2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: California

[Idaho Conservative]

Is it fine to split up larger cities lie Long Beach or Riverside to get better VRA performance?

LB might have to be split.

[Idaho Conservative]

Finished my map: https://davesredistricting.org/join/5180a8ee-d24e-48b4-8e6f-83d0f5a041d9


Recommendations welcome, I know that the 10th is ugly, mostly because it was my leftover seat, also the Inland Empire mess is to try to draw more minority access seats.

worst map yet.  Tuolunme to Contra Costa?  Norco to Chula Vista? Look into what a COI is

[Idaho Conservative]

AA over-representation is much better for Republicans than Hispanic over-representation.  Inglewood, Compton, Richmond, and Oakland are not close to any red leaning areas.  Drawing a map favorable to blacks won't hurt republicans.   But drawing a latino friendly map could.  Of course, the map will be VRA compliant, but idk about a bunch of additional hispanic opportunity seats like some here hoped for. Good to see a central valley republican on there too. 

[Idaho Conservative]

AA over-representation is much better for Republicans than Hispanic over-representation.  Inglewood, Compton, Richmond, and Oakland are not close to any red leaning areas.  Drawing a map favorable to blacks won't hurt republicans.   But drawing a latino friendly map could.  Of course, the map will be VRA compliant, but idk about a bunch of additional hispanic opportunity seats like some here hoped for. Good to see a central valley republican on there too. 

Ridiculous take. Favoring AAs means that Latino representation will have to be made up for elsewhere.

Ridiculous take. The gingles test doesn't work like that.

[Idaho Conservative]

AA over-representation is much better for Republicans than Hispanic over-representation.  Inglewood, Compton, Richmond, and Oakland are not close to any red leaning areas.  Drawing a map favorable to blacks won't hurt republicans.   But drawing a latino friendly map could.  Of course, the map will be VRA compliant, but idk about a bunch of additional hispanic opportunity seats like some here hoped for. Good to see a central valley republican on there too. 

Ridiculous take. Favoring AAs means that Latino representation will have to be made up for elsewhere.

Ridiculous take. The gingles test doesn't work like that.

Gingles test is barely applicable in California as it is.

Thats the legal standard tho

[Idaho Conservative]

but doesn't the current CA-49 only connect OC to SD via Pendleton?

[Idaho Conservative]

but doesn't the current CA-49 only connect OC to SD via Pendleton?

Yeah, I5 along the coast works for connectivity between the two communities. Its the main artery from LA southwards. The road connections to the interior via the Pendleton precincts are very much inferior, but they are there.

I need help on what to do there. De Luz Heights is next to Fallbrook, but separating it from Oceanside would create an odd district shape. What should be done here?

The Pendleton road doesn't work?  I mean it's not that important.  Not so bad if a candidate has to drive 5 minutes out of the district.

[Idaho Conservative]

Wow California could actually end up losing two house seats: https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/07/08/study-in-a-first-california-poised-to-lose-house-seats/

[Idaho Conservative]

Do the Coachella Valley next.

Is this fine so far? How should I do the Coachella Valley? I would like to pair it with Imperial and maybe parts of San Diego in a Hispanic access district.

Blatant partisan gerrymander.  The valley is 50-50, but you pack R's in 1 seat and crack everywhere else.  Plus, it's ugly.

[Idaho Conservative]

Do the Coachella Valley next.

Is this fine so far? How should I do the Coachella Valley? I would like to pair it with Imperial and maybe parts of San Diego in a Hispanic access district.

Blatant partisan gerrymander.  The valley is 50-50, but you pack R's in 1 seat and crack everywhere else.  Plus, it's ugly.

Cracking is needed for majority-minority districts. Fresno and many parts of Bakersfield vote Democratic. Other large Central Valley cities like Stockton vote Democratic. The large cities have most of the population. The Central Valley isn't 50-50. Its large cities vote Democratic overall. Mountains don't belong with farms.

You can get minority districts without gerrymandering.  Draw 1 Kern+Tulare district, 1 Mountains+Clovis district, then the 2 others are hispanic seats.  Just stop pretending and admi you are a pure partisan.  You say no mountains with farms and then put Kern county with Yosemite.  What a COI!

[Idaho Conservative]

But it can be done better, like this

Pretty similar to the current map.  3 "minority" seats (Bakersfield one is swingy tho, but majority hispanic CVAP), 1 tossup in Modesto, and 2 white seats.

[Idaho Conservative]

Inyo and Mono are currently connected.......  Also idk why you brought up LA, it's not even displayed lol.

