COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

We really need to deliberately infect 1000 volunteers in an isolated facility with this virus just to see how dangerous it really is. I seriously doubt the claims of a 0.1-0.3 mortality rate, but it would be good to have more information on the true severity of the disease.

It’s likely higher than 0.3% overall, but probably lower than 0.1% among the young and healthy.

Take a look at the Berkeley study I linked to in Post 603 of this thread.
They estimate overall mortality in Northern Italy at about 0.6%, but mortality among those 40-49 at around 0.02%. (They don’t estimate it for anyone younger because there aren’t enough deaths to make an estimate.)

[Del Tachi]

You can have serious disagreements about the timeline for entering different stages of reopening, but the people who downplay that all the epidemiological models used to justify stay-at-home orders and lockdowns have blown-up spectacularly and there is no massaive mortality wave or resource shortage (outside of New York's uniquely ill-equipped hospital system) despite chicken littles promising us we were all doomed even if we did socially distance are downright sadistic.

You would think that the same people saying that every ICU in the nation would be overwhelmed when we only had <1k deaths would have admitted the public response was an overreaction, but of course they haven't because they're driven by ideological dogmatism and election-horserace watching rather than any sort of understanding of the economic/social consequences of lockdowns, isolation, and mass joblessness let alone compassion for the hundreds of millions of lives that have been disrupted.

Very cute.

Just gonna leave these here to demonstrate how utterly wrong you have proven yourself to be repeatedly in this thread

You, on April 5, using a misunderstanding of fractions to minimize the increase in confirmed cases. (Oops, turns out there are now 8 times as many confirmed cases as there were on March 27 )

So the rate of new diagnoses has slowed everyday since 03/27 despite the steady improvements in testing availability?

You, on April 5, saying that panic buying was somehow inflicting more damage than the virus itself:  (oops, now there are seven times as many fatalities as there were the day you posted this )

Panic buying is already a *major, major problem (and so far is actually a bigger problem than anything we've seen on the healthcare side).

You, on April 9, claiming the US is one of the "success stories" of the pandemic whereas today the United States has six times the worldwide deaths per capita and being sixteenth highest fatality rate per capita on Earth.

Is there anyone here who still maintains that the US is on an Italy-type disease trajectory?  Or can we all reasonably agree that the United States looks like it will be one of the "success stories" of the global pandemic?  If so, can we talk about what factors have influenced the U.S. emerging relatively unscathed from this?  Better testing, more docs/ventilators, lower population density, younger demographics, warm weather, etc.

You, on April 21, citing an article to make a definitive claim about age-specific mortality without realizing that the sampling here is incomplete and totally reliant on state reports which are inconsistent in timing and methodology.

Updated data from CDC show that more Americans over the age of 85 have died of COVID-19 than those under age 65.  The risks to young people are terribly overstated by the sensationalist media. 

Face it kid, you are not nearly as smart as you think you are. You've been trying to present studies, findings, and inference which are apparently totally outside of your training or field of expertise to try to make conclusions which are not only methodologically unsound but also hugely embarrassing in retrospect. That is to say nothing about your transparent bad faith and immunity to any sort of refutation of your talking points.

1.  The availability of testing is the primary determinant of new case counts, which makes its value as an indicator of the pandemic's progression inherently problematic.  This is mainstream opinion.  U.S. testing capacity has continued to expand and the test-positive rate has declined, suggesting that the level of U.S. testing has sufficiently expanded to keep-up with growth in new cases.

2.  The "worldwide deaths per capita" includes countries where there's practically zero testing, and therefore zero cases and zero deaths attributable to COVID-19.  ~30% of U.S. deaths have been in New York, the U.S. death rate excluding New York is only 120/1M.  Let's compare that to the 67,000/1M in the U.S. who are now U3 unemployed (so it doesn't even include people who have taken reduced hours, stopped looking for work, etc.)  The economic consequences (mostly brought on by lockdowns and other restrictions) of this virus have by far eclipsed the death toll.       

3.  The U.S. is not on an Italy-type trajectory.  Outside of a few isolated cases in New York City, hospitals have not had to triage patients.  There was no shortage of ventilators.  Hospital and ICUs across the U.S. are more empty now than they were at the beginning of March.  This, quite frankly, doesn't look like a pandemic in most of the U.S.  Demographic, institutional and cultural differences between the U.S. and Italy go far in explaining why the pandemic's progression has been so different in the two countries.  I don't see how this is a controversial observation.

