like "post dobbs" ratings, but if the current Supreme Court puts limits on the executive branch and over reaches in their rulings, I could see impacting Virginia more than other states. I still have it a bit to the left of the country, and as a pragmatic state. So right wing judicial activism is not going to play well here, especially if the federal government is attacked on its power. Which impacts people directly or indirectly in Nova.

I also have been seeing more a return lately of decisive racial and religious rhetoric in the GOP. Yea.... that is not going to play well in Northern Virginia. It is part of the reason of the huge swing from Obama to Clinton in 2016.

Nova will be a solid Dem voting block for a long time.

People did play the "I am not from here card". Sometimes, when you are completely unbiased and disconnected, you can make better judgements.

But still:

Clinton won it by 5 with Tim Kaine on the ticket and Trump pulled out of the state in 2016. It was winnable for Trump in 2016 statewide, though difficult.

Democrats: Please do not try to max out suburbs and cede the white working class nationally.. it did not work in VA in 2021 (but usually will work in this state), but it would make a place like Michigan impossible.

[jamestroll]

Amazing: https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1516187403093950469

He has been trying to stay as low key as possible, but I am concerned he is trying to run for President. He should focus on governing Virginia.

But there is a reason he is pushing  a 15 or 20 week abortion ban, versus a Texas style abortion ban.

But his popularity will not help the GOP in 2025. I kind of expect a Republican to win in 2024 and the state's over all lean will make it very difficult for a Republican to win the 2025 gubernatorial election. But that is a long time from now.

[jamestroll]

I say this as someone who typically oppose cash bail, and I believe largely abolishing cash bail has been unfairly criticized by some on the right. It was just implemented at bad timing during rising crime rates.

The localities in Nova have largely liberalized on criminal justice issues. The situation is that crime is low in Nova to begin with. So there was not a huge backlash to crime compared to other suburbia. Example of bubble living.

Route 50 can be pretty rough, but is nothing compared to Baltimore or what I saw in St. Louis or Salt Lake City personally.

But VA democrats should campaign and assume that the 2021 results in Nova are standard while adding a couple of points to Loudoun due to local issues and campaign in the rest of the state assuming that.

So basically, the region was lightly impacted by inflation, did not have to live under draconian covid measures unless they went into DC, had a low crime rate, and people here are more "worldly" and blamed many problems on external forces. Combine that with the parties changing since 2004 and demographic change: there was never going to gop revival in Nova in 2021. They did not even have to live through BLM riots except a handful of small disturbances near Manassas.

The voters that switched in Nova were swing voter due to national climate, or pissed off rightfully about school situations, or disliked the state democratic campaign of 2021. And of course a bit of very wealthy Biden only votes that did not vote for Wexton. Most of these switchers will not be reliable Democrats in 2022 or going forward.

Wealthy whites in Fairfax, Arlington,  and Alexandria lean to the Democrats pretty clearly but narrowly. But in rest of nova, they are a strong GOP vote. Maybe a little less than the small white working class in pwc and loudoun though.

But I am going be outta here! I loved it, but it is soul sucking and once I had opportunity that was appropriate in a place that is a more natural I took it. But ill certainly visit Virginia in the future many times !

[jamestroll]

This thread and the election was certainly fun.

Right as Joe Biden won in November 2020, I immediately saw an opening for the GOP to win Virginia in 2021.

My co workers and neighbors were in a Nova bubble and could not see a Republican winning statewide. They do not even have to live among high crime rates, inflation was not as noticeable in the Nova region due to already high cost of living, they did not under draconian measures of other Democratic ran localities during covid. So they were literally in a bubble.

What I saw was a state with a very large rural and southern cultured population, with Joe Biden doing actually relatively in the southern part of the state! A large part of the reason of Democrats winning 2013, 2014, 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2020, was due to a relatively impressive rural vote. 

