Beto O’Rourke 2020 campaign megathread

[jhkersting]

In y'alls opinion where is Beto's strengths and base?

[jhkersting]

In y'alls opinion where is Beto's strengths and base?

Is he actually the "frontrunner" for the hispanic voting bloc of the democratic primary?

[SCNCmod]

That makes 3 Democrats who have called out Netanyahu(the 3 being Beto, Sanders, and Buttigieg, BTW). Good for them.

Going to alienate the Jewish vote that way.

LOL what American Jews who aren't already voting Republican actually care about Netanyahu?

I've met more than my share of Liberal (Trump hating Jews) who also support Bibi. Not saying they'd vote Trump - because they won't - but they also might sit home if a candidate who has attacked Bibi and seems to be "anti-Israel" is the nominee.

Possibly- but it is hugely important to be able to denounce a President/Prime Minister without people trying to tie it to being against that Leaders country of citizens.  (and this comment is not directed at the quoted poster... but rather mainly at Republican who are purposely trying to stoke the idea of Dem Party being Anti-Israel.

After all almost every candidate calling out Bibi is also calling out MBS (and no one has ever brought up the idea those candidates may be Anti-Saudi/ Anti-Muslim/ etc). 

Also- most of the same candidates harshly criticize Putin, Maduro (without suggestions about being against the people of Venezuela), etc.  Not to mention they criticize our own President- and obviously not (seriously) called anti-American.

[SCNCmod]

In y'alls opinion where is Beto's strengths and base?

Is he actually the "frontrunner" for the hispanic voting bloc of the democratic primary?

I think Beto's "base" isn't really established yet- but his base will steadily grow over the next 5-6 month- similar to how it did in Texas as a result of his full force campaign schedule... combined with probably being the most (charasmatic/ likeability when people meet him/ etc) candidate in the race.

People mistakenly call Beto a "Media creation" - when the reality is Beto got almost no coverage until he started creating such a Huge Buzz on the ground, organically, in Texas.  And building this type of grass roots campaign (which only a few candidates can successfully achieve)... builds steadily until it reaches a sort of critical mass threshold, and then starts to propel itself a bit.

But his base will likely be: suburban white women,  a lot of under 30s,  (especially when the campaign begin to pick up steam), Older rural voters, and voters looking for an optimistic, more civil tone).  I do think Beto will end up being the presumptive favorite among Latinos (I think Castro will be out pretty early- and I actually think Castro will end up transferring his campaign over to the Texas Senate race).  If so- Beto is really the only SouthWestern candidate (especially since El Paso is so far west, only a couple of hours from AZ...so Beto's really more of a true SouthWestern candidate than a typical Texan from other parts of the state).

Best path for Beto:

IA: (Win or close 2nd to Bernie) Aim to be the Surge candidate by Building a slow but steady growing support level in Iowa the way he did in Texas (many voters in Iowa will flirt with different candidates but end up with Beto, who will probably all but have a 2nd home there by the end of summer).  And I think Beto's sort of "Beto Yard sign" type campaign that he had in Texas will work well in a crowd Primary in Iowa.  Supposedly by the end of the Senate campaign there were Beto yard signs everywhere.  Achieving that by the latter part of the year in Iowa- will go a long way to condition voters with interest in several candidates to settle on Beto (as the one on their list with the best shot to win the caucus).  Similar to how it gave some people in Texas the sort of strength in numbers to feel like it was ok to openly support Beto- A Dem (I saw several interviews with Suburban Republican Women talking about this in some fashion, during the Senate race).

Beto is a Better candidate and more x Factor than John Edwards... but John Edwards came close to pulling off the surge win in a crowded field Iowa in 2004 (this was before Edwards went off the deep end several years later- (which on a side note... precipitated after being Kerry's VP nom & then very likely to be the Dem Nom once they lost & all the new found attention going to his head, etc).  But in the 2004 Primary (Edwards 1st Run), he got a little buzz in polls then sank back down, and had to build support slow and steady winning Iowan over 1 by 1 as he met them on the ground.  (Dean & Gephardt & later Kerry were around the top the polls most of the race.... Then the last month Edwards really began to look like he had a chance at a surge type win.  Of course Kerry began to surge also & Edwards could overtake Kerry.  (Kerry: 37, Edwards: 32, Dean 18, Gephardt 10).  So Beto needs to move to the top 2 by mid Fall... a little earlier than Edwards did.  