4.  All U.S. death statistics rely on state reporting, which necessarily has different standards/lags.  There is no Federal/CDC death count that is independent of what states are reporting.  This is the data we have, and I'm only letting it speak.  All mortality data suggests the elderly are exceptionally more at-risk than <50s, and the chicken littles' obsession with outlier cases and anecdotes is not an accurate representation of what is happening.       

[Arizona Iced Tea]

It's funny how there is a lot of hate for DeSantis and lots of love for Whitmer, although Florida has less cases and deaths than Michigan even though it has more than double the population of the Wolverine State.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

It's funny how there is a lot of hate for DeSantis and lots of love for Whitmer, although Florida has less cases and deaths than Michigan even though it has more than double the population of the Wolverine State.

Death counts matter, but they still don't account for the fact that DeSantis is an idiot and Whitmer is not.

[Calthrina950]

It's funny how there is a lot of hate for DeSantis and lots of love for Whitmer, although Florida has less cases and deaths than Michigan even though it has more than double the population of the Wolverine State.

I don't think either DeSantis or Whitmer are the best examples to look to, in terms of which governors have handled the crisis more effectively. I think better role models can be found with Mike DeWine, Jay Inslee, and Larry Hogan, to give a few examples.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

It's funny how there is a lot of hate for DeSantis and lots of love for Whitmer, although Florida has less cases and deaths than Michigan even though it has more than double the population of the Wolverine State.

I don't think either DeSantis or Whitmer are the best examples to look to, in terms of which governors have handled the crisis more effectively. I think better role models can be found with Mike DeWine, Jay Inslee, and Larry Hogan, to give a few examples.

Definitely, also CA had a really good governor too in the crisis.

[emailking]

We really need to deliberately infect 1000 volunteers in an isolated facility with this virus just to see how dangerous it really is. I seriously doubt the claims of a 0.1-0.3 mortality rate, but it would be good to have more information on the true severity of the disease.

This would likely be skewed towards people who think they will survive. Why would an 85 year old ever volunteer for this?

[Calthrina950]

It's funny how there is a lot of hate for DeSantis and lots of love for Whitmer, although Florida has less cases and deaths than Michigan even though it has more than double the population of the Wolverine State.

I don't think either DeSantis or Whitmer are the best examples to look to, in terms of which governors have handled the crisis more effectively. I think better role models can be found with Mike DeWine, Jay Inslee, and Larry Hogan, to give a few examples.

Definitely, also CA had a really good governor too in the crisis.

Newsom has done a good job as well, and California has not been hit nearly as hard by the virus as New York has (neither has Texas, for that matter, and both states, as well as Florida, are more populous than New York). DeSantis is an example of a governor who has done too little in response to the pandemic; Whitmer an example of a governor who has gone too far. Those who are in between the two extremes, and have proceeded in a cautious manner, are worthy of more praise. My state's Governor, Polis, has also done a good job in responding to it.

[Del Tachi]

It's funny how there is a lot of hate for DeSantis and lots of love for Whitmer, although Florida has less cases and deaths than Michigan even though it has more than double the population of the Wolverine State.

Death counts matter, but they still don't account for the fact that DeSantis is an idiot and Whitmer is not.

But if we’re taking the position that the public response should be motivated by data and evidence-based, there’s nothing in the data that suggests Florida should be as lockdowned as Michigan.  This is just further confirmation that most mainstream voices and liberal posters only think data matters when it can used to promote maximum panic. 

[It’s so Joever]

We really need to deliberately infect 1000 volunteers in an isolated facility with this virus just to see how dangerous it really is. I seriously doubt the claims of a 0.1-0.3 mortality rate, but it would be good to have more information on the true severity of the disease.

This would likely be skewed towards people who think they will survive. Why would an 85 year old ever volunteer for this?

I think there would be many people who think it’s nothing worse than a flu, who would be more than willing to undergo such an experiment if it makes things “go back to normal” quicker, including plenty of elderly people.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/otis_reid/status/1254510389225807872

[It’s so Joever]

It's funny how there is a lot of hate for DeSantis and lots of love for Whitmer, although Florida has less cases and deaths than Michigan even though it has more than double the population of the Wolverine State.

