Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1504507707629395970?s=20&t=r-0eBJpFY8...

Read a few other reports confirming this; if true, it not only increases the chances of a possible assault to liberate Kherson but also strengthens the defenses of Mykolaiv and reduces the chance of the city being surrounded by Russian forces.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1504507707629395970?s=20&t=r-0eBJpFY8...
Read a few other reports confirming this; if true, it not only increases the chances of a possible assault to liberate Kherson but also strengthens the defenses of Mykolaiv and reduces the chance of the city being surrounded by Russian forces.

And pushes back when any kind of assault on Odesa could possibly happen (if it ever comes). The Russians need to take Mykolaiv to have any realistic chance of taking Odesa.

Indeed. Unless Russia decides to invade from the coast; as was feared just a few days ago (I suppose that was a confirmed feint, now?) although it's highly debatable whether they actually have that capacity I suppose.

Does anyone know what Ukrainian defenses in Odessa are like?

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

I'm not sure how intentional it was; but three Russian cosmonaut's arrived on the ISS wearing Ukrainian colors. Given the education of most Astronauts and the necessary cooperation with others of all nationalities their work requires though it wouldn't surprise me.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

https://twitter.com/lapatina_/status/1504832865300889603?s=20&t=5QMRXF9XwHnu...

Absolutely heart-breaking. Not really an update or anything, but I don't think it can be understated how much animosity Putin is fueling among average Ukrainians against Russia. I can't see Ukraine ever having a significant Pro-Russian or even Russia friendly government or political party again after all this is said and done, barring Putin attempting to force one on them via the barrel of a gun.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

https://twitter.com/lapatina_/status/1504832865300889603?s=20&t=5QMRXF9XwHnu...
Absolutely heart-breaking. Not really an update or anything, but I don't think it can be understated how much animosity Putin is fueling among average Ukrainians against Russia. I can't see Ukraine ever having a significant Pro-Russian or even Russia friendly government or political party again after all this is said and done, barring Putin attempting to force one on them via the barrel of a gun.

I assume any pro-Russian government officials will be in constant danger of assassination.

Oh, without a doubt. You have to wonder who they could even get to lead such a collaborationist government? There was a supposed FSB analyst a few weeks ago who essentially said that even Opposition Platform (Pro-Russia party) and other Ukrainian oligarchs are all refusing to cooperate. They’d have to either bring in administrators straight from the motherland or elevate some real nobodies to the helm… and I can’t imagine either of those options going well.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

In case you have not yet, read this article. It is the ultimate roller coaster ride. Russia has already lost with its best troops, it should pick one target (east Ukraine, Kiev or Odessa), rather than three at once, but Putin runs the show and wants all three to be in the best negotiating position, Russia will be out of gas in two weeks, so it is now or never for them, but Russia can still probably win a war of attrition, and Ukraine is being worn down too,  Putin can mobilize the whole country in his chase for the white whale, and maybe get it, opposition is just in the cities, Putin controls the fake news, and on and on. Maybe you will get less sea sick than I did, on the high seas of Putin's obsessive quest, with no one to tell him enough already. The guy has some credibility in the sense he lists what he does not know, fog of war and all of that. He's a more modest than hubristic expert.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/03/21/michael-kofman-russia-military-expert-00018906

Oh, the image  looks like a modern children's crusade (and why would the guy on the corner who is most visible and looks like 14 be part of the propaganda message - to win favor with those into child abuse?), but then I read that Putin was like a neutron bomb that had fused Russian orthodox mysticism, hedonism and sadism into a new element, and like all new elements, a highly volatile one.

My main takeaways from the article;

- Russia has used up all of its top forces and will run out of gas soon. Time isn't on the side of Russia, but it'll be worse for Ukraine if the fighting lasts longer than a month.

- This could very well end in a "Russian win". But since they look to accomplish many things at once, their original objective of regime change seems to have been cast aside, they're not prioritizing major cities and they don't seem to have the forces/logistics to conquer Kiev, no one knows what the hell a "Russian win" actually means or looks like anymore.

