2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Fox already posted 7 Rs on GCB there is no brutal than that

CNN will show possibly Republicans with 8-9 Point lead.

Cut it out, the inerrant pollster king YouGov has spoken and they say it’s D+6

I am not looking just at Polls BUT the Turnout Numbers from Ohio are a full-blown disaster for Democrats according to NBC's Chuck Todd.

Republicans in the Governor Race got 1,070,000 while Democrats barely got 500K.

I mean, that happens when the Republican Senate primary is heavily contested and the Democratic primary isn't.

Not saying that there isn't going to be a bloodbath electorally in Ohio, that state has been moving more and more to the right every year and we should probably expect things to be bad there, but these primary turnout numbers aren't the reason why we should expect that.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

New NBC poll has GCB tied at 46-46

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/support-abortion-rights-hits-new-high-midterm-outlook-stays-mostly-unc-rcna28869

Roe is the only thing that can save Dems, Biden's approval is trash but a lot of younger people who disapprove are repelled by the idea of SCOTUS removing a constitutional right. If Dems can keep the GCB close then perhaps the GOP will lose a bunch of swing state races due to bad candidates.

Anecdotal evidence is notoriously not worth much, but I will say that I have a fair number of younger, left-wing friends who simultaneously think the Democratic party leadership (both Biden and the Congress) is woefully out of touch with the problems they face, and who also would never vote for the Republican party under any circumstances. Finding a way to turn out those sorts of young voters - edit: while also not alienating other persuadable voters - is going to be very important for any Dem who wants to hold on in a difficult national electoral environment.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

i will not take the hopium i will not take the hopium i will no-

I'm not putting much meaning in it until we are primarily getting likely voter polls - and maybe not even then, given some of the large misses in 2020 - but it is nice to see things at least moving in the right direction.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

The way that there are never any articles about the GOP's total collapse with 18-29 year olds/Zoomers/Millennials is stunning. It's almost like they completely get away with not even bothering to try to appeal to that age group.

It's not just that they don't try to appeal to young people, a fair number of Republican candidates actively campaign on their disdain for younger Americans.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

https://mobile.twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1562475059574235138
!

Interesting.  Based on some of the hints Elliott has been dropping on Twitter, I was assuming their model was going to be quite bearish on D chances.  Apparently I assumed poorly.

Still a pretty important caveat here that he's saying the *special election results* are consistent with Dems being about 50/50 chances of keeping the House, not necessarily that that is what the model is showing *in general*

That being said, it's a sign that gives some hope.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Wow! From the Gold Standard Big Village poll too!
https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1563330993963933698?s=21&t=FOvwB5Z...

The combination of Dobbs backlash, dropping gas prices, and breaking through the stagnation to make significant public policy changes that help people in clear and tangible ways seems to be having a major effect.

Keep it up.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Politico/Morning Consult steady at D+5 this week, 47-42

https://assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2022/08/31061407/2208180_crosstabs_POLITICO_RVs_v1_08-31-22_SH.pdf

Who do you trust more to handle each of the following issues?

National Security: R+11
Inflation: R+10
Economy: R+10
Immigration: R+6
Jobs: R+4
Guns: D+5
Energy: D+6
Education: D+9
Voting rights: D+11
COVID: D+13
Healthcare: D+15
Medicare and SS: D+15
Environment: D+22
Climate change: D+25

It is insane that people trust Republicans more on national security after the Trump documents scandal. Jobs and the economy too, given the records of the past several Republican and Democratic presidents.

The average American equates "national security" with "bombing foreigners" so I can believe it.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

https://twitter.com/amyewalter/status/1567170117108211713

This midterm is looking much more like a choice election rather than the referendum that Republicans wanted it to be, which is almost certainly attributable to both the Supreme Court's actions and to Trump's never-ending insistence to continue hijacking our politics.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

OnMessage (R) / Senate Opportunity Fund

GCB R+2, 46-44

They had this at R+4 (47-43) in their last poll in mid-August

More movement towards Dems

https://senopportunity.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/2022-09-31-PUBLIC-DECK-National-SOF.pdf

And Biden's approval is at 48/48

👀

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Three millions of dollars being poured into Ohio in a race that Vance was never in any serious risk of losing is stunning.

Apparently the SLF has a different evaluation of the race than you do.

Internal polling is most of the time less accurate than public polling. Mitch McConnell does not have much more useful intel on this race than we do.

In the case of Ohio, Iowa, Colorado, and other former swing states that have trended quickly, he might be tethered to a time when Ohio was close to the national environment, not the current reality when it's significantly to the right of it. As it stands, Vance will probably win from partisans coming home in the last few months. But McConnell might think that wouldn't be a factor if he doesn't hold Ohio as a strong lean-R state at worst.