It certainly doesn't hurt that Beto's Head Campaign Manager, worked for Edwards, Obama, and Justin Trudeau, all of which are younger candidates who have that sort of Political X Factor (to varying degrees). So she should know which strategies synergize best with a Beto type candidate/campaign.  

NH: Just do respectable Top 4/5 (Bernie will most likely win NH)

NV: Win NV- the 1st Southwestern Primary (after much time on the ground growing support there as well)

SC: Try to finish 3/4 (and wait to see if Biden or Kamala gets their first primary win in SC, whichever   doesn't win would likely drop out after not winning any of the first 4 states).

Texas & OK vote the next week I think, which is good timing for Beto- assuming he wins NV (and or Iowa)... B/c I do think candidates have to win 1 of the first 4 States to legitimately stay in the race.

[SCNCmod]

I just saw an article about O'Rourke going by "Beto" ...  https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/04/names-politics-beto-orourke/

The most interesting thing in the article...

Before "Ted", there was "Felito"

Rafael Edward Cruz went by "Felito" until he was Jr High. At which time he talked to his mom about wanting to go by something else b/c he was always picked on because his name rhymes with all of the corn chips Fritos, Cheetos, Doritos, Tostito, etc. So his mom told him he could choose whatever he wanted... and so he became "Ted."

Apparently he recounts this story in his autobiography... so I'm surprised it was not talked about more when he was trying to make a big deal about "Beto." (which the article also say- one reason his parents called him by the nickname for Robert... to avoid 2 immediately family members being called Robert since his grandfathers name is also Robert).

[SCNCmod]

A Beto fact I had never seen before (other than the childhood photo Beto & Jackson)...

His Father was the State Chairman for Texas for Jesse Jackson's 1984 & 1988 Presidential Campaigns.  (Jackson is from SC...and won the SC Primary both times he ran for President... so maybe he can help Beto out a bit in SC).  I think Jackson did campaign for Beto in his Senate race.

BTW- Jackson also won Primaries in MS, AL, LA, GA, VA, MI, PR ... and Vermont & Delaware of all place.  

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Beto has gotton back into the race with Joe Biden being sidelined due his sexual abuse charges. It would have been easier for Harris, to go against Biden and Sanders. Now, once again, Beto is back into race and can win the trifecta: IA, NH and SC and close out nomination. Without superdelegates, but with Union support

[SCNCmod]

Beto has gotton back into the race with Joe Biden being sidelined due his sexual abuse charges. It would have been easier for Harris, to go against Biden and Sanders. Now, once again, Beto is back into race and can win the trifecta: IA, NH and SC and close out nomination. Without superdelegates, but with Union support

I think Beto can win IA & NV (especially after 6 months campaigning in person on the ground there, once Beto gets him campaign in full swing). But I think Bernie will definitely win NH.  And Biden & Kamala will likely have to fight it out for SC (but a 3rd place finish in SC would be a huge positive for Beto)... But considering SC will likely be a must win for both Biden & Kamala ... and both will put a lot of time & resources in SC.

IMO- because I think Biden & Kamala will enter SC, after having not won IA-NH-NV ... I think its most likely that either Biden or Kamala will be out after SC (probably Biden).  At which time Beto will have a decent shot at going after the drop-out-candidate's supports.  B/c it would then be Bernie-Beto-Biden (and Beto would have a good shot at AA's in the South) ... or Bernie-Beto-Kamala (at which time Beto would have a good shot at Biden's voters).

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/jimmorrill/status/1116080256362921985

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/jimmorrill/status/1116080256362921985

Is he stopping in Raleigh?