Also online, I saw  Loudoun/PwC/Fairfax in 2020 maxed out for Democrats as I did not other potential voters for Democrats to tap in to. Bluntly, they are too wealthy to go much, if at all, above their 2020 performance. But once you go online and see some Republicans call them "Romney-Clinton" counties... uh.... no. Way over simplistic. They seem to forget that about the massive growth in Loudoun and Prince William County. These are not the same as 2004, 2008, 2009, or even 2014. Also the parties have changed a bit since 2004 which flipped some voters.

And of course online.... I saw.. virtually all Dems calling it a solid bloo state... based off of tenuous results and data.

November 2nd, 2021 was a fun night for me. At least the "va is a solid blue state" and "nova only voted dem due to trump" takes have not been widely mentioned since.

But Democrats can not be an effective national party with their messaging and with ceding the white working class. The suburban strategy will not always work. Most suburbs are not Nova and there is a limit to high Democrats can perform in very wealthy areas elsewhere in the country. Note that Henrico County had a higher margin for the Democrats compared to Loudoun. Depending on who moves into and out of Loudoun, I expect Henrico to consistent vote to the left of Loudoun and probably Prince William.

Local campaigns, candidate quality, etc still matter even in this hyper partisan age. But it is why Youngkin, running the best campaign I have ever seen, was only able to defeat the Democrat by 1.9 points, and the GOP was unable to defeat any Nova Democratic incumbents. The anti-intellectualism GOP is a huge turn off in Northern Virginia. Also, I tend to dislike takes like "post dobbs" ratings, but if the current Supreme Court puts limits on the executive branch and over reaches in their rulings, I could see impacting Virginia more than other states. I still have it a bit to the left of the country, and as a pragmatic state. So right wing judicial activism is not going to play well here, especially if the federal government is attacked on its power. Which impacts people directly or indirectly in Nova.

I also have been seeing more a return lately of decisive racial and religious rhetoric in the GOP. Yea.... that is not going to play well in Northern Virginia. It is part of the reason of the huge swing from Obama to Clinton in 2016.

Nova will be a solid Dem voting block for a long time.

People did play the "I am not from here card". Sometimes, when you are completely unbiased and disconnected, you can make better judgements.

But still:

Clinton won it by 5 with Tim Kaine on the ticket and Trump pulled out of the state in 2016. It was winnable for Trump in 2016 statewide, though difficult.

Democrats: Please do not try to max out suburbs and cede the white working class nationally.. it did not work in VA in 2021 (but usually will work in this state), but it would make a place like Michigan impossible.

how could you have seen trump winning virgina in 2016

Well, Trump did pull out of the state and virtually conceded it.

It was a bit less diverse back at that time and if Trump was able to obtain more of the rural vote and have it vote more comparable to southern rural areas, he could have won it in a close finish.

[jamestroll]

In a tight Virginia race, Covid concerns still make campaigning difficult for Democrats

While Republicans more or less kept up their normal ground game throughout the pandemic, Democrats last year halted all in-person operations for months during the height of the presidential campaign.

Even now, in Virginia's critical gubernatorial race, some progressives say they're still having a difficult time getting people to volunteer in person, though vaccines have helped ease concerns.

“We have noticed a lot more people eager to help, but not necessarily eager to knock on doors. It's been tough,” said Maya Castillo, the political director for New Virginia Majority, which organizes communities of color.

Is the excuse making already starting for a McAuliffe loss? My views on the virus and pandemic are pretty well known here but even I think this is a very poor excuse. The local Democratic party can buy N95 masks and give them out to the canvassers, plus tell them to back up from the door. Canvassing would also be considered a public-facing job so they could even get a booster shot. Combine these and canvassers are quite safe from COVID-19. The pandemic is no longer a valid reason to avoid in-person canvassing and if Dems do so it is unilateral disarmament.  

Nope Sir. Covid was a major factor in Virginia in 2021.

The 2022 elections have not occurred yet, but part of the reason Democrats may not be blown out as much as you'd expected is due to covid "pre cautions" being in the rear view mirror.

But.. just watch.. if there is a late october surge and some liberals start trying to bring back restrictions....It could give the GOP a last minute surge.

