Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[jamestroll]

I feel like at this point, from comments you can read everywhere online, that the extremism in opinions of the final outcome of this race are feeding off of each other.

No, Youngkin will not win Loudoun County even though I would expect it to swing quite a bit right relatively as it is wealthier and whiter than the rest of Nova.

No, McAufflie can not win by Tim Kaine margin's statewide. The climate is just not right and the votes arent there even if McAufflie is favored.

[jamestroll]

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7001/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-gubernatorial-election

look at the comment section. They are debating whether or not Youngkin can outright win nova or not. While the market favors Democrats, the comment section is mostly people saying Youngkin will win Loudoun outright and has a good chance in Fairfax.

its like... lmao..

[jamestroll]

The Youngkin people in that section basically have Youngkin carrying every jurisdiction in the state.

[jamestroll]

Without using the words.. he is rich... what exactly is making people think youngkin is such a great candidate and an unbeatable titan?

[jamestroll]

This is my initial  jurisdiction prediction.

First off I will start with this:

I. WILL. NOT. TOLERATE. ANY. PREDICTION. THAT. HAS. MCAUFFLIE. CARRYING. VIRGINIA. BEACH. !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! He will not carry it.




I am unsure of Chesapeake city. Will be very close. Hopewell City could vote for Youngkin as well if the vote is heavily racially polarized. Stafford is not happening for  Democrats this November.

Chesterfield I am unsure of but think Youngkin has it but barely.

Virginia Beach will be like 53 to 46 Youngkin. Not a landslide but Democrats aren't winning it this year.

And to some clowns dismay... Democrats will win Loudoun.

[jamestroll]

Okay, we are at 41 pages now. My goal is to hit 100 pages by end of election night. Let's do this!

Just not with maps that have Virginia Beach going Democratic.

[jamestroll]

Under Democrats: Virginia named #1 Best State for Business in the United States

another nail in the coffin for the Trumpkin Campaign.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/13/virginia-is-back-as-americas-top-state-for-business.html

[jamestroll]

https://twitter.com/vpapupdates/status/1417824426406694914

On paper it looks like Nova is donating to Trumpkin in droves... and reverting back to Bush 2004.

but wait..



The advantage is from this zip code..

which just so happens to be Trumpkins zipcode.

[jamestroll]

Montgomery County MD is talking about covid restrictions again! I am worried they will be great campaign material for the VA GOP.

At least Northam is not requiring masks in schools. Yes, I agree it is a good idea to wear masks in schools this fall. But politically it would be a disaster for Democrats.

[jamestroll]

https://twitter.com/vpapupdates/status/1417824426406694914

On paper it looks like Nova is donating to Trumpkin in droves... and reverting back to Bush 2004.

but wait..



The advantage is from this zip code..

which just so happens to be Trumpkins zipcode.

lol.

I do see an absolute TON of Trumpkin signs in the 22066 zip.  It's like they are all over the place in Great Falls toward Loudoun.  They magically disappear when you get to Loudoun of McLean.  That said, 22066 is a fairly swingy zip code.  In a sane world this would clearly be Republican territory but post Trump Dems do really well in areas like this.  This is the kind of zip code Trumpkin really needs to over perform in, not just 50/50, he needs zip code like this to go at least 60/40 for him to improve his margins in places like Fairfax and give him a shot statewide.  I just don't see that happening though.

Yes, I hate that zip code. I have a problem with extreme inequality. I am sure Trumpkin will win Great Falls. He will not win Mclean though. McLean is actually fairly reliably Democratic. Apparently even Mark Warner won it in 2014.

Trumpkin's own donations to himself is literally the reason why the outside the belt way Nova area donated more to him. But without his own self funding, Tmac apparently may have outraised Youngkin in that zipcode. lmao

[jamestroll]

My analysis on the Virginia Gubernatorial election.  I still think in the end McAuliffe will most likely prevail, but if I were him, I'd be very worried looking at the polling.  McAuliffe is the de facto incumbent.  I would expect him to be running away with it.  He isn't.  The polls show it close. McAuliffe is not the invincible pol people think.  Remember, he only narrowly edged out a very polarizing opponent in 2013, and Youngkin as not as controversial as Cucinelli.  And McAuliffe left office with mediocre approval ratings.  Above water, but below 50%.  And I believe there is the sense among some moderate voters in the suburbs that Northam and the Democrats in the General Assembly have overreached the last 2 years.  Since willing the majority, the Democrats have done things like abolishing the death penalty and legalized marijuana.  They are acting like Virginia is Massachusetts.

abolishing the death penalty and legalizing marijuana especially are probably the lease of the over reach...

[jamestroll]

I am terrified that  that after the election that Trumpkin supporters will come and invade Nova, Richmond, Charlottesville and Norfolk...

[jamestroll]

Virginia will reject trumpkin

[jamestroll]

I am terrified that  that after the election that Trumpkin supporters will come and invade Nova, Richmond, Charlottesville and Norfolk...

what on earth are you talking about?

