Arizona megathread

[Calthrina950]

Not sure I understand. Nobody - any Dem - is advocating for late term abortions. Democrats advocate for the right to choose what is best for yourself in your situation. I'm confused as to how you're not more upset with the GOP's extreme approach of banning it outright and taking the right away from people to make their own decisions.

you are talking to a brick wall

Lol Calthrina is probably the single most open member in terms of having good faith debates about something without bringing in any excesses

There are people on this forum who continue to hate me and who wish for me to die. I have no interest in conversing with those who hold such views.

[Calthrina950]

Not sure I understand. Nobody - any Dem - is advocating for late term abortions. Democrats advocate for the right to choose what is best for yourself in your situation. I'm confused as to how you're not more upset with the GOP's extreme approach of banning it outright and taking the right away from people to make their own decisions.

you are talking to a brick wall

I also say that it is very revealing that you would be making such a comment. Did you bother to try and refute what I said about Kari Lake and the Hispanic townhall? No! Have you ever bothered to read any of the many comments I've made criticizing Trump and Republican candidates, as well as Republican politicians? No! Instead, you jump to and seize upon preconceptions of what I believe and what I say. But that's not surprising for the likes of you and for others on this forum who engage in similar behaviors. Your kind is not worth conversing with anymore, because you don't think I contribute anything of value, and you refuse to turn aside from your uncompromising and cruel ways.

[Calthrina950]

Even as a Dem I agree. I feel like the politicization of this issue has made it very all or nothing when I think there is a reasonable moral and scientific debate to be had. If it were up to me, I would allow all abortions up to the first trimester, and then only medically necessary abortions after that including if the fetus is not viable. Medically necessary abortions should be covered whereas elective abortions should not.

The debate is over though ini scientific and philosophical communities, if you read into it. Almost all late term abortions are medically necessary. People don't generally get "elective" late term abortions, because vacating a baby corpse from your body is painful and dangerous. Any notion otherwise is just yet another conservative delusion masquerading as an opinion worth respecting. But just like I dgaf about climate deniers or election truthers, I see no need to engage (in false faith) with the GOP on an issue they either don't understand or lie about.

It's cruel. It's disingenuous. I'lll have a reasonable, moderate debate on the issue with pro-lifers when they decide to be "pro life" about any other topic. But while they remain committed to ransacking the biosphere, letting cops kill at will, and letting babies die in cages on the border, it's futile. The idea that it's "just an opinion" to force a woman to carry a dead fetus to term is the same kind of logic that says "it's just an opinion" to let oil companies lie about carbon for decades, dooming us all. It's not "just an opinion," it's a lie or a delusion and those have no place in democratic discourse

Of course, I'm someone who has long been in favor of renewable energy and who has been concerned about climate change for some years now. I've long supported granting amnesty to the children of illegal immigrants who were brought here through no fault of their own, and I certainly didn't support the Trump policy of locking kids in cages. I've also long been in support of criminal justice reform, which is an issue that is especially relevant to me as a black man. I think these positions can be adequately paired with taking a more moderate stance on the abortion issue.

To be clear, I am supportive of abortion during the first trimester, and certainly before fifteen weeks. I'm also aware that the vast majority of late-term pregnancies are terminated due to medical complications. But I'm not comfortable with taxpayer funding of abortion, and I'm not comfortable with a permissive framework that doesn't establish any kinds of limits on the practice, provide conscience protections, or include specific exemptions.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1580257293093912577?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctw...

I saw one of these videos the other day, and now this one. Mind you, the reputation of Project Veritas, especially on this forum. But aside from that, Hobbs doesn't come across well in this at all. I'll admit that I laughed when she accidentally knocked her drink across the table.

[Calthrina950]

Here's a NBC News article about the Arizona gubernatorial election. Many of Hobbs' supporters are concerned that Lake is "outshining" Hobbs, and believe that Hobbs' refusal to debate Lake was an unforced error on her part. They are concerned that Hobbs has not been campaigning vigorously enough, whereas Lake has been traveling all over the state and has a packed campaign schedule. Moreover, there is a danger that Lake and her surrogates could outspend Hobbs, with regards to advertisements, in the closing weeks of the campaign.

