French presidential election, 2022

[Mike88]

Curiously, basically all French Presidents since De Gaulle, at least that's my impression, have a bit of a "Sun King" aura, as they act like kings. Mitterrand was even labeled as "the prince". The only expection may be François Hollande, in my view.

Also, remember when flour was the weapon of choice of the French against their politicians?

[Mike88]

I wonder if the Russian invasion of Ukraine could be a factor in France. It could lead to more scrutiny of how LePen, Zemmour and Melenchon support Putin and presumably will cheer on the invasion. There will also be more stories about how Putin funds various far right and far left political parties in France

I mean, crisis like that usually benefit the president

Before that, I think it should be asked if Zemmour will even be a candidate, as he's having a lot of trouble collecting support from mayors. Also, the view here in my country is that Macron came out badly from all of this Russia-Ukraine escalation, and that he made a fool of himself. What's the view of his role in France?

[Mike88]

What's the difference between workers and employees?

I assume that workers means hard labour activities like factory workers or construction workers, and employees are office workers in services.

[Mike88]

More and more, people are recognizing that Emmanuel Macron is, mostly by default, the best president of the Fifth Republic.

He really isn't (and if you asked French people about it in a poll they'd clearly tell you that), but what he is is better than any of the candidates who have any shot of qualifying for the runoff.

Genuine question. Who the French would say was the best President? I doubt Hollande, Sarko or Chirac would feature there.

According to this link, De Gaulle and Chirac are tied: https://fr.statista.com/statistiques/1055822/meilleur-president-selon-francais/

30% De Gaulle
30% Chirac
17% Mitterrand
  7% Macron
  7% Sarkozy
  5% Pompidou
  3% Giscard d'Estaing
  1% Holland

Another one, without De Gaulle in it, has Miterrand with 31% and Chirac with 26%: https://www.francebleu.fr/infos/societe/sondage-mitterrand-est-le-meilleur-president-de-ces-quarante-dernieres-annees-hollande-le-plus-1538592182

Overall, I think we can say that De Gaulle, Miterrand and Chirac are the most popular.

[Mike88]

Let's not beat around the bush here. A Le Pen presidency would be an unmitigated disaster. Absolutely not what the western world needs right now.

Absolutely, it would be terrible for unity of the European Union.

After Macron surged following the war outbreak, I actually thought he had this in the bag. Somehow this gives me Virginia 2021 vibes.

What is causing the collapse?

Parochial boy resumes it quite well:

The reason that Le Pen is polling well is down to why she has been progressing for a couple of weeks at this point - in part the way the McKinsey scandal has snowballed; in part the (lack of a) Macron campaign; but probably mostly down to the fuel price crisis and the sudden surge of cost of living as an issue in people's minds. Le Pen has actually been making this a big theme of her's for a while, which makes the timing somewhat fortuitous. And - well - that much is apparent in the same poll, which actually has her rated as the most credible on the issue (47% judge her as credible on it, compared to 42% for Macron and 36% for Mélenchon).

[Mike88]

I am shocked and appalled that CGT members who work for the railroad are refusing to vote for a candidate who has pledged to take income out of their pockets so corporations and elites can have more money! I do not understand this.

Here we go, the workerist dungarees-wearing act again...do economists have their own union too?

In the end independent trade unions won't exist in an authoritarian society, be it Le Pen or Mélenchon. That's the difference we're talking about here. And Hungary is demonstrating that authoritarian rule is incredibly hard to reverse.

I am not arguing it is good that CGT members would refuse to vote for Macron over Le Pen. I am arguing that they will do so and that it should surprise no one that they would do this. Macron made the choice to make the election a referendum on his plan to increase the retirement age - he is responsible for this.

Not been following this. What is the content of Macron's increase retirement age reform?

[Mike88]

At 5pm, turnout stands at 65%, a drop of 4.4% compared with 2017.

[Mike88]

Turnout projections:

Ipsos is projecting a 73.5% turnout rate.
Ifop is projecting turnout at 76%.

[Mike88]

Live coverage of LCI:

Live coverage of Franceinfo:

[Mike88]

Live coverage of LCI:

Live coverage of Franceinfo:

Live coverage from BFMTV:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_GL7UmbBZMU

[Mike88]

 28 Macron
 24 Le Pen

[Mike88]

https://twitter.com/mathieugallard/status/1513215179869376518?cxt=HHwWjMC-jYrMgo...

[Mike88]

Hidalgo at only 2%. Good lord.

Only ahead far-left duo (Poutou and Artaud). Bad day at Solferino!

Not anymore. The party sold their previous headquarters in late 2017.

[Mike88]

Pécresse also endorses Macron.

[Mike88]

Is there a page where the results will be updated?

https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/presidentielle-2022/index.html

This is supposed to have national results, but right now it's only displaying them by Department.

I think they will post a link when a significant amount of nationwide votes are counted. I think that was the case in 2017.

[Mike88]

Zemmour endorses Le Pen.

[Mike88]

Best result map I have found:

https://www.france24.com/en/live-2022-french-presidential-election-%E2%80%93-first-round-results

Lassale is doing really well in the Pyrenees border with Spain.

[Mike88]

Ifop poll for the 2nd round:

51% Macron
49% Le Pen

Conducted during 10 April after 8pm. 1,000 voters polled.

[Mike88]

Ifop poll for the 2nd round:

51% Macron
49% Le Pen

Conducted during 10 April after 8pm. 1,000 voters polled.

Looks like a lot of Melenchón voters are rejected his call for no vote for Le Pen.

Take the polls with a huge grain of salt. In the first round, many voters concentrated their votes in Macron to block Le Pen from coming on top. Close polls like these for the second round could motivate non 1st round voters to get out and cast a ballot for Macron.

[Mike88]

Ifop poll for the 2nd round:

51% Macron
49% Le Pen

Conducted during 10 April after 8pm. 1,000 voters polled.

Looks like a lot of Melenchón voters are rejected his call for no vote for Le Pen.

Take the polls with a huge grain of salt. In the first round, many voters concentrated their votes in Macron to block Le Pen from coming on top. Close polls like these for the second round could motivate non 1st round voters to get out and cast a ballot for Macron.

Of course. But that does not invalidate my statement about Melenchón voters if this poll is anywhere close to being accurate.

Oh yes, of course, no doubt.

[Mike88]

Link with the nationwide results from the Interior minister website:

https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/presidentielle-2022/FE.html

[Mike88]

44% counted:

28.0% Le Pen
26.3% Macron
18.3% Mélenchon
  6.6% Zemmour
  4.7% Pécresse
  4.1% Lassalle
  3.9% Jadot
  2.4% Roussel
  2.4% Dupont
  1.7% Hidalgo
  0.8% Poutou
  0.7% Arthaud

74.9% Turnout

[Mike88]

Why was Macron name-dropping the names of a lot of candidates in his first-round victory speech?

My French isn't perfect, but I understand he was thanking them for running in the election and commending their voters.

[Mike88]

Ipsos poll for the 2nd round:

54% Macron
46% Le Pen

Poll conducted on 10 April after 8pm. Polled 2,000 voters.

Mélenchon voters: 34% Macron, 30% Le Pen, 36% Abstention

[Mike88]

Why was Macron name-dropping the names of a lot of candidates in his first-round victory speech?

My French isn't perfect, but I understand he was thanking them for running in the election and commanding their voters.

*commending?

Yes, sorry. Typo error. Thanks for the correction