Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)

[Tender Branson]

https://www.twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1142408320382316544

[Tender Branson]

While the other parties are preparing their election campaigns, the SPÖ is ironing in Burgenland:

https://www.twitter.com/blau_gelb_dani/status/1142319827769602049

[Tender Branson]

What would an OVP/Green coalition government be like from the point of view of policy? How much would change with the FPO being replaced by the Greens as the junior partner?

A couple things:

* First, an ÖVP-Green coalition might not happen for 2 reasons: because it's not possible electorally (something like 35% ÖVP, 11% Greens) or 49%-49% for the government and opposition blocks but you need a few additional surplus seats for a stable government - or because the main actors are opposed to such a coalition. On the other hand, an ÖVP-Green government would make the most sense (together with NEOS, if they are needed) because it would be the most centrist, the most non-controversial and stable coalition with no headwinds from Europe.

* Second, not trying such a coalition would be incredibly stupid on the part of Kurz and the ÖVP. Why ? If Kurz would opt for the FPÖ again, they get a stronger coalition partner with more demands and controversial people again. Plus, Europe would cry out again. With the Greens entering parliament again and probably finishing around 10-14%, the chances of big demands are lower than with the FPÖ as coalition partner. Especially on the topic of migration, asylum and security. The FPÖ would claim it is "their" topics again, where they want to be in charge. The Greens on the other hand have learned their part over the last years and largely shut up on the topic of immigration and focused on environment and social topics instead. By entering parliament again and then shouting aloud again: "WE WANT MORE IMMIGRANTS IN AUSTRIA !" they would risk being kicked out of parliament again, or being demonized again by the public and other parties. The Greens will therefore make moves towards the center and the ÖVP will also move to the center during such coalition talks.

* Third, if the people involved in the talks are willing to create such a government it should be easier than in the past, especially after the disaster talks between ÖVP-Greens in 2002 - then led by Schüssel and Van der Bellen. Van der Bellen is now President and will certainly look for a better ending this time for his Greens. He will act as mediator and will be a huge factor in creating such a government. Besides, all the ÖVP-Greens governments in the states (such as in Vorarlberg, Tyrol, Salzburg, Upper Austria) were all successful and were re-elected. If the Greens can get their Vienna-group in line and the ÖVP their farmers and business wings, then a coalition could be coming by Christmas. I think they will find some compromises on the economy, debt, taxes and especially the environment.

[Tender Branson]

Here is the map of winners by district in the EU election:



Considering a 5.5% swing based on current polls, the SPÖ could lose almost all their strongholds to the ÖVP in September, which would be a catastrophe for them:



Only Vienna as a whole, Linz, Steyr and Villach + suburbs could remain as SPÖ-wins.

They could lose all their former industrial, working-class districts in Styria (mining, steel) to the ÖVP and could not win a single (!) district in Burgenland.

[Tender Branson]

Here is the map of winners by district in the EU election:



Considering a 5.5% swing based on current polls, the SPÖ could lose almost all their strongholds to the ÖVP in September, which would be a catastrophe for them:



Only Vienna as a whole, Linz, Steyr and Villach + suburbs could remain as SPÖ-wins.

They could lose all their former industrial, working-class districts in Styria (mining, steel) to the ÖVP and could not win a single (!) district in Burgenland.

To be fair, polls are predicting what, 38-23 for the ÖVP?

If the results was reversed, you would see the opposite, a completely red map with a handful of pockets of cyan.

Not really, there would be more rural ÖVP areas in such a case than urban SPÖ areas in the upcoming case, as the rural areas seem to still be more loyal to the ÖVP in such wave elections.

[Tender Branson]

How is the SPO-FPO government in Burgenland seen these days by the public and the party cadre?

There will be state elections in January next year. They were called a few months earlier than normal (May), but that is usually not uncommon. But with Ibiza, it is more likely now that the SPÖ dumps the FPÖ next year, despite the government being mostly OK (it’s not like the FPÖ has much to say there ...)

[Tender Branson]

Brand-new ATV/Hajek/POS poll (n=800 eligible voters aged 16+, June 24-28, MoE = +/- 3.5%):

38% ÖVP (+6.5)
20% FPÖ (-6.0)
20% SPÖ (-6.9)
11% Greens (+7.2)
  9% NEOS (+3.7)
  1% NOW (-3.4)
  1% Others (-1.1)

Link

[Tender Branson]

Also from the new ATV poll:

The 10 most important issues in the coming election campaign.

31% climate change, environmental protection
24% immigration, integration, asylum
19% affordable housing
18% pensions
16% health care
16% old-age care
11% corruption
10% crime
  9% education, kindergarten, universities
  7% creation of new jobs

https://derstandard.at/2000105602103/43-Prozent-der-Oesterreicher-wollen-mehr-Geld-fuer-das-Bundesheer

That's pretty good for the Greens, because until now "immigration, integration, asylum" has always topped the list of most important issues by a big margin.

But considering June has set new heat records all over Europe and also here in Austria (June was 6°C hotter (!) than the average June of the past 30 years), the Greens can only benefit from the changing climate ...

