French presidential election, 2022

[Oryxslayer]

Dupont-Aignan unsurprisingly endorses Le Pen. 

[Antonio the Sixth]

In 2017, local favourite son Fillon won Sarthe with 29%. So far, Macron is at 26% there (up 6), Le Pen at 34% (up 13) and Pécresse at... 6% (down 23).

If Pecresse could expect a native daughter effect anywhere, it would probably be in Yvelines. She has 8.2% there, with 44 of 259 communes reporting.

If she does get a native-daughter effect, it will be in the Eastern tip of the department, near the Paris region - the area around Vélizy-Villacoublay and Versailles. This is the area she used to represent and has her political machine.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Macron is about to speak.

[Mike88]

44% counted:

28.0% Le Pen
26.3% Macron
18.3% Mélenchon
  6.6% Zemmour
  4.7% Pécresse
  4.1% Lassalle
  3.9% Jadot
  2.4% Roussel
  2.4% Dupont
  1.7% Hidalgo
  0.8% Poutou
  0.7% Arthaud

74.9% Turnout

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

In 2017, local favourite son Fillon won Sarthe with 29%. So far, Macron is at 26% there (up 6), Le Pen at 34% (up 13) and Pécresse at... 6% (down 23).

If Pecresse could expect a native daughter effect anywhere, it would probably be in Yvelines. She has 8.2% there, with 44 of 259 communes reporting.

If she does get a native-daughter effect, it will be in the Eastern tip of the department, near the Paris region - the area around Vélizy-Villacoublay and Versailles. This is the area she used to represent and has her political machine.

If you had to make an educated guess, how well do you think she does in Vélizy-Villacoublay?

[Zinneke]

Such a disappointing result for the Left. We could have done a 2002 to the far right, a taste of their own medecine. You even add Roussel to Mélenchon and it gets marginal. But one man and his oversized ego, his ability to alienate his own partners, come out first refusing a primary (effectively ending that idea, but there is also a partial blame to be left on the door of the likes of backstabber Valls for making primaries irrelevant) and his dodgy ties to Russia mean we have a 2017 replay. Massive opportunity missed. Thanks LFI.

Surprise of the round has to be Lassalle I imagine, he is polling extremely well around his region. he is getting twice as many votes as Hidalgo.

[Antonio the Sixth]

In 2017, local favourite son Fillon won Sarthe with 29%. So far, Macron is at 26% there (up 6), Le Pen at 34% (up 13) and Pécresse at... 6% (down 23).

If Pecresse could expect a native daughter effect anywhere, it would probably be in Yvelines. She has 8.2% there, with 44 of 259 communes reporting.

If she does get a native-daughter effect, it will be in the Eastern tip of the department, near the Paris region - the area around Vélizy-Villacoublay and Versailles. This is the area she used to represent and has her political machine.

If you had to make an educated guess, how well do you think she does in Vélizy-Villacoublay?

If I want to be generous, maybe 15%? Even that would be a paltry result given the circumstances.

[Benjamin Frank]

Cotes-d'Armor (located in Brittany) is tracking well with the overall national vote.

It'll get more Macron - like most of Brittney just base on what we have seem previously. Most of the places with big uncounted areas right now are populous ones favoring Macron. And the Breton provinces are well more LREM than the nation.

Leave Brittney alone!

[parochial boy]

In 2017, local favourite son Fillon won Sarthe with 29%. So far, Macron is at 26% there (up 6), Le Pen at 34% (up 13) and Pécresse at... 6% (down 23).

Sarthe is one of the most clear examples of what is, in modern French electoral geography, the spectacularly obvious phenomenon of the RN regularly doing far stronger on the edges of the department and weaker in the geographical centre.

Reason being that the departments were drawn during the revolution, deliberately to override traditional provincial boundaries, but also usually putting the largest city in the centre of the department. So with these days urban-rural divides there are a tonne of departments that you can zoom in on and see an orange LREM core surrounded by grey RN communes on the edge of the department. Jaw droppingly obvious when you think about it, but also kind of sad in the case of somewhere like the Sarthe where it basically destroyed a centuries old east-west divide that was rooted in old cultural divides and the impact of the revolution

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Why was Macron name-dropping the names of a lot of candidates in his first-round victory speech?

[Mike88]

Why was Macron name-dropping the names of a lot of candidates in his first-round victory speech?

My French isn't perfect, but I understand he was thanking them for running in the election and commending their voters.

[Mike88]

Ipsos poll for the 2nd round:

54% Macron
46% Le Pen

Poll conducted on 10 April after 8pm. Polled 2,000 voters.

Mélenchon voters: 34% Macron, 30% Le Pen, 36% Abstention

[brucejoel99]

Why was Macron name-dropping the names of a lot of candidates in his first-round victory speech?

My French isn't perfect, but I understand he was thanking them for running in the election and commanding their voters.

*commending?

[Coldstream]

Has Le Pen spoken yet?

[Mike88]

Why was Macron name-dropping the names of a lot of candidates in his first-round victory speech?

My French isn't perfect, but I understand he was thanking them for running in the election and commanding their voters.

*commending?

Yes, sorry. Typo error. Thanks for the correction

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Has Le Pen spoken yet?

Yes.

Why was Macron name-dropping the names of a lot of candidates in his first-round victory speech?

My French isn't perfect, but I understand he was thanking them for running in the election and commending their voters.

That would make sense, thank you.

[Antonio the Sixth]

With 50% of the vote counted (coming largely from the most rural half of France, as big cities always report last):

Le Pen 27.5%
Macron 26.7%
Mélenchon 18.4%
Zemmour 6.7%
Pécresse 4.7%
Jadot 4%
Lassalle 4% (this is how you know it's a very rural sample)

[Coldstream]

Macron seems considerably less triumphalist than I expected/he was in 2017. Hopefully that leads to a more collegiate second term should he win one.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Macron seems considerably less triumphalist than I expected/he was in 2017. Hopefully that leads to a more collegiate second term should he win one.

I doubt it. At least assuming he gets a majority in the legislatives, he'll continue to rule like a monarch and ignore any criticism.

[Double Carpet]

First 3 mainland departments have declared: Le Pen wins Meuse and Creuse (gain from Macron v Rd 1 2017), Melenchon holds Ariege

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Macron seems considerably less triumphalist than I expected/he was in 2017. Hopefully that leads to a more collegiate second term should he win one.

I doubt it. At least assuming he gets a majority in the legislatives, he'll continue to rule like a monarch and ignore any criticism.

Who did you vote for?

[Middle-aged Europe]

The results of the 1st round were at least of such a nature that I didn't suffer an immediate heart attack from it. Thanks French persons.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The results of the 1st round were at least of such a nature that I didn't suffer an immediate heart attack from it. Thanks French persons.

They're honestly just kind of boring but meh. Looking like Macron will win a high single digits second round victory like I expected.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Macron seems considerably less triumphalist than I expected/he was in 2017. Hopefully that leads to a more collegiate second term should he win one.

I doubt it. At least assuming he gets a majority in the legislatives, he'll continue to rule like a monarch and ignore any criticism.

Who did you vote for?

Jadot

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Macron seems considerably less triumphalist than I expected/he was in 2017. Hopefully that leads to a more collegiate second term should he win one.

I doubt it. At least assuming he gets a majority in the legislatives, he'll continue to rule like a monarch and ignore any criticism.

Who did you vote for?

Jadot

Actually a pretty good pick, I was thinking about how happy I was not having to vote in this absolutely horrendous election but I might've found him the least objectionable as well.