Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)

[Tender Branson]

The Mitterlehner book is creating quite a headache for the ÖVP, as 2 other former party leaders and some governors had to come to the rescue of Kurz today:

https://orf.at/stories/3119125

I have always liked the good, old Mitty and his late revenge against Kurz and his folk just ahead of the EU elections is a welcome distraction from ÖVP-FPÖ's Machtrausch. Recently, it looked as if they could do whatever they want, but some checks and balances is definitely needed for them. That's why I also hope the SPÖ wins the EU elections, so that they have to step down from their high horse.

[Tender Branson]

For German-speakers (the battle between Mitterlehner and Kurz explained):

https://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/oesterreich-kurz-oevp-fpoe-1.4413232

https://derstandard.at/2000101625729/Die-Kurz-Frage

For Americans, the situation is comparable to Trump vs. Romney (and other Trump critics from within the GOP).

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ continues to push their pro-Austrians/anti-foreigner agenda ahead of the EU elections.

Just recently, the FPÖ-Interior Minister Kickl (responsible for asylum) has announced that asylum seekers in basic government care (they get free housing, food and medical care from the state) will see a payment reduction for voluntary community service from the current 3-5€ per hour to 1.50€ per hour.



Kickl argues that this top-up "appreciation payment from our society to asylum seekers" is too high, considering that drafted army recruits get less than asylum seekers right now, when factoring in the free housing etc. for the asylum seekers and he wants to streamline the benefits.

The plans are very polarizing, with the FPÖ-base and ÖVP strongly supporting the measure - while the SPÖ+Green social ministers in the 9 states are opposed. The neutral Städtebund (association of Austrian cities) is also against, while the Gemeindebund (association of Austrian towns) is in favour.

As the Interior Minister has the power to enforce this new provision, the states will have to enforce them as well (but could sue). Would be bad on their part though, because it will be hard for them to argue to the voters why asylum seekers should get more compensation for community work than drafted recruits ...

https://orf.at/#/stories/3119455

In other news, the FPÖ (backed by the ÖVP) has unveiled a new law for "Austrians (... and EU-citizens) FIRST !" when applying for new housing/apartments.



Currently, Austrians + EU citizens + other foreigners have the same requirements when requesting for a city-funded new apartment with lower-than-average rent costs (Sozialbauwohnung).

FPÖ+ÖVP now want to give preference to Austrians + EU citizens who already lived in Austria for 5 years over those who just recently arrived in the country when applying for such a funded apartment.

Vienna and other big Austrian cities have a long tradition of cheap apartments for immigrants and working-class Austrians, going back to the early 1900s and Red Vienna. Just recently, the new Vienna mayor Michael Ludwig also announced that he favours such a policy of preference for Austrians and EU-citizens over newcomers.

https://kurier.at/chronik/oesterreich/oesterreicher-zuerst-im-sozialen-wohnbau/400470214

[Tender Branson]

After the actual 2018 budget surplus, ÖVP+FPÖ are submitting another planned budget surplus to Brussels next week for 2019 ("We will end the debt policy of the past.") and they also plan budget surpluses until 2023 already (which is 1 year into their planned 2nd term).

Also, the details of the 2020 tax cut for employees will be presented in the coming weeks, as both the 2020/2021 double budget and tax cut will be passed before summer:

https://derstandard.at/2000101809724/Regierung-plant-durchgehendes-Nulldefizit-bis-2023

[Tender Branson]

FPÖ-leader Strache (or better, the aide responsible for his Facebook page) has linked to a highly anti-semitic website recently:

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/strache-will-keine-seite-mit-rechtsradikalen-inhalten-geteilt-haben/400472920

[Tender Branson]

Ra(t)cist poem from someone in the Upper Austrian FPÖ creates controversy:

https://ooe.orf.at/news/stories/2977414

Looks like the FPÖ is not giving up on their far-right wing to mobilize for the EU election, just because Kurz and Co. demand the party to de-radicalize while in government ...

[Tender Branson]

Ra(t)cist poem from someone in the Upper Austrian FPÖ creates controversy:

https://ooe.orf.at/news/stories/2977414

Looks like the FPÖ is not giving up on their far-right wing to mobilize for the EU election, just because Kurz and Co. demand the party to de-radicalize while in government ...

The FPÖ poet Schilcher announced his resignation today from the Braunau city council and from the party.