Hobbs, of course, is hoping that the abortion issue (and Lake's hardline stances on it), will benefit her, and she is counting on the "McCain Republicans", who will be crucial to any victory of hers. She has also argued that Lake is making no effort to appeal to swing voters. But on balance, there are concerns from within Hobbs' own campaign about the trajectory of this race, and these are concerns that should not be ignored.

[Calthrina950]

Here's a NBC News article about the Arizona gubernatorial election. Many of Hobbs' supporters are concerned that Lake is "outshining" Hobbs, and believe that Hobbs' refusal to debate Lake was an unforced error on her part. They are concerned that Hobbs has not been campaigning vigorously enough, whereas Lake has been traveling all over the state and has a packed campaign schedule. Moreover, there is a danger that Lake and her surrogates could outspend Hobbs, with regards to advertisements, in the closing weeks of the campaign.

Hobbs, of course, is hoping that the abortion issue (and Lake's hardline stances on it), will benefit her, and she is counting on the "McCain Republicans", who will be crucial to any victory of hers. She has also argued that Lake is making no effort to appeal to swing voters. But on balance, there are concerns from within Hobbs' own campaign about the trajectory of this race, and these are concerns that should not be ignored.

It's not a Democratic campaign if the Democrats in each state/race are not bed-wetting over everything

Again, it would not be wise to ignore these concerns. The Democrats (and at least one "McCain Republican" supporting Hobbs) quoted in this article obviously support her, and want her to win. They believes Hobbs needs to be more vigorous in pressing her case to the voters. It is not a wise strategy to allow for Lake to monopolize the media. One also has to keep in mind that Hobbs didn't debate her primary opponent either, so that gives reason to doubt her motivations for not debating Lake.

[Calthrina950]

Here's a NBC News article about the Arizona gubernatorial election. Many of Hobbs' supporters are concerned that Lake is "outshining" Hobbs, and believe that Hobbs' refusal to debate Lake was an unforced error on her part. They are concerned that Hobbs has not been campaigning vigorously enough, whereas Lake has been traveling all over the state and has a packed campaign schedule. Moreover, there is a danger that Lake and her surrogates could outspend Hobbs, with regards to advertisements, in the closing weeks of the campaign.

Hobbs, of course, is hoping that the abortion issue (and Lake's hardline stances on it), will benefit her, and she is counting on the "McCain Republicans", who will be crucial to any victory of hers. She has also argued that Lake is making no effort to appeal to swing voters. But on balance, there are concerns from within Hobbs' own campaign about the trajectory of this race, and these are concerns that should not be ignored.

It's not a Democratic campaign if the Democrats in each state/race are not bed-wetting over everything

Again, it would not be wise to ignore these concerns. The Democrats (and at least one "McCain Republican" supporting Hobbs) quoted in this article obviously support her, and want her to win. They believes Hobbs needs to be more vigorous in pressing her case to the voters. It is not a wise strategy to allow for Lake to monopolize the media. One also has to keep in mind that Hobbs didn't debate her primary opponent either, so that gives reason to doubt her motivations for not debating Lake.

I don't necessarily buy the Lake monopolizing the media - because every one of her TV hits or press conferences - like the one she did yesterday - come off unhinged. I would say that the article is right that she's clearly not going after any swing voters at all. Hobbs also appears to be going across the state and doing her own campaigning.

I think this all comes down to demeanor. People assume because Lake is a more brash personality that she's everywhere, while Hobbs, because she's quieter and unassuming, gets the narrative that she's not doing anything because she's not raising as much hell as Lake is. Lake may get more headlines, but I wouldn't assume that that is doing her a lot of favors, either. You could argue just like Trump - he was in the news all the time, but when he's in the news, it's not a great day for him or Team R.

Not to mention, the whole debate thing remains a very beltway-type issue imo. Look at recent debates, with Johnson, Masters, Vance, etc. Ryan, Barnes, and Kelly are all good debaters - and their opponents to varying degrees. But most people still ended up calling all of them a draw or people just stuck to their sides. If Ryan didn't "win" that debate against Vance, then Hobbs won't "win" it against Lake. I'm all for debates and believe you should do at least one, but at the end of the day, it's not like it's going to do much.