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/patrickmwilson/status/1116438328239435776

A member of O'Rourke's campaign says the declared candidate will host meet and greets, town halls and other events in Norfolk, Hampton, Williamsburg, Henrico, Charlottesville, Fredericksburg, Alexandria, as well as Prince William and Fairfax counties.

https://www.wavy.com/news/local-news/presidential-candidate-beto-o-rourke-to-campaign-in-hampton-roads-next-week/1918962146

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Beto can benefit from Tim Ryan's entry into race, with the Biden scandal going on. Connect with those WWC voters, Hilary lost

[Panhandle Progressive]

Beto can benefit from Tim Ryan's entry into race, with the Biden scandal going on. Connect with those WWC voters, Hilary lost

Here's how I think about it. Bernie had the entire left-wing to himself in 2016 and couldn't beat Hillary. This time around most of the Dems are running within this wing of the party, therefore Bernie and the other progressives are all competing for the same voters. Whoever becomes the centrist/moderate standout within the Dem party (hopefully Beto) should be able to unite former Hillary supporters. The left-wing appears to be too fractured to coalesce behind a single candidate.

[Heebie Jeebie]

Beto can benefit from Tim Ryan's entry into race, with the Biden scandal going on. Connect with those WWC voters, Hilary lost

Here's how I think about it. Bernie had the entire left-wing to himself in 2016 and couldn't beat Hillary. This time around most of the Dems are running within this wing of the party, therefore Bernie and the other progressives are all competing for the same voters. Whoever becomes the centrist/moderate standout within the Dem party (hopefully Beto) should be able to unite former Hillary supporters. The left-wing appears to be too fractured to coalesce behind a single candidate.

I think that's mostly right.  Certainly Sanders is competing for many of the same voters that Warren, Harris, and a few lesser-thans like Gillibrand are competing for.  And you're right, even when Sanders had the left-wing to himself he could't beat Clinton's combination of moderate and minority supporters.  But whoever ends up being the centrist/moderate frontrunner is going to face competition for that wing's support too--Klobuchar, Castro, Booker, etc.  I think the real question is, which set of rivals has more staying power?  Sanders, Warren, Harris, Gillibrand?  Or Beto, Biden, Klobuchar, Castro, Booker?  Whoever can consolidate their wing's support first is going to have momentum and some advantage.

[Barack Oganja]

Beto can benefit from Tim Ryan's entry into race, with the Biden scandal going on. Connect with those WWC voters, Hilary lost

Tim Ryan will have absolutely no effect on this race lol

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/BetoORourke/status/1117081038994513920

[Rookie Yinzer]

The purist haters will still say this wasn’t enough:

https://twitter.com/DJJudd/status/1117082915748438016

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

The purist haters will still say this wasn’t enough:

https://twitter.com/DJJudd/status/1117082915748438016

Strawman much?
Most leftist's problem with Beto is him moving to the right on healthcare and not supporting free college and Bernie's policies. Not things like this.

[GoTfan]

The purist haters will still say this wasn’t enough:

https://twitter.com/DJJudd/status/1117082915748438016

That is not what he was being criticised for and to pretend otherwise does not reflect well.

[SCNCmod]

In the latest Emerson Head-to-Head polls...

Beto is one of the only 3 Dems that Beat Trump (along with Biden & Bernie). 

Beto is also now #3 in the RealClearPolitics average.  Both are good signs that Beto's support on the ground is continuing to slowly build (in a manner similar to his Texas campaign) ... despite Cable News' somewhat negative coverage of his campaign thus far (which I expect to chance once he begins to do more national media interviews, media appearances, etc).

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1117923530430087168

[SCNCmod]

When will Beto start a Media Offensive?

If Beto was on the various cable news & Media shows (Morning Joe, CNN New Day, Maddow, Hardball, Cuomo, The View, Late Night Shows, CNN Town Halls, MSNBC Town Halls, etc, etc) as much as Buttigieg .... He would easily be above 15% right now.

Because whether we like it or not, Presidential elections are now... part reality show- and allowing voters to get to know you on a personal level is how you seperate yourself from the crowd.  Especially if you are a candidate like Beto- who is arguably one of (if not the) most charasmatic, X-Factor, younger, naturally likeable, etc, candidates in the field.