[Tender Branson]

Ra(t)cist poem from someone in the Upper Austrian FPÖ creates controversy:

https://ooe.orf.at/news/stories/2977414

Looks like the FPÖ is not giving up on their far-right wing to mobilize for the EU election, just because Kurz and Co. demand the party to de-radicalize while in government ...

The FPÖ poet Schilcher announced his resignation today from the Braunau city council and from the party.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-48031971

https://abcnews.go.com/International/poem-comparing-migrants-rats-draws-condemnation-austria/story?id=62573215

[Tender Branson]

"Fascists will de-radicalize when faced with the responsibilities of sharing power" - they said, many times and in many places.

Well, for the past half year at least, it looked as if the FPÖ had itself under control and no real controversial remarks surfaced.

[Tender Branson]

President Van der Bellen (Greens) has summoned FPÖ-leader Strache to his Hofburg office today, to lecture him about the recent string of anti-semitic and racist incidents in the FPÖ and how this reminds him of the "language of the Nazis", "a language of fear and hatred" and how they turned Austria into a "negative international spotlight" (there were articles in the BBC and NYT for example).

Strache told VdB that he will do "everything possible" to make sure "these incidents remain limited" and "fire" those responsible.

https://orf.at/stories/3119829

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ-Styria is out with a comic poster titled „Tradition beats Immigration“ and a blonde couple in traditional clothing surrounded by shady people (according to the FPÖ, Muslim extremists).

But the famous Austrian TV anchor on the public broadcaster ORF, Armin Wolf, took up the comic and put a picture of the Nazi „Stürmer“ propaganda newspaper next to it when interviewing the FPÖ frontrunner Vilimsky yesterday, showing men with a hooked nose on both of them. Vilimsky called the comparison by Wolf „outrageous“ and said Wolf „has to face consequences“ because of this comparison.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/experten-ueber-stuermer-vergleich-in-zib2-klarer-gehts-nicht/400475215

[Tender Branson]

Parliament has passed the welfare reform law today with the votes of ÖVP+FPÖ.

SPÖ+NEOS+NOW voted against.

The new law will see much lower welfare payments to foreigners with bad German skills (unless they award a passing certificate from a state-recognized language training group) and children-rich families, while single parents and the disabled will get more money.

The 9 states will be granted time until Jan. 1, 2020 to prepare for the new law.

https://orf.at/stories/3120006

[Tender Branson]

Interesting development ahead of the coming presentation of ÖVP+FPÖ's tax cut/reform plans:

Apparently, the government wants to cut taxes much more for working people with lower/middle-incomes, rather than cutting taxes for companies.

In total, the tax cut will be worth 5-6 billion € and the lion share will be for workers - with corporate tax cuts only making up several hundred million € (and even those mostly for small- and medium sized business and not large corporations). The early plans saw roughly a 50:50 tax cut for both workers and companies, now it will be more 95:5 for workers.

The tax brackets for workers will be re-structured to only 3 to make accounting for companies more easier and lessen the bureaucratic burden.

Big Business is not really amused with this development, but I guess the average employee will be happy about it ...

But even with the smaller-than-assumed corporate tax cuts, Austria's corporate tax rates will decline to ca. 23-24% from the current 25% - which is still lower than many other European countries:



https://kurier.at/politik/inland/industrie-geht-bei-entlastung-leer-aus-und-probt-den-aufstand/400476394

Also:

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-austria-budget/austrias-debt-ratio-to-shrink-to-below-60-percent-by-2023-idUKKCN1S01L9

[Tender Branson]

After 2018, it seems that 2019 will see another budget surplus - based on the January-March numbers.

In the first 3 months, revenues are up by 8.3% while spending is down by 1.5%

Whereas the first 3 months of 2018 had a deficit of 2.4 billion €, this is down to 0.6 billion € this year.

Therefore, the budget surplus could be has high as 0.5-1.0% this year, after 0.1% last year.

https://www.bmf.gv.at/budget/das-budget/Monatsbericht_Maerz_2019_final.pdf

[Tender Branson]

A new "Profil" magazine poll shows that 49% of Austrians do not think the FPÖ is competent enough or suited to be a government party, while 40% think they are.

9/10 SPÖ-voters think the FPÖ is not competent enough, compared with 30% of ÖVP-voters.

https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20190504_OTS0002/profil-umfrage-knapp-die-haelfte-der-oesterreicher-haelt-fpoe-fuer-nicht-regierungsfaehig

[Tender Branson]

ÖVP+FPÖ will finally pass the elementary school headscarf ban into law today, after it was delayed by SPÖ and NEOS for 2 times.

