Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)

[Tender Branson]

  If Kurz feels this should derail the coalition, why go for new elections, why not try to create a new coalition with the current parliament? Seems like a huge waste of time and effort and resources.

Back from barbecue.

Because SPÖ, NEOS, Now have all said they won't work with Kurz (at least not until new elections are held).

Kurz statement now planned in ca. 30 minutes.

President Van der Bellen will speak about an hour later.

Under Austrian law, the Chancellor can dismiss a cabinet member and ask the President to sign it off. The dismissal handshake between VdB and Strache should be sweet.

Don't you fear a Green Red Pink government?

I don't think you will like their open door/money for all policies...

I think Red+Green+Pink will not get a majority.

And while the SPÖ and Green immigration policy is troubling (with ÖVP+FPÖ, a sense of normality returned to the country on that issue), NEOS would serve as a corrective in such a government, so that mostly skilled people can come to the country and not a lot of money is spent on immigration and welfare.

[Tender Branson]

Here you can watch Chancellor Kurz's statement in ca. 10 minutes:

https://tvthek.orf.at/live/Statement-von-Bundeskanzler-Sebastian-Kurz-OeVP-zur-Regierungskrise/14015119

[Tender Branson]

Why wouldn't Kurz just go back to an emaciated but possibly cleansed FPO after the new elections? Why would he instinctively pivot left to the greens when pivoting right comes so easily to him?

I guess we cannot rule it out, but he probably doesn't want to make the same mistake again (the FPÖ will very likely never be "cleansed", there will always be so-called "unique cases" of anti-semitism etc.)

A strengthened ÖVP and Kurz with 40%+ would have a very easy time with the Greens and NEOS at around 8-10% each. See Salzburg state elections last year and aftermath. That government here now enjoys 75-80% approval ratings.

[Tender Branson]

Very good (campaign) speech by Kurz.

He said he was proud of their work so far, after years of "stagnation" and "unwillingness to work for the country".

But was ashamed of the constant "unique cases of anti-semitism, the rat-poem and the video yesterday. The FPÖ is hurting our reform project for the country."

Continuing the government with the FPÖ "is not possible right now, as he sees no intention after talks with key FPÖ people today that they would change their behaviour on Russia and anti-semitism over the next weeks or months."

He "asks every voter to join him in the next months to continue the centrist work for the country that the ÖVP has initiated."

"Enough is enough. New elections as soon as possible." (that will be mid-September)

[Tender Branson]

Wow, I'm so excited now for the 1st couple polls for the EU election and the upcoming federal election in September ...

I guess the FPÖ drops to 8-14% in the next few polls (which will be the EU result for them), but recovers slightly to ~15% for the more important federal election then.

ÖVP/Kurz will gain most out of their downfall, but also the other parties somewhat.

[Tender Branson]

NYT:

"Austrian Leader Calls for Snap Election After Far-Right Vice-Chancellor Resigns."

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/18/world/europe/austria-strache-resigns-video.html

"Highlights From the Video That Brought Down Austria’s Vice-Chancellor."

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/18/world/europe/austria-video-strache.html

[Tender Branson]

My prediction for the next polls that will be released:

40-42% ÖVP (+7)
29-31% SPÖ (+3)
10-12% FPÖ (-12)
  8-10% NEOS (+1)
    5-7% Greens (n.c.)
    0-2% NOW (n.c.)
    1-3% Others (+1)

[Tender Branson]

You certainly have to credit Kurz for the swift actions and his decision to terminate the coalition that he was so proud of.

When he took office (and he repeated it in his speech today), he said: „I will stay true to myself and the voters.“

Which he did today, acknowledging that he didn’t break up the coalition earlier when the FPÖ fu**ed up time and time again, to give them a chance to prevail themselves - as they were the only coalition partner for the ÖVP after the election.

[Tender Branson]

With Kurz and Hofer leading their parties into the new elections, they could be challenged by 4 female opposition leaders:

Pamela Rendi-Wagner (SPÖ)
Beate Meinl-Reisinger (NEOS)
Nina Tomaselli (Greens)
Maria Stern (Now)

[Tender Branson]

Interesting fact:

In the 1999 election, turnout was 80.4% - but in the early 2002 ÖVP landslide after the FPÖ collapse then, it increased to 84.3%

I wonder if this will be the case in the fall as well (turnout was 80% in 2017) ...

[Tender Branson]

It is certainly possible that Böhmermann is behind it ... but he should probably not confirm it (if he doesn’t want to end up as a corpse in a trash can, being put down by a Russian or Bosnian hitman hired by Strache or Gudenus (Gudenus studied in Russia and his wife is Bosnian) ...

[Tender Branson]

When will the next election be?

The most likely date for the new election is Sept. 20 - a date which would be after the summer vacation, but not too late.

And it is the date of the Vorarlberg state election, so the 2 elections could be merged (Vorarlberg Governor Wallner yesterday said he thinks that would be OK).

[Tender Branson]

The 3 important state elections planned for 2020 (Vienna, Steiermark and Burgenland) could all be moved up to the fall of this year now, because the SPÖ could take advantage of the collapsing FPÖ in Vienna and Burgenland and the ÖVP in Steiermark.

So, 2019 could end up as a Super Election Year (1x EU, 1x Federal, 4x State Elections) ...

