Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Badger]

Seems like Lukashenko has more sense then Putin.

https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1506466784815288327

 Whoever expected that Lukashenko would play the role, albeit even tentatively and borderline, as an FF in this conflict?

He isn't stupid.

He knows that if he sent his troops into Ukraine, there would be another coup and he probably won't be able to survive this one.

 Oh I get it. He is still fundamentally a dictatorial POS and abuser of human rights. And i totally agree hes acting in self interest.

But at the same time as that Twitter feed notes he is risking Putin trying to take him out with a coup as well. I understand that he is that he is just balancing the odds as to which to which decision will more likely oust him from power, and if it turns 51% in favor of being ousted by not invading then he'll send the troops in. It's just odd that even through naked self interest and real politic he is making decisions that benefit the Ukraine and liberal democracy..

[jojoju1998]

I would rather be a LGBTQ person in Ukraine than Russian just saying. Ukraine, there is no where to go  but up after this, if and when they win.

They have the capacity to improve.

[Storr]

Seems like Lukashenko has more sense then Putin.

https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1506466784815288327

 Whoever expected that Lukashenko would play the role, albeit even tentatively and borderline, as an FF in this conflict?

He isn't stupid.

He knows that if he sent his troops into Ukraine, there would be another coup and he probably won't be able to survive this one.

 Oh I get it. He is still fundamentally a dictatorial POS and abuser of human rights. And i totally agree hes acting in self interest.

But at the same time as that Twitter feed notes he is risking Putin trying to take him out with a coo as well. I understand that he is that he is just balancing the odds as to which to which decision will more likely oust him from power, and if it turns 51% in favor of hitting me ousted by not invading then he'll send the troops in. It's just odd that even through naked self interest and real politic he is making decisions that benefit the Ukraine and liberal democracy..

I agree, Lukashenko has power only up to a point. He's not stupid and knows Belarus doesn't stand a chance if the Russians are getting mauled by the Ukrainians. The army was a key player in stamping out the 2020 post "election type event" protests. There simply won't be a mass movement in support of him (like in opposition to the failed 1991 Soviet coup). He knows if the army decides to overthrow him, he's done. I'm certain the prospect of getting involved in Ukraine is extremely unpopular among the Belarusian military leadership. I don't know how likely it would be, but I could see a coup happening if the orders to invade Ukraine are given.

But simply, if Putin decides he wants the Belarusian Army to join the invasion of Ukraine, the Belarusian Army will invade Ukraine. Lukashenko is too dependent on Russian trade (42% of exports, 57% of imports) and since 2020 owes his continued power to Putin. As we all know, Putin isn't shy when it comes to cashing in on leverage over others.

[Storr]

I would rather be a LGBTQ person in Ukraine than Russian just saying. Ukraine, there is no where to go  but up after this, if and when they win.

They have the capacity to improve.

Yeah, (I assume) this isn't a move meant punish trans people out of LGBTQ hate or predjudice. It seems to be a decision taken because Ukraine needs as many soldiers available as possible because well....the country is being invaded by a neighbor with 140 million people. I'm actually surprised Ukraine hasn't had a larger effort to use women in the war effort (like the Soviet Union in WWII).

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/Euan_MacDonald/status/1506720034462310408

[President Johnson]

As an immediate response to this, Moscow announced to expel US diplomats.

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1506705499596722185

[ugabug]

https://twitter.com/RichardEngel/status/1506660525106778120?cxt=HHwWkMC-wfrw3egp...

Though shouldn't get to excited yet about the encirclement.

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1506721123387559936?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw...

[2952-0-0]

https://twitter.com/space_osint/status/1506688082657091584?s=20&t=sn22b6gweW...

I wonder what Ukraine is getting in exchange. Better be real good.

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1506725941480939525

[Farmlands]

It's amazing what the Ukrainians have been able to do in these last few days with all the places they've taken back. I thought for sure before Russia invaded, that the country would inevitably fall within 3 weeks at most, and I couldn't be more glad my assessment was wrong. Keep up the fight!

[President Johnson]

It's amazing what the Ukrainians have been able to do in these last few days with all the places they've taken back. I thought for sure before Russia invaded, that the country would inevitably fall within 3 weeks at most, and I couldn't be more glad my assessment was wrong. Keep up the fight!

Yeah, I'm pretty impressed as well. Some of the miliary experts on German TV echo what has already been posted here that Ukraine indeed as a real chance to win this war.

It was also made the point how much Ukraine improved its military with Western assistance since 2014. I just heard one analyst on TV saying they would have been in a position to concquer Crimea back two years from now, which played into Putin's decision to get in now.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Though shouldn't get to excited yet about the encirclement.