I lived through it.. even in liberal Nova.. Democrats were being seen as crazy when it came to masks and schooling.

Worst campaign ever
https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1455167994397593604?s=20

never fails.. someone wearing a mask incorrectly in the background of these. At least it was outside I guess.

But yes.. Virginians were fine with unvaxxed staff and their kids not wearing masks.

[jamestroll]

Honestly, I think I might go out and campaign for Chap if this is who his primary opponents are being supported by:
https://twitter.com/ErikaYalowitz/status/1629523706312531972

I could well be back in Virginia in mid 2024 or in 2025.

Chap Peterson was my state senator and I liked him very much. His primary opponents wouldn't lose that district.. a Democrat of virtually any kinda would win it at this point.. but Chap Peterson represents the district very well. Trust me, the people there don't buy the BS that Dr. Fingle Dingle sells.

Yalowitz I hope is blown the f*** out in the primary.

[jamestroll]

just to remind people that Chap Peterson tended to vote more with the Democratic line than Vogel  and Dunnavant are for the gop.

Its beyond laughable someone would want to primary Peterson

In fact, he should be the 2025 Gubernatorial nominee!!!!!!!!!!

Peterson was always right:

https://wtop.com/virginia/2020/06/lawsuit-northam-covid-19-unconstitutional/

A pair of lawsuits filed Tuesday are asking Virginia and federal courts to find unconstitutional Gov. Ralph Northam’s ongoing COVID-19 executive orders restricting businesses in the commonwealth.

The suits were filed by lawyer and Virginia state Sen. J. Chapman “Chap” Petersen, D-Fairfax, on behalf of his clients, whose wedding event and restaurant businesses have been suffering. He spoke first to WTOP.

Petersen said Northam’s executive orders have effectively closed his clients’ businesses under his emergency powers during the coronavirus pandemic.

“He is using powers that are supposed to be for an emergency but, instead, he’s basically passing long-lasting and semi-permanent laws that are preventing them from operating their businesses,” Petersen said, “and he is doing it without any legislative approval. And that is unconstitutional.”

Fortunately, by July 2020 things were very loose in VA.. and few bothered to enforce MASKS, night curfews, etc.

[jamestroll]

Im on mobile? Any hope for chap petersen?

[jamestroll]

Im on mobile? Any hope for chap petersen?

Currently tight race with hum down, but basically all thats reported is EV and Fairfax city Precincts, so the picture is unclear. Do note that he's losing the two precincts not from the city, and lost the EV batches, it just hasn't been blowouts.

I loved him aa my state senator!! He called covid for being what it was. Hype

[jamestroll]

Looks like something of a liberal revolt in inner NOVA.  Longtime incumbents Petersen and Barker with something of a reputation for deal-making are both down to more progressive primary challengers.  Also, as noted above, Petersen was by far the most libertarian Dem on COVID rules.  The incumbent progressive prosecutors in Arlington and Loudoun have won are against primary challengers who positioned themselves as tough on crime and the progressive incumbent in Fairfax is leading pretty significantly.  

Its making me very worried about the general election results.

[jamestroll]

HOW THE  IS CHAP PETERSEN LOSING??? HE IS A REAL CHAMPION OF THE PEOPLE??

He shouldnt  be losing. In fact, he should be governor!!!!!!!!

[jamestroll]

Chap Petersen:

Joined Republicans to cast the deciding vote to kill mask mandates in schools
Founded the Redskins Pride Caucus to defend the Washington Football Team’s former name
Opposed taking down Confederate statues in Richmond

My idol is finished.

He was the BEST state senator I ever heard. I cant believe he lost like oakton.

Confederate statues i am MEH on that ISSUE.

[jamestroll]

Joe Morrissey, John Edwards, and Chap Petersen all being gone next year will definitely move the chamber to the left if Dems win a majority in November.

They were probably the three most moderate/right wing senators in the D caucus.

Petersen voted with democrats more reliably than many republicans voted with their party.

