COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[QAnonKelly]

So researchers in Florida discovered that probably the source of the biggest outbreak in the state was caused by people from New York fleeing the stay-at-home order to come to their second homes here, and most of their second homes are in the Gold Coast and in Orlando

My cousin lives on the Gold Coast and when I talked to him last week, his roommate was getting tested bc he thought he had it. Guess I need to follow up with him.

[Del Tachi]

1.  Arch's presentation of the numbers was not entirely clear, and after I raised my questions about how to interpret the % change figures he was including in his posts he started listing the daily change and cumulative increase figures separately.  I won't apologize for a brief misunderstanding of the numbers he was presenting, especially when I've contributed no shortage of statistics, data and perspective of my own to the thread.

Maybe this means you should... think more before you post? The raw case numbers Arch was reporting were increasing that week; very conveniently, you ignored those for the figures that reaffirmed your pre-existing beliefs despite much more clear and obvious data to the contrary.

It's not hard to see why this episode illustrates that your posts deserve to be scrutinized more than apparently you are doing yourself.

And the costs of >$2Trn is government assistance is of no-concern?  And even so, no amount of government stimulus (assuming its easy to get, which has not always been the case in these times) can supplement the security afforded by a stable job.  Government bailouts and emergency measures are only temporary stopgaps, and cannot be sustainable long-term strategies the economy.  Fiscal considerations aside, the human costs of the current economic downturn dwarf the suffering brought about as a direct result of deaths/infections/PPE shortages or whatever. 

There is no serious person who thinks that lockdowns are going to persist beyond the summer, even if that long. Temporary stopgaps to deal with a temporary crisis.

And there's no guarantee (or even evidence to suggest) that spending will resume to January-February/Q4 2019 levels. Consumers are (rightly) spooked and that's percolated upwards to halt economic activity at higher levels. If you're concerned that government spending can't fully revive a person's income, then reopening the economy shouldn't make you feel much better, especially considering the potential lost activity due to workers and consumers becoming reinfected.

4.  There's no problem using incomplete death counts to talk about age-specific mortality unless there's reason to think death reports from only certain age groups lag more than others.  At any given point in time, an incomplete assessment shouldn't affect the age distribution of deaths because the age of a decadent is irrelevant to when it gets reported.  If you have a reason not to suspect this, please share. 

Erm... you acknowledged in your last post that Italy has a very different demographic breakdown than the United States. That is true! It is also true that states (and even counties!) have differing demographics, including wealth and comorbidities. Unless you have evidence that you're getting an unbiased sample of states then your claims are pretty uncertain.

Also, the age of the decedent does potentially influence the reporting probability if older people are dying in nursing facilities and younger patients aren't.

This is why you shouldn't be talking about statistics with authority! You very obviously don't have the training or experience in this type of work to understand the potential reporting biases (et cetera) that you are failing to account for.

I don't think there's any reason to actually doubt the numbers but my point is you're so far out of your depth in trying to interpret studies like this that you don't even understand why you could potentially be wrong. You'd think after being dunked on time and time again in this thread you would learn some humility and lay low, but apparently not so. A person who gets refuted this often and returns to make the same points repeatedly is clearly dealing in bad faith.

I really don't understand what you're trying to get out of this exercise.  If you want a blue avatar to kick around, DTT is a much easier target.

Maybe I'm trying to drill into your head that you are not that smart and you should listen to people who actually know what they are talking about?

e: my other larger point from my initial post is that you make posts which assess the current point in time as not being bad, but those posts age poorly because... the situation doesn't get any better! Maybe your posts about the severity of the pandemic that you made today (when there are 55K confirmed deaths) will age just as poorly as the posts you made a month ago (when there were <5K deaths).

1.  The raw case numbers increase every week (because they can never by definition decrease), and there's the added effect of growth in testing identifying (often less serious) cases that would have previously been untested.  You and other posters are more than welcomed to scrutinize my posts as much as you want, but I'm not going to stop contributing because you don't like me or whatever. 

2.  I love how you bypass my statement about New York being an exceptional case and New York-style measures not being appropriate in places that haven't seen major outbreaks (like Georgia and Florida, or most of the country for that matter) to default to the standard response of "only two more weeks guys!  I promise!" while meanwhile ignoring that people's livelihoods and savings are being destroyed right now.  The onus is on those who wish to justify continued lockdowns, not those who want a semblance of normality to resume.  I'm glad to bring that perspective to this thread.