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1506721123387559936?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw...

So Ukraine is gonna conserve their energy and focus on besiegement & starvation rather than a single blow that could get messy? My excitement over the encirclement has not been tempered by that news.

Imagine predicting in this thread, when the 'Special Military Operation' was announced, that Ukraine would be in a position to encircle Russian troops & reclaim territory by week 4 (Or at all).

Hell, folks weren't even confident Zelensky would live to see the first weekend of the invasion, let alone the first month if it came to that.

This kinda makes me wanna read the entire thread to see how opinions have changed in the last month.

[Logical]

If Shoygu is "unwell" then who is actually in charge of moving this trainwreck? https://twitter.com/ALanoszka/status/1506720788489121801

[AndyHogan14]

If Shoygu is "unwell" then who is actually in charge of moving this trainwreck? https://twitter.com/ALanoszka/status/1506720788489121801

You know, being pushed out of a window is notoriously bad for one's heart.

[Frodo]

Seems like Lukashenko has more sense then Putin.

https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1506466784815288327

 Whoever expected that Lukashenko would play the role, albeit even tentatively and borderline, as an FF in this conflict?

He isn't stupid.

He knows that if he sent his troops into Ukraine, there would be another coup and he probably won't be able to survive this one.

 Oh I get it. He is still fundamentally a dictatorial POS and abuser of human rights. And i totally agree hes acting in self interest.

But at the same time as that Twitter feed notes he is risking Putin trying to take him out with a coup as well. I understand that he is that he is just balancing the odds as to which to which decision will more likely oust him from power, and if it turns 51% in favor of being ousted by not invading then he'll send the troops in. It's just odd that even through naked self interest and real politic he is making decisions that benefit the Ukraine and liberal democracy..

Here is a 'balancing act' for Alexander Lukashenko -he orders the Belarusian military to invade western Ukraine in accordance with Putin's wishes, and then immediately gets on a plane with his one-way ticket to Moscow to join his Ukrainian counterpart Viktor Yanukovych in exile.  If nothing else, he has a better chance at survival and self-preservation while avoiding accountability than with any other plan.  

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

On the eve of 1 month of Ukrainian resistance, some fine aged takes from the forum's favorite tankie:

Ukraine is the one that first sued for peace. Macron said yesterday that Zelensky asked him to ask Putin to stop the fighting and Zelensky recorded a public message today saying the same. They will surely give up a lot if this results in an armistice and peace terms. Turns out the "Ukrainians are holding up well" idea was overly optimistic and a mistaken impression given by a few anecdotal Twitter reports.

And after that message from the Kremlin, back to the studio.

You can call it a message from the Kremlin, from Zhongnanhai, whatever. It's the clear reality and the truth at this point. Kiev is under siege, 1.5 days into the offensive, and Zelensky sued for peace publicly. Asking for an armistice with enemy troops on your land is not an action to take when winning, Finland still lost territory from the Winter War despite performing much better than expectations. I get that you're cheerleading for a side here but reality doesn't care about that.

I'm aware of the geography and that Kiev is highly vulnerable to an attack from Belarus. However this should have also been obvious to the Ukrainian military who could have been preparing defenses in depth between the border and Kiev, which they either didn't do or did a very poor job. Whether it's impressive or not, Zelensky is now under threat himself and that's what probably forced him to ask for an armistice. It's definitely not at all comparable to the Winter War, which saw the Finns repel multiple Soviet attacks and keep the Soviets off their land for 3 months and had a 5-1 casualty ratio. I think there has been a moving of goalposts by the West where the Russians are expected to win instantly and anything short of that is a disappointment, despite the situation on the ground where Ukraine will likely still lose within a week.

Reading this thread is like stepping in a parallel universe where Ukraine is winning the war, except IRL Kiev might be taken tonight, 2 days after the war started. I understand you're all cheerleading for one side, but you should at least read some of the Tweets you're posting and realize that they actually reveal what dire straits Ukraine is in, like the post about the TV program showing how to make Molotov cocktails and the video of Zelensky on the street in Kiev vowing to fight to the end and saying how we may not see him again.

Ukraine may well lose this war, but these takes will always be terrible. They read like Putin's own fantasies: capturing Kyiv in 2 days and winning the war in 1 week.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Seems like Lukashenko has more sense then Putin.

https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1506466784815288327

 Whoever expected that Lukashenko would play the role, albeit even tentatively and borderline, as an FF in this conflict?

He isn't stupid.

He knows that if he sent his troops into Ukraine, there would be another coup and he probably won't be able to survive this one.