[Tender Branson]

   Whats frustrating about this is that Kurz seemed pleased with the overall government performance of the OVP FPO coalition, and the collapse was not brought about by unbridgeable differences but rather Strache's stupidity.
    In the coming campaign Kurz will likely defend his record as chancellor, but that record is inextricably tied to the FPO, so the more he praises it, the more he also indirectly praises the FPO to an extent anyway. 
     Under Hofer I would think the FPO would have a good chance of alot of damage control, as he strikes me as one of their more stable leaders. Just how many FPO voters will desert the party? and vote for who, the OVP which just ended the coalition?
    Oh, and what about the direct democracy proposal? Did that ever make it through parliament?

ÖVP-FPÖ only wanted to pass this in parliament at the end of their term, in 2022, according to their coalition contract.

All of this is meaningless now, because ÖVP-NEOS-Greens will likely shelf it (because of the Greens and the ÖVP was also not really a big fan of it either).

[Tender Branson]

  Whats frustrating about this is that Kurz seemed pleased with the overall government performance of the OVP FPO coalition, and the collapse was not brought about by unbridgeable differences but rather Strache's stupidity.
    In the coming campaign Kurz will likely defend his record as chancellor, but that record is inextricably tied to the FPO, so the more he praises it, the more he also indirectly praises the FPO to an extent anyway.  
     Under Hofer I would think the FPO would have a good chance of alot of damage control, as he strikes me as one of their more stable leaders. Just how many FPO voters will desert the party? and vote for who, the OVP which just ended the coalition?
    Oh, and what about the direct democracy proposal? Did that ever make it through parliament?

ÖVP-FPÖ only wanted to pass this in parliament at the end of their term, in 2022, according to their coalition contract.

All of this is meaningless now, because ÖVP-NEOS-Greens will likely shelf it (because of the Greens and the ÖVP was also not really a big fan of it either).

The ÖVP isn't the CDU, I don't see Kurz going into a coalition with NEOS and Greens.

And frankly I doubt they'd have the necessary seats to form a government anyway. If the ÖVP doesn't win a majority by itself à la 2002 and if they don't renew their coalition with the FPÖ after the election, I think they'd go into coalition with the SPÖ, not NEOS or Greens.

And strategically I think it would be incredibly stupid for ÖVP to enter a coalition with NEOS and the Greens, it would give the FPÖ and opening again and they'd encounter the same issues as the CDU in Germany who are bleeding their rightwing.

Kurz could definitely go for ÖVP-NEOS-Greens.

That's because we will see a much different Kurz after the election: Once he has won the election with ca. 35-40% and NEOS/Greens with about 8% each, he will say "Immigration is not the main issue any longer and the policies I implemented with the FPÖ over the past 2 years have been enough to decrease new asylum requests to a much lower level and we can focus on the future now under a strengthened and dominating ÖVP".

And such a coalition would probably be quite popular too (see Salzburg here), because voters don't see it as polarizing as ÖVP-FPÖ.

[Tender Branson]

Also the current Landeshauptmann of the Burgenland, Doskozil (SPÖ), calls for a snap election. 
Actual there is a SPÖ-FPÖ-coalition.

The date will be announced tomorrow. Probably in January 2020, instead of the regular May 2020.

[Tender Branson]

So, we can kiss direct democracy goodbye?

As I explained to rob in cal, this was always more of a background issue for ÖVP/FPÖ and was only on the table for 2022 + with high hurdles of 900.000 signatures to force a referendum.

[Tender Branson]

More pictures from the SPÖ's demo event in front of Strache's office:

[Tender Branson]

Norbert Hofer elected new FPÖ-leader in a secret party meeting tonight (unanimously).

[Tender Branson]

https://twitter.com/palpet99/status/1130100124162633730

[Tender Branson]

Kurz to ask VdB (today, or in the next days) to dismiss Kickl as FPÖ-Interior Minister.

VdB agrees that Kickl has to go.

If that happens, Hofer has said that all FPÖ cabinet members will resign ...

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/herbert-kickl-steht-vor-vorzeitiger-abloese-als-innenminister/400499266

I think we can say now that another ÖVP-FPÖ coalition after the September election is DOA.

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ said they are open to supporting a no-confidence vote against Kurz if he insists on firing Kickl. Not one of their own, but for example if SPÖ or Neos or Now initiates one.

Now it's getting funny ...

Btw, I do not fully believe this new poll. The FPÖ is probably much lower now. Research Affairs was also biased towards the FPÖ in the past.

[Tender Branson]

Kurz with a press statement at 6:30pm ... in ca. 45 minutes ... about what to do with Kickl.

[Tender Branson]

Kurz just announced that he will kick out Kickl from the cabinet and has already told him so at a recent meeting.

Kurz has also talked with President VdB (because it is the President who ultimately needs to fire a cabinet member after the Chancellor declares so).

Kurz now expects the FPÖ to withdraw every cabinet member from the government, which he'll try to fill with independent experts for the next 6 months or so until the new government is formed.

Kurz: "The FPÖ has destroyed our successful government work."

[Tender Branson]

Even though the FPÖ is flirting with the no-confidence vote against Kurz initiated by NOW, it is far from certain that for example the SPÖ and/or NEOS will back it as well.

SPÖ and NEOS are in a "stability trap": Austrians want stability over the next months, so they certainly would not like SPÖ/NEOS to take Kurz down for political power gambling. They would be punished during the elections.