Beto O’Rourke 2020 campaign megathread

[SCNCmod]

I hope the weather is nice in Texas this weekend.  Beto needs to have huge rallies on Saturday (or at least huge rallies would be helpful). After all I think the mark to beat is 20k (I think Kamala had 20k & Bernie had 12k).

[Sestak]

I hope the weather is nice in Texas this weekend.  Beto needs to have huge rallies on Saturday (or at least huge rallies would be helpful). After all I think the mark to beat is 20k (I think Kamala had 20k & Bernie had 12k).

Is this just referring to openings? Because Bernie got 16K in SF.

[henster]

I wish Beto had not joined the bandwagon of boycotting AIPAC.  It would have been better to attend and give a speech saying what he thinks (even if disagreeing on many issues).  Especially with the mantra of go everywhere, talk to everyone, not writing off anyone, etc.  (and it could help to lessen the untrue narrative that Beto is weak on policy details).

I also think it would be helpful for Beto to do more interviews (on set and off) with MSNBC & CNN.  After all this is where many primary voters get their news & it would help him control the narrative they are airing (since much of the narrative is unfairly portraying that Beto is weak on understanding policy etc). Especially Morning Shows, where there is a more conversational setting, where viewers would really get exposed to the candidates personality in addition to policies  Such a setting is why, like it or not, going on Morning Joe (especially in person) can have a lot of influence among primary voters.

CBS/NBC/ABC morning shows can also be important in this regard.

I definitely get the feeling (as a Jew mind you) that if Gantz forms a government next month then close to the entire Dem field would be rushing to support AIPAC, J street, and other organizations. Hell, Gantz forming a government would allow us to sniff out who exactly is truly antisemitic, since only the antisemitie would continues to oppose Israel despite Bibi leaving and policy towards the Arabs and the peace process changing.

So anyone who doesn’t support Israel is an antisemite? Even as a relatively pro-Israeli dem, my God, get a grip.

I think you misunderstood my post - or perhaps I was too forceful. There is legitimate criticism one can level at Israel. However, the majority of Antisemites (and this is a extreme group) on the left right now are hiding behind this thin line of legitimate criticism. When they get called out, they say that its Israeli policies that they are criticizing, or a variety of other things that flow from the Office currently occupied by one Bibi. Who like I said, is not beyond criticism - I don't like the guy and I think he is damaging our relationship by trying to tie Israel to the Republicans. But if Bibi is gone, this excuse vanishes. In fact most mainstream dem 'worries' about Israel right now flow from Bibi, and it makes sense that said mainstream dems would be happy with other who are more or less more mainstream liberals - Gantz, Lapid and B&W. GAProgressive gets it, its BIBI that most of the dem politicians have problems with, not Israel.

Now this is a Beto thread, so If you want to continue this discussion, lets take it somewhere else.

Hmm, its odd. We are on week 2 of Beto's announcement(week 3 by Thursday), and Beto still hasnt had a polling bounce. Im starting to think his strategy of announcing later than most of the competition may have diminished his possible gains.

He's jumped from like 5-6% to third or fourth place nationally IIRC

I also think Beto suffers from the same thing Harris has going one right now. They have a solid base, but the name recognition wall still stands firm. Biden and Sanders right now still have their shine, but once the media is solely about the dem field and their politiking, the white knights will come down to play with the rest. Harris, Beto, and to a lesser extent Buttegieg and Klobuchar are playing for those voters right now enamored by Bern&Bid, so we might not see large shifts until that late summer at the earliest.

Another thing is that a lot of the people (from all ages, genders, ethnicities) I have talked with have Beto as their number TWO. If this anecdote is occurring elsewhere, Beto might uniquely benefit from candidates dropping out. Its another thing he might share with Lincoln.

No one boycotted AIPAC they literally weren't invited.

[SCNCmod]

Fault some of the media for the AIPAC boycott narrative. 

[SCNCmod]

I hope the weather is nice in Texas this weekend.  Beto needs to have huge rallies on Saturday (or at least huge rallies would be helpful). After all I think the mark to beat is 20k (I think Kamala had 20k & Bernie had 12k).

