Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[Lourdes]

Lula just took the lead!

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

I feel bummed, I don't know, it seems that Lula won't make it in the first round, I was really hoping so.

"The arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends towards justice."

Don't give them the satisfaction, Lula will by all accounts be President of the worlds 4th largest democracy come 2023. Pessimism is perhaps the most powerful tool of the elite to keep people disengaged and disorganized and there's way too much at stake in our world today to let it win.

[Mike88]

Lula surges ahead. 45.7% vs 45.5%. 70% counted.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

70.00% Reporting

LULA- 37,265,102 (45.74%)
BOLSONARO- 37,074,784 (45.51%)





1.5% in Amazonas with 75% in...

[Ron DeSantis enthusiast]

Sounds like the runoff is going to be very close… some type of Peru 2021 election

[rc18]

No chance of Lula winning in the first round?

Given he has hoovered up the left vote, relative to 2018, I don't think the percentages in the Northeast are high enough.

[jaymichaud]

I guess it’s Round 2 then?

[If my soul was made of stone]

Sounds like the runoff is going to be very close… some type of Peru 2021 election

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

No chance of Lula winning in the first round?

I definitely wouldn't bet on it, but we don't know how much more heavily the remaining vote is for Lula relative to what has come before it, so technically not a certainty.

[2952-0-0]

Datafolha is projecting a runoff between the two candidates.
https://twitter.com/tracklist/status/1576709903867338752?t=dppT8r9LTZK7gxZaFkLzR...

[Mike88]

Yep, it was just announced on Globo.

[jaymichaud]

A PT supporting friend who lives in Brazil said she’s shocked at how much Bolsonaro overperformed, she genuinely thought he’d be in the 30s, is that the general mood there?

I personally was shocked at the diaspora vote, considering how Pro-Bolsonaro they were in 2018. Seems only Japan voted for Bolsonaro in big numbers this time.

[jaichind]

Sounds like the runoff is going to be very close… some type of Peru 2021 election

I am sure the first polls will have Lula ahead by 10.  It could be that Bolsonaro can outperform polls again and get pretty close.  I am skeptical Bolsonaro can get it to Peru 2021 close.

[Sestak]

The updates have been getting a little better for Lula; still think decently good chance he's above 48.

[Mike88]

I heard something, a few days ago, on a TV program in Portugal, a Brazilian pundit saying that polls should be taken with a grain of salt because there was a "data blackout" due to the fact that the 2020 census didn't happened and there was no info on the demographics of the country. Polling companies had to use their own projections of how the country actually looks like, and maybe they were considerably off.

Also, history is made: PSDB has been booted out from São Paulo's governorship.

[Frodo]

I heard something, a few days ago, on a TV program in Portugal, a Brazilian pundit saying that polls should be taken with a grain of salt because there was a "data blackout" due to the fact that the 2020 census didn't happen and there was no info on the demographics of the country. Polling companies had to use their own projections of how the country actually looks like, and maybe they were considerably off.

Was the COVID pandemic the reason why the 2020 census didn't happen?  

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

The updates have been getting a little better for Lula; still think decently good chance he's above 48.

I'd probably bet on something like 48.5, if I had to put a number on it.

[Pres Mike]

When’s the next update?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

79.45% Reporting

LULA- 43,086,929 (46.29%%)
BOLSONARO- 41,888,346 (45.01%)

[MR DARK BRANDON]

70.00% Reporting

LULA- 37,265,102 (45.74%)
BOLSONARO- 37,074,784 (45.51%)





1.5% in Amazonas with 75% in...

Dark Lula Rises

[Mike88]

I heard something, a few days ago, on a TV program in Portugal, a Brazilian pundit saying that polls should be taken with a grain of salt because there was a "data blackout" due to the fact that the 2020 census didn't happen and there was no info on the demographics of the country. Polling companies had to use their own projections of how the country actually looks like, and maybe they were considerably off.

Was the COVID pandemic the reason why the 2020 census didn't happen?  

To be honest, that may have been the excuse, but it was, most certainly, incompetence of the federal government in giving the resources and managing the logistics. Portugal, the UK, the US, did their Census normally, however there was issues in the US.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I see that a lot of people posting in this thread have never followed a Brazilian election before.

[Pivaru]

Sergio Moro has just been elected senator in Paraná, unseating his former ally Álvaro Dias and overperforming all the polls.

[brucejoel99]

Sergio Moro has just been elected senator in Paraná, unseating his former ally Álvaro Dias and overperforming all the polls.

Jeff Sessions: "What's his secret?"

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Well, I'm not surprised that Bolsonaro has overperformed the polls. It's Brazil after all.

The Bolsonaro Cult is strong.