Yeah, I mean, Trump supporters would never invade Charlottesville!

Yea these youngkin fans are surreal.. they worship a guy who is literally a rich some dude. Nothing special at all about him. He seems to have magnetic powers. The trumpkin supporters won't handle a loss well

[jamestroll]

I have no idea how Northam's K-12 Mask Mandate will impact the election. Will energize the GOP base but I have my doubts the Biden voters in Virginia would respond that badly to requiring masks for a population largely ineligible for vaccination.

[jamestroll]

Could the afganistan fiasco hurt mcaulife in NOVA?

NOVA is AN EXTREMELY pro-interventionist area of the country.

No it really is not. Sorry to burst your bubble. And that type of policy is not exactly a fully partisan issue.

[jamestroll]

Could the afganistan fiasco hurt mcaulife in NOVA?

NOVA is AN EXTREMELY pro-interventionist area of the country.

No it really is not. Sorry to burst your bubble. And that type of policy is not exactly a fully partisan issue.

you are seriously arguing that an area of america where a huge chunk of people work for fbi, cia, dod, and numerous defense contractors isn't pro-interventionist? lol

there is a reason the GOP dominated the region from reagan to bush

Oh boy. another person who believes that Nova flips back to the GOP just because Trump is out of office and thinks the electorate here is the same as 2000.

Not worth pages long of arguments.

But Afghanistan will have little if any impact on this election.

[jamestroll]

Even I do not think it is unreasonable to require masks in schools and I have spent the last year and a half literally DEMANDING that schools and businesses are opened.. Most school aged children can not be vaccinated yet.

[jamestroll]

I fully suspect that if mcauliffe wins that there will be a second insurrection attempt and a storming of the Richmond Capital.

[jamestroll]

I'm afraid if Youngkin is elected he will send the entire virignia national guard and all active duty military in the state over to Afghanistan to keep the war going

[jamestroll]

Predictably (and even uploaded on the same day):

https://youtu.be/Fh_5lK_uP5M

https://youtu.be/YZgstTIarEM

These culture-war issues (not far-fetched to count COVID among them at this point) will hold more sway / impact base turnout more than Biden's decision to withdraw from Afghanistan.

It's unlikely to happen.. but if the gop sweeps all three statewide races and flips the house of delegates do you think the GOP would contest the state in 2024?

Right now I expect the two downballot offices to be generic d vs r so they may run a bit ahead of tmac. But that could change.

[jamestroll]

Are some exaggerating the idea Dems need +6% to win the House of Delegates? Biden won 52 districts by 10% or more. Yes this map was a GOP gerrymander but the coalition it was drawn for is completely broken.

I agree.  It’s pretty easy to see them falling to exactly 51 (one of the Biden +10 districts has a longtime R incumbent with significant moderate cred), but very hard to see them losing the majority unless they are also losing all the statewide races.

Yes, I looked at each HOD race and it looks like getting below 51, let alone 50 for Democrats would be very difficult.

I agree with Chaz Nuttycombe that Ayala and Herring will run a bit ahead of Tmac as well.

I am wondering if the all-Nova ticket may help Democrats this cycle. Democrats need every nova vote and keep as many romney-clinton supporters as  possible this cycle.

[jamestroll]

I will stop reading predictit and Twitter comments on this election. They are asinine.

No, Afghanistan will not doom mcauliffe. It certainly will not help him but Youngkin isn't exactly a military guy and a governor of Virginia has no impact or say in foreign policy.

Plus, many of the people who would switch from dems to the gop over this were a very tenous Democratic base anyway and were always going to vote for Trumpkin.

McCain and romney were more hawkish than Obama and they both lost the state.

[jamestroll]

I will stop reading predictit and Twitter comments on this election. They are asinine.

No, Afghanistan will not doom mcauliffe. It certainly will not help him but Youngkin isn't exactly a military guy and a governor of Virginia has no impact or say in foreign policy.

Plus, many of the people who would switch from dems to the gop over this were a very tenous Democratic base anyway and were always going to vote for Trumpkin.

McCain and romney were more hawkish than Obama and they both lost the state.

Of course.  The only conceivable voters the GOP could pull over are rich Fairfax county voters who are fiscally conservative but socially liberal.  Therefore it made sense to nominate a Northern Virginia businessman like Youngkin.  The problem was that he has no personality and a very unlikable face.  So he can't even get his own voters motivated.  To do so he's already started with the ANTIFA and BLM/pro-cop veiled racist ads.  This might drum up his base where he needs it to be but it's going to doom him in NOVA.  The other problem is that Terry isn't a socialist so it's going to be harder to extract those NOVA voters from him. 

Terry is a perfect left of center on fiscal issues. Literally the perfect balance. It is hard to attack him on fiscal issues.

[jamestroll]

Everyone should be prepared this November when Youngkin supporters retaliate after they lose.

All signs are pointing to a violent coup attempt in Richmond.