Beto O’Rourke 2020 campaign megathread

[GoTfan]

Real question, when are we actually going to see Beto’s policies? Because right now the only indication are his blue dog endorsements (plus half of his support on here is from #bothsides moderate heroes, Republicans, and libertarians). I want to like Beto, but I really need to know what he’s running as first.

So when Beto initially said he wasn’t supporting Medicare for All as a presidential candidate I was miffed and briefly stopped supporting him because I thought he had nothing in place and would try to negotiate something with obstructionist Republicans. I walked it back when he came out in favor of Medicare for America which was written by Reps. DeLauro and Schakowsky. Medicare for America would move everyone from the ACA Exchange to Medicare, folks (like myself) who are about to age out of their parent’s insurance can join as well as others not insured, and all children born after its enaction would be born into the program. The main difference between this and Bernie’s plan is that people can retain their employer insurance if they so choose. This is much more realistic and puts us on a path to single payer.

The purists will hate it but it is ambitious and will get us to universal coverage. Eliminating all private insurance is unrealistic.

https://slate.com/business/2019/03/beto-orourke-health-plan-medicare-for-all-america.html

I need to find the link but while 81% of Dems would support Medicare for All, 91% support Medicare for America. Bernie supporters who think he can snap his fingers and make all his dreams the law of the land will resist this but Beto’s plan is progressive and attainable.

It is a crap policy vs Single Payer. It is a buy-in which will have little effect on millions of uninsured & underinsured & would continue to encourage a system with huge per capita spending with poor results.

And it will never lead to Universal healthcare which neoliberals don't want anyways. They just should be open & accept it.

The uninsured, people on Medicaid, and people who get their insurance through the ACA exchanges would automatically be put onto Medicare, while the other half of the country would get to choose between Medicare and their employer’s insurance. Newborns would be automatically enrolled. Everyone would immediately have some form of health insurance - which is what universal coverage is, by definition - and within 40 or so years I guess everyone who currently has employer insurance will be retired or dead, and so by ~2060 everyone will have government insurance.

Not that I’d expect socialists to read legislation; legislating isn’t revolutionary enough and policy is for the bourgeoisie.

Yet another scalding hot (and wrong) take.

[GoTfan]

The two most important states in 2020 will be Florida & Wisconsin. Amendment 4 (Voting Rights Restoration) having been passed and now implemented in Florida.

Maybe I spoke too soon. YIKES!

https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2019/03/19/felon-vote-sparks-battle-for-florida-as-gop-moves-to-define-rights-921875

Well 2020 is going to a a garbage fire.

[GoTfan]

We got the fundraising numbers:

https://twitter.com/ryanobles/status/1108365181439148037

Id say this is a really great start for Beto, not only because of the fact that he outraised Sanders, but he did so with less people. This means that if Beto's campaign, if he emerges as a frontrunner, could scale rather well, and he may become a fundraising machine.

On the otherhand, this kinda plays into the idea that Beto's numbers were just larger and less plentiful, which may signify a weakness in how large his base is(of course, this is day 1, so I doubt this will stick).

Pretty good day to be a Beto supporter, Id say, and a pretty bad day to be a Sanders/Harris supporter. Now we just need Biden for the full picture.

While those are strong numbers to be sure, I think the fact that Sanders beat him in terms of the number of individual donors by almost 100K is still something to consider. Money does matter, but currently (this could change), it seems like there are more actual voters behind Sanders.

I think that’s a very valid point. It’s cool that Beto’s numbers are under $50 per person, but there’s still more Sanders folks as of now. It does put to rest the idea that all of Beto’s money came from oil tycoons dropping $2,700 per tycoon on his campaign.

Releasing things piecemeal can be a very good way to keep your name in the news. I feel like that might be what the O’Rourke campaign is trying to do.

The problem I forsee is that releasing things piecemeal gives more time for other candidates to put together attacks on you. It gives off the impression that you're not that confident. For someone like Sanders, this is some great news.

[GoTfan]

The one thing with Beto is he certainly isn't low energy. My god, the amount of rallies and stops - he really does love campaigning and meeting people. I'm not sure who I support at the moment but I'm definitely impressed by his energy so far.

This is the kind of thing that matters in a general election. That's why he has my support. No voter has the "he's so uninspiring" excuse, like they use with other candidates, whether justified or not.

I can admit that. Beto's biggest strength is that he's a vigorous campaigner. He's one of the younger candidates, so he has to use that as a strength.

