Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)

[Tender Branson]

After the recent brutal murder of a welfare agency worker by an illegal asylum seeker in Dornbirn, FPÖ Interior Minister Kickl has brought up the idea of a "preventive imprisonment" for illegal asylum seekers or accepted asylum seekers with previous crimes.

Kurz now wants to act quickly and pass a new law for asylum seekers to put them into preventive imprisonment, which apparently doesn't need a 2/3 majority in parliament (unlike if such a measure also includes Austrian citizens).

In fact, many EU countries already allow preventive imprisonment of illegal/already criminal asylum seekers, to avoid further crimes.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/kanzler-macht-bei-sicherungshaft-tempo-rechtlich-saubere-loesung/400423991

[Tender Branson]

The new uniforms of the Austrian Army are now officially worn, starting today.

Thank Goodness, because the old ones looked like straight out of WW2 or North Korea ...

New combat uniforms and helmets:





New army base uniforms:



Old ones:



https://www.kleinezeitung.at/steiermark/5589107/CamouflageLook_Ab-heute-sehen-TarnUniformen-des-Bundesheeres

[Tender Branson]

    Tender, in your area do you see lots of foreign workers?  Looks like Hungarians and Rumanians and other East Europeans predominate.  Do you see this throughout Austria, or more just in the big urban areas?

Foreign workers now make up 20%+ of the workforce here, which is higher than their population share. And it is not just in urban areas, but everywhere. Obviously, the labour market needs some additional skilled workers from abroad, but not the unqualified people from the Middle East or Africa. We have 300.000 unemployed Austrians (as I have mentioned above), where our companies have a social responsibility to hire them and train them properly for a period of time (even if this takes longer than just hiring a skilled worker from another EU country).

[Tender Branson]

Municipal elections take place on Sunday here in Salzburg and its 119 cities and towns for a new 5-year term.

I have already voted via post for the SPÖ mayoral candidate and SPÖ for city council.

My prediction for Zell am See mayor:

58% Peter Padourek (ÖVP, incumbent) (-8% compared with 2014)
37% Andreas Wimmreuter (SPÖ) (+8%)
  5% Werner Hörl (Greens) (n.c.)

The SPÖ candidate is obviously hurt by the presence of a Green candidate on the ballot, while there is no FPÖ or NEOS candidate there to hurt the ÖVP candidate.

For the city council, the FPS will run instead of the FPÖ.

My prediction:

50% ÖVP (-3%)
34% SPÖ (+4%)
  8% Greens (-1%)
  8% FPS (n.c. vs. FPÖ in 2014)

In Radstadt for example, ÖVP (!) and SPÖ (!) did not find a candidate for mayor who wanted to run, so the FPÖ candidate Pewny will be the only one on the ballot. He still needs to get approved by the voters, such as other lone mayoral candidates in other towns. If more than 50% vote "no", a new mayor needs to be elected by the new city council.

In the state capital, Salzburg City (155.000 people), the results should be along the lines of the poll I posted above and there will definitely be a runoff between Preuner (ÖVP) and Auinger (SPÖ) 2 weeks later and I have no clue who wins. It will be close again, with a very, very slight advantage for Preuner. But I would not be shocked if Auinger wins this time.

https://www.salzburg.gv.at/stat/wahlen/bmw/index2019.html#erg.5.1.0.0

https://www.salzburg.gv.at/stat/wahlen/gvw/index2019.html#erg.5.0.0.0

[Tender Branson]

After FPÖ-leader Strache recently took paternal leave after the birth of their child, the next Austrian party leader will take maternal leave soon:



Liberal NEOS-leader Beate Meinl-Reisinger (already highly pregnant) will be absent for the next month or two and miss most of the EU election campaign.

[Tender Branson]

Does the FPO have any vulnerability on their right flank, given that they are a governing party now?

Nope.

There are some fringe Auxit groups to the right of the FPÖ and actual Neonazis, but the first groups are small and fragmented and the second, if they were to establish their own parties, would be banned.

Besides, the FPÖ is still holding up quite well after more than a year in government: their supporters are mostly happy, even the far-right ones. Trouble would only start if they drop below 20% in the polls, which seems unlikely ATM.

[Tender Branson]

  Just keep the deportation numbers rising, new asylum requests downward and I think most FPO voters would be happy. Also, it would be nice to see the new direct democracy law, in spite of its high signature threshold, activated, but of course thats not to allowed until after this parliament is over, IIRC.

Yeah, more direct democracy is something that ÖVP-FPÖ is planning for 2022, or in their 2nd term.

[Tender Branson]

2 new polls today, everything very stable:



https://www.heute.at/politik/news/story/Kurz-fliegt-allen-davon--Gruene-wiedergeboren-49512316



https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Umfrage-Rendi-rutscht-ab-FPOe-schon-Zweite/370910425

[Tender Branson]

About 35.000 postal ballots have been requested for the municipal elections here in Salzburg tomorrow.

That is a lot more than in 2014, when just 27.000 were requested and roughly the same amount as for the 2018 state election.

Not sure what this means for turnout overall but I expect about a 70% turnout tomorrow.

[Tender Branson]

By a vote of 45-18, the Austrian Protestant Church assembly decided today to allow LGBT's to be married in their Church(es).

Gay marriage is legal since Jan. 1 this year.

https://evang.at/schritt-richtung-gleichberechtigung-oeffentlicher-segnungsgottesdienst-fuer-alle

Good.

Will be interesting to see when the Catholic Church and Muslims will follow ... maybe in 200 years ?