Is this just referring to openings? Because Bernie got 16K in SF.

I was referring to opening... but 12k would be the same as 16k in the point I was making- that so far Kamala has the largest rally, which will therefore be what all subsequent ones are compared against.

[Boobs]

Facebook event RSVPs:

El Paso - 1.8K going + 4.5K interested = 6.3K

Houston - 2K going + 7.4K interested = 9.4K

Austin - 2.9K going + 11K interested = 13.9K

Obviously an imperfect measure, but it does lend some insight. Expect numbers to change as we get closer to Saturday.

[SCNCmod]

Facebook event RSVPs:

El Paso - 1.8K going + 4.5K interested = 6.3K

Houston - 2K going + 7.4K interested = 9.4K

Austin - 2.9K going + 11K interested = 13.9K

Obviously an imperfect measure, but it does lend some insight. Expect numbers to change as we get closer to Saturday.

If the actual attendance doubles (the combined number) by Saturday... it would definitely be a success.  Hopefully a lot of people who do not rsvp will end up just showing up on Saturday.

[Boobs]

Facebook event RSVPs:

El Paso - 1.8K going + 4.5K interested = 6.3K

Houston - 2K going + 7.4K interested = 9.4K

Austin - 2.9K going + 11K interested = 13.9K

Obviously an imperfect measure, but it does lend some insight. Expect numbers to change as we get closer to Saturday.

If the actual attendance doubles (the combined number) by Saturday... it would definitely be a success.  Hopefully a lot of people who do not rsvp will end up just showing up on Saturday.

It’s likely. Not everyone uses Facebook, not everyone in Facebook responds to events, etc etc.

[SCNCmod]

Why have almost all of the primary candidates (other than Beto), contacted or had a meeting with Stacey Abrams?  And if all of the others have, wonder why Beto hasn't followed suit?

Per CNN- apparently most of the Senators have met with Abrams (probably around the same time when she was in Washington recently)... and Hickenlooper, Buttigieg, and maybe someone else have contacted her via a phone call?

Not that I really understand the need for Beto to call Abrams at this point considering he's in the middle of rolling out his campaign.  But I do think (especially given his likeability and seemingly ability to sort of win people over) Beto could benefit a good amount... from contacting a lot of the Dem Personalities , Politicians, etc ... as well as a many of the national media personalities/ players, etc.  This would help cut off much of the nonsense about Beto not yet having a 500 page policy dissertation written out yet.  It would be a lot harder to make these meaningless digs at Beto (or any candidate) after getting to know him via an in person meeting or an on-set interview, etc.  

Pete is really utilizing the valuable publicity that comes from becoming sort of a regular on the various cable news shows.  Hopefully, after Beto's kickoff rallies, he will also become a frequent guest on Cable News shows as well (this would put him in control of the Beto narrative on these show- in addition to gaining supporters from people watching).

[henster]

Why have almost all of the primary candidates (other than Beto), contacted or had a meeting with Stacey Abrams?  And if all of the others have, wonder why Beto hasn't followed suit?

Per CNN- apparently most of the Senators have met with Abrams (probably around the same time when she was in Washington recently)... and Hickenlooper, Buttigieg, and maybe someone else have contacted her via a phone call?

Not that I really understand the need for Beto to call Abrams at this point considering he's in the middle of rolling out his campaign.  But I do think (especially given his likeability and seemingly ability to sort of win people over) Beto could benefit a good amount... from contacting a lot of the Dem Personalities , Politicians, etc ... as well as a many of the national media personalities/ players, etc.  This would help cut off much of the nonsense about Beto not yet having a 500 page policy dissertation written out yet.  It would be a lot harder to make these meaningless digs at Beto (or any candidate) after getting to know him via an in person meeting or an on-set interview, etc.  

Pete is really utilizing the valuable publicity that comes from becoming sort of a regular on the various cable news shows.  Hopefully, after Beto's kickoff rallies, he will also become a frequent guest on Cable News shows as well (this would put him in control of the Beto narrative on these show- in addition to gaining supporters from people watching).