[Idaho Conservative]

Inyo and Mono are currently connected.......  Also idk why you brought up LA, it's not even displayed lol.

But are Inyo and Mono connected to the Central Valley with any year-round highway? There's no US 395 connection to Placer or Ridgecrest. I think that's illegal.

the law doesn't say year around

[Idaho Conservative]

https://twitter.com/udrawthelines/status/1291822482941329408

Final 6 are chosen.

Huge win for the good guys!

Woo are the "good guys"

[Idaho Conservative]

https://twitter.com/udrawthelines/status/1291822482941329408

Final 6 are chosen.

Huge win for the good guys!

Woo are the "good guys"

Democrats, obviously.

ok so you admit yoou don't even want Cali to have nonpartisan maps

[Idaho Conservative]

https://twitter.com/udrawthelines/status/1291822482941329408

Final 6 are chosen.

Huge win for the good guys!

Woo are the "good guys"

They might make a map I like.

thanks for admitting your maps are partisan gerrymanders.  finally

[Idaho Conservative]

https://twitter.com/udrawthelines/status/1291822482941329408

Final 6 are chosen.

Huge win for the good guys!

Woo are the "good guys"

Democrats, obviously.

ok so you admit yoou don't even want Cali to have nonpartisan maps

I don't want any state to have non-partisan maps. I think Republicans need eradicated. That has nothing to do with the maps I've drawn, however. My map will probably be more favorable to the GOP than the final map for CA.

end democracy?

[Idaho Conservative]

https://twitter.com/udrawthelines/status/1291822482941329408

Final 6 are chosen.

Huge win for the good guys!

Woo are the "good guys"

Democrats, obviously.

ok so you admit yoou don't even want Cali to have nonpartisan maps

I don't want any state to have non-partisan maps. I think Republicans need eradicated. That has nothing to do with the maps I've drawn, however. My map will probably be more favorable to the GOP than the final map for CA.

Pls tell me how the final map can be more unfavorable than your map?
I think u had 4 districts. Cant cut mccarthy or your calvert hunter double bunks. I guess you could cut ca 1 due to pop loss arguably but even then ca 4s is the fastest growing district and those 2 seats dont have any vra seat excuses.

My map has a decent number of swing seats. A good gerrymander will be 47-5 or 48-4, and solidly so.

even the 538 dem gerrymander has 6 gop seats.  Also, answer my question.  You said the GOP must be eradicated.  Do you want to end democracy?  Yes or no

[Idaho Conservative]

not possible to make OC all safe D.  You can make all Clinton seats, but a Romney seat could go red post Trump in a midterm, and Romney won OC.  Also, the Latino seat packs Dems.  Without a baconmander, there needs to be 2-3 red or competitive seats in OC.  The swing seats can lean D, but all safe is is out of the question

[Idaho Conservative]

not possible to make OC all safe D.  You can make all Clinton seats, but a Romney seat could go red post Trump in a midterm, and Romney won OC.  Also, the Latino seat packs Dems.  Without a baconmander, there needs to be 2-3 red or competitive seats in OC.  The swing seats can lean D, but all safe is is out of the question

CA-39 (Hacienda Heights-Whittier-Norwalk-Fullerton). CA-45 (Irvine-Orange-Fullerton-whiter Santa Ana Neighborhoods) CA-47 (Long Beach-Buena Park), CA-48 (Costa Mesa-Garden Grove-Irvine-Huntington Beach). CA-46 (Santa Ana VRA). CA-49 (Dana Point-La Jolla).

Irvine to Whittier is a baconmander, and the Huntington one might not be safe

[Idaho Conservative]

You can definitely make an R district in Orange County by taking in mostly coastal OC towns and it makes sense to do this. Avoiding city splits I took in Los Alamitos, Seal Beach, Huntington Beach, Fountain Valley, Costa Mesa, Newport Beach, Laguna Beach, Laguna Niguel, Dana Point, San Juan Capistrano, San Clemente and Aliso Viejo. It also packs in whites and is 55R-45D. Then you can have a Riverside district and a San Diego district. So you can definitely get 3 fair R districts in Socal.

I posted a previous one way earlier in this thread, but I'm working on a new one.

There is no post-2018 scenario where that coastal district votes republican. Cut your losses and try and make sure your North San Diego and South Riverside districts don't flip as well.

Um Rouda could easily lose the district he has right now so that's not true. The one I made is even stronger R than that one and voted for Trump. The San Diego and Riverside ones are even more solid.

Where is your map?

And no, Rouda is not losing to a Republican in the near future. He is a perfect fit and the GOP is freefalling.

