Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

It's weird watching an election where we all basically know who is going to win the vote count but we have to intensely watch the margin to try to figure out how likely and widely-backed the coup attempt is going to be.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Roughly half of counted votes come from these 5 districts:

Rio Grande do Sul
Amazonas
DF
Parana
Rio de Janeiro

Not sure how this compares to actual expected vote share.

Well, only two of those are in the top five states for population, and DF and Amazonas aren't even in the top 10.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I thought the vote count will go a lot faster than this.  It is already almost an hour after the polls closed.

And its very concerning Bolsonaro is leading in Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo. Id have thought they'd be going to Lula. I don't think hes going to win the first round.

Those states both went to Bolsonaro with over 60% of the vote in the 2018 election.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I thought the vote count will go a lot faster than this.  It is already almost an hour after the polls closed.

And its very concerning Bolsonaro is leading in Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo. Id have thought they'd be going to Lula. I don't think hes going to win the first round.

Those states both went to Bolsonaro with over 60% of the vote in the 2018 election.

in first or second round?

Second round, but regardless, they are areas where you should expect Bolsonaro to win even with a significant shift from 2018.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I thought the vote count will go a lot faster than this.  It is already almost an hour after the polls closed.

And its very concerning Bolsonaro is leading in Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo. Id have thought they'd be going to Lula. I don't think hes going to win the first round.

Those states both went to Bolsonaro with over 60% of the vote in the 2018 election.

Do we know which votes are in from the favellas versus wealthier parts of those states (Which I would assume to be much more heavily Bolsonaro vs the favellas much more strongly Lulu)?

I'm just doing the bare minimum of looking at Wikipedia maps yall, I don't have that level of detailed information.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

This is one time where I hate having to say "I told you so"...but I told you so. Bolsonaro is doing much better than expected, and he might actually win, as horrifying as that prospect is for Brazil and the world.

You are utterly insufferable.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

One would think USAmerican users would be more familiar with the concept of "mirages"

If I had a nickel for every time a revered elder statesman who had to make a political comeback in order to take down a fascist incumbent after a tragedy prevented them from running in the last election had to watch that fascist incumbent start out with a lead that's destined to shrink & disappear over time, I'd have 2 nickels, which isn't a lot, but it's weird that it's happened twice.

Excellent choice of meme.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

No chance of Lula winning in the first round?

I definitely wouldn't bet on it, but we don't know how much more heavily the remaining vote is for Lula relative to what has come before it, so technically not a certainty.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

The updates have been getting a little better for Lula; still think decently good chance he's above 48.

I'd probably bet on something like 48.5, if I had to put a number on it.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Lula has taken the lead in Amazonas

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

If I did the math right, Lula has the most votes directly casted for him than any other human in history right? This is his sixth president election stretching to 1989

Not so fun fact, runner up is Trump with 136 million votes between 2016 and 2020. Obama is third at 134 million

Putin has over 190 million in his four elections, depending on how much fraud you assume to be going on there.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Man, polling is a joke. A joke.

We are looking at a *8 point* polling miss in the Brazilian election

To be fair Globe Elections UN final poll had a 4.2% lead for Lula which matches his current lead.  Perhaps Globe Elections UN is the Trafalgar of Brazil?

Someone remind me to go into the Israeli election thread in a month and go "Holy crap polling is so good" when the polls end up being within 1 seat of the final margin.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Lula has now crossed 48%.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Is 48.5% possible? If so, I'll be completely satisfied with tonights results and consider it a victory worth celebration.

Probably right around there, 48.4% or so if consistent with the last few batches that have come in.

Some of the precincts should be 70-80% Lula based on how they voted in 2018.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Can someone tell me where the votes for the other candidates are most likely to go? Bolsonaro being at 45% or going into the runoff just short of 50% are quite different results.

Lula should definitely get most of the Gomes/PDT vote, Tebet/MDB vote might split roughly in half? Bolsonaro probably picks up the overwhelming majority of the União vote and presumably most of NOVO as well.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but as things stand it seems to me that Lula is likely to take the large majority of Ciro Gomes supporters and probably a handful / decent majority of Simone Tebet supporters who seem like uncontraversial social liberals.

Absolutely nothing should be taken for granted, obviously... But is there really any imaginable scenario where Bolosnaro would surge to win the second round? Isn't his turnout likely tapped out with his supporters trying to overwhelm the odds in the first round, whereas Lula supporters might have taken his win for granted and will come out in the second round?

What are the chances Lula actually improves in the second round by a few points and possibly even aims for 59 or dare I say 60 percent? If that is ultimately the case I think those of us on the Left will be able to look back and laugh at some of the trepidation and anxiety-ridden takes here.

Based on what we're seeing tonight, I would not bet on Lula at 59%, but something like 55% is feasible.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

The updates have been getting a little better for Lula; still think decently good chance he's above 48.

I'd probably bet on something like 48.5, if I had to put a number on it.

I'm not gonna lie, I'm feeling pretty good about how this turned out given that I basically just looked at the shift that occurred from when ~50% of the vote was in to when 70% of the vote was in, looked at a map of what was still out, and went "Yeah I can probably just project that same shift forward"

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I have been busy all afternoon and early evening and haven't been available to watch this nearly as closely as the first round, but very glad and relieved to see Lula projected to win the runoff. Hoping there is enough internal support within the military and other key sectors of the government to prevent a self-coup by Bolsonaro.