Of course, one can plausibly say that a debate won't have a significant impact on the election results. Given what happened in 2016 and 2020, I can easily see the validity of this argument. But I think the larger issue is that Hobbs' unwillingness to debate Lake at all is the more significant problem here. Just look at that Prensa Arizona townhall that she was a no-show to. And look at that Univision forum where Lake was kicked out for sitting in the audience when Hobbs was on the stage.

By refusing to directly confront Lake head on and defend her own beliefs, Hobbs is giving Lake more credibility than she otherwise would have. And it has given Lake a good attack strategy to utilize against Hobbs. She can claim that she's putting in the work and reaching out to voters, and that Hobbs is hiding from them. What would be said if the situation was reversed, and Lake was the one refusing to debate Hobbs? There would surely be condemnation, and it would be justified.

[Calthrina950]

Every day I'm getting more depressed about this race.  If Hobbs loses, which it's looking more and more likely she will, she needs to be drummed out of AZ politics (and preferably the state) for good.  She's blowing this race right and left, and it's sad that nobody better stepped up and ran.

And yet I still dare to hope Hobbs might win.  If "Roevember" (eye roll) becomes a thing, or if just enough people wake up and see how batsh**t nuts Qari Lake is, there's still hope.  But I'm afraid we're getting to the point where desperate hope is ALL there is.

Regardless, I don't think there's any chance of a blowout win by Lake.  As we've mentioned, she's making virtually no effort to reach out to the middle or moderate.  But all she needs is a plurality to get in there and wreak God knows what kind of havoc here.

But how? Leftists online want to just keep running with this narrative and yet where's the proof? She's out campaigning, she's on TV (I've seen multiple hits just this week), the DGA/Hobbs campaign together are out maneuvering Lake/RGA on the air, it was 2:1 most recently in terms of spend.

Meanwhile, Lake is out here embarrassing herself most days with ridiculous stunts and press conferences, of which who is the target here other than hardcore Republicans?

I'm not in Arizona, but it feels like the narrative that some want to say about this race is much different than what is actually happening in reality. Not sure what else Hobbs should be doing that she's not doing now? She's not a bombastic personality and never has been, and I don't think anybody wants her to be.

You could make the exact same argument that Lake is "blowing" this race by not moderating whatsoever and relying on pure stunts for attention. Getting attention does not mean you are getting ahead in a race.

You're gonna OD if you take any more copium. Hobbs has been running from debates and any confrontation. It portrays her as weak and flaky whereas Lake is projecting strength by calling her out and challenging her. Arizona went for Biden but it isn't exactly a liberal state. Despite what you or I may think of her positions, AZ voters probably aren't THAT turned off by them, at least not as much as they were by Trump's flat unstable personality. Hobbs is doing everything she can to blow this race and it looks like she's going to. Watching the TV appearances where she's pressed on the debate issue is downright painful.

lol okay yea, i'm sure they're totally fine with abortion bans and 2020 election denial. nice try!

If 2020 is any evidence, almost half of them are. Trump only lost Arizona by 10,000 votes, and in an environment like this, it's not hard for me to see Lake making up that deficit.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1581483966397235200?cxt=HHwWgICqsbrSx_IrAAAA
Kari Lake and Blake Masters along with the rest of the statewide Republicans like Hamadeh and Finchem are running as a much closer ticket together than the Democrats. Kelly has pretty much distanced himself from Hobbs and his doing his own thing. Fontes also seems to be running a solo campaign. Hobbs does some campaigning with AG candidate Kris Mayes, but the Dem side just feels a lot less connected with each other.

Do you think the "barriers" between the Democratic candidates may prove harmful to the ticket?

[Calthrina950]

And yet Lake openly campaigning with someone like Finchem is not being treated as an issue or harmful to her campaign - and yet Hobbs is the one making all the mistakes? It's like some of you want Lake to win at this point.

Hardly anyone on here does want for Lake to win, and it's been pointed out, time and time again, that Democrats in Arizona are not confident about Hobbs' campaign and believe that she has made a series of unforced errors that have given Lake an advantage. Your belief is that Hobbs is running a strong and persuasive campaign, but if this is the case, why hasn't she put this race away?

