2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

How is everyone feeling about Biden's chances right now?

And about Trump's chances?

I'm gonna guess a 270 EV Biden win followed by recounts, legal drama, maybe even congressional drama if there's a faithless elector.

So we're not on track to win PA and/or GA?

We probably are.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1324033062754160643

Yeah...Biden's gonna win PA.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Ok I woke up.
What happened?

Biden up in MI, WI, AZ so he's at 270. He'll probably take at least one of PA/GA.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Can Biden even still win PA at this point?  How possible really is that right now?

Yes, more than 1.2 million ballots are left.

Those skew 75-24 Biden.

Trump's lead is 480.000 right now, but Biden will net more than 600.000 out of the remaining ballots.

Biden will finish ca. 100.000 ahead of Trump.

Please god let it be!

This is crazy. How is Georgia & North Carolina looking?

Trump will win NC, Biden narrowly favoured in GA.

Fools gold.

Such a weird hill to die on.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Current swing map:

I guess Hillary really did have residual Arkansas support.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I gotta say, I cannot believe voters still split their ballots for Susan Collins after all this.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Control of the senate will likely hinge on the runoff in Georgia glad its Warnock vs Loeffler Cunningham looks toast and its looking really hard for Gideon to pull off a win in Maine but theirs a lot of votes left to count their so lets see

Warnock will win imo no matter who wins the GE Pres.
It’s a bold claim, but I have been saying it for a while now.
Him going against Loeffler of all people will make it even better.

It seems like it should be a slam dunk given how terrible a candidate Loeffler is; however, Warnock was one of the biggest underperformers of the entire map.  He got 32% when polls had him in the 40s.

Loeffler+Collins also underperformed. And he should inch upwards as Atlanta comes in. Looks like all the other random candidates overperformed.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I’m starting to think something stinks here

https://twitter.com/DavidManel/status/1323921182622732288
These numbers seem impossible

Trump likely converted a lot of Hispanic Clinton voters in these counties.

Except he didn't. That's what I find weird. Biden retained the same number of votes as her, just tens of thousands of net-new Trumpers emerged.

Take Hidalgo County, TX.

https://twitter.com/AlxThomp/status/1324022658137284609
People are claiming I am a conspiracy theorist, but I am genuinely curious where these voters came from. It's just surprising to me. I get Miami Dade, the Cuban trends were clear. But this?

I don’t want to insinuate anything, but Southern TX was infamous for voter fraud back in the day.

I don't believe it and we don't have any actual evidence to imply it. Let's not start throwing around allegations, okay? Ya know...for the sake of democracy.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Control of the senate will likely hinge on the runoff in Georgia glad its Warnock vs Loeffler Cunningham looks toast and its looking really hard for Gideon to pull off a win in Maine but theirs a lot of votes left to count their so lets see

Uhh are you bad at math

If Gideon and Cunningham loses the Senate is over

Ah sorry I should have clarified I also meant hoping the remaining mail ins drag Perdue down to a runoff

Right. But don't try and have a conversation with MillenialModerate about Georgia.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I’m starting to think something stinks here

https://twitter.com/DavidManel/status/1323921182622732288
These numbers seem impossible

Trump likely converted a lot of Hispanic Clinton voters in these counties.

Except he didn't. That's what I find weird. Biden retained the same number of votes as her, just tens of thousands of net-new Trumpers emerged.

Take Hidalgo County, TX.

https://twitter.com/AlxThomp/status/1324022658137284609
People are claiming I am a conspiracy theorist, but I am genuinely curious where these voters came from. It's just surprising to me. I get Miami Dade, the Cuban trends were clear. But this?

These counties in South Texas have always had anemic turnout. If they're engaged, turnouts gonna boom. Trump's gain was a mix of persuasion and turnout out low propensity voters for him. But Biden's still going to gain votes if turnout increases that much.

It just seems odd bc Trump put no effort into TX (like he did FL)

He doesn't have to personally go to TX to attract these voters. My guess is that these voters may have liked Trump's message outside of immigration in 2016 but his focus on immigration drove them away. Now that he stopped talking about it they flocked to him.

The Tejanos were always a group that could swing R, especially with Trump at the top of the ticket. They're working class and strongly disconnected from the pro-suburbanite message of the Biden campaign. This was definitely going on for a while. Dave Wasserman wouldn't shut up about it and Kamala Harris made a last minute trip to McAllen.

It's long been said that Hispanics were a natural constituency for the GOP if they stopped talking about immigration. Perhaps there was some truth to that.

Didn't Bush actually win Tejanos? Like Hillary was obviously uniquely strong with Latinos, but this isn't 2004 all over again.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Couldn't be prouder of my state. We've rejected this disaster of a President and ironically will kick him out with a similar to margin to his in 2016.

With WI and MI going for Biden, it's lights out for Trump.

I wonder what that feels like.

Just be proud of your county. But ashamed of your metro area.

Seriously though, it's crazy that Democrats can lose Florida while winning Duval, Pinellas, and Seminole.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Any chance Biden can pull Ossoff over 50? I'm guessing no?