 Oh I get it. He is still fundamentally a dictatorial POS and abuser of human rights. And i totally agree hes acting in self interest.

But at the same time as that Twitter feed notes he is risking Putin trying to take him out with a coup as well. I understand that he is that he is just balancing the odds as to which to which decision will more likely oust him from power, and if it turns 51% in favor of being ousted by not invading then he'll send the troops in. It's just odd that even through naked self interest and real politic he is making decisions that benefit the Ukraine and liberal democracy..

Here is a 'balancing act' for Alexander Lukashenko -he orders the Belarusian military to invade western Ukraine in accordance with Putin's wishes, and then immediately gets on a plane with his one-way ticket to Moscow to join his Ukrainian counterpart Viktor Yanukovych in exile.  If nothing else, he has a better chance at survival and self-preservation while avoiding accountability than with any other plan.  

Do you think he makes it to the plane though?

[lfromnj]

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2022/mar/22/i-will-not-be-held-prisoner-the-trans-women-turned-back-at-ukraines-borders

Transwoman are counted as men for the ban on leaving.

[Middle-aged Europe]

On the eve of 1 month of Ukrainian resistance, some fine aged takes from the forum's favorite tankie:

Ukraine is the one that first sued for peace. Macron said yesterday that Zelensky asked him to ask Putin to stop the fighting and Zelensky recorded a public message today saying the same. They will surely give up a lot if this results in an armistice and peace terms. Turns out the "Ukrainians are holding up well" idea was overly optimistic and a mistaken impression given by a few anecdotal Twitter reports.

And after that message from the Kremlin, back to the studio.

You can call it a message from the Kremlin, from Zhongnanhai, whatever. It's the clear reality and the truth at this point. Kiev is under siege, 1.5 days into the offensive, and Zelensky sued for peace publicly. Asking for an armistice with enemy troops on your land is not an action to take when winning, Finland still lost territory from the Winter War despite performing much better than expectations. I get that you're cheerleading for a side here but reality doesn't care about that.

I'm aware of the geography and that Kiev is highly vulnerable to an attack from Belarus. However this should have also been obvious to the Ukrainian military who could have been preparing defenses in depth between the border and Kiev, which they either didn't do or did a very poor job. Whether it's impressive or not, Zelensky is now under threat himself and that's what probably forced him to ask for an armistice. It's definitely not at all comparable to the Winter War, which saw the Finns repel multiple Soviet attacks and keep the Soviets off their land for 3 months and had a 5-1 casualty ratio. I think there has been a moving of goalposts by the West where the Russians are expected to win instantly and anything short of that is a disappointment, despite the situation on the ground where Ukraine will likely still lose within a week.

Reading this thread is like stepping in a parallel universe where Ukraine is winning the war, except IRL Kiev might be taken tonight, 2 days after the war started. I understand you're all cheerleading for one side, but you should at least read some of the Tweets you're posting and realize that they actually reveal what dire straits Ukraine is in, like the post about the TV program showing how to make Molotov cocktails and the video of Zelensky on the street in Kiev vowing to fight to the end and saying how we may not see him again.

Ukraine may well lose this war, but these takes will always be terrible. They read like Putin's own fantasies: capturing Kyiv in 2 days and winning the war in 1 week.

The important thing is that China and the developing world are creating a counterbalance to the West's imperialism, comrade!

[Person Man]

Seems like Lukashenko has more sense then Putin.

https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1506466784815288327

 Whoever expected that Lukashenko would play the role, albeit even tentatively and borderline, as an FF in this conflict?

He isn't stupid.

He knows that if he sent his troops into Ukraine, there would be another coup and he probably won't be able to survive this one.

 Oh I get it. He is still fundamentally a dictatorial POS and abuser of human rights. And i totally agree hes acting in self interest.

But at the same time as that Twitter feed notes he is risking Putin trying to take him out with a coup as well. I understand that he is that he is just balancing the odds as to which to which decision will more likely oust him from power, and if it turns 51% in favor of being ousted by not invading then he'll send the troops in. It's just odd that even through naked self interest and real politic he is making decisions that benefit the Ukraine and liberal democracy..

Here is a 'balancing act' for Alexander Lukashenko -he orders the Belarusian military to invade western Ukraine in accordance with Putin's wishes, and then immediately gets on a plane with his one-way ticket to Moscow to join his Ukrainian counterpart Viktor Yanukovych in exile.  If nothing else, he has a better chance at survival and self-preservation while avoiding accountability than with any other plan.  

You Russia could come out with less territory than when it started?