[Calthrina950]

And yet Lake openly campaigning with someone like Finchem is not being treated as an issue or harmful to her campaign - and yet Hobbs is the one making all the mistakes? It's like some of you want Lake to win at this point.

Hardly anyone on here does want for Lake to win, and it's been pointed out, time and time again, that Democrats in Arizona are not confident about Hobbs' campaign and believe that she has made a series of unforced errors that have given Lake an advantage. Your belief is that Hobbs is running a strong and persuasive campaign, but if this is the case, why hasn't she put this race away?

Because this is Arizona, a purple state that still went for Trump by 5 in 2016 and just barely by Biden in 2020? Nobody is "Putting anyone away" in a state like this, that idea is just kind of preposterous.

And you're putting words in my mouth. I'm willing to have a nuanced take of this race. Hobbs is not running a "strong" campaign, but she's also not running the worst campaign of all time like some people here like to act with their overdramatics. But it seems like no one is willing to meet in the middle here.

I don't think she's running the "worst campaign of all time", but she's made mistakes, which people have called her out for, and which she is not remedying. But your belief is that Hobbs is running a better campaign than Lake and that Lake is unelectable. It would not be a competitive race if that were the case.

[Calthrina950]

Is wbrocks a member of the Kari Lake campaign team? wbrocks keeps posting clips that make me like Kari Lake more, lol

He certainly does seem to like Katie Hobbs.

[Calthrina950]

Lake is now.. begging Hobbs to debate her on The View.

I can't take this campaign seriously.

https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1581508375069663234?t=adkMmXPnqdkT0PQV05wKXw...

Dude how does this reflect poorly on Lake? She's clearly making a joke, so of course you can't take it seriously. Sometimes I don't get you wbrocks.

Lake hasn't been "begging" for a debate. She's been using Hobbs' refusal to debate as an attack against her, and if the polls are any indication, it has been an effective one.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1582403573811318784

Holy cow. She puts the press into a trance. This woman is something else. Not only will she probably win (and put Arizona's 11 electoral votes back to the GOP in '24) but she probably has a bright national future herself.

Democrats boosted Lake in the primary - as they did many other MAGA candidates - because they were confident that they could beat her in the general. It's backfiring on them now. She certainly was underestimated.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1582403573811318784

Holy cow. She puts the press into a trance. This woman is something else. Not only will she probably win (and put Arizona's 11 electoral votes back to the GOP in '24) but she probably has a bright national future herself.

Democrats boosted Lake in the primary - as they did many other MAGA candidates - because they were confident that they could beat her in the general. It's backfiring on them now. She certainly was underestimated.

How is it backfiring? lol, I guess everyone will see what they want to see, but Lake is literally handing out flyers and bringing election denial back into the forefront by making flimsy "both sides" arguments.

How is this supposed to help her with Independents?

Also think it's pretty funny how Democrats get the shaft typically in "why are they not talking about the right issues?" Why is Lake bringing out flyers talking about Hillary Clinton 3 weeks out from the election? Is that voters care about? It's clearly more a diversion than anything.

I'm not defending what Lake was doing. What I'm saying is that Democrats boosted Lake because they believed she would be the more beatable candidate in the general election, but this strategy has backfired on them. Lake has been running a strong campaign, while many Democrats are frustrated with Hobbs and believe that her campaign has made a series of unforced errors.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1582403573811318784
Holy cow. She puts the press into a trance. This woman is something else. Not only will she probably win (and put Arizona's 11 electoral votes back to the GOP in '24) but she probably has a bright national future herself.

Democrats boosted Lake in the primary - as they did many other MAGA candidates - because they were confident that they could beat her in the general. It's backfiring on them now. She certainly was underestimated.

How is it backfiring? lol, I guess everyone will see what they want to see, but Lake is literally handing out flyers and bringing election denial back into the forefront by making flimsy "both sides" arguments.

How is this supposed to help her with Independents?

Also think it's pretty funny how Democrats get the shaft typically in "why are they not talking about the right issues?" Why is Lake bringing out flyers talking about Hillary Clinton 3 weeks out from the election? Is that voters care about? It's clearly more a diversion than anything.