[GoTfan]

He’d definitely visit Wisconsin and Michigan in the general.

He already did.

Making a visit before the primaries have even started is not going to translate to a general election.

[GoTfan]

He’d definitely visit Wisconsin and Michigan in the general.

He already did.

Making a visit before the primaries have even started is not going to translate to a general election.

Do you honestly believe this?

"Sure, Beto was breathing air ten minutes ago, but that doesn't mean he'll be breathing air in an hour!!"

That's not the point I was making and you know it. You wanted to get in a cheap shot.

A visit to a state before the beginning to primaries is not necessarily going to translate to votes in a general election more than a year away. A lot of things can change between now and November next year.

[GoTfan]

He’d definitely visit Wisconsin and Michigan in the general.

He already did.

Making a visit before the primaries have even started is not going to translate to a general election.

Do you honestly believe this?

"Sure, Beto was breathing air ten minutes ago, but that doesn't mean he'll be breathing air in an hour!!"

The Bernie personality cult will do anything to tear down Beto.

Yet again. You completely and utterly miss the point I was making. Guess I should be used to that by now.

[GoTfan]

He’d definitely visit Wisconsin and Michigan in the general.

He already did.

Making a visit before the primaries have even started is not going to translate to a general election.

Do you honestly believe this?

"Sure, Beto was breathing air ten minutes ago, but that doesn't mean he'll be breathing air in an hour!!"

The Bernie personality cult will do anything to tear down Beto.

Yet again. You completely and utterly miss the point I was making. Guess I should be used to that by now.

Excuse me sir but I’ve been following my end of the deal. I haven’t posted about Bulgarian politics ever since I swore off international politics in exchange for you to stop posting about American politics.

And other international posters are allowed here because . . .

[GoTfan]

He's hired Jen O'Malley Dillon as his campaign manager.

This is probably a pretty smart hire.  She seems to be a data/ analytics expert, which will be important for a large grassroots style campaign that will need to make sure all of those supporters actually get to the polls.  I imagine she will also put some focus on counting delegate, something ppl thought Beto has failed to put much focus on.

Beto is someone who sees the Big Picture first, Details 2nd (most people do the opposite) - so it should be a good fit to have a campaign manager who is really strong regarding campaign data & details.

Really? I always heard from a friend in Shorten's office over here saying that the big picture was a bit of a myth.

[GoTfan]

I keep forgetting that Bernie is a horrible racist.

[GoTfan]

Unique contributions wasn't unique donors. Of course they dump this on a Friday.

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1109293384005570560

Your fear is showing

It's quite obvious who the Bernie people fear right now.

Likely because Beto will be Obama 2.0 and compromise on every single thing? He already backed off Medicare for All, and don't give me the stupid pragmatism argument.

[GoTfan]

It was a predominately white crowd at a predominately white university. Try harder.

Here he is like an hour later at an HBCU... lol

https://twitter.com/BetoORourke/status/1109197161311412225

So he tweeted a 4 photos of himself with African American students? If you want to refute the idea that Beto has significant minority support, the answer isnt to take a photo posted by the candidate in question.

You’re reaching deeper than this conversation was. Bernie was made fun of for having predominately white audiences in traditional black spaces such as a black church in a majority black town in South Carolina. Beto having a predominately white crowd at a predominately white university is not comparable. Beto did however have a black audience in a black space UNLIKE Bernie. It is what it is.

The CNN poll that just came out has Bernie's favorable with non white Democrats as 77-9 compared to Beto's 35-14. Beto really has a problem there.

I for one am not shocked that Bernie is more well known. Give it 4-6 months and then we can compare numbers to see where they stand. Not saying Beto will be more popular, but he still needs to get his name out there.

He's talking about favourability ratings, not name recognition.

[GoTfan]

Calling Beto O'Rourke "Robert O'Rourke" is going to be the new version of calling the Democratic Party "the Democrat Party," isn't it? 

Yes. Rove has been doing it for a while now. Only he always uses the middle name too.

Robert Francis O'Rourke is pretty good as far as insults go.  It actually sounds pretty presidential.
as it will certainly make many think of-
Robert Francis Kennedy

Agreed, but it's a bit on the nose, isn't it?

[GoTfan]

Having a combined 30,000 for the 3 rallys is definitely a strong showing.  (granted I was optimistic or maybe naively expecting slightly higher numbers at the Austin Rally- but I guess timing is always a small factor- picking a time and date that will max out attendance, which is hard to accurately predict).

