COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[Torrain]

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/apr/20/studies-suggest-very-few-have-had-covid-19-without-symptoms

Only a tiny proportion of the global population – maybe as few as 2% or 3% – appear to have antibodies in the blood showing they have been infected with Covid-19, according to the World Health Organization, a finding that bodes ill for hopes that herd immunity will ease the exit from lockdown.

Some of you guys like to dunk on the WHO's politics, but listen to this research. This is cold hard epidemiology, which is what they excel at.

Santa Clara county had 1,094 confirmed cases of Covid-19 at the time the study was carried out, but antibody tests suggest that between 48,000 and 81,000 people had been infected by early April, most of whom did not develop symptoms.

But even those high figures mean that within the whole population of the county, only 3% have been infected and have antibodies to the virus. A study in the Netherlands of 7,000 blood donors also found that just 3% had antibodies.

What's key here is that if we leave lockdown now, we'll go right back to where we were in February. Only now, flight bans won't stop it spreading, it's already here, in every region of our nations and states.

The second wave could be pretty significant, at least as bad as the first wave. It's hard to forecast beyond that.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/Newsweek/status/1252556817772744704

[Torrain]

Did Trump just suggest injecting isopropanol into your veins?

What in the actual ****

[Torrain]

Looks like Trump got duped by a cult, y'all.

The leader of the most prominent group in the US peddling potentially lethal industrial bleach as a “miracle cure” for coronavirus wrote to Donald Trump at the White House this week.

In his letter, Mark Grenon told Trump that chlorine dioxide – a powerful bleach used in industrial processes such as textile manufacturing that can have fatal side-effects when drunk – is “a wonderful detox that can kill 99% of the pathogens in the body”. He added that it “can rid the body of Covid-19”.

A few days after Grenon dispatched his letter, Trump went on national TV at his daily coronavirus briefing at the White House on Thursday and promoted the idea that disinfectant could be used as a treatment for the virus. To the astonishment of medical experts, the US president said that disinfectant “knocks it out in a minute. One minute!”

Grenon styles himself as “archbishop” of Genesis II – a Florida-based outfit that claims to be a church but which in fact is the largest producer and distributor of chlorine dioxide bleach as a “miracle cure” in the US. He brands the chemical as MMS, “miracle mineral solution”, and claims fraudulently that it can cure 99% of all illnesses including cancer, malaria, HIV/Aids as well as autism.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/24/revealed-leader-group-peddling-bleach-cure-lobbied-trump-coronavirus

[Torrain]

Wuhan Is Returning to Life. So Are Its Disputed Wet Markets
Cars lined up this week at the main entrance to the Baishazhou wet market, one of the biggest in Wuhan, which is buzzing again. The Chinese city where the coronavirus first emerged has stirred back to life following a lockdown lasting for months.

The challenge facing Beijing’s central government as Wuhan and the rest of the country seeks to return to normal life will be how to keep open such markets -- which function like a farmers’ market in Western countries -- while enforcing rules against the live slaughter of animals or sale of wildlife on site.

“Banning wet markets is not only going to be impossible, but will also be destructive for urban food security in China as they play such a pivotal role in ensuring urban residents’ access to affordable and healthy food,” said Dr. Zhenzhong Si, a research associate at the University of Waterloo who studies food security in China.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-08/wuhan-is-returning-to-life-so-are-its-disputed-wet-markets

I've got a horrible feeling that nothing is going to change on the ground in China

[Torrain]

Concerning the conversation on the last page, can I be blunt?

“Flatten the curve” was always about keeping the infection in check, so our healthcare system didn’t become overwhelmed. If our healthcare systems were overcome, then mortality would spike up to somewhere around 4-5%, as people with essential hospital requirements lose access to those services (cancer, automobile accidents etc).

Flattening the curve got us down to a 1% death rate. If we’re lucky, we can keep transmission slow, and contain this thing to regional outbreaks. But the speed of this thing will not seriously abate.

But until we have a vaccine, this thing is going to burn through our countries. Antivirals won’t help with that. All they do is slow the infection down, helping patients already in hospital To fight the infection. Isolation and vaccination are our only tools to prevent transmission.

More to the point, don’t expect a vaccine any time soon. The fastest vaccine programme ever was the Mumps vaccine, which took four years. Ebola took five. Even with all we know, there is a long road ahead. 18 months (ie mid to late 2021) would be an absolute miracle of modern science.

[Torrain]

Are you suggesting that we may not see a vaccine until 2024 or 2025?

I really don't know. If we can make a decent vaccine, then we should here some positive news about a break-through in the next 6-12 months, followed by a flurry of human trials that take several months, followed by numerous months of fast-tracked production.

But, if the virus proves problematic (like a HIV, or Rhinovirus, where viral lifecycle and evolution makes treatment complex), I'd expect the focus to switch to a larger focus on antivirals, which can (at best) mitigate infection.