There are also competitive House races in Ohio, so getting more R messaging out would help in the Republican goal of taking at least one chamber, even if they don't need it for holding the Senate race.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Yahoo/YouGov: D+5 (45/40) among RV, D+3 (48/45) among those who "definitely will vote".

https://news.yahoo.com/poll-democrats-lead-republicans-among-those-who-say-theyll-definitely-vote-in-midterms-221434935.html

If Dems were to win by three nationally, that's around where I think they would be slightly favored to hold the House. Not betting that will happen yet, but something to watch.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1568339174041739264

30% undecided?

Throw this entire poll into an incinerator.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Dems now +1.2 (44.9-43.7) on 538 Average, highest since early November 2021. 44.9% is the highest the Democrats have been at since early October 2021, while the Republicans' 43.7% is the lowest it's been since late January 2022.

If you don't assume that polls are underestimating Republicans nationwide, there is a real chance Democrats retain the House (IF the polls do not swing against them in the final weeks). Wow.

The polls are probably underestimating Republican support, but it's not like the polls have gotten less accurate in the past year, so there is still an obvious shift towards the Dems.

I mean, in November 2021 the GCB was D+1 and the actual election outcomes up and down the ballot corresponded to R+7.

This isn't wrong, but also the special election outcomes post-Dobbs have all been more in line with a more Democratic environment than what the GCB is suggesting. I'm not saying the actual result will be in line with those special elections, on the contrary I think this is shaping up to be a close to neutral year nationally, but I am saying it probably makes more sense to look at the recent elections than it does to look at elections from a year ago.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

538 now predicts the chances of the Rs winning outright and the Ds winning outright are the same.

It feels weird as hell to be more cautious on Democratic chances than 538's model, but I guess that's where I am.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

If there were just less undecideds in these polls.

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1570051543604383744

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

If there were just less undecideds in these polls.

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1570051543604383744

Is there movement?

"Fewer" undecideds, not "less" undecideds. Grammar

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I believe Rasmussen just came out with 42-43 R, which sounds really good for Republicans but their last poll was 42-46 R.

That is very much consistent with the hypothesis that after Dobbs, there are more shy GOP voters now. That's what I happen to believe.

That ...does not line up with the reality of the special elections.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Democrats are running even in a poll that shows them down 20 points on the economy and your conclusion is they've overplayed their hand on abortion

Many Voters will be ticked off E-Day Voters especially if they hear 24/7 Abortion, Abortion, Abortion.

This is true if by "many voters" you mean "Republicans who were always going to vote Republican anyway"

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Some think we are gonna lose Sir Woodbury 245 seats that ship has sailed it's gonna be a 53/47 Sen WI, PA and OH in 2010 we lost the H and secured 53/47 NC, FL, IA, IN are purely wave insurance

I thought McMillan was gonna win but lol that's UT there are competeting polls in WI and OH showing Johnson and Vance AHEAD and Barnes and Ryan ahead while Kelly and Fetterman remain fav

That's why we need OH in case WARNOCK goes to a Runoff

Oh I can't wait to hear the explanation of this one

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1572223060706758659

Not a poll itself, but some insight into nonresponse issues in the 2020 polling and some indication that we are not seeing nearly the same level of that problem this cycle

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Am I right that basically every poll shows the Democrats tied or leading the generic ballot at this point? I think the only ones that do not are fake polls run by far-right Republicans (Rasmussen, Trafalgar, etc). And yet the consensus continues to be that Republicans are favored? Everyone is just assuming there will be a huge polling miss (there was not in 2018) or a sudden shift to the GOP (Labor Day was over two weeks ago and still no sign of this at all).

Well, even a small polling miss would probably be enough for Republicans to take control given how extraordinarily narrow the Democratic majority currently is - Republicans can win a majority while losing the national popular vote for the House due to gerrymandering and whatnot. That being said, the longer things go on with a Dem lead in the generic ballot polling, and the wider that lead gets, the more plausible it starts to look for Dems to hold on in the House.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1572956918020460544?s=46&t=ugu0w2e...

Yeah that's not happening.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Cygnal (R) has GCB tied, 47-47

same as their last poll in August

https://www.cygn.al/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/September-Cygnal-National-Deck.pdf

Slide 13: "Trump image is now positive; fostered by double-digit positive swings among college-educated and upper-income voters".  They have Trump at 48.8% favorable, 48.7% unfavorable.  I'm just a wee bit inclined to doubt this.

That's good news for Dems then, right? Tied in a clear R NUT push poll?

It's certainly not bad news

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Ann Selzer has D+4 nationally


Selzer & Co./Grinnell College poll

Generic Ballot (National)

Dem 46%
Rep 42%

9/20-9/25
739 LV

https://www.grinnell.edu/poll/2022-midterms

Muahahahaha

Is this really that big of deal?

One of the best pollsters in the country, even in 2016 and 2020. It's not a guarantee that this will be the final margin, but it's unquestionably an encouraging sign.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I can already feel this damn election taking a toll on my mental health.

Lovely. Exactly what I needed.