No. It might be possible for Ossoff to get a plurality, though.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

The swings in WI are super fascinating. Atlas is going to a field day analyzing all the results once we get the complete results. Looks like Biden won because of a few factors:
1) Turnout in Milwaukee County: Hillary won +162K, while Biden won it by +183K
2) Turnout in Dane County: Hillary won +132K, while Biden won it by +181K
3) Decreased R margins in WOW: Hillary lost by -104K, while lost them by -97K depite a huge turnout increase

Combined, these 3 areas gave Hillary a net margin of +180K, while Biden won them by +267K

In the rest of WI, Hillary lost by -203K, while Biden lost by -246k!

#TrendsAreReal

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I think that Georgia looks very unlikely, but how does the Times needle still favor Biden? What am I missing?

Brain cells. It’s been the most predictable of the none safe states since ... November of 2016. But alas

Why are you so hung up on this? Either way Georgia will be ridiculously slim. There was no actual REASON to think it was impossible after the left trends in 2016 and 2018. You just keep saying that for absolutely no reason. What a bizarre hill to die on, especially for someone who apparently lives nowhere near Georgia you seem awfully emotional about it.

It's trolling. These doomers want the worst case scenario. GoTfan is the same, I would just put them on mute at this point or just don't engage and let them troll. Once the results are in, there in. If everything goes Biden's way, they'll go on and on about Biden not performing, a few don't go his way, they go on and on about how they were right. It's grifting.

I just don't get trolling. Like what do they get out of spending hours online making unverifiable claims? Seems like such a waste...

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Can Biden really break 80% in Multnomah?

Probably.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Is Nassau, NY really going Trump? Ngl that came out of nowhere.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

What I’m hoping for:

-Joe Biden wins the EC
-Peters maintains his senate seat
-Perdue is pushed below 50%

Is this too much to ask?

There is not a snowballs chance in hell that the republicans lose Georgia with the senate on the line. And that’s separate if my normal Georgia ranting. There is literally no chance. Turnout will be depressed for the casual voter. I’d beg for a chance to bet on it

At this point, high propensity voters in GA probably favor Democrats.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Officials in Maricopa County, which includes Phoenix, have said they will update results around 9 p.m. Eastern (7 p.m. local time) on Wednesday.

Okay, but why not sooner?  How long does it really take to count these things?

In a reasonable system? Maybe an hour.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Why was Georgia the only state where the polls seem to be accurate?

Seems like they were also pretty accurate in Colorado, Maine, Minnesota, and New Hampshire.

Uh no?
Maine 2 was said to be voting for Biden, I don't think he won a single county in the district. Maine is such a big win rn coz all of Cumberland is in while theres still a decent portion in Maine 2nd like 20%.

Mostly true, although a good chunk of the vote is still out in the blue counties along the coast north of Portland.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Let's say that Biden ends up winning 2016 + MI/WI/PA + AZ + GA, would this still be considered an underwhelming victory?

It shouldn't be. That's a thoroughly middle-of-the-projections result.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Wow, the last batch of Forsyth votes actually went D. Assuming they are all mail-in votes at this point.

Trump is only at 66.5% of support in Forsyth county.

I predicted 65-35.  Would love to see it come down to that number with the remaining absentees, if any.

Ossoff over 30% in Forsyth. Can he keep Purdue below 50% with those margins?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Is anyone watching the House?  It's been called for the Dems by every news org, but it seems a bit premature to me.  Dems only have 208/218 seats called, and most of the remaining ones are R leads.

I checked and I think the dem house majority will survive, but there are some really sad losses all the same.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-house.html

At the same time, we should be making some gains. Bordeaux is a lock and I think Schweikert narrowly goes down. CA-08 could get interesting...

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Perdue down to 50.4% statewide.

My back of the napkin figures say if Biden pulls out Georgia, it should knock him under 50.

Biden has to figure out a bold strategy to get Georgians to give us the Senate.

Two Runoff's in Georgia with a unpopular incumbent in Loeffler and God knows what Trump does in the lame duck and if Mitch refuses to do stimulus before the special elections. It could be a perfect storm and the organizing effort in Atlanta has been amazing, I have a friend who does work out there (she's worked with Ossoff before) and I'd be very confident in GOTV for those two elections especially that you can registered new voters for that election by December 7th. What looked like a nightmare may turn into Biden/Harris Administration's favor. It would also be a test for Schumer and his leadership in the Senate.

Perdue outperforming Trump is very concerning though. Democrats can go 2/2, but it will require an absolutely massive effort.

Honestly, it's just a question of turnout. Which groups will be more enthused? I honestly don't know.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Can Biden really break 80% in Multnomah?

Possibly... still getting caught up with updates after having slept in following covering the swing / grave shift on Atlas / Talk Election.   

I can't wait to read whatever uberdetailed Oregon analysis you come up with!

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

ngl I like the Biden-306 map with Georgia surrounded by a sea of Republican states. A much better look than the last time that happened in 1980!

Yeah, this will genuinely be the (IMO) most aesthetic map since Lincoln

Nah. I think blue GA without blue FL looks weird.