I should note, antivirals are pretty risky. All the problems with antibiotics, where resistance arises fairly quickly, are present in antivirals. Also, because antiviral tend to attempt to halt intracellular processes, they tend to be fairly toxic, if poorly applied.

We also generally have far less direct treatment for viral infections than other conditions. For influenza, and viral meningitis, we basically just put people into hospital, and provide the air and/or nutrition they need, we don't have direct treatment for them.

Will social distancing and mask wearing be the norm for the next 4-5 years? Again, I think these are, and will continue to be, necessary measures, but it is mind-boggling to me what the consequences would be if these measures continue for that length of time.

Totally agree. It'll be hugely disruptive, and there will be a ton of major decisions to make. The long term impacts on social interactions, society and quality of life would be staggering.

[Torrain]

If people can't develop immunity, as there have been hints of since the beginning, this may end up fundamentally changing our society. Obviously things won't remain exactly as they are now forever, but there will be significant change from the old "normal."

Yeah, this could fundamentally alter society for decades. I think that even in the worst case scenario, where this thing evades our immunity in the same way influenza does, we'll eventually beat it though.

I've been studying for my undergrad finals this week, and in the papers I've been reading on influenza, the authors keep mentioning the concept of a universal flu vaccine (a vaccine that targets a highly-conserved motif, present in all influenza-A strains). If we focus on COVID-19 for the next decade, and give it the brains and investment it needs, there's a chance that we could see the same sort of breakthrough for that disease. There are some incredible academic theories being floated about the future of antiviral therapy, that have been ignored, due to a lack of urgency.

This could be the start of another revolution in genetics and microbiology, in the same vein as the development of the Sabin and Salk Polio vaccines, or the development of Next Generation Sequencing techniques in the last two decades. The answers are out there. But we just need more time and more resources.

[Torrain]

What are some of the "fundamental" changes that this pandemic can bring about? I've heard much about how it will accelerate automation and virtual interaction, but what will be the implications of those changes? Any other changes that could be longer lasting?

I can only speculate. But based on discussion I've had with people on this side of the Atlantic, it sounds like the success of video conferencing and home-work could hasten the death of office culture, and reduce business flights.

In the short term, many non-essential businesses could go bust, shifting our consumption patterns.

The Overton Window will certainly shift to the left, in Europe at least, with UBI and government interventions to pay wages likely gaining support on both sides of the political aisle.

In the short term, I'd expect populism to gain speed, and widespread political support for more locally-made products, in a range of businesses, to make up for disrupted supply chains, and inject new jobs into the economy.

Automation will likely charge ahead.

Personally, I expect the supply chain disruptions to continue, and probably worsen for at least a year or two, while this thing spreads. Certain foodstuffs are already slowing production in the US, and a shortage of ethanol and CO2 (affecting water treatment, alcohol etc) seems inevitable.

There will be a lot of new opportunities, but also some significant challenges.

[Torrain]

It's funny how there is a lot of hate for DeSantis and lots of love for Whitmer, although Florida has less cases and deaths than Michigan even though it has more than double the population of the Wolverine State.

Death counts matter, but they still don't account for the fact that DeSantis is an idiot and Whitmer is not.

Correlation equals causation. Democratic governors cause death.

If we divide the 50 states and DC into tertiles based on deaths per million:

Top 3rd D: (12) NY, NJ, NJ, CT, LA, MI, DC, RI, IL, PA, CO, DE, WA
Top 3rd R: (5) MA, IN, GA, MS, MD

Mid 3rd D: (9) NV, VA, KY, WI, NM, MN, CA, KS, ME
Mid 3rd R: ( VT, OH, OK, FL, MO, NH, AL, AZ

Bottom 3rd D: (4) NC, OR, MT, HI
Bottom 3rd R: (13) IA, SC, ID, NE, TN, TX, ND, WV, AR, UT, AK, WY, SD

Clearly, you’re trolling.

But this is basically just a list of state population densities, broken up into tiers that suit your narrative.

[Torrain]

The US's Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has authorised emergency use of the Ebola drug remdesivir for treating the coronavirus.

The authorisation means the anti-viral drug can now be used on people who are hospitalised with severe Covid-19.

A recent clinical trial showed the drug helped shorten the recovery time for people who were seriously ill.

However, it did not significantly improve survival rates.

www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-us-canada-52511270

[Torrain]

So....

Does anyone else think we've massively misplayed this.

No, I don't think meat packers tend to be that elderly. Maybe I'm wrong on that.

^This. Meat packers tend to be below fifty, and have a physical job that requires a degree of physical fitness. They are literally the worst possible group to draw the kind of assumptions that The Free North is making. The OP is clearly just looking for data that fits a specific narrative.