ÖVP+FPÖ wanted a constitutional majority, but SPÖ and NEOS were opposed. It remains to be seen if they will vote with the government today (probably not).



Still, more than 80% of Austrians favour the ban as part of fighting political Islam in the country (and even want it extended to all school forms up to 18 years).

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/dritter-anlauf-fuer-kopftuchverbot-an-volksschulen/400487491

[Tender Branson]

Today, at a commemoration for the end of WW2, President Van der Bellen (Greens) strongly attacked the FPÖ and Strache for the use of the word "population replacement" in recent days.

Strache has repeatedly used the word recently and defended it, saying that the far-right Identitarians merely adopted the word from the FPÖ, instead of vice-versa (the FPÖ indeed used the word before them under the term Umvolkung).

VdB said that the terms population replacement and Umvolkung remind him of the German Volksgemeinschaft under the Nazis and that he doesn't want to live in such an ethnic 100% homogenous society and that achieving it today would only be possible by force (like the Nazis did). And this is highly dangerous, VdB said, because the choice of words could also lead to violence again.

https://orf.at/stories/3121439

I'm not completely sure if VdB is correct here: you can also make the population of a country more homogenous again, without force. By limiting further immigration, more deportations of criminal and rejected asylum seekers/foreigners and by promoting higher birth rates among the population.

[Tender Branson]

Well, apparently the FPÖ chief and vice chancellor HC Strache has been caught on tape offering government Contracts in exchange for Donations.
I wonder whether this might cause the fall of the Goverment..

I just came home and read about this „It’s a trap !“ video.

This video, showing Strache and Vienna Vice-mayor Gudenus on Ibiza in a staged apartment meeting with an actress playing a wealthy, young female Russian investor is absolutely brutal.

I don’t see how Strache can survive this ... (unless the FPÖ tries to sit things out and waits what the upcoming corruption probe of the state prosecution will show).

Also, President Van der Bellen could ask for Strache‘s resignation as Vice-Chancellor and Sports and Civil Servants Minister ...

[Tender Branson]

Johann Gudenus is the son of the late John Gudenus, a convicted Holocaust denier, and one of Strache‘s closest party members (along Hofer, Vilimsky and Upper Austrian party boss Haimbuchner).

Gudenus has studied in Russia, speaks the language fluently and set up the meeting in the staged video.

Gudenus, it was exposed, also used a Russian email account in the past with the password „heilheil“.

Also in the video, Strache talks about the Russian investor buying into the „Kronen Zeitung“ which is Austria’s biggest tabloid newspaper to influence the outcome of the 2017 election and of circumventing Austria‘s legal campaign finance laws, by donating to secret accounts for the FPÖ. According to Strache, billionaires like Gaston Glock etc. have done so already. Strache also called journalists „bitches“ in the video and that many of them need to be replaced immediately.

https://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/strache-video-johann-gudenus-fpoe-1.4451178

[Tender Branson]

Austrian far-right leader filmed offering public contracts for campaign support

The leader of Austria's far-right Freedom Party has been filmed offering to trade public contracts for campaign support, German media reported Friday.

The revelations could bring Austria's government to breaking point amid growing tensions between the far-right party and its coalition partner, the Austrian People's Party of Chancellor Sebastian Kurz.

The secretly recorded footage of Heinz-Christian Strache, Austria's vice chancellor and leader of the Freedom Party (FPÖ), was taken on the Spanish island of Ibiza before the Austrian election in 2017, according to Der Spiegel and Süddeutsche Zeitung, which obtained the video from an unnamed source.

It shows Strache, alongside fellow FPÖ politician Johann Gudenus, speaking to a woman claiming to be a wealthy Russian citizen who said she wanted to invest in Austria, apparently with money of dubious origin.

The encounter, which lasted six hours, appeared to be a trap for Strache, according to Der Spiegel and Süddeutsche.



The woman offered to buy a 50 percent stake in Austria's Kronen-Zeitung newspaper and switch it to a pro-FPÖ line. In turn, Strache said he could award her public contracts.

If the alleged Russian helped the FPÖ succeed, Strache said in the video, "she should found a company like Strabag," a major Austrian construction company. He added: "She will then get all the state contracts that Strabag gets now."

Strache and Gudenus also appeared to hint at the existence of a potentially illegal donation system for the party. The FPÖ leader said in the video that wealthy donors "pay between 500,000 and 1.5 to 2 million" not to the party but to an association.