There is no post-2018 scenario where that coastal district votes republican. Cut your losses and try and make sure your North San Diego and South Riverside districts don't flip as well.

These posts aged well lol. With that said it will be interesting to see the swing from 2016-2020 in Orange County. A compact district like I've seen some of you draw that takes in Huntington Beach, Seal Beach, Garden Grove, Westminster, Buena Park and maybe even Cerritos probably swung from Clinton to Trump and might actually be better for Steel.

interesting to see Orange didn't go the way of Gwinnett after all.

[Idaho Conservative]

I think the key to drawing a fair map that cuts GOP representation in the area is:
1. Pair Newport with Irvine. To be honest, Newport, Irvine, Laguna, Costa Mesa, and Aliso Viejo have stronger ties than Newport does with Huntington or Irvine does with the Eastern Hills.
2. Send the remainder of South OC into Levin's district.
3. Put the Eastern Hills (Tustin, Anaheim Hills, etc.) in with the Anaheim/Santa Ana Latino VRA district.
4. Get creative pairing the rest of northern and western OC with Los Angeles County.

I just don't see the commission getting away with any maps that pair OC and Riverside. Similarly, connecting Newport to Long Beach rather than Irvine is a bit too obscene. An Asian Belt sink could be drawn but I'm quite skeptical Riverside needs a second sink. Corona and Lake Elsinore are increasingly blue and so long as Temecula/Murrieta are in with the San Diego sink, everything should be fine.

Do you know what fair means?

[Idaho Conservative]

I think the key to drawing a fair map that cuts GOP representation in the area is:
1. Pair Newport with Irvine. To be honest, Newport, Irvine, Laguna, Costa Mesa, and Aliso Viejo have stronger ties than Newport does with Huntington or Irvine does with the Eastern Hills.
2. Send the remainder of South OC into Levin's district.
3. Put the Eastern Hills (Tustin, Anaheim Hills, etc.) in with the Anaheim/Santa Ana Latino VRA district.
4. Get creative pairing the rest of northern and western OC with Los Angeles County.

I just don't see the commission getting away with any maps that pair OC and Riverside. Similarly, connecting Newport to Long Beach rather than Irvine is a bit too obscene. An Asian Belt sink could be drawn but I'm quite skeptical Riverside needs a second sink. Corona and Lake Elsinore are increrasingly blue and so long as Temecula/Murrieta are in with the San Diego sink, everything should be fine.

Do you know what fair means?

A map can be fair on a COI level while simultaneously being less favorable to the GOP, yes. For example, a fair map would pair Newport Beach and Irvine which would just happen to help Democrats.

fair in this context means not taking partisanship into account.  You clearly have.  Sure, it's possible some arrangements on a fair map would hurt Republicans, and some would hurt Dems too.  If every decision just happens to benefit one party then you can't claim it's a fair map.  Sure, we can discuss what would be legal under the rules.

[Idaho Conservative]

I think the key to drawing a fair map that cuts GOP representation in the area is:
1. Pair Newport with Irvine. To be honest, Newport, Irvine, Laguna, Costa Mesa, and Aliso Viejo have stronger ties than Newport does with Huntington or Irvine does with the Eastern Hills.
2. Send the remainder of South OC into Levin's district.
3. Put the Eastern Hills (Tustin, Anaheim Hills, etc.) in with the Anaheim/Santa Ana Latino VRA district.
4. Get creative pairing the rest of northern and western OC with Los Angeles County.

I just don't see the commission getting away with any maps that pair OC and Riverside. Similarly, connecting Newport to Long Beach rather than Irvine is a bit too obscene. An Asian Belt sink could be drawn but I'm quite skeptical Riverside needs a second sink. Corona and Lake Elsinore are increrasingly blue and so long as Temecula/Murrieta are in with the San Diego sink, everything should be fine.

Do you know what fair means?

A map can be fair on a COI level while simultaneously being less favorable to the GOP, yes. For example, a fair map would pair Newport Beach and Irvine which would just happen to help Democrats.

fair in this context means not taking partisanship into account.  You clearly have.  Sure, it's possible some arrangements on a fair map would hurt Republicans, and some would hurt Dems too.  If every decision just happens to benefit one party then you can't claim it's a fair map.  Sure, we can discuss what would be legal under the rules.

I'm not advocating for it per se. I'm just discussing what the commission--which very obviously has a D tilt--is likely to do.

Well I appreciate you helping to demonstrate such actions would be clearly done with partisan motivation and would go against the entire purpose of the commission.