Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[jamestroll]

I feel a lot of people are underestimating youngkin. Don't forget that in 2013/2014, Cucinelli and Gillespie were doing worse in the polls than youngkin is now.

Also, as someone who's politically schizophrenic, I think Youngkin winning might be a good thing. Up until the end of July my big worry was minority rule. While I still want Thomas and Alito to go to ADX Florence - I feel the public health tyranny is the biggest problem in this country. This stuff can't go on forever. And if youngkin promises to get rid of all these mandates/restrictions - then good for him.

There are no covid restrictions in Virginia.

[jamestroll]

There is a lot of wish casting among youngkin supporters. Like there is literally serious talk among the gop of youngkin outright carrying fairfax county.

Loudoun County they basically have as safe youngkin.

He has an outside shot there if things they very very bad for the democrats though.

[jamestroll]

The truth is that Youngkin could  win and this will be within 5 or 6 points either way maximum. This is the only major race the GOP has a shot at this year so expect them to fight hard for it.

[jamestroll]

Will we reach 100 pages? We aren't even at 50 yet..

[jamestroll]

Current T Mac ads: nurses, doctors, masks, women talking about abortion rights.

Current Youngkin ads: him fumbling through a grocery store + non stop ads featuring a bunch of really old white male cops.

Pretty obvious to everyone but MT Treasurer and THG who is running the better campaign here.

I only see youngkin signs in Fairfax but I think it may be because he is winning the extreme wealthy and Democrats are more likely to live in condos, townhouses or apartments thag forbid signs?

[jamestroll]

Current T Mac ads: nurses, doctors, masks, women talking about abortion rights.

Current Youngkin ads: him fumbling through a grocery store + non stop ads featuring a bunch of really old white male cops.

Pretty obvious to everyone but MT Treasurer and THG who is running the better campaign here.

I only see youngkin signs in Fairfax but I think it may be because he is winning the extreme wealthy and Democrats are more likely to live in condos, townhouses or apartments thag forbid signs?

Not sure how that is possible.  He does have a lot of signs, he had them in the GOP "primary" as well.  But I see more TMac signs.  Are you only driving through exclusive parts of Great Falls or something?

Oakton, Fairfax, Tysons, Vienna are where I am the most.

[jamestroll]

Current T Mac ads: nurses, doctors, masks, women talking about abortion rights.

Current Youngkin ads: him fumbling through a grocery store + non stop ads featuring a bunch of really old white male cops.

Pretty obvious to everyone but MT Treasurer and THG who is running the better campaign here.

I only see youngkin signs in Fairfax but I think it may be because he is winning the extreme wealthy and Democrats are more likely to live in condos, townhouses or apartments thag forbid signs?

Not sure how that is possible.  He does have a lot of signs, he had them in the GOP "primary" as well.  But I see more TMac signs.  Are you only driving through exclusive parts of Great Falls or something?

Oakton, Fairfax, Tysons, Vienna are where I am the most.

There are Terry signs allover Tysons and Vienna. 

Where??? Literally every single house on some streets in Vienna have youngkin signs.

[jamestroll]

Current T Mac ads: nurses, doctors, masks, women talking about abortion rights.

Current Youngkin ads: him fumbling through a grocery store + non stop ads featuring a bunch of really old white male cops.

Pretty obvious to everyone but MT Treasurer and THG who is running the better campaign here.

I only see youngkin signs in Fairfax but I think it may be because he is winning the extreme wealthy and Democrats are more likely to live in condos, townhouses or apartments thag forbid signs?

Not sure how that is possible.  He does have a lot of signs, he had them in the GOP "primary" as well.  But I see more TMac signs.  Are you only driving through exclusive parts of Great Falls or something?

I think I see more Youngkin signs between Alexandria and Fort Hunt.  Now that may be confirmation bias at work, but I'll try to take a count today.

