Joe Biden 2020 campaign megathread

[UWS]

Biden needs to run an absolutely flawless campaign against candidates who are going to go for the jugular, something I don't think is likely. The attacks from the Sanders camp alone will probably put a dent in his already precarious front runner status. This primary is going to be long and bloody, something Biden will struggle with.

This is as successful as it did with Hillary Clinton : it didn’t stop her from winning the nomination.

[UWS]

Inb4 his poll numbers collapse after the debates.

Actually, Biden is a terrific debater. He avoided gaffes during his vice-presidential debates in 2008 and 2012. And during the 2012 VP debate, Paul Ryan even sometimes looked intimidated. The moreover that Biden reprised the « Senator you’re no Jack Kennedy » line with his « Oh now you’re Jack Kennedy » which was a remarkable punch.

[UWS]

His path to the nomination would be to highlight his large experience and his ability to attract working-class voters like he did in 2008 and 2012 for Obama.

I think he will absolutely need to win the Iowa Democratic caucuses because since 2000, the winner of the Iowa Democratic caucuses has always went on to become the eventual nominee. He would also need both Sanders and Warren to stay in the race and would need Warren to improve her standing in the polls, including in New Hampshire, which would help Biden to win the New Hampshire primary as well as other New England states like Massachusetts on Super Tuesday thanks to a divide of Sanders’ socialist base (just like Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee divided the social conservative wing in favor of John McCain in 2008 and like Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum divided that same electorate in favor of Romney in 2012). As the polls indicate, he is ahead among African-Americans, which would help him to win the South Carolina primary, the moreover that both Harris and Booker will likely be still in the race by then. I think Biden will have a decent shot in the following Super Tuesday states : Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina, Virginia. Beto O’Rourke could have a certain boost in the polls after he announces but due to his poor standing in the national polls (6 %) and if he gets at just the early 10s or stumbles or gets his Texas favorite son status challenged by Julian Castro, I guess that Biden could win the Texas Democratic primary. And later, I think he would also win Illinois as it is Obama’s home state. Biden would need to make sure that by early April or mid-April it will be a two-way race between him and Sanders in order not to divide his moderate/mainstream base ahead of the primaries in New York and Pennsylvania. He could win New York by reminding local primary voters that it was under his watch as Vice-President that Bin Laden has been killed 10 years after 9/11. A week later, he will likely win Pennsylvania (the state where he was born), Maryland and his home state of Delaware. He may or may not have won enough delegates by them but I think he will have the nomination guaranteed to him by late April 2020.

[UWS]

Joe Biden reportedly considering 2020 presidential campaign headquarters HQ in Philadelphia

http://fortune.com/2019/03/20/joe-biden-2020-philly/

[UWS]

Saving his ass? Looking forward to Biden steamrolling the Democratic establishment.

Biden is the democratic establishment lmao

Look, it’s not because a candidate is an establishment candidate thathe/she is the worst candidate to run : in 1988 George H. W. Bush was the establishment candidate and won. In 2000, George W. Bush was the establishment favorite and won.

[UWS]

I don't think this will hurt Biden much at all. What will hurt him is the first debate, He will be attacked for everything from everyone. He will gaffe, and will have to defend an awful senate record. Beto or Kamala will begin to pick off his support.

I think Sanders too will be a top target during the first debate, especially by either Warren or O’Rourke.

But usually, the first debates of a primary cycle are rather civil, though with rare attacks between some candidates, while as the debates go on it gets nastier and nastier.

[UWS]

Even Nancy Pelosi said that these allegations are not disqualifying.

[UWS]

Joe, don't run.  You missed the boat in 2016, just as Chris Christie missed his in 2012.  The ship has sailed.  Just move on. 

In all fairness, he wouldn't have won in 2016 either. Clinton was not beatable in that primary.

Warren could have beaten her.

One of the reasons why Clinton somewhat wasn't beatable in the primaries was because her campaign contacted with the Democratic National Committee to derail Sanders' primary campaign, which is cheating.