[MaxQue]

On the eve of 1 month of Ukrainian resistance, some fine aged takes from the forum's favorite tankie:

Ukraine is the one that first sued for peace. Macron said yesterday that Zelensky asked him to ask Putin to stop the fighting and Zelensky recorded a public message today saying the same. They will surely give up a lot if this results in an armistice and peace terms. Turns out the "Ukrainians are holding up well" idea was overly optimistic and a mistaken impression given by a few anecdotal Twitter reports.

And after that message from the Kremlin, back to the studio.

You can call it a message from the Kremlin, from Zhongnanhai, whatever. It's the clear reality and the truth at this point. Kiev is under siege, 1.5 days into the offensive, and Zelensky sued for peace publicly. Asking for an armistice with enemy troops on your land is not an action to take when winning, Finland still lost territory from the Winter War despite performing much better than expectations. I get that you're cheerleading for a side here but reality doesn't care about that.

I'm aware of the geography and that Kiev is highly vulnerable to an attack from Belarus. However this should have also been obvious to the Ukrainian military who could have been preparing defenses in depth between the border and Kiev, which they either didn't do or did a very poor job. Whether it's impressive or not, Zelensky is now under threat himself and that's what probably forced him to ask for an armistice. It's definitely not at all comparable to the Winter War, which saw the Finns repel multiple Soviet attacks and keep the Soviets off their land for 3 months and had a 5-1 casualty ratio. I think there has been a moving of goalposts by the West where the Russians are expected to win instantly and anything short of that is a disappointment, despite the situation on the ground where Ukraine will likely still lose within a week.

Reading this thread is like stepping in a parallel universe where Ukraine is winning the war, except IRL Kiev might be taken tonight, 2 days after the war started. I understand you're all cheerleading for one side, but you should at least read some of the Tweets you're posting and realize that they actually reveal what dire straits Ukraine is in, like the post about the TV program showing how to make Molotov cocktails and the video of Zelensky on the street in Kiev vowing to fight to the end and saying how we may not see him again.

Ukraine may well lose this war, but these takes will always be terrible. They read like Putin's own fantasies: capturing Kyiv in 2 days and winning the war in 1 week.

He's not a tankie, he's a fan of Winnie the Pooh.

[Torie]

Seems like Lukashenko has more sense then Putin.

https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1506466784815288327

 Whoever expected that Lukashenko would play the role, albeit even tentatively and borderline, as an FF in this conflict?

He isn't stupid.

He knows that if he sent his troops into Ukraine, there would be another coup and he probably won't be able to survive this one.

 Oh I get it. He is still fundamentally a dictatorial POS and abuser of human rights. And i totally agree hes acting in self interest.

But at the same time as that Twitter feed notes he is risking Putin trying to take him out with a coo as well. I understand that he is that he is just balancing the odds as to which to which decision will more likely oust him from power, and if it turns 51% in favor of hitting me ousted by not invading then he'll send the troops in. It's just odd that even through naked self interest and real politic he is making decisions that benefit the Ukraine and liberal democracy..

I agree, Lukashenko has power only up to a point. He's not stupid and knows Belarus doesn't stand a chance if the Russians are getting mauled by the Ukrainians. The army was a key player in stamping out the 2020 post "election type event" protests. There simply won't be a mass movement in support of him (like in opposition to the failed 1991 Soviet coup). He knows if the army decides to overthrow him, he's done. I'm certain the prospect of getting involved in Ukraine is extremely unpopular among the Belarusian military leadership. I don't know how likely it would be, but I could see a coup happening if the orders to invade Ukraine are given.

But simply, if Putin decides he wants the Belarusian Army to join the invasion of Ukraine, the Belarusian Army will invade Ukraine. Lukashenko is too dependent on Russian trade (42% of exports, 57% of imports) and since 2020 owes his continued power to Putin. As we all know, Putin isn't shy when it comes to cashing in on leverage over others.

If Belarus wanted to go neutral it would not worry about economics (the West would make it whole and more, and that is an easy lift), it is more of a matter as to how much Belarus believes Putin will do to Belarus what it is doing to Ukraine, at the same time. The hunger for a not too lethal off ramp gets ever more demanding.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Russia's low-energy attempt at an resolution on Ukraine has failed to pass the UN Security Council. Only China joined them in voting for it, everybody else - including usual suspects India und UAE - abstained.


https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1506749470511439875


https://twitter.com/PamelaFalk/status/1506745137329758209

[Logical]

Must read thread
https://twitter.com/trbrtc/status/1506739285227147268

[Storr]

If Shoygu is "unwell" then who is actually in charge of moving this trainwreck? https://twitter.com/ALanoszka/status/1506720788489121801

This is literally out of the Soviet playbook. Kruschev "voluntarily retired" due to "advanced age and ill health", of course.