Strache added: "The association is charitable, it's got nothing to do with the party. That way no report goes to the Rechnungshof," the Austrian court of auditors.

In comments to Süddeutsche and Der Spiegel, alleged donors named by Strache and Gudenus in the meeting denied sending money to the party either directly or indirectly. Strache and Gudenus said that such donations never arrived.

The two politicians did admit that the meeting happened, but said it had been a "purely private" encounter with plenty of alcohol involved. They said they had repeatedly mentioned "the relevant legal regulations and the necessity to observe Austrian law" during the evening.

In the video, Strache also said he wanted to "build a media landscape like Orbán," referring to Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orbán.

https://www.politico.eu/article/austria-far-right-freedom-strache

The opposition (SPÖ, NEOS, Greens, NOW) all call for Strache's resignation, an investigation (which has already been announced) and new elections.

The ÖVP is completely silent right now and the FPÖ will sue the German newspapers for "aquiring illegal, fake material".

[Tender Branson]

The "Standard" reports that Chancellor Kurz will talk with Strache tomorrow and then to the press:

https://derstandard.at/2000103364196/Strache-soll-Staatsauftraege-fuer-Wahlkampfspenden-in-Aussicht-gestellt-haben

According to some FPÖ people, a resignation of Strache and Gudenus could be likely tomorrow - with Norbert Hofer taking over the party. It remains to be seen if Chancellor Kurz will also continue the ÖVP-FPÖ coalition in such a case, but what alternative does he have ? He still hates the SPÖ much more than the FPÖ.

[Tender Branson]

It looks as if Chancellor Kurz will blow up the coalition today and pull a Schüssel 2.0 (like the former Chancellor did in 2002, when the previous ÖVP-FPÖ government exploded after the Knittelfeld putsch).

Kurz hopes that disappointed FPÖ-voters will push him above 40% in snap election, so that he can then form a new government with NEOS or with the Greens (or both, like here in Salzburg).

But more about this when Kurz really pulls the plug today and calls for early federal elections ...

---

Also: it looks like cocaine can be seen on the table in the staged Russian villa on Ibiza.

Also: in the video (6 hours of material !), Strache also talks about selling our pristine Alpine water to the Russians, which is a total no-go for Austrians and even FPÖ-voters. That was a total own goal and shows that Strache was exposed not as a patriot, but as a traitor to the country.


(FPÖ delegation with Putin's United Russia, signing a co-operation contract)

Also: the "Kronen Zeitung" newspaper (which Strache wanted to sell to the Russian oligarch woman for influence, to transform Austria's media landscape ala Orban (quote Strache) is out with a devastating cover today, so is the "Profil" magazine (notice that the "Krone" was always very favourable towards Strache and the FPÖ until recently):

"The FPÖ is done !" and "Endgame !"

 

[Tender Branson]

BREAKING NEWS:

Far-right FPÖ-leader Strache to offer Kurz and VdB his resignation as Vice-Chancellor in ca. 1-2 hours.

The FPÖ wants to continue the coalition with the ÖVP with Norbert Hofer, but it's not clear yet if Kurz will accept this or call for early elections ...

Strache has been FPÖ-leader for 14 years.

https://orf.at/stories/3122842

[Tender Branson]

Hopefully this coalition ends now and FPÖ never rises to power again.

Would Kurz form another grand coalition without new elections? What the use of that? ÖVP-SPÖ have a comfortable majority. A new election wouldn't change that much other than the FPÖ losing a few points.

According to the Standard's latest live-ticker post, new early elections are all but certain - because Chancellor Kurz has apparently refused to continue the coalition even with Norbert Hofer as new FPÖ-leader.

ÖVP-SPÖ without new elections won't make any sense, because Kurz hates the SPÖ.

If new elections are called, they will likely be held in late September (after the school holidays are over) or in October.

The most likely scenario is that Kurz will receive a huge amount of FPÖ-voters, getting 40%+ and then he can form a government with NEOS and/or Greens.

BTW: Strache will announce his [very likely] resignation in 15 minutes, live here:

https://tvthek.orf.at/live/ZIB-Spezial-zur-Causa-Ibiza/14014983

[Tender Branson]

Does Strache risk jail?
Because what he did looks like treason right?

Yes. The SPÖ has already filed a charge against Strache and Gudenus with the state corruption prosecution.

Ernst Strasser, the former Austrian Interior Minister from the ÖVP and member of the EU parliament, once did roughly the same thing as Strache and Gudenus in that video ("cash for laws") and got a 3-year prison sentence.