3.  Your somersaults re: calculating morbidity are a real doozie.  Inherent in your post are assumptions that (a) deaths in nursing homes are getting reported accurately while deaths among younger cohorts in other settings are being reported with a delay (or maybe not even at all?), (b) the accuracy/lag in which a state reports deaths is correlated with wealth or the number/severity of comorbidities within the population, and (c) the true age-mortality distribution in states with delayed reporting is different than the distribution in more quickly-reporting states.  You imply these things with no empirical or theoretical reasoning to support these assumptions.  I'll say it again so you understand:  the age-distribution of mortality should not be affected by reporting delays unless the delay occurs differently based on the age of the decadent.

Peenie, I had much more respect for you as an informed poster prior to this interaction.  Being "so far out of depth" in my case apparently means having baccalaureate and graduate degrees in applied economics (lots of advanced coursework in economic theory, stats, and experimental design) and working a full-time, salaried, benefits-eligible research position.  I would advise you tuck your tail for a while unless you actually have something scientific or data-driven (or maybe even just cogent?) to contribute to this conversation, instead of just telling me how stupid you think I am.  I had no idea you actually were this insufferable.     

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/ericuman/status/1254050613996007425

[jimrtex]

It's funny how there is a lot of hate for DeSantis and lots of love for Whitmer, although Florida has less cases and deaths than Michigan even though it has more than double the population of the Wolverine State.

Death counts matter, but they still don't account for the fact that DeSantis is an idiot and Whitmer is not.

Correlation equals causation. Democratic governors cause death.

[T'Chenka]

It's funny how there is a lot of hate for DeSantis and lots of love for Whitmer, although Florida has less cases and deaths than Michigan even though it has more than double the population of the Wolverine State.

Death counts matter, but they still don't account for the fact that DeSantis is an idiot and Whitmer is not.

Correlation equals causation. Democratic governors cause death.

Context is your friend, Jim.

[Dr. Arch]

It's funny how there is a lot of hate for DeSantis and lots of love for Whitmer, although Florida has less cases and deaths than Michigan even though it has more than double the population of the Wolverine State.

Death counts matter, but they still don't account for the fact that DeSantis is an idiot and Whitmer is not.

Correlation equals causation. Democratic governors cause death.

Off to ignore you go. I wish the old Jim were here, but he has clearly checked out for good.

[It’s so Joever]

It's funny how there is a lot of hate for DeSantis and lots of love for Whitmer, although Florida has less cases and deaths than Michigan even though it has more than double the population of the Wolverine State.

Death counts matter, but they still don't account for the fact that DeSantis is an idiot and Whitmer is not.

Correlation equals causation. Democratic governors cause death.

Get this, there has been over 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 times more Covid-19 deaths under just one Republican President than under all previous Democratic presidents combined!
Republican presidents cause death.
Correlation equals causation.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It's funny how there is a lot of hate for DeSantis and lots of love for Whitmer, although Florida has less cases and deaths than Michigan even though it has more than double the population of the Wolverine State.

Death counts matter, but they still don't account for the fact that DeSantis is an idiot and Whitmer is not.

Correlation equals causation. Democratic governors cause death.

Get this, there has been over 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 times more Covid-19 deaths under just one Republican President than under all previous Democratic presidents combined!
Republican presidents cause death.
Correlation equals causation.

There have been 1 googol times more covid-19 deaths during the existence of the United States than there was when we were under British rule.
It is time we became a British colony because that would stop coronavirus. Correlation equals causation.

[Devout Centrist]

Your weekly reminder that we still have no plan for the next 12 months.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Louisiana has New Orleans which is a smaller city compared to Atlanta Georgia. Both very southern states with large AA populations. Louisiana is much more hard hit than Georgia was, the former has a Democratic governor the latter has a Republican. Also Orleans Parish itself got worse hit than Fulton County so I am also looking at the cities themselves here too. This certainly has nothing to do with parties though. Massachusetts is the 3rd with Covid cases and deaths and they have a Republican governor.

[YE]

It's funny how there is a lot of hate for DeSantis and lots of love for Whitmer, although Florida has less cases and deaths than Michigan even though it has more than double the population of the Wolverine State.

The virus arrrived in Michigan sooner than Florida I believe.

We’ll get a clearer picture on this in three weeks.

[Sir Mohamed]

Your weekly reminder that we still have no plan for the next 12 months.