Hopefully at some point in the not to distant future Beto will hit the Media circuit in a big way.  Its important to meet people on the ground... But the US is a lot bigger than the state of Texas- & Beto needs to use these media shows to reach millions of people he will never get the chance to meet in person on the campaign trail.  Reaching these millions of viewers will also give him a boost in the polls... which is usually a self propelling event (a rise in polls from cable news viewers, spurs more support from people simply seeing the poll numbers rise).

Such a media strategy does not work for all candidates (or maybe even most candidates).  But it will absolutely work for X-Factor candidates like Beto... who's strength is in large part charisma & natural Likeability.

Granted- its probably good not to pursue such a strategy too early (Pete may be making his jump a little too early)... But at the same time, you definitely do not want to wait too late either.  Hopefully Beto will hit the timing perfectly (A good strategy could be to go hard on media shows the very end of April- beginning of May .... then stick mainly to the campaign trail over the summer ... and start to Hit the Media shows hard again around the End of August.  Or maybe do what Trump did in 2016 and just become a permanent presence on the News shows from here on out!)

[SCNCmod]

The Latest RealClearPolitics National Average:
1) Biden.... 31%
2) Bernie..... 21%
3) Beto......8.3%
4) Kamala....7.8%
5) Warren........5.7%
6) Buttigieg........4.7%

If anyone is going to surge... Beto is in as good a position as anyone.  Also- If Dems end up deciding they do not want to nominate someone approaching 80, Beto is also in a good position as any.  

8.3% isn't bad, especially considering he has done practically no cable news/ media shows & no CNN/ MSNBC town halls as of yet (other than the Axe Files this past Saturday Night... which I assume doesn't get a huge viewership)

Now Beto needs to hit the Media appearance hard to get national poll numbers climbing ... and basically live in the 4 early states.

[henster]

When will Beto start a Media Offensive?

If Beto was on the various cable news & Media shows (Morning Joe, CNN New Day, Maddow, Hardball, Cuomo, The View, Late Night Shows, CNN Town Halls, MSNBC Town Halls, etc, etc) as much as Buttigieg .... He would easily be above 15% right now.

Because whether we like it or not, Presidential elections are now... part reality show- and allowing voters to get to know you on a personal level is how you seperate yourself from the crowd.  Especially if you are a candidate like Beto- who is arguably one of (if not the) most charasmatic, X-Factor, younger, naturally likeable, etc, candidates in the field.

Hopefully at some point in the not to distant future Beto will hit the Media circuit in a big way.  Its important to meet people on the ground... But the US is a lot bigger than the state of Texas- & Beto needs to use these media shows to reach millions of people he will never get the chance to meet in person on the campaign trail.  Reaching these millions of viewers will also give him a boost in the polls... which is usually a self propelling event (a rise in polls from cable news viewers, spurs more support from people simply seeing the poll numbers rise).

Such a media strategy does not work for all candidates (or maybe even most candidates).  But it will absolutely work for X-Factor candidates like Beto... who's strength is in large part charisma & natural Likeability.

Granted- its probably good not to pursue such a strategy too early (Pete may be making his jump a little too early)... But at the same time, you definitely do not want to wait too late either.  Hopefully Beto will hit the timing perfectly (A good strategy could be to go hard on media shows the very end of April- beginning of May .... then stick mainly to the campaign trail over the summer ... and start to Hit the Media shows hard again around the End of August.  Or maybe do what Trump did in 2016 and just become a permanent presence on the News shows from here on out!)

If/when his fundraising starts to lag he will do a media blitz most likely. Should be less of a necessity for candidates like Beto with decently high name ID so he has the luxury to wait.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

$300k of Beto's money from the first 24 hours was general election money from fat cat donors giving $5600 each, so he didn't beat Bernie for primary money raised.

But the new federal disclosures show that Mr. O’Rourke relied upon a bit of accounting finesse to score that headline: Nearly $300,000 of his first-day haul was actually general-election funds raised above the limit that he can spend in the primary contest.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/16/us/politics/democrats-2020-fundraising.html