The only problem with the war of attrition point is I don’t see how Putin can politically pull it off. I know he dominates the news waves in Russia but I don’t see how forced conscription or seizing private business for the war effort when the country is teetering on economic collapse doesn’t see pushback on the home front

Except for the fact that, sadly and somewhat bewilderingly, anywhere from 55-65% of the Russian people tend to lean towards supporting what they know as the 'Special Military Operation' according to most polling I've seen on the issue. Putin has done a relatively decent job at whipping up nationalistic fervor and spreading his own debauched justifications to rural Russians/Older Russians who primarily consume state news.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

https://twitter.com/DonaldJTrumpJr/status/1506702774674808842
1. Ukraines treatment of LGBT+ individuals isn't the best, for sure. It's still a quite Conservative country overall, but one that has a growing LGBT rights movement and is quickly liberalizing on a pace that is similar to other Western countries, especially among young people. Queer people are not persecuted in Ukraine as they are on the level of Russia for instance.

2. Trump Jr's attempt to use LGBT people as a reason to push 'Ukrainian Nazi' BS conspiracy theories is the worst part, even though I'm sure he thinks he's being clever. He isn't. The Trump family really aren't hiding their allegiances in this conflict, are they?

I'd rather celebrate the LGBT people in Ukraine on the front lines of the war against Russian imperialism. The truth is, Ukraine is a society in the early stages of developing a vibrant democracy and open society, Russia is an autocratic mafia state where minorities are ruthlessly suppressed, which side should LGBT people be on?

https://twitter.com/Openly/status/1505845307661336580?s=20&t=BJ2ZmRi01rs-C8t...
https://twitter.com/PinkNews/status/1500965012730490895?s=20&t=BJ2ZmRi01rs-C...
Would you ever see that in Russia? I think not.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2022/mar/22/i-will-not-be-held-prisoner-the-trans-women-turned-back-at-ukraines-borders

Transwoman are counted as men for the ban on leaving.

Has anyone actually looked at where Zelensky stands on the issues? He was one of the good guys even before the invasion. Probably even a little too liberal for me.

It's possible to believe that Ukrainian border guard treatment of Trans individuals is problematic (to put it lightly) but that Ukraine is still the better side for LGBT+ people overall. As another poster said, they have the ability to change and be better -- and are showing progress on this issue. Russia is a backwards totalitarian anti-LGBT junta in comparison to Ukraine.

Here's an Article that talks a bit about what you're saying; Zelenskyy’s Bravery Is Nothing New to the LGBTQ+ Community

But for us in the LGBTQ+ community, his bravery comes as no surprise. While Ukraine has a history of not being a bastion of LGBTQ+ liberation — the country doesn’t recognize same-sex marriage — Zelenskyy became Ukraine’s first presidential candidate and first president to acknowledge the LGBTQ+ community and publicly state his desire to do more about equality.

During his campaign for president in 2019. Zelenskyy became somewhat of a global star when a video of him shouting down anti-LGBTQ+ hecklers went viral. While the protesters yelled, Zelenskyy angrily said, "Won't say anything bad about gay people to you, because [we are] living in a free society. Leave those people alone, for God's sake!" He was universally applauded for his bravery in defending our community.

Would Putin in a million years say to allow LGBT+ people to live in freedom & peace? I think not.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

So much disinfo and wishcasting. It's okay to condemn Russia but let's be honest about this situation.

Sort of curious as to what you believe has been posted that is 'disinfo' by people on this thread. Sure, we're all fairly Pro-Ukrainian, but largely it's just factual accounts, as best as we can get from various sources in a war-battered country, about the Russian invasion and very real war crimes that are being committed against Ukrainian civilians.

Hell, we even mourn the Russian dead, certainly more than Putin's egotistical ass does.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Sort of curious as to what you believe has been posted that is 'disinfo' by people on this thread.