The whole adulation for Stacey is weird, I don't see the same thing being done for Gillum.

[Rookie Yinzer]

The whole adulation for Stacey is weird, I don't see the same thing being done for Gillum.

Stacey Abrams transformed Georgia's electorate and made huge inroads in the Atlanta suburbs.

Gillum blew a cake walk race in a toss-up state.

Georgia's demographic shifts are also more favorable in the long term for Democrats. It will be consistently voting to the left of Florida by the end of the next decade.

[OneJ]

The whole adulation for Stacey is weird, I don't see the same thing being done for Gillum.

Stacey Abrams transformed Georgia's electorate and made huge inroads in the Atlanta suburbs.

Gillum blew a cake walk race in a toss-up state.

Georgia's demographic shifts are also more favorable in the long term for Democrats. It will be consistently voting to the left of Florida by the end of the next decade.

Florida, if anything, is just a Tilt R state that loves teasing the Democrats the majority of the time. It’s more of a shame that Nelson couldn’t hold onto his seat as he was an incumbent and facing Scott of all people. Only one democrat won statewide last year. However, I also still prefer Abrams for similar reasons.

[elephantower]

The whole adulation for Stacey is weird, I don't see the same thing being done for Gillum.

Stacey Abrams transformed Georgia's electorate and made huge inroads in the Atlanta suburbs.

Gillum blew a cake walk race in a toss-up state.

Georgia's demographic shifts are also more favorable in the long term for Democrats. It will be consistently voting to the left of Florida by the end of the next decade.

What evidence is there Gillum's at fault when the rest of the Democratic slate (including Fried) were within a few %age points?

[elephantower]

The whole adulation for Stacey is weird, I don't see the same thing being done for Gillum.

Stacey Abrams transformed Georgia's electorate and made huge inroads in the Atlanta suburbs.

Gillum blew a cake walk race in a toss-up state.

Georgia's demographic shifts are also more favorable in the long term for Democrats. It will be consistently voting to the left of Florida by the end of the next decade.

What evidence is there Gillum's at fault when the rest of the Democratic slate (including Fried) all got a similar share of the vote?

[Adam Griffin]

I don't know...I think each of the 3 candidates' performances more or less speak to the level of hype they are getting and deserve. One happened in a true swing state, one happened in a nominal/underdeveloped swing state and one happened in a deep red state.

Nobody's talking about Gillum because he only overperformed Clinton by 0.8 points. Abrams, in many ways, has gotten heaps of attention because she overperformed Clinton by 3.7 points. Beto's definitely getting more hype because not only did he overperform by 6.4 points, but he's actually told people what it is he's running for (just like my issue with Biden: kinda hard to care too much when it's a months-long or even years-long "Will I? Won't I?" tour).

[Rookie Yinzer]

but he's actually told people what it is he's running for

This. I've really been pushing back on the narrative that Abrams is not getting attention Beto is. If she announced for Senate or President tomorrow she would get a sh-t ton of press and donations. Maybe not as much as Beto but he got notoriety for running in a federal race against a nationally known polarizing politician. I love my state but nobody cares who the Governor of Georgia is, and no one knew who the hell Brian Kemp was. I'm all for calling out racial and gender biases, but the Beto/Abrams/Gillum saga is not it.

[SCNCmod]

Don't get me wrong- I'm definitely a fan of Abrams, & I think she does have an x-factor. I just wasn't sure why all of the candidate were calling her, meeting with her etc?

(the only time I was less than impressed with Abrams was her concession speech which I thought did a huge disservice to Abrams & the tone didn't represent who she is as a politician/ legislator, etc.  But she got back on track in the SOTU speech which set the much better tone).

But I also think that the "why is Beto getting more attention than Abrams or Gillum---> is so completely Bonkers.  It not because he is a white male as the media is portraying.  Its because he he has announced he is running for President and Abrams & Gillum has not.  (and there was more speculation about him running, because He does have 6 years in congress, where as Abrams & Gillum do not & Beto was in a much more Red State & Raised double the amount of the next closest Senate Candidate & had a record breaking campaign rally of Over 50,000 people.  Not to mention he does have the that Xfactor (notable since most politicians do not).