[UWS]

Joe, don't run.  You missed the boat in 2016, just as Chris Christie missed his in 2012.  The ship has sailed.  Just move on. 

In all fairness, he wouldn't have won in 2016 either. Clinton was not beatable in that primary.

Warren could have beaten her.

One of the reasons why Clinton somewhat wasn't beatable in the primaries was because her campaign contacted with the Democratic National Committee to derail Sanders' primary campaign, which is cheating.

LOL, that's nonsense. The Clinton campaign never truly feared losing to Sanders. The only fear they had were alienating Sanders' supporters which is why Clinton basically never attacked Sanders.

Actually she attacked Sanders on issues like immigration, on Israel, gun issues.

[UWS]

Biden still isn't officially in, right?

Correct, he hasn't officially announced his candidacy yet.

Somewhere I recently read that he intends to official announce by the end of this month (April).

Yep, around Easter,  more precisely.

[UWS]

I think Obama is trying to stay above the jockeying until a nominee is chosen in milwaukee. He's been mentioning unity, etc, and trying to push one candidate over another would run counter to what he's suggested. In addition, he has two folks from his administration running (actually technically only one since Joe still isn't officially in the race and Castro is). Anyway, as much as I dislike Joe as a candidate, I don't take Obama's lack of backing at this point as anything. The field is too wide and he has to stay above the fray.

He's also gotten a fair bit of lambasting for coming out against Trump and doing campaigning for the midterms, so he might be trying to take it slow.

!!!

The fact that Mondale endorsed so early is wild.

Don't expect Carter, Clinton, or Obama to endorse till the very end.

Well, a former VP ain't exactly a former President (hell, Gore endorsed Dean in '04, for example), plus Mondale endorsed Amy, so it's more of a home-state favorite son endorsement than anything else.

Gore endorsing Dean in ‘04 actually had arguably negative effects, as it cemented Dean as the front runner and began Gephardt’s sniping at him that led to his ultimate loss in Iowa. So Obama and Clinton might also try to avoid having unintended negative effects.

Carter, on the other hand, likes to buck conventional wisdom. I wouldn’t be surprised if he endorses one of the more liberal candidates before the nomination is sewn up. He did vote for Bernie in 2016 after all.

True but, crucially, he didn't endorse him, though. Hell, It was nearly a year into Trump's presidency when he revealed that he'd voted for Bernie lol

So he just wanted to make his support to Sanders secret.

[UWS]

Biden raised $6.3 million on day 1. More than any other candidate.

How many donors?

About 97K.

So he raised 6 million dollars off less than 100,000 people?

Methinks big money has their candidate.

It was obvious from the beginning that Biden is going to be the candidate of special interests a lot like Hillary Clinton was in the 2016 primaries.

[UWS]

Its pretty easy to see why democrats like Biden. He's a big dollop of generic with just a hint of likability. After almost 4 years of Trump, the average democrat craves anything resembling normalcy. And yes, Biden's voting record and behavior towards Anita Hill will probably hurt him in the primary. But no one is going to care come the general when he's facing Trump. As long as Biden doesn't have some reoccurring scandal(like Hillary's emails), he'll be fine.

Hillary's emails were a completely manufactured bullshet "scandal," and there's no reason to assume any Democrat, including Biden, would be spared similar treatment.  Republicans have a huge strategic advantage in shaping the news.

Hilary's emails were not the sole reason why she lost. She complèted 2 terms as Senator from NY, with little to no competetion. Also, white females were still frustrated due to Bill's indecretions with women.
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Biden had personal indescretions, not ro degree of Bill Clinton.

It was also because she has consistently lied to the families of the victims of the terrorist attack in Benghazi of September 2012 when she was Secretary of State about the purpose of the attack, telling them that it was because of a video while she knew that this was because of a terrorist attack. On this issue, she even replied to Congress the following infamous phrase : « What difference at this point does it make? », which further made it clear that she was not honest and trustworthy to keep America safe.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8INIH0JfNA8