[Tender Branson]

Looks like Green phenomena has swept to Austria as well. Obviously they take most votes from the SPÖ.

If Kurz wins the election, I hope he forms a coalition with the NEOS to establish a centrist, pro-EU government.

ÖVP-NEOS will likely not be possible ... but ÖVP-Greens could be.

[Tender Branson]

The coming week will see a final rush of policy proposals being brought before parliament, now that there’s room for fluid majorities due to the ÖVP-FPÖ government collapse.

We could see several important topics being passed, ranging from higher pensions to strengthening bi-national LGBT marriages, banning glyphosate, the re-introduction of a public smoking ban, raising old-age care money, a plastic packaging ban, increasing the time for paternal leave or a return of the 20.000+ job offensive from the SPÖ that the government killed. Most of the initiatives will likely be passed by varying majorities by different parties.

Parliament will then enter summer recess and return to work in September, slightly ahead of the election.

https://www.vn.at/titelblatt/2019/06/28/plastiktasche-wird-geschichte.vn

[Tender Branson]

Kurz wants to make Austria Hydrogen-country #1:

The ÖVP will present their climate plans tomorrow, which include 500 million € in support for companies who settle in Austria to develop hydrogen cars or better hydrogen power units.

A major hydrogen business cluster should be established in the country, where companies can share their know-how on the topic and the hydrogen grid to re-fill the cars should be significantly expanded.


Source: Wikipedia

On the other hand, the ÖVP also wants to promote e-cars and to make Austria 100% carbon-neutral by 2045.

The ÖVP is against any additional taxes though to burden the middle-class, or further bans.

https://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/5652197/OeVP-setzt-fuer-das-Klima-auf-Wasserstoff

[Tender Branson]

The SPÖ is attacking 6-year old Linda who gave a letter to Kurz recently, in which she wrote that she's disappointed how "people have taken on Kurz".

The 6-year old girl calls herself "a devoted fan of Kurz since age 4 already" and says "she's unhappy that she cannot vote yet, but wishes him all the best for the coming election".

The SPÖ calls bullsh*t and says the letter and video is staged and that Kurz instrumentalizes small children for his political campaign ...



Source: Kurz's Instagram page

This is all pretty funny, because the SPÖ had small kids on 2 of their EU campaign posters.

https://www.heute.at/politik/news/story/Spott-nach-Fanpost-von-Maedchen--6--an-Kurz-48780382

[Tender Branson]

The party "NOW" is falling apart:

Today, 5 of their original 8 (and currently 7) MPs announced that they will either not run again for parliament in the September election or run for the Greens. At least one, Alma Zadic, has said that she will try to get a spot on the federal Green list (which the Greens confirmed). That's not a sure thing yet, because the Greens have an internal IRV primary system for their lists. The other 4 have just said they will not run again, or will return to their previous jobs.

That means only party founder Peter Pilz and Daniela Holzinger are left to run in the coming election, because the 6th (Martha Bissmann) was kicked out of the party last year. It's likely that Holzinger and party leader Maria Stern also leave the party and Pilz is left on his own ...

Anyway, Pilz said that they will still run in the election and will present a new list with different people by the end of July ...

https://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/5653299/Fuenf-von-sieben-Abgeordneten-treten-nicht-mehr-fuer-Jetzt-an

[Tender Branson]

HUGE day in parliament !

Things that were passed today by varying majorities:

* new party finance laws, with a cap for private and business donations and a public financing bonus for 40%+ women in a parliamentary group

* a constitutional ban on privatizing Austria's water, to prevent water sales to foreign businesses or countries (take a close look Strache, you will not sell our water to the Russians !)

* ÖVP-FPÖ's pro-smoking law was killed and a complete public smoking ban will be introduced in November.

* much higher minimum pensions after 40 years of contributions (1.315€, 14x per year).

* more paternal leave for fathers, now with a legal framework and better protection so that companies cannot opt out or fire the male employee if he states his wish to go on parental leave.

* a total ban on glyphosate in Austria

* a total ban on gay conversion therapies in Austria

* a total ban on plastic packings and bags starting in January 2021 (companies were given some time to get rid of their stock of current bags in the next 1.5 years).

* first-responders in jobs, who are called to an emergency by working for the Red Cross, Firefighters, etc. will get better financial protection in case they have to leave their jobs for a few days. Now, all voluntary work will be compensated instead of taking a private holiday.

* ÖVP-FPÖ-NEOS also unveiled plans for a constitutional debt and deficit brake again, which could be passed in parliament in the September session. They have a 2/3 majority in the Nationalrat, but not in the Bundesrat where the SPÖ could block it.

[Tender Branson]

The ban on gay conversion therapies in Austria was passed with the votes of all 5 parties today, incl. the FPÖ:

https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20190702_OTS0245/nationalrat-einstimmig-fuer-gesetzliches-verbot-von-konversionstherapien-an-minderjaehrigen

According to Wikipedia, that would make Austria the 1st country (?!?) in Europe to ban the practice.