Death counts matter, but they still don't account for the fact that DeSantis is an idiot and Whitmer is not.

But if we’re taking the position that the public response should be motivated by data and evidence-based, there’s nothing in the data that suggests Florida should be as lockdowned as Michigan.  This is just further confirmation that most mainstream voices and liberal posters only think data matters when it can used to promote maximum panic. 

You aren’t wrong, but Florida still is reopening too early. DeSantis should probably give it one more week before reopening.

[Del Tachi]

https://twitter.com/otis_reid/status/1254510389225807872

Good thing America is nothing like The Bronx.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

We really need to deliberately infect 1000 volunteers in an isolated facility with this virus just to see how dangerous it really is. I seriously doubt the claims of a 0.1-0.3 mortality rate, but it would be good to have more information on the true severity of the disease.

This would likely be skewed towards people who think they will survive. Why would an 85 year old ever volunteer for this?

I don’t really think we need people to be voluntarily infected just to get a good grasp on the death rate.  We’re already pretty close to reasonable estimates for most categories.  And we can get much better just from improved serology studies. 

One thing I would really like to see is a serology study of infants and children.  Most of the ones released so far deliberately exclude children.  I know the number of deaths among children is extremely low, but this could partially be the result of lower infection numbers.  This seems especially relevant for infants, who are especially vulnerable to many diseases, but may be less likely than other groups to get infected since they tends to be much more socially isolated than adults.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

So researchers in Florida discovered that probably the source of the biggest outbreak in the state was caused by people from New York fleeing the stay-at-home order to come to their second homes here, and most of their second homes are in the Gold Coast and in Orlando

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/otis_reid/status/1254510389225807872

Good thing America is nothing like The Bronx.

I hate to be the one to break this to you, but The Bronx is part of America.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/otis_reid/status/1254510389225807872

Good thing America is nothing like The Bronx.

I hate to be the one to break this to you, but The Bronx is part of America.

This brings to light something which I think hasn't received enough attention here: that minority communities, particularly black communities, have been hardest hit by this pandemic. I read an article sometime ago about a black church in Harlem, and how at least ten members of the congregation have died from the virus. Even though the pandemic hasn't been as severe in much of the country (though that can change), it has definitely hit New York City hard.

This also brings me around to another point. I'm saddened by how people are unable to let their political viewpoints be cast aside for the sake of common action on this crisis. Many on the right, in particular, continue to downplay the virus's effects, in the sense of health. Yes, it has had devastating economic repercussions-as I've acknowledged-but the effects of it on real people have too often been discounted.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

https://twitter.com/otis_reid/status/1254510389225807872

Good thing America is nothing like The Bronx.

This would be completely consistent with an IFR of 0.6% and an infection rate of 25%.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Italy plans for phased reopening:

#Italy PM Conte lays out how lockdown will be eased. From 4 May:
- People can move within region but not beyond
- Visiting family members allowed but not social gatherings. With masks
- Private sport allowed (eg running)
- Parks reopening
- Funerals - max 15 ppl...
- Bars/restaurants will allow take-aways
- Professional athletes can train on their own behind closed doors
- Manufacturing, construction and wholesale companies allowed to restart

ALL of above with mandatory social distancing. Those with temperature must stay home...

...then from 18 May:
- Smaller construction businesses can reopen
- Libraries, museums, exhibition venues allowed to reopen
- Sports teams can train behind closed doors.

AGAIN all with social distancing. And health ministry can intervene to stop things if curve spikes...

..then from 1 June:
PLANNED reopening of bars, restaurants, hairdressers, beauty salons.

So, phased unlocking of #Italy.
@GiuseppeConteIT
  repeats need for social distance. "If you love Italy, maintain your distance".

Italy will soon finally taste normality again.

One last thing: answering journalists' questions, PM Conte announced schools will remain closed until September.

https://twitter.com/marklowen/status/1254487727233474560

[Del Tachi]

https://twitter.com/otis_reid/status/1254510389225807872

Good thing America is nothing like The Bronx.

I hate to be the one to break this to you, but The Bronx is part of America.