Every single article and tweet. People are free to post whatever they want, but should be mindful of what they're sharing.

Okay? That's a very strong statement to make without a single ounce of proof to back it up. I have a feeling you're being overly generic/broad to avoid having to back anything up though, so whatever you want to believe.

People are doing their best to suss-out accurate information on a very volatile situation. Of course everyone should be 'mindful' and approach anything posted with due caution/skepticism but I've personally found this thread to be a great source of largely verifiable and pretty well-sourced facts about the current 'Special Military Operation' as I'm sure you call it.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Okay? That's a very strong statement to make without a single ounce of proof to back it up. I have a feeling you're being overly generic/broad to avoid having to back anything up though, so whatever you want to believe.

People are doing their best to suss-out accurate information on a very volatile situation. Of course everyone should be 'mindful' and approach anything posted with due caution/skepticism but I've personally found this thread to be a great source of largely verifiable and pretty well-sourced facts about the current 'Special Military Operation' as I'm sure you call it.

Ghost of Kiev/Helicopters shot down/9k Russian deaths->40% of anti-air destroyed/Russia increasing from 200 to 300 sorties daily/stories planted by hackers

Nobody knows what the operations costs have been for Russia, sure. Tanks also have been rendered useless. But observers should be prepared for the inevitable.

1. An Article basically confirming what I just said; that getting information out of any war-zone is difficult and people should remain cautious of all news coming out of Ukraine
2. Locked behind a paywall.
3. Article about Ukraine being sent S-300 systems; and how they're scarce but NATO allies are replacing them with Patriot systems for Eastern European allies who will send them.

I'm not sure how any of those prove your point? I'll say it again, be properly skeptical and cautious when confronting any information but your broad claims that everything posted here is a lie or that somehow we're distorting information is I think wish-casting of your own.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1506877559056838664?s=20&t=6xkUIV-DmYrppv...
Multiple reports of large explosions around the port of Berdyansk, which last I heard was under full Russian occupation and even being used to resupply Russian ships. Suppose something as simple as poor-handling of war materials could cause this; but explosions are never usually a good thing.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Ukrainian Navy saying the Orsk, a beachable landing ship, was destroyed. Well that's gonna screw with their logistics efforts.

Question becomes what could they have possibly used to accomplish that? Stay-behind team? Their beleaguered Air Force? A version of the Skif? If the latter, which I think most likely, then those little things had way more firepower than I realized.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

I’m very strongly anti-war, but seeing the pictures of civilians shot execution style with hands behind their backs and mass graves makes my blood boil. I can’t even imagine what Mariupol looks like. If they continue to find more and more scenes like this, then I would be in favor of sending NATO troops in to directly fight the Russians.

Would that escalate things immensely? Yes. Would it likely lead to a broader war with Russia? Yes. But I’m sorry, if more scenes like today come out as more towns are liberated, I think we have to acknowledge that Kremlin leadership needs to be eliminated from this earth. In the 21st century, having a nation such as Russia engage in acts of genocide and ethnic cleansing simply cannot be tolerated.

Exactly. If a direct intervention leads to WW3, wouldn’t we be glad that a country like Russia no longer exists?

There is absolutely zero scenarios in which Russia 'no longer exists' but the rest of the world remains a pleasant place to live.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

I wish all the foreign chickenhawks cheering and hoping for further escalation in Ukraine (on both sides) get transported to the frontlines in the uniform of their choice. Accusing those of us who support harsh sanctions against Russia and continued arming of Ukraine of either going along with a hot war or essentially endorsing war crimes is straight out of the Rumsfeld/Cheney neoconservative march to war and 'You're either with us, or you're a terrorist' playbook.

The goal here should be to get rid of Putin and try to establish a working democracy but all of that work has to be done by Russians, voluntarily. We can encourage them with sanctions and information warfare but unless you want to start a war that would essentially turn Ukraine into an inhospitable wasteland and assist Putin in snatching victory from the jaws of defeat then the most sensible thing to do is to maintain course.

