NYT LIVE POLL THREAD:

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Where can I find the data for IL-06 and IL-12?

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Anyway, all these numbers seem believable. I think it's more likely than not to get worse for Roskam (based on what my best friend has alluded to who works for him) and Rohrabacher. Possibly Bost too.

I hope they poll some of ME-2, CA-25, CA-39, CA-10, and VA-2 next.

What makes you think it would get worse for Rohrabacher and Roskam? In both cases, the undecideds seem to lean Republican.

IL-06: "About 11 percent of voters said that they were undecided or refused to tell us whom they would vote for. On questions about issues, these voters most closely resembled Republicans."

It's currently 45 GOP - 44 DEM -11 UNDECIDED

CA-48: "About 10 percent of voters said that they were undecided or refused to tell us whom they would vote for. On questions about issues, these voters most closely resembled Republicans."

It's currently 45 GOP - 45 DEM - 10 UNDECIDED  

Trump has a 40% approval in both of these districts and a 54% disapproval

In addition, Rouda and Casten have very high amounts of people who don't know them but a high net favorable.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Even 500 is a pretty small sample, especially if you're going to use weighting which tends to increase the margin of error.

Yeah... nyt should either try to get the sample up to 800 or weight the results less

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Paulsen's locked down the pink vote


She's also woke as hell

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

My mind model says Phillips gets a 100% favorable rating once everyone knows him

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Umm...apparently the 10th WV-03 respondent disapproves of Trump, wants to see Dems take the House, and is going to vote for Miller.  Family member of hers?

Didn't know Solid lives in WV

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Manchin is polling poorly, because Miller has shown a strong connection to the opoids .And another problem , Trump has approval near 70. This will create coal blankets that sufficate voters

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

lmao @ that one guy who approves of Trump and is voting for Cruz in the Senate race calling himself an "UNDECIDED INDY"

Tbf, he doesn't like Will Hurd... this guy might be a little racially anxious

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I don't think the end result for TX-23 will be very accurate... the response rate is so dang low that I think they'll have a lot of trouble getting to even 400 respondents.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I think Brat will lead by 4-6 once the poll is finished.

So far looking right again.

Let's hope patriot Dave Brat keeps up this domination of the CIA creep.

Lol what? Dave Brat is a far righter (who we have 10 billion of in Congress anyways) who has contributed to the decay of our dysfunctional Congress.

Idk who Abigail is - they could be crazy. But Brat is one of the worst members of Congress, so it's pretty bizarre that you'd call him a "patriot", unless you're saying that ironically, or there is something wrong with your head. You don't see me calling losers like Menendez "patriot", because sometimes you have to admit someone is godawful.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I think Brat will lead by 4-6 once the poll is finished.

So far looking right again.

Let's hope patriot Dave Brat keeps up this domination of the CIA creep.

Lol what? Dave Brat is a far righter (who we have 10 billion of in Congress anyways) who has contributed to the decay of our dysfunctional Congress.

Idk who Abigail is - they could be crazy. But Brat is one of the worst members of Congress, so it's pretty bizarre that you'd call him a "patriot", unless you're saying that ironically, or there is something wrong with your head.

Because Congress was just pitch perfect before 2014 when Eric Cantor lost renomination to some economics professor?

Excuse me if I like guys who aren't just a lapdog for leadership all too eager to slop at the government trough.

The freedom caucus has been one of the biggest reasons Congress has been utterly useless for the past few years. They've even been sabotaging members of their own party (what has the GOP done in the past 2 years with their massive majority!?!?). How can anyone like the freedom cucks, unless they are cucks themselves?

Eric Cantor was a dud but at least he wasn't a freedom cucker.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

So Republicans are leading in every House race polled so far, except one in suburban Minneapolis. Why do we think the House is going to flip again?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Good job cucking yourself 1 minute after you posted.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

300 lv has a margin of error of 8%

1000 lv has a margin of error of 3%

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Perhaps this is what happens when you put faith in a mediocre pollster that has a small sample size, while using 2014 as the baseline for the demographics used. You get buggy numbers.

Freaking Siena is a mediocre pollster?

I've seen it all in this place.

Zaybay is a gigantic D hack. He is a world class contortonanist who tries to twist anything as good for dems, or discredit anything that isn't good for dems.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

If anyone seriously believes Ted Cruz is up 7 and Hurd is up 9 in Texas-23 in this current year, you need your head examined. Your first clue should be Trump's approval rating in a district Hillary Clinton of all people won by 4 points at a point in time where Trump is polling in the high-30's, low-40's nationally.