[Tender Branson]

The BZÖ wants to try again a last time and run in the coming election, after not doing so in 2017:

https://derstandard.at/2000104731795/Das-BZOe-will-zur-Nationalratswahl-wiederauferstehen

LOL.

They will run under the name of "Alliance of Patriots" (AdP) and their main proposals are an exit from the EU and the Euro, a guaranteed non-conditional basic income, promotion and protection of the traditional family, "real" and not hyped/fake environmental protection and anti-vaxxing as an individual choice of parents to promote freedom.

[Tender Branson]

Yesterday, the final plenary day in parliament before the summer break led to another flurry of important laws being passed, among them:

* Lex Uber: Consolidation of the taxi laws in Austria, which means Uber and others will be forced to comply with the taxi umbrella organisations rules to avoid price dumping. Uber is not amused, ontrary to the taxi organisation, but will remain in Austria for the time being (the law will only take effect in September 2020).

* Sex-education in schools: With the votes of ÖVP-FPÖ, external consulting groups for sex education in public schools were banned after it emerged that one such group handed out information brochures critical of gays and lesbians as "abnormal" or "mentally ill".

* Better e-government online services in the future, which allows citizens and companies to aquire documents such as birth certificates etc. online quickly.

Additionally, the election date of Sept. 29th was made official yesterday.

[Tender Branson]

* Lex Uber: Consolidation of the taxi laws in Austria, which means Uber and others will be forced to comply with the taxi umbrella organisations rules to avoid price dumping. Uber is not amused, ontrary to the taxi organisation, but will remain in Austria for the time being (the law will only take effect in September 2020).

The law is good only for the limited number of taxi drivers and companies who are protected by such laws. Everybody else loses.

It seems that all taxi drivers + all Uber drivers using rental cars will be effected by the new law (which is a merger of the taxi transportation and rental car transportation laws). Same rules and regulations for everyone, incl. the same set of prices. There's probably only a few black sheep left.

[Tender Branson]

HUGE day in parliament !

Things that were passed today by varying majorities:

Some of the new laws that were passed in parliament this week are already budgeted for the next years, while others are not.

The Finance Minister has calculated that the non-budgeted laws/amendments will cost ca. 1.2 Bio. € (or ca. 300 Mio. € a year) until 2022.

That's OK though, because Austria will have budget surpluses of ca. 0.6% (= 2.4 Bio. € annually) in the coming 3 years.



Source: Austrian Press Agency/APA

[Tender Branson]

New Ö24/Research Affairs poll (June 27-July 4, n=1.002, MoE= +/- 3.2%):



Vote by gender:



Preference of first-time voters vs. recently-retired voters:



Chancellor vote:

[Tender Branson]

In other news, there's still a lot of bad blood between the ÖVP and SPÖ, as seen yesterday:

* In one case, SPÖ-leader Pamela Rendi-Wagner said during her PULS 4 TV summer interview that the ÖVP is basically a prostitute & that the party was "buyable" by wealthy corporate donors ahead of the 2017 election.

* In the other case, parliamentary speaker (!) Wolfgang Sobotka (ÖVP) shouted & gestured wildly during the final parliament session, getting a red head like a tomato and almost exploded while listening to SPÖ's Leichtfried's speech.

https://twitter.com/mxpttr/status/1146360558461050881
Therefore I still think that ÖVP-SPÖ is DOA and ÖVP-FPÖ, ÖVP-Greens-NEOS or ÖVP-Greens will happen.

[Tender Branson]

Tender, who do you prefer as chancellor from the three major party leaders?

Pamela Rendi-Wagner.

But I will vote for the Greens this time and Werner Kogler would make a good Chancellor too.

[Tender Branson]

New Ö24/Research Affairs poll (June 27-July 4, n=1.002, MoE= +/- 3.2%)

It should be noted that this poll also had a sub-sample of states and Vienna has ca. 200 respondents, so it can be looked at, and the results there are fascinating:

31% SPÖ
30% ÖVP

In 2017, the SPÖ was 13% ahead of the ÖVP in the capital ... now a swing of 12% there apparently.

And in case of an actual ÖVP-win in the capital, it would be the biggest embarrassment for the SPÖ in more than 100 years of party history. The SPÖ was once at 70% in Vienna ...

[Tender Branson]

The rising Greens are voting on their federal list for the election tomorrow at a convention in Vienna:

https://twitter.com/Gruene_Austria/status/1146052470944260096
There are 26 major candidates who are running for 14 spots. History has shown that about 8-12 candidates from the federal list will end up in parliament, with the others coming from the state or regional lists.

Among the 26 candidates are former MPs for the Greens, journalists and people from the culture sector, several important NGO people, such as from Global 2000 or Greenpeace, as well as 2 Pirates, a prominent Social-Media "influencer" with Madeleine "DariaDaria" Alizadeh and Alma Zadic, who left the failing NOW party for the Greens.

[Tender Branson]

The Austrian Beer Party has announced their candidacy for September 29:


(Source: Austrian Beer Party)

"Our slogan: Tight into the future !"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LUkO2jbQg0w