This isn't 1939 and as horrific as Russia is for a multitude of reasons they are not Nazi Germany.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

I wish all the foreign chickenhawks cheering and hoping for further escalation in Ukraine (on both sides) get transported to the frontlines in the uniform of their choice. Accusing those of us who support harsh sanctions against Russia and continued arming of Ukraine of either going along with a hot war or essentially endorsing war crimes is straight out of the Rumsfeld/Cheney neoconservative march to war and 'You're either with us, or you're a terrorist' playbook.

The goal here should be to get rid of Putin and try to establish a working democracy but all of that work has to be done by Russians, voluntarily. We can encourage them with sanctions and information warfare but unless you want to start a war that would essentially turn Ukraine into an inhospitable wasteland and assist Putin in snatching victory from the jaws of defeat then the most sensible thing to do is to maintain course.

This isn't 1939 and as horrific as Russia is for a multitude of reasons they are not Nazi Germany.

The Ukrainians can fight the Russians.

They don't need us to be there fighting for them.

What they need from us are war supplies: fighter aircrafts, surface to air missiles, etc.

Sure, and I'm in favor of giving them pretty much anything they ask for to defend themselves. Hell, I think the EU needs to go even further and ban Russian gas imports. Economic pain is a small price to pay to punish horrific war crimes.

But the keyboard warriors calling for escalation with vapid allusions to Chamberlain and 1939 need  a reality check and a cold shower. Directly intervening would only allow Putin to paint this as the 'Russia v. the West' conflict he so desperately wants rather than a universally condemned and botched military excursion.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

I wish all the foreign chickenhawks cheering and hoping for further escalation in Ukraine (on both sides) get transported to the frontlines in the uniform of their choice. Accusing those of us who support harsh sanctions against Russia and continued arming of Ukraine of either going along with a hot war or essentially endorsing war crimes is straight out of the Rumsfeld/Cheney neoconservative march to war and 'You're either with us, or you're a terrorist' playbook.

The goal here should be to get rid of Putin and try to establish a working democracy but all of that work has to be done by Russians, voluntarily. We can encourage them with sanctions and information warfare but unless you want to start a war that would essentially turn Ukraine into an inhospitable wasteland and assist Putin in snatching victory from the jaws of defeat then the most sensible thing to do is to maintain course.

This isn't 1939 and as horrific as Russia is for a multitude of reasons they are not Nazi Germany.

The Ukrainians can fight the Russians.

They don't need us to be there fighting for them.

What they need from us are war supplies: fighter aircrafts, surface to air missiles, etc.

Sure, and I'm in favor of giving them pretty much anything they ask for to defend themselves. Hell, I think the EU needs to go even further and ban Russian gas imports. Economic pain is a small price to pay to punish horrific war crimes.

But the keyboard warriors calling for escalation with vapid allusions to Churchill and 1939 need  a reality check and a cold shower. Directly intervening would only allow Putin to paint this as the 'Russia v. the West' conflict he so desperately wants rather than a universally condemned and botched military excursion.

Do you take back what you said about Iraq . Saying it was worse than anything Russia will do in Ukraine

If I correctly remember the conversation you're talking about that was before Mariupol was leveled to the ground, Russia started shelling apartments, hospitals, civilian infrastructure, etc and I specifically prefaced that at the moment Iraq was worse, I did not say it was worse than 'anything Russia will do in Ukraine' ever.

The Iraq War given that it lasted over a decade and destabilized an entire region still had worse consequences overall. But yes, it should be obvious that Russian rules of war on the ground are worse than how the US military treated Iraqi civilians. And if this conflict continues on for much longer I fully believe it has the capacity to be an Iraq level catastrophe and possibly even worse in many ways.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1510402861536055302?s=20&t=1_G_x5H9...

https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1510892851915284482?s=20&t=1_G_x5H9_NT...