Hopefully these rally's will get decent coverage on Sunday shows.  But it seems like some of the cable media is almost forcing Beto to come on their shows in order to get good coverage (by not covering much of the rallies, egging on about lack of specifics, etc etc)....hich maybe what he has to start doing.  The rallys are especially good for early states & small states- but going on the cable show will help reach broader audience (and help gain more small dollar donors across the country).

---Or another strategy could be to continue slowly gaining wider grassroots support via rallies (while most candidates have to rely on Cable News town halls, going of shows, etc to gain supporters)...
Then start doing the media blitz in a couple of months when he has nailed down all of his policy specifics- and really try to break out of the pack at just the right time. 

Not sure which strategy would work the best?

Not to sound like some stupid pundit, but I think winning grassroots support will pay off for him in the end. He obviously is planning something along the lines of his Senate campaign, just on a national scale. He doesn't have the major star power someone like Harris or Sanders does. Those two will always pull in massive attention.

That said, he could use the rallies to unveil his key planks, which may actually kill the three bbirds of grassroots support, media attention and policy specifics all in one. That would be the approach I'd take.

[GoTfan]

https://twitter.com/patricksvitek/status/1112781526809313280?s=21

This is a really bad idea

I think I have to agree with you on this.

Yeah, I appreciate the transparency angle of it, but this could end up backfiring really hard.

Yeah. Transparency is good, but like you said, this could backfire spectacularly. Wouldn't a better solution be requiring a simple televised address to the public each month on their department's priorities?

[GoTfan]

https://twitter.com/wpjenna/status/1113497556414287874

The Bernie Bros told me oil and gas bundlers were keeping Beto's campaign afloat.

*conveniently forgets to mention Sanders' average donation was $23 less*

[GoTfan]

https://twitter.com/wpjenna/status/1113497556414287874

The Bernie Bros told me oil and gas bundlers were keeping Beto's campaign afloat.

*conveniently forgets to mention Sanders' average donation was $23 less*

*conveniently forgets to mention Sanders’ supporters are doing $1 donations multiple times*

You’re reaching. $43 is the donation size of wealthy elitists trying to force their puppet through? K.

And yet again, you completely miss the point.

[GoTfan]

https://twitter.com/wpjenna/status/1113497556414287874

The Bernie Bros told me oil and gas bundlers were keeping Beto's campaign afloat.

Beto's wife will likely help Beto remain strong with teachers going forward.  I assume part of Beto's strength with teachers comes from the commitment to education issues that he's talked about on the campaign trail during his Senate campaign... which are likely heavily influenced by his wife's (also a teacher/ education) involvement with & an work in education. I think she also ended up serving as superintended of the Non-profit bilingual charter public school in a low income section of El Paso that she helped form.

In his Senate campaign I think he often talked about marrying a teacher.   She taught kindergarten in Guatemala after college & was a first or Second grade teacher while they were dating & when they got married.  She has also been heavily involved in working to improve the public education system in El Paso.

His Education message would play really well in South Carolina (Which is a very Anti-Vouchers state & has many low income districts)... something he should talk about a lot when he makes SC campaign stops: Here is a quote from an article regarding Public Education:

"O'Rourke says he would like to increase federal aid to public schools in low-income communities. He also says teachers and local education officials should have more "autonomy" when it comes to setting classroom standards "and reduce the emphasis on arbitrary, high-stakes tests."

O'Rourke has also fought Private school vouchers, saying vouchers would take much-needed money away from public schools."  

I find myself coming around to him, but still slightly skeptical.

Hey, other candidates, speak up on this issue.

[GoTfan]

The purist haters will still say this wasn’t enough:

https://twitter.com/DJJudd/status/1117082915748438016

That is not what he was being criticised for and to pretend otherwise does not reflect well.

[GoTfan]

https://theintercept.com/2019/04/17/democratic-candidates-lobbyist-donations/

Beto, Harris, Booker & others are all raising money from lobbyists despite their pledge. Ofcourse this is not the first time Beto has broken a pledge.

Shhh. Not allowed to talk about that.

[GoTfan]

https://theintercept.com/2019/04/17/democratic-candidates-lobbyist-donations/

Beto, Harris, Booker & others are all raising money from lobbyists despite their pledge. Ofcourse this is not the first time Beto has broken a pledge.