Does the world? Sure, Mr. Trump and his admin are utterly incompetent, but I don't see other countries with a better crisis management have a detailed plan for the next 12 months either. The whole situation is so volatile, it's next to impossible to plan for a longer period of time. We still don't have enough scientific data about the virus itsself, the disease, medical treatment, vaccine and dynamics of the pandemic. Things that seem impossible today could be discussed tomorrow and be a matter of fact next week. Things that appear to be certain today, could be debunked by a study coming out tomorrow.

I'm afraid we need to figure out a way to live with the pandemic without having too much economic and social damage until a vaccine is ready for full scale use. Unless there is mass immunity through one way or the other, this thing won't go away, even if lockdowns reduce the number of sick people.

[T'Chenka]

Your weekly reminder that we still have no plan for the next 12 months.

Plans are for beta males. Trump's gonna wing it.

[Devout Centrist]

Your weekly reminder that we still have no plan for the next 12 months.

Does the world? Sure, Mr. Trump and his admin are utterly incompetent, but I don't see other countries with a better crisis management have a detailed plan for the next 12 months either.

Other leaders have articulated what measures will be implemented in the near term and, while no one has a complete 'master' plan, other governments have provided local and provincial authorities with a better roadmap for the future.

The Federal Government has so far failed to provide anything beyond a skeletal plan for reopening the country. Major concerns of transmission post lockdown remain unaddressed, as do concerns about critical national supply chains.

The whole point of this lockdown was to buy time. Time to produce more gear. Time to send Federal resources to the states. Time to formulate a long term strategy. It has been six weeks since the start of this lockdown and over 111 days since China confirmed COVID-19's existence. Yet we are no closer to fixing our protective gear shortage.

Going for herd immunity, with no viable plan in place for protecting the public, will be disastrous. Suggesting people wear cloth rags as makeshift masks is not a solution!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Beware of subscriptions that are worse than the disease. If you extend the span of time for consideration long enough and just slavishly insist on lockdowns, you unleash a massive array of massively ugly consquences onto society, above and beyond what corona would be capable of.
The worst case scenario is not all efforts to contain corona spreading through the wider population failing. It is our economy collapsing under the weight of lockdowns, lockdowns being defied by the broader populace and thus being rendered ineffective, governments locking up people for not following its unpopular policies, society unraveling under the weight of humans being starved of face-to-face contact, and a whole host of negative consequences stemming from vain efforts on part of authorities to force mankind, an inherently social species, to talk to itself mainly by a set of screens and not normally for longer than it is willing to bear.
Corona stinks, but it isn't the end of world. The closest we can get to end of the world would be humanity sinking into collective insanity.

[Technocracy Timmy]

(Reuters) - Oklahoma's governor has called on U.S. President Donald Trump to declare the coronavirus pandemic an "act of God," a step to help oil-producing states contend with a crude glut that caused futures prices to close below $0 last week for the first time.

Source.

We gonna pray on this one y’all. Praise be to Christ.

[jimrtex]

It's funny how there is a lot of hate for DeSantis and lots of love for Whitmer, although Florida has less cases and deaths than Michigan even though it has more than double the population of the Wolverine State.

Death counts matter, but they still don't account for the fact that DeSantis is an idiot and Whitmer is not.

Correlation equals causation. Democratic governors cause death.

If we divide the 50 states and DC into tertiles based on deaths per million:

Top 3rd D: (12) NY, NJ, NJ, CT, LA, MI, DC, RI, IL, PA, CO, DE, WA
Top 3rd R: (5) MA, IN, GA, MS, MD

Mid 3rd D: (9) NV, VA, KY, WI, NM, MN, CA, KS, ME
Mid 3rd R: (8) VT, OH, OK, FL, MO, NH, AL, AZ

Bottom 3rd D: (4) NC, OR, MT, HI
Bottom 3rd R: (13) IA, SC, ID, NE, TN, TX, ND, WV, AR, UT, AK, WY, SD

[jimrtex]

(Reuters) - Oklahoma's governor has called on U.S. President Donald Trump to declare the coronavirus pandemic an "act of God," a step to help oil-producing states contend with a crude glut that caused futures prices to close below $0 last week for the first time.

Source.

We gonna pray on this one y’all. Praise be to Christ.

Nothing to do with religion, Tim Bob.