Good on Poland; and there needs to be some real answers and accountability before Russia is ever let back into the international community again in a significant way. Period.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1511031502049587206

If this doesn’t happen, that would be grounds to defund the UN.

Which would in turn make the UN dominated by China.

The UN is already completely useless.

The Security Council should be abolished or reformed, so that veto powers no longer exist. It's beyond depressing Russia and China can block everything.

At that point you might as well abolish the UN, its merely an avenue for some semblance of negotiating ground.

Even if this is true, the importance of the UN in facilitating discussion between people and countries who wouldn't otherwise be talking shouldn't be understated.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

German parliament passes a resolution in favour of supplying Ukraine with "heavy weapons". The focus of the resolution lies on replenishing Eastern European NATO armies with German arms if these countries are supplying Ukraine with heavy weapons of Soviet or Russian production, but the resolution also does not exclude direct exports of heavy weapons of German production to Ukraine.

Resolution was supported by SPD, CDU/CSU, Greens, and FDP.
AfD and Left opposed it.
586 voted in favour, 100 against, with seven abstentions.


https://twitter.com/business/status/1519603855838916614

Horseshoe theory in action!

AfD really likes Putin. Left likes Putin less, but is pacifist and hates America (insert whataboutism about Iraq war).

This is mirrored around the western world, really. The far right loves Putin and "strong men" leaders in general, while the far left hates the US/NATO.

The far right are really a bunch of fascists and I wouldn't expect anything better from them, but it really frustrates me how misguided many on the far left are. They should ing know better at this point. Even here in Denmark, our main far left party keeps insisting that NATO is bad, they just cannot admit that they have been wrong on this.

Of course, the criticism of NATO and the US is usually coming from the fact that ultimately the US system of global government is still the Chief architect of a neoliberal global order that is crushing the soul of humanity and smothering people under the boot of Capitalism and Profit. Or as Lenin said, -

"When a war is waged by two opposing groups of robbers for the sake of deciding who shall have a freer hand to oppress more people, then the question of the origin of the war is of no real economic or political significance."

So while I do agree with you that there is a very clear greater and lesser evil when it comes to Ukraine; and NATO imo is actually a net boon for Left-Wing and Progressive movements; the side of me that sympathizes with the romanticism of revolutionary socialists understands their perspective.

The fascists just want to see the world burn under the heel of totalitarian oppression; period.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Some Nazi sh*t:
https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1535029213862023169

It’s a genocide and I prefer a large nuclear exchange to a future where this regularly happens.

No, causing the deaths of an additional millions of innocent men, women and children isn’t the way to avenge those children, either.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/19/energy/germany-russia-gas-supplies-winter-intl/index.html

"Germany to fire up coal stations as Russia squeezes gas supply"

The Western Left faces many impossible trinities.  One of them with respect to energy policy is you can have a most 2 of the 3:

a) No Putin/MBS
b) No nuclear power
c) No local hydrocarbon energy

So the Western Left has to pick which one of the 3 to give up.

Well the "Western Left" has never been monolithically anti-nuclear power, and that is a trend I expect to see accelerate following recent events.

Count me among the "Western Left" who are unashamedly pro-nuclear power.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Supporting a right to conquest genocide is a valid position to take, no one should be banned for it.

Literally you. Disgusting.

The slippery slope of fascism.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Supporting a right to conquest genocide is a valid position to take, no one should be banned for it.

Literally you. Disgusting.

The slippery slope of fascism.

Supporting genocide is definitely grounds to be banned. But thinking countries have the right to invade other countries really shouldn’t be.

One pretty much inherently leads to the other. To suggest otherwise would be to largely ignore world history when it comes to countries conquering each other for their own ambition and gains. You’re either naive to that, or given past comments by yourself excusing grotesque ideologies like fascism, willfully ignorant if it suits you.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

And they say Ukraine needs to be 'denazified'; Russia is clearly acting as a force for evil over the last few years. Hopefully ordinary Russian people can get a grip on things before they all go too astray to be redeemed.