The problem I have accepting such a result is that Hurd barely won in 2014 - a Republican wave year, and in 2016, he also almost lost to his challenger, although TX's swing against Trump could have hurt him too, but that also means he should be even more vulnerable now.

On the other hand, it's been in print for a while now that both parties seem to think Hurd is, for the time being, polling ahead, so maybe it turns against him in the final weeks, like waves tend to do, or it doesn't. TX-23 being a Latino-heavy district gives me pause, as they aren't always a reliable base for Democrats (in both turnout and support).

My opinion is that even if Hurd holds on this year, he has a good chance of being knocked off in 2020.

Hurd's favorable rating has gotten a lot higher since 2016. A lot more people know and respect him now.


Not gonna bother responding to Zaybay, the user who cried when he realized black people can actually vote for Larry Hogan and aren't locked into voting dem.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Hm, idk. Primary turnout is usually *somewhat* indicative in ways, and the primary turnout in TX-23 was pretty lopsided (45k Dems vs. 31k Republicans) -- that's a substantial lead for Dems, so I don't really buy that this is a low turnout district in this case.

I'll wait for more to come in, but Hurd barely won in 2014 and 2016. There's no reason to believe that he suddenly became more popular in the past 2 years.

He was a first term congressman in 2016. He beat an incumbent in 2014.

Hurd has had multiple high profile attacks on Trump over immigration, health care, and Russia. He had a highly publicized road trip to DC with Beto.

Why can't atlas admit that Hurd has become a lot more popular? Is it because he's black?

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Also, the last minute DUI revelation was the only reason 2000 was close.

Nah, it is because Al Gore started wearing earth tones and made his populist💓 pitch.

http://www.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/time/2000/08/28/fight.html

Wow, politics was so incredibly lame back then.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

WI-01 voters want repubs to have the house 60-20 but #populist Bryce is tied 46-46!

Looks like IceSpear was wrong about candidate quality

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

WI-01 voters want repubs to have the house 60-20 but #populist Bryce is tied 46-46!

Looks like IceSpear was wrong about candidate quality

And with the margin of error at a mere 30 points no less. I've officially been rekt.

Oops, looks like Steil is up by double digits now. I win.

Generic ballot is R+30 and Bryce is only down by 10. This means that Bryce would win in districts like MI-01!

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Can someone explain why Bruce Polquin is so much more unpopular than Trump? Obviously the sample size is really low, so the results are unreliable, but 28-60 favorable rating compared to 47-46 Trump approval is a pretty huge gap.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Polls that closed-

FL-26: Mucarsel-Powell (D): 50%, Curbelo (R)*: 42%

ME-02: Golden (D): 42%, Poliquin (R): 47%

These NYT polls are becoming worse and worse as time goes on.

You not liking the result doesn't mean it's bad.

ME-02 is extremely rural, white, old, and uneducated. Guess which party does well with those demographics.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1040962624928792577

I think this is because of incumbency. Incumbents right now still have much better name recognition than their challengers.

I'm pretty sure Roskam and Rohribacher are getting destroyed once their challengers are more well known.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Only 31% of respondents know Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, but she's behind an incumbent with a +25 favourability rating (52/27) by only 3%, wow. I feel more optimistic about this race now, that's the type of name recognition-based lead that a metric ton of ads can easily override.

Also, I smell a rating change in NM-02, especially if Torres Small maintains her lead over Herrell after we cross the 500 respondent mark.

Pundits still haven't changed MN-03 or CO-06 to Lean D despite commanding D leads and strong dem fundamentals.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Repubs might have to untriage this race so Abby gigacoattails don't kill off Steve King

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

All completed polls so far:


IA-01: D+14
MN-02: D+12
AZ-02: D+11
CO-06: D+11
CA-49: D+10
NJ-03: D+10
MN-03: D+9
KS-03: D+8
PA-07: D+8
MI-11: D+7
CA-45: D+5
MN-08: D+1
KS-02: D+1
NM-02: D+1
WA-08: D+1
IA-03: D+1
CA-48: D+<1
KY-06: R+<1
IL-06: R+1
IL-12: R+1
NJ-07: R+1
TX-32: R+1
CA-25: R+2
FL-26: R+3
TX-07: R+3
MI-08: R+3
VA-07: R+4
ME-02: R+5
NC-09: R+5
WI-01: R+6
TX-23: R+7
WV-03: R+8
NE-02: R+9
OH-01: R+9
TX-31: R+15


So far, by my amazing statistical prediction model that exclusively uses NYT/Siena polls, dems have gained 17 house seats.