NYT LIVE POLL THREAD:

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

It's time to cut WV loose, and wish our candidates luck. Love ya Manchin, but for the good of the party and country, let's redirect all the party efforts and resources planned for Manchin to help put McCaskill and maybe another one or two over the top.

That would be incredibly stupid. WV is such a cheap state to run a campaign in because it is a small state with cheap media markets. Running a campaign in WV takes very little resources away from elsewhere.

[IceSpear]

Nice to see Dems reaping what they sow for disrespecting the rurals. Hope this is a good wake-up call for them to drop the unneeded cultural battles that the 1% likes and go back to their roots.

Except it's the GOP that brings up the unneeded cultural battles to keep the racist and bigoted hick rubes in their column. Works like a charm.

Don’t say that GOP voters care more about black people kneeling than they do economics or you’ll work the socialists into a frenzy

LOL, right, I forgot. WV would be solid D again if only Democrats would talk about seizing the means of production and dialectical materialism.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Polite request: can we limit this thread to discussing these live polls and take the candidate merit discussions to one of the other 5,329 threads that they're already in?

Good idea.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I wan't more VA-07, why did they stop polling there? Get back on the phones, people.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

It's time to cut WV loose, and wish our candidates luck. Love ya Manchin, but for the good of the party and country, let's redirect all the party efforts and resources planned for Manchin to help put McCaskill and maybe another one or two over the top.

LMAO.

Thinking we need to triage a Democratic Senate incumbent who's been comfortably leading in every poll taken because a Republican is leading an incomplete, unrelated house poll of 300 people by low single digits (and underperforming typical Republican performance in said district by 40 points) is Peak Bagel.

Never change.

[Jeppe]

I wan't more VA-07, why did they stop polling there? Get back on the phones, people.

They don't want to call people past a certain time. Some people (especially seniors) have early bedtimes, don't you know!

[IceSpear]

Who else remembers when the "#populists" in Southern West Virginia (and the rest of Appalachia) voted overwhelmingly for coastal elitist multimillionaire vulture capitalist Gordon Gekko-esque Willard "Mitt" Romney over the black guy from the Midwest raised from humble beginnings running a "populist" campaign emphasizing the auto industry bailout and Romney's shady business practices?

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Thinking we need to triage a Democratic Senate incumbent who's been comfortably leading in every poll taken because a Republican is leading an incomplete, unrelated house poll of 300 people by low single digits (and underperforming typical Republican performance in said district by 40 points) is Peak Bagel.

Yeah, realistically even if Ojeda doesn't gain back any ground before the poll finishes (which he may well in fact do), his opponent is under 50 and he apparently hasn't started even running his ads yet and is suffering from low name ID. So he still has a shot. And having a shot at all in WV-03 is pretty amazing.

For all the talk about Manchin, Manchin may also provide coattails to help push Ojeda over the top in the end.

[BBD]

LOL, right, I forgot. WV would be solid D again if only Democrats would talk about seizing the means of production and dialectical materialism.

If only Democrats had the guts.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I wan't more VA-07, why did they stop polling there? Get back on the phones, people.

They don't want to call people past a certain time. Some people (especially seniors) have early bedtimes, don't you know!

If that's what it is, they are not very consistent about it. They have been calling later on other days, and also are still calling in WV-03, which is also in the Eastern Standard Time Zone.

[YE]

So I come back on here and it seems the new consensus is WV-03 is Safe R.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

So I come back on here and it seems the new consensus is WV-03 is Safe R.

Not quite, but Strong Lean R.

[Skill and Chance]

So I come back on here and it seems the new consensus is WV-03 is Safe R.

Not quite, but Strong Lean R.

Like I said earlier, the competitive Trump +YUGE districts are coming home in the closing stretch.  Not enough to match Trump's numbers, but by enough for the GOP to win them.

[junior chįmp]

Why are people freaking out over another junk polling model designed by Cohn? This whole thing is designed to shill for clicks and website traffic

[McGovernForPrez]

So I come back on here and it seems the new consensus is WV-03 is Safe R.

Not quite, but Strong Lean R.

Calm down dude. This is one poll that isn't even finished yet. Ojeda is still within the margin of error for the poll anyways. There's still another poll out there that contradicts this one. You have a really bad habit of overreacting to small pieces of data and then proclaiming that the Democrats are doomed. Because of one bad poll for Ojeda you've claimed we should triage Manchin? Are you kidding me?

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Manchin is polling poorly, because Miller has shown a strong connection to the opoids .And another problem , Trump has approval near 70. This will create coal blankets that sufficate voters

[morgieb]

Realistically Ojeda was always kind of a reach. But it's still possible it could tighten in due course.

I'm more worried about MN-08 being so close, given Obama's margins there and the fact that the Dems still hold it. Though IL-12 and KY-06 are also basically tied, so most likely that proves nothing.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

This is one incomplete poll.  Settle down everyone.

[IceSpear]

So I come back on here and it seems the new consensus is WV-03 is Safe R.

Not quite, but Strong Lean R.

Calm down dude. This is one poll that isn't even finished yet. Ojeda is still within the margin of error for the poll anyways. There's still another poll out there that contradicts this one. You have a really bad habit of overreacting to small pieces of data and then proclaiming that the Democrats are doomed. Because of one bad poll for Ojeda you've claimed we should triage Manchin? Are you kidding me?

I mean, keep in mind the other poll is from June. In the vast majority of circumstances, a poll 2 months before the election is going to be far more important than one 5 months before election.

[IceSpear]

Manchin is polling poorly, because Miller has shown a strong connection to the opoids .And another problem , Trump has approval near 70. This will create coal blankets that sufficate voters

LOL, I was confused for a second, then I got it.

[scutosaurus]

Manchin is polling poorly, because Miller has shown a strong connection to the opoids .And another problem , Trump has approval near 70. This will create coal blankets that sufficate voters

They blew up the coal mine and put me in prison

Now they're running ads that say the coal mine blew up and I went to prison

There's no surprise there

[IceSpear]

Even putting aside the head to head double digit margin, there's very little to like in this poll for Paulsen.

Trump approval: -30 (!)
Generic ballot: D+19 (!)
Among those certain to vote: Phillips +16
Name recognition: 84% for Paulsen, 49% for Phillips
Favorability: Even for Paulsen, +16 for Phillips

He might be joining the Comstock/Rothfus/Blum/Lewis DOA club.

[Doimper]

It's time to cut WV loose, and wish our candidates luck. Love ya Manchin, but for the good of the party and country, let's redirect all the party efforts and resources planned for Manchin to help put McCaskill and maybe another one or two over the top.

LMAO.

Thinking we need to triage a Democratic Senate incumbent who's been comfortably leading in every poll taken because a Republican is leading an incomplete, unrelated house poll of 300 people by low single digits (and underperforming typical Republican performance in said district by 40 points) is Peak Bagel.

Never change.

For those who haven't figured out how this works yet, let me explain:

- Bagel craves attention and validation
- Bagel observes concern trolls receiving both of those things
- Bagel concern trolls

If you don't acknowledge him, he won't do it.

[Xing]

While WV-03 might be a bridge too far (this is actually not an attack on people from West Virginia, unless you think saying that it's Republican-leaning is an insult, lol), it definitely looks like Democrats are set for a comeback in the Midwest.

[morgieb]

While WV-03 might be a bridge too far (this is actually not an attack on people from West Virginia, unless you think saying that it's Republican-leaning is an insult, lol), it definitely looks like Democrats are set for a comeback in the Midwest.

This was the case well before these polls came out tbf. Just look at special election results in the area.