But the attention advantage is most appreciatively because he decided to enter the Presidential &  Primary & because of the x-factor quality.  And the reality is- Abrams is the other candidate involved in the 2018-2020 election cycle that also has that rare x-factor.  And if she jumped in the Primary, she would get just as much attention as Beto. 

The other odd thing regarding ppl complaining about Beto's media attention... over half of it is pointlessly negative (complains about not enough specifics yet, that he's a white male, etc). Luckily this will soon blow over as Biden inherited the Wrath (That was already a mild glimpse of what is to come on CNN early tonight- via a conversation regarding Biden & Anita Hill & were his comment today sincere, does it matter that he's never really address it before now, etc, etc.

[SCNCmod]

One other thought- I think Beto, Abrams, Pete all have an it-factor that comes from being younger and having that ability to connect better than most candidates. Granted each has a slightly different version (Beto's is more similar to Obama, Pete more similar to Bill Clinton & his ability to convey complex policy in a simplified manner, and Abrams being in between with a mix of both types). 

But although Gillum is a good politician and had some memorable debate moments- I've never really seen him in the same X-Factor category of Beto & Abrams.

[moderndayaristotle]

Donald Trump / Michael Pence - 330 EVS
Robert O Rourke , Stacey Abrams - 162 EVS
Larry Hogan , Bill Weld -  39 EVS


this will be the results

[Bumaye]

Donald Trump / Michael Pence - 330 EVS
Robert O Rourke , Stacey Abrams - 162 EVS
Larry Hogan , Bill Weld -  39 EVS


this will be the results

Post 1 and already delusional. Welcome to Atlas. No way Trump would win in clean sweep if there is a serious right wing third party ticket.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Calling Beto O'Rourke "Robert O'Rourke" is going to be the new version of calling the Democratic Party "the Democrat Party," isn't it? 

[Holmes]

Donald Trump / Michael Pence - 330 EVS
Robert O Rourke , Stacey Abrams - 162 EVS
Larry Hogan , Bill Weld -  39 EVS


this will be the results

lol

[Donerail]

Donald Trump / Michael Pence - 330 EVS
Robert O Rourke , Stacey Abrams - 162 EVS
Larry Hogan , Bill Weld -  39 EVS


this will be the results

"moderndayaristotle" more like nostradumbass lmao

[riceowl]

Calling Beto O'Rourke "Robert O'Rourke" is going to be the new version of calling the Democratic Party "the Democrat Party," isn't it? 

Yes. Rove has been doing it for a while now. Only he always uses the middle name too.

[GAProgressive]

Why have almost all of the primary candidates (other than Beto), contacted or had a meeting with Stacey Abrams?  And if all of the others have, wonder why Beto hasn't followed suit?

Per CNN- apparently most of the Senators have met with Abrams (probably around the same time when she was in Washington recently)... and Hickenlooper, Buttigieg, and maybe someone else have contacted her via a phone call?

Not that I really understand the need for Beto to call Abrams at this point considering he's in the middle of rolling out his campaign.  But I do think (especially given his likeability and seemingly ability to sort of win people over) Beto could benefit a good amount... from contacting a lot of the Dem Personalities , Politicians, etc ... as well as a many of the national media personalities/ players, etc.  This would help cut off much of the nonsense about Beto not yet having a 500 page policy dissertation written out yet.  It would be a lot harder to make these meaningless digs at Beto (or any candidate) after getting to know him via an in person meeting or an on-set interview, etc.  

Pete is really utilizing the valuable publicity that comes from becoming sort of a regular on the various cable news shows.  Hopefully, after Beto's kickoff rallies, he will also become a frequent guest on Cable News shows as well (this would put him in control of the Beto narrative on these show- in addition to gaining supporters from people watching).

Beto is currently scheduled to meet with Stacey during his first campaign stop in Georgia.