[Torrain]

So....

Does anyone else think we've massively misplayed this.

No, I don't think meat packers tend to be that elderly. Maybe I'm wrong on that.

^This. Meat packers tend to be below fifty, and have a physical job that requires a degree of physical fitness. They are literally the worst possible group to draw the kind of assumptions that The Free North is making. The OP is clearly just looking for data that fits a specific narrative.

The relatively benign outcomes we are observing from outbreaks like this are indeed a sign that we are going about this all wrong. 

If we are going for herd immunity, we will save hundred of thousands of lives by achieving it through voluntary deliberately infection of young and healthy people, as opposed to just continuing to let it spread randomly.  You might reduce deaths in the long run by more than 90%.

I'm sorry, and I say this with all respect, but this is an utterly unworkable idea. You cannot infect people without their consent, and you will never get millions of young Americans, already disgruntled with this administration, to consent to being infected with a disease that has a non-zero chance of killing them.

If these young people are infected in the course of daily life when the states re-open, that's one thing. But to straight-up infect people with a deadly virus, for the sake of the economy is quite another. If its in the context of a clinical trial, to determine vaccine efficacy, I get it. But that's a tiny subsection, not a population-wide strategy.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/i/events/1219057585707315201

I guess no more international travel, forever.

🙄

There will eventually be a vaccine or new anti-virals that will help with this.

The WHO has a clear agenda of decreasing morale, it’s just apparent at this point.

Nah, they are just acting like tone-deaf scientists. They warn it may never go away because there will almost certainly be some lingering outbreaks in less developed regions/among anti-vaxxer nuts kinda like somewhere in between Measles and Polio. The problem is, the WHO is completely tone-deaf and doesn’t understand saying things like these scares people who take the words out of context.

I know it sounds tone deaf. But trust me, as someone who’s spent the last two years being taught by microbiologists and virologists, it’s our duty to warn about all the likely outcomes, especially the bleaker ones. Even when talking about their own research area, it’s always couched in hypotheticals and somber warnings.

It’s one of the things they bake into you as a student: be aware of all the worst case scenarios that could arise from your research, and include them in your write up.

Most of these guys aren’t scaremongering, they see it as their ethical responsibility to present and discuss the worst case scenario. 

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/i/events/1219057585707315201

I guess no more international travel, forever.

🙄

There will eventually be a vaccine or new anti-virals that will help with this.

The WHO has a clear agenda of decreasing morale, it’s just apparent at this point.

Nah, they are just acting like tone-deaf scientists. They warn it may never go away because there will almost certainly be some lingering outbreaks in less developed regions/among anti-vaxxer nuts kinda like somewhere in between Measles and Polio. The problem is, the WHO is completely tone-deaf and doesn’t understand saying things like these scares people who take the words out of context.

I know it sounds tone deaf. But trust me, as someone who’s spent the last two years being taught by microbiologists and virologists, it’s our duty to warn about all the likely outcomes, especially the bleaker ones. Even when talking about their own research area, it’s always couched in hypotheticals and somber warnings.

It’s one of the things they bake into you as a student: be aware of all the worst case scenarios that could arise from your research, and include them in your write up.

Most of these guys aren’t scaremongering, they see it as their ethical responsibility to present and discuss the worst case scenario.  

Yeah, this is totally wrong. Yes, it's certainly the media's fault for reporting these sorts of "may" statements of a 1% or 5% probability result as if they are guaranteed facts, but it's not as if the scientists aren't aware that they are making statements that will be picked up by the media--at this point, they are often statements made directly to the media! It's those scientists' duty to couch their words in precise ways that actually express what they mean. "May have X result" is not saying what they mean in a precise and easily understandable manner for non-scientists. They need to say things like "There is a small chance that...", "We believe there is approximately 5% chance of..." or similar types of phrasing. Anything else is irresponsibly overstating the negative downside scenarios and results in apocalyptic thinking and reporting.

I'm gonna have to disagree with you there.
Scientists are already working to pare down complex concepts and findings for the public's benefit. It's not their fault if the public can't be bothered to read past a sensationalist headline.

The real enemy here isn't researchers in the life sciences (who are, by all accounts, worked off their feet right now), it's widespread scientific illiteracy and bravado, that leads members of the public to assert that they understand this crisis better than experts like Dr Fauci.

[Torrain]

Everything is fine.

https://twitter.com/javimorgado/status/1283531072530153472

Oh no...    If DeSantis and the federal government don't take immediate and stern action, this is going to get disastrously ugly very quickly.

It might already be too late, given the lag between infections and it getting to the stage that they need ICU care.

^This. The appropriate time for action was two weeks ago. If DeSantis doesn’t act now, Florida could reach a level of suffering not seen since Wuhan in February, or Lombardy in March.