[Tender Branson]

Municipal elections (city councils and 1st rounds of mayoral elections) here in the state of Salzburg today.

In 119 cities and for a new 5 year term.

The first polls will open around 7am and close at noon in some smaller towns and then up until 5pm in bigger cities.

I‘m mostly interested in the results of my city (Zell am See) and that of the towns in the district + the results of the capital Salzburg City (155.000 people).

The weather is cold and mostly dry in the South and a bit warmer but rainy in the North.

[Tender Branson]

My prediction for Salzburg City today:

Mayor (1st round)

33.1% - Harald Preuner (ÖVP, incumbent)
31.5% - Bernhard Auinger (SPÖ)
13.5% - Martina Berthold (Greens)
10.9% - Andreas Reindl (FPÖ)
  6.4% - Lukas Paul Rösslhuber (NEOS)
  2.6% - Christoph Ferch (SALZ)
  1.8% - Kay-Michael Dankl (KPÖ+)
  0.2% - Hadwig Soyoye-Rothschädl (Left)

City Council

34.2% - SPÖ
27.9% - ÖVP
13.3% - Greens
10.9% - FPÖ
  7.1% - NEOS
  2.6% - SALZ
  2.0% - FPS
  1.8% - KPÖ+
  0.2% - Left

[Tender Branson]

A first trend should come in about 1 hour, when the first polls close at noon in some small towns - such as Krimml, a tourist magnet because of Europe's highest waterfalls and recovery spot for those with breath or lung disease like asthma.

http://www.wasserfaelle-krimml.at/en/be-amazed/natural-remedy

[Tender Branson]

Municipal elections (city councils and 1st rounds of mayoral elections) here in the state of Salzburg today.

In 119 cities and for a new 5 year term.

The first polls will open around 7am and close at noon in some smaller towns and then up until 5pm in bigger cities.

I‘m mostly interested in the results of my city (Zell am See) and that of the towns in the district + the results of the capital Salzburg City (155.000 people).

The weather is cold and mostly dry in the South and a bit warmer but rainy in the North.

A first trend should come in about 1 hour, when the first polls close at noon in some small towns - such as Krimml, a tourist magnet because of Europe's highest waterfalls and recovery spot for those with breath or lung disease like asthma.

http://www.wasserfaelle-krimml.at/en/be-amazed/natural-remedy

Result for mayor in Krimml:

67.6% (+8.5%) Erich Czerny (ÖVP-Inc.)
32.4%  (-8.5%) Johann Leutgeb (SPÖ)

ÖVP gains 3.7% in the city council to 57.9%

Turnout: 79.3%

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ loses 11.2% in Weißpriach and therefore their relative majority in the city council there (down to 28.9%).

The ÖVP gains 10.5% to 47.4%, while the SPÖ gains 0.7% to 23.7%.

Turnout: 88.3% (+2.1%)

[Tender Branson]

First mayoral pickup ... for the ÖVP, in Muhr:

57.9% (+18.6%) Hans‑Jürgen Schiefer (ÖVP)
31.6% (-29.1%) Christian Kremser (SPÖ)
10.5% (+10.5%) Petra Krznar (FPÖ)

Turnout: 88.9%

The ÖVP is doing pretty well in the small towns so far ... could be a trend.

[Tender Branson]

Another 2 smaller towns in, one with moderate SPÖ-gains and another with big ÖVP-gains.

[Tender Branson]

Now some bigger towns/cities will close their polls.

But it should be obvious that the ÖVP is doing well, SPÖ and FPÖ not so much.

Greens, NEOS are only on the ballot in some of the big cities.

[Tender Branson]

Another mayoral pickup for the ÖVP in Mariapfarr, where Kaiser Andreas defeats Doppler Franz (SPÖ) by 57-36-7.

The SPÖ loses 24%, while the ÖVP gains 17% and the FPÖ 7%.

[Tender Branson]

With 16 (small towns) of 119 counted, the ÖVP gains 7%, SPÖ -5%, FPÖ -4% and Others +2%.

[Tender Branson]

The first big one has come in (Kuchl, with almost 6.000 eligible voters):

SPÖ +8%
ÖVP +4%
NEOS +2%

Greens: -11%
FPÖ: -3%

[Tender Branson]

The SPÖ wins a close one in Ramingstein:

51.8% Pagitsch Günther (SPÖ) +3.5%
48.2% Kocher Leonhard (ÖVP)  -3.5%

Turnout: 84.9% (+1.9%)

Pickup SPÖ from ÖVP.

[Tender Branson]

Here in Zell am See district, the SPÖ has gained a mayor from the ÖVP so far while the ÖVP gained one from the SPÖ.

Statewide, with 54/119 cities reporting, the ÖVP gained 3% in the combined municipal vote while the SPÖ, FPÖ and Greens lost 1% each.

[Tender Branson]

Christian Pewny (FPÖ) elected new mayor of Radstadt with 70% and 30% No-votes.

SPÖ and ÖVP didn't find a candidate to oppose him.

[Tender Branson]

Results for Zell am See City are in and surprisingly, this will head to a runoff:

46.2%  (-19.5%) Peter Padourek (ÖVP, incumbent)
40.8% (+11.7%) Andreas Wimmreuter (SPÖ)
13.0%   (+7.8%) Werner Hörl (Greens)

City council:

41.8% ÖVP (-10.5%)
39.9% SPÖ (+9.9%)
14.3% Greens (+5.0%)
  4.0% FPS (-4.4%)

Very interesting results compared with the statewide pro-ÖVP trend.

Huge results for SPÖ + Greens.