Shhh. Not allowed to talk about that.

Complete non-story.  IMO.

"His latest filing, however, shows that he accepted donations from a federal utility-company lobbyist and a top Chevron lobbyist in New Mexico."

First of all- was this from the lobbyist in his individual capacity as a voter ... or on behalf of his lobbying efforts.

2nd-even if on behalf of lobby- this is 1 donation out of almost $10Million .... hardly a "gotcha moment" ... much more likely an oversight.  (why would a candidate only take 1 donation.  If not going to stick to the pledge, Beto would accept from any lobbyist and would have over $20Million by now)

I thought Beto supporters freely accepted criticism of their candidate. Saying something is a non-story doesn't make it go away.

[GoTfan]

https://theintercept.com/2019/04/17/democratic-candidates-lobbyist-donations/

Beto, Harris, Booker & others are all raising money from lobbyists despite their pledge. Ofcourse this is not the first time Beto has broken a pledge.

Shhh. Not allowed to talk about that.

Complete non-story.  IMO.

"His latest filing, however, shows that he accepted donations from a federal utility-company lobbyist and a top Chevron lobbyist in New Mexico."

First of all- was this from the lobbyist in his individual capacity as a voter ... or on behalf of his lobbying efforts.

2nd-even if on behalf of lobby- this is 1 donation out of almost $10Million .... hardly a "gotcha moment" ... much more likely an oversight.  (why would a candidate only take 1 donation.  If not going to stick to the pledge, Beto would accept from any lobbyist and would have over $20Million by now)

I thought Beto supporters freely accepted criticism of their candidate. Saying something is a non-story doesn't make it go away.

Apparently this was a lobbyist giving money (under the individual limits) in his/her individual capacity... not on behalf of the organization he/she lobbies for.

Just like people who happen to work in the oil & gas industry should be free to donate to any campaign in their individual capacity, regardless what job they happen to have... An individual who happens to be a lobbyist should also be able to donate to any candidates in their individual capacity, regardless of what job they may have. (and my guess is candidates are not even aware of who their individual donors are... or what job they happen to have).

Sure, of course it was a personal donation from someone who just happens to work as a lobbyist for the fossil fuels industry. You're not getting any red flags from that at all?

[GoTfan]

Beto is done, he didn't do any Town Halls, he just did campaigning. He needed more exposure than that.

There are still the debates, and he will definitely be in them. Though I agree that he should still do some media outreach like town halls in addition to his usual tactic of talking directly to voters.

The problem here is that town halls allow candidates to be questioned on their policy positions by voters. It might give off the impression that he doesn't want to be questioned who that he's not confident enough to be questioned.

Not saying it would, but he needs to finesse this point really carefully.

[GoTfan]

Beto is done, he didn't do any Town Halls, he just did campaigning. He needed more exposure than that.

There are still the debates, and he will definitely be in them. Though I agree that he should still do some media outreach like town halls in addition to his usual tactic of talking directly to voters.

The problem here is that town halls allow candidates to be questioned on their policy positions by voters. It might give off the impression that he doesn't want to be questioned who that he's not confident enough to be questioned.

Not saying it would, but he needs to finesse this point really carefully.

Huh? He has been doing town halls and taking questions for weeks. And posting them on his social media. This thing about being on CNN is just tremendously overblown. He will go on there when he’s good and ready.

If someone said that about another candidate you'd froth at the mouth in hatred.

[GoTfan]

We all gonna support the nominee; however, he should be showing up in polls in IA, that is an early state. Instead, Sanders has the momentum.

Here is Iowa 2003-04 Polls. (the most similar primary to the current one)...

Iowa'03......JAN.....JUNE....JULY....DEC...(JAN1...JAN15)...Final Result
Gephardt.....23.......25........21.......22........(20...18)..........10%  ....Biden?
Dean...........8........15........23.......26........(23...20)...........18%  .....Buttigieg?
Kerry..........24.......15........14........9.........(18...26)...........37%  .......Bernie?
Lieberman...13.......11........10........2...........(1...1)
Edwards......9.........5..........5.........5...........(9...23)...........32%  ........Beto?

Also- Throw in Wes Clark- who entered in late August & shot up to number 1 in the polls in Iowa... only to fall back and not finish in the top 5.

I would be very, very careful about applying stories from past primaries here. If there's one thing I've learnt so far, it's that this primary is going to be one of the most unpredictable.