He was outstanding.

My former dem neighbors have lost their MINDS

[jamestroll]

How are the pwc results? Any bastion of sanity left in nova?

I still am neutral/postive on trumpkin. He isnt a nimby

[jamestroll]

Chap Petersen probably was just too moderate for a district like SD-37 and was coasting on hometown appeal.   Redistricting was probably going to screw him over no matter what.

All incumbents of both parties who lost today would probably not have lost - or at least made it much closer - if they were in their old districts. Joe Morrissey, for example, is quite literally the example of a legislator who knew how to serve his specific constituents and gave the finger to public opinion in the rest of the state. But redistricting changed the districts and shuffled voters, removing old constituents and adding voters who have never been given a reason to like said incumbent. And so the incumbent must actually win the trust of those new voters, or risk them selecting one of their own and outvoting the carryover constituents.

Yeah, it looks like Petersen did well in much of his old turf.

Funny enough, he did very well in Oakton, but lost the precinct I used to live in.

[jamestroll]

Haven’t all the VA governors of the last like 20+ years been really popular? McAulliffe, McDonnell, Kaine, and Warner all enjoyed high approval ratings during their terms, so I’m wondering if Virginia’s population just likes their political figures more than other states.

Yes, there was a time when Terry McAufflie was widely popular.

By summer and fall 2021, Non Swing Voter and myself were the only people in the entire state genuinely EXCITED about him.

The only reason he almost won was because VA leans Democratic.

[jamestroll]

Why is this thread so much longer than other state threads here? Is Virginia that important of a state, lol.

I think a lot of it is down to a fairly conservative Republican winning the governor election one year after Biden carried the state by double digits. Put paid to all that talk of Virginia being a safe D state now, raises a lot of questions over its political future = lots of scope for discussion.

Plus, the fact the thread has been going on for almost 3 years now. Most fizzle out within 3 weeks if not days.

I never thought my own creation would go out of control.. largely for reasons outside of my control.

[jamestroll]

The 2021 elections completely led people (including me) on the wrong track for their 2022 predictions — so many interpreted them as a sign of a red wave environment when, in reality, they were not the harbinger but the one outlier among the post-2020 elections.

e: And before anyone entertains the "we were headed for a red wave before Dobbs" narrative, there is absolutely no evidence for that. Dobbs allowed Democrats to overperform even more, but it was not the difference between a red wave and a blue ripple.

Democratic campaign Malpractice

[jamestroll]

All republicans online want nova to be a gop stronghold. Don't Believe those internals. It's HYPE.

[jamestroll]

I hope non swing voter returns.

but in seriousness, I think VA kind of heart breaks both parties. The democrats thinking it will be a hard progressive state, and the republicans who think it will vote like the 90s without Trump in office have all been proven wrong

[jamestroll]

the reason I do not bash moderate democrats is basically: look at the Loudoun County District Attorney race. Basically a hard left Dem won big against a moderate Dem challenger in the primary .. and the hard left dem lost narrowly to a moderate republican in the general. How does that help progressive causes? It does not. Though Anderson doesn't seem like he is INSANE.

Yea, I have tended to OVERESTIMATE the VA and CO GOP % most years. But if a state (VA) feels barely to the left of Missouri on the issues.. its hard for me to justify predicting big dem victories.

I. Do. Not. Believe. That. Virginia. of. All. Places. Would. Vote. That. Much. More. Than. Ohio. On. Weed. And. Abortion.

But i actually got it very spot on this year.. bare dem victories. now granted if DRUMPF was in office.. the dems would have won bigger but not more than 55 to 45 House and 23 Dem senate.

and I still believe it will be harder for the GOP to flip VA in 2024 than NC will be for the Dems,  (i actually think dems may well win NC!) but VA will be under 10%.. and most likely around 5% dem victory

Chesterfield County ZOOMING left probably can put a brake on the GOP chances federally in VA.


https://twitter.com/IrishPatri0t/status/1724541120095334423