There are streets in extreme biden areas that literally every house has a youngkin sign lol

[jamestroll]

First day of early voting is today. I am voting tomorrow.

Hopefully Youngkin doesn't try to steal it.

[jamestroll]

I just watched the debate. WTF? Youngkin is awful.

What the hell is the cult following around him. He is literally the absolute worst!

[jamestroll]

I was voter #3 in fairfax county today!

I voted for Terry!

[jamestroll]

Why is there a cult following behind this Trumpkin guy???

There is nothing special about him. Literally nothing!!

[jamestroll]

some one help me! i can't take it any more.. those youngkin signs I am seeing are going to make me have a nervous breakdown

[jamestroll]

https://winslowastro.com/2021/09/06/glenn-youngkin-will-a-business-manager-become-virginia-governor/

Astrologer thinks Youngkin will fall a little bit short..

[jamestroll]

Neutral astrology with no birth times suggest the GOP would be slightly favored to win the governorship. However, if that public birth time for Glenn Trumpkin is correct, it is difficult to see him winning.

[jamestroll]

if youngkin wins I will literally roll around on the ground and scream angrily!!!

[jamestroll]

Going forward, the Loudoun portion of the current VA 10 will probably be more reliable than the Fairfax portion for Democrats.

[jamestroll]

https://twitter.com/JessicaTaylor/status/1441374272602218496

Because of course.

Here we go again.  Dems are going to lose a state that Biden won by 10 points.  Of course this is happening. 

It might be time just to give up. Maybe all these people who said va only voted dem because of trump were right.

[jamestroll]

Youngkin is basically going to win solidly over pandemic restrictions and critical race theory.. basically things that don't even exist !

[jamestroll]

Im worried that youngkin will win by 5 to 10 points and convince some Democratic state senators to become Republicans and flipping the state senate as well.

First thing they will do is abolish medicaid expansion and make abortion illegal.

[jamestroll]

Going forward, the Loudoun portion of the current VA 10 will probably be more reliable than the Fairfax portion for Democrats.

Perhaps.  It's had more demographic change than the Fairfax portion.  The Fairfax portion was explicitly carved out to gerrymander Barbara Comstock a district and essentially has all of the wealthy (formerly GOP leaning) areas in it.  That's why Wexton has to tread lightly on taxes.  She winning or coming close to winning essentially all of those rich precincts but if Dems did a huge tax increase she'd probably have to rely a lot more on Loudoun, which is where she's from anyways.  

It will be interesting to see how this part of Fairfax is redistricted.  I am guessing most of it does not remain with Loudoun.  Maybe the McLean and Great Falls portions but that's probably it.  

The vibe is like Great Falls is far different from where I live or most of fairfax!

Even the southwestern portion of Fairfax has a very different vibe. Va 10 in its current drawing could theoretically be competitive locally but it should not be a prime target for the GOP.

[jamestroll]

Cook doesn't have a good track record anyway. They will probably rate Mo Sen 2022 as toss up if any single digits poll comes out.

Maybe I over reacted a bit.

It's those bright red big youngkin signs making me crazy

[jamestroll]

I would not consider Youngkins win legitimate because his campaign is based on critical race theory and pandemic restrictions.

Neither of which exist in Virginia.

[jamestroll]

My predictions as of today

GOV: D+3
LT GOV D+ 3
AG D +4.5

[jamestroll]

As far as the super rich places, Youngkin will win both Great Falls and Oakton, while still losing McLean handedly. He'll obviously win the geographically large precincts on the PWC border north of Manassas. But these places account for only a relative small percentage of Fairfax's population. Reston, Alexandria (ffx county portion), Tyson's, the Springfield's, and the Burke's are all unmovable these days: somewhat to very dense, extremely diverse and very well-educated. Youngkin MIGHT improve slightly on the 2016 numbers here, but this really isn't a place that can move much.

Youngkin winning oakton??

WTF... LMAO NOOO...

-oakton resident