What is the point of parroting these uncontrolled statistics with absolutely zero additional analysis or commentary?  Is the implication that 550k Americans are going to die from COVID-19?

The fact that The Bronx is nothing like the rest of America (in fact, the United States even including the Bronx is nothing like the Bronx) is a relevant point to consider when considering the progression of the pandemic.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/otis_reid/status/1254510389225807872

Good thing America is nothing like The Bronx.

I hate to be the one to break this to you, but The Bronx is part of America.

What is the point of parroting these uncontrolled statistics with absolutely zero additional analysis or commentary?  Is the implication that 550k Americans are going to die from COVID-19?

The fact that The Bronx is nothing like the rest of America (in fact, the United States even including the Bronx is nothing like the Bronx) is a relevant point to consider when considering the progression of the pandemic.

Because the death rates in the boroughs of New York City, which is the most afflicted area in the U.S., are probably of general interest to people following the pandemic.  Not all statistics require additional commentary or analysis, and in many cases I prefer to just present the data without imparting any commentary that may be interpreted as spin.  But if you want some, I'll say that this may represent a good upper bound for the maximum death rate among localities in the U.S.

[It’s so Joever]

To be fair, the virus-truther at least has a point on this one. The Bronx is far more dense than most of America and has a higher rate of minorities (who for some reason are more likely to die from this)
Most of America will probably at least do somewhat better than the Bronx is, but that doesn’t mean we should reopen by any means.

[Calthrina950]

To be fair, the virus-truther at least has a point on this one. The Bronx is far more dense than most of America and has a higher rate of minorities (who for some reason are more likely to die from this)
Most of America will probably at least do somewhat better than the Bronx is, but that doesn’t mean we should reopen by any means.

Many blacks suffer from obesity, high blood pressure, and the diseases associated with these (particularly heart disease and diabetes) at higher rates than the rest of the population. Blacks are also more likely to live in multi-generational households (as are Hispanics), have less reliable (and lower-quality) healthcare, and are more likely to live in neighborhoods with more unsanitary conditions. Throughout this country's history, we've been hit by just about every natural disaster or pandemic worse than whites have.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

To be fair, the virus-truther at least has a point on this one. The Bronx is far more dense than most of America and has a higher rate of minorities (who for some reason are more likely to die from this)
Most of America will probably at least do somewhat better than the Bronx is, but that doesn’t mean we should reopen by any means.

Many blacks suffer from obesity, high blood pressure, and the diseases associated with these (particularly heart disease and diabetes) at higher rates than the rest of the population. Blacks are also more likely to live in multi-generational households (as are Hispanics), have less reliable (and lower-quality) healthcare, and are more likely to live in neighborhoods with more unsanitary conditions. Throughout this country's history, we've been hit by just about every natural disaster or pandemic worse than whites have.

This is replicable in many diverse population centers. Look at San Francisco for example:

https://www.sfexaminer.com/news/people-of-color-make-up-majority-of-coronavirus-deaths-in-san-francisco/


Economic hardship and racial/class disparities are often correlated for obvious reasons.

[Calthrina950]

To be fair, the virus-truther at least has a point on this one. The Bronx is far more dense than most of America and has a higher rate of minorities (who for some reason are more likely to die from this)
Most of America will probably at least do somewhat better than the Bronx is, but that doesn’t mean we should reopen by any means.

Many blacks suffer from obesity, high blood pressure, and the diseases associated with these (particularly heart disease and diabetes) at higher rates than the rest of the population. Blacks are also more likely to live in multi-generational households (as are Hispanics), have less reliable (and lower-quality) healthcare, and are more likely to live in neighborhoods with more unsanitary conditions. Throughout this country's history, we've been hit by just about every natural disaster or pandemic worse than whites have.

This is replicable in many diverse population centers. Look at San Francisco for example:

https://www.sfexaminer.com/news/people-of-color-make-up-majority-of-coronavirus-deaths-in-san-francisco/


Economic hardship and racial/class disparities are often correlated for obvious reasons.

I certainly agree, and know of this. San Francisco, from what I understand, has also been experiencing a major outbreak among its homeless population. So again, this reinforces my conviction that this pandemic is not something which should be taken lightly, and its effects are going to last much longer than some on here (I'm looking at you Del Tachi) are willing to acknowledge.