What the COVID-19 Pandemic Means for Force Majeure Provisions

As the Reuters article explains producers lose their leases if they stop producing. If they keep producing, they have to pay someone to take the oil.

[Torrain]

It's funny how there is a lot of hate for DeSantis and lots of love for Whitmer, although Florida has less cases and deaths than Michigan even though it has more than double the population of the Wolverine State.

Death counts matter, but they still don't account for the fact that DeSantis is an idiot and Whitmer is not.

Correlation equals causation. Democratic governors cause death.

If we divide the 50 states and DC into tertiles based on deaths per million:

Top 3rd D: (12) NY, NJ, NJ, CT, LA, MI, DC, RI, IL, PA, CO, DE, WA
Top 3rd R: (5) MA, IN, GA, MS, MD

Mid 3rd D: (9) NV, VA, KY, WI, NM, MN, CA, KS, ME
Mid 3rd R: ( VT, OH, OK, FL, MO, NH, AL, AZ

Bottom 3rd D: (4) NC, OR, MT, HI
Bottom 3rd R: (13) IA, SC, ID, NE, TN, TX, ND, WV, AR, UT, AK, WY, SD

Clearly, you’re trolling.

But this is basically just a list of state population densities, broken up into tiers that suit your narrative.

[Brittain33]

(Reuters) - Oklahoma's governor has called on U.S. President Donald Trump to declare the coronavirus pandemic an "act of God," a step to help oil-producing states contend with a crude glut that caused futures prices to close below $0 last week for the first time.

Source.

We gonna pray on this one y’all. Praise be to Christ.

Imagine Trump having to acknowledge that God sent a plague to the U.S. because we elected Trump.

[GeorgiaModerate]

(Reuters) - Oklahoma's governor has called on U.S. President Donald Trump to declare the coronavirus pandemic an "act of God," a step to help oil-producing states contend with a crude glut that caused futures prices to close below $0 last week for the first time.

Source.

We gonna pray on this one y’all. Praise be to Christ.

Imagine Trump having to acknowledge that God sent a plague to the U.S. because we elected Trump.

If you believe in signs from God, sending a plague and depression in the year Trump is up for reelection is a pretty strong message.

[T'Chenka]

(Reuters) - Oklahoma's governor has called on U.S. President Donald Trump to declare the coronavirus pandemic an "act of God," a step to help oil-producing states contend with a crude glut that caused futures prices to close below $0 last week for the first time.

Source.

We gonna pray on this one y’all. Praise be to Christ.

Imagine Trump having to acknowledge that God sent a plague to the U.S. because we elected Trump.

If you believe in signs from God, sending a plague and depression in the year Trump is up for reelection is a pretty strong message.

It could have been Trump, it could have been Billie Eilish sweeping the Grammys. Maybe Bernie losing the primary was the last straw. It's hard to say.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

(Reuters) - Oklahoma's governor has called on U.S. President Donald Trump to declare the coronavirus pandemic an "act of God," a step to help oil-producing states contend with a crude glut that caused futures prices to close below $0 last week for the first time.

Source.

We gonna pray on this one y’all. Praise be to Christ.

Imagine Trump having to acknowledge that God sent a plague to the U.S. because we elected Trump.

If you believe in signs from God, sending a plague and depression in the year Trump is up for reelection is a pretty strong message.

It could have been Trump, it could have been Billie Eilish sweeping the Grammys. Maybe Bernie losing the primary was the last straw. It's hard to say.

What? Not a Billie Eilish fan, King TC?

[jamestroll]

Despite my griping at people about wanting the economy closed indefinitely until every last human being and now animal** has a vaccine against coronavirus I want to state that I am dead set opposed to what Brian Kemp is doing right now.

Individual states opening up the economy to soon and aggressively right now could pro long this further. When I was hoping for a strict lock down for a few months to get the virus under control start phased reopening in late June.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Despite my griping at people about wanting the economy closed indefinitely until every last human being and now animal** has a vaccine against coronavirus I want to state that I am dead set opposed to what Brian Kemp is doing right now.

Individual states opening up the economy to soon and aggressively right now could pro long this further. When I was hoping for a strict lock down for a few months to get the virus under control start phased reopening in late June.

There does seem to be some convoluted wisdom in Kemp's plan. Among his goals is maintaining solvency for medical institutions by allowing elective procedures to take place. Many doctors have been forced to retire from the profession by the fact that Corona stops them from collecting any or sufficient money.