I'm not defending what Lake was doing. What I'm saying is that Democrats boosted Lake because they believed she would be the more beatable candidate in the general election, but this strategy has backfired on them. Lake has been running a strong campaign, while many Democrats are frustrated with Hobbs and believe that her campaign has made a series of unforced errors.

I don't think Robson would be doing any worse than Lake is.

I don't think so either, and that is exactly my point.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1582403573811318784
Holy cow. She puts the press into a trance. This woman is something else. Not only will she probably win (and put Arizona's 11 electoral votes back to the GOP in '24) but she probably has a bright national future herself.

Democrats boosted Lake in the primary - as they did many other MAGA candidates - because they were confident that they could beat her in the general. It's backfiring on them now. She certainly was underestimated.

Some Dem operatives apparently learned zero lessons from 2016's pied piper strategy.

They didn't, and now it's almost certain that Lake and some of these other election denialists are going to win next month.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1582403573811318784
Holy cow. She puts the press into a trance. This woman is something else. Not only will she probably win (and put Arizona's 11 electoral votes back to the GOP in '24) but she probably has a bright national future herself.

Democrats boosted Lake in the primary - as they did many other MAGA candidates - because they were confident that they could beat her in the general. It's backfiring on them now. She certainly was underestimated.

Some Dem operatives apparently learned zero lessons from 2016's pied piper strategy.

They didn't, and now it's almost certain that Lake and some of these other election denialists are going to win next month.

I don't know how to tell you this, but Republican primary voters have agency. Democrats didn't trick them into voting for Lake. This is a right-wing talking point, but I'm not surprised that you're falling for it.

Of course they have agency, but as has been said many times before, many Democrats were uncomfortable with these particular tactics and do not believe they should have been employed. I'm far from the only person who has made this point. And why are you "surprised"? I'm getting tired of this "#bothsideism" nonsense that you and other posters continue to bash me and those like me with.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/Yolo304741/status/1584307245747441665

ABC hammering Hobbs on Good Morning America. Had her stammering and stuttering. Crazy stuff.

Hobbs is severely lacking in self-confidence. She acts like she's afraid someone is going to come and get her, and take her away to some other place. Lake, on the other hand, exudes self-confidence. She's crazy, but she's confrontational. Hobbs is doing her voters a disservice by not pushing back against Lake's claims and exposing why she's wrong. A debate would have been the perfect opportunity for her to do that. But I can tell that TJ Holmes (the reporter questioning her who used the "stand up to bullies" analogy) isn't buying what's she selling, and many voters aren't either. That's why she is going to lose.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/Yolo304741/status/1584307245747441665

ABC hammering Hobbs on Good Morning America. Had her stammering and stuttering. Crazy stuff.

Hobbs is severely lacking in self-confidence. She acts like she's afraid someone is going to come and get her, and take her away to some other place. Lake, on the other hand, exudes self-confidence. She's crazy, but she's confrontational. Hobbs is doing her voters a disservice by not pushing back against Lake's claims and exposing why she's wrong. A debate would have been the perfect opportunity for her to do that. But I can tell that TJ Holmes (the reporter questioning her who used the "stand up to bullies" analogy) isn't buying what's she selling, and many voters aren't either. That's why she is going to lose.

You don't need a debate to expose why she's wrong; pretty clear that Hobbs does that in every single interview.

You've been a consistent defender of Hobbs throughout this campaign, and are one of the few who has been praising her decision not to debate. But then again, you always have dissenting views on every issue and matter of concern. If all human beings thought alike, there would be no variety. As for "exposing Lake" in each interview, Hobbs has incessantly repeated that Lake is an election denier and that she can't "dignify" that by debating her. It's a message that has grown stale, primarily because of her unwillingness to directly challenge Lake on her claims.

[Calthrina950]

I’m not really sure how Hobbs not debating is supposedly single-handedly killing her campaign when after every other debate everyone on Atlas agrees that debates don’t change anything. You can’t have it both ways.

Debates don't change anything unless someone makes a big gaffe. But refusing to debate does. It looks cowardly and weak even to the vast majority who don't watch debates.

I honestly don't think persuadable voters will care or even know that she refused to debate.

Your belief is that Hobbs will still win because of how extreme Lake is? That the campaign which she's run matters little?