2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[ProgressiveModerate]

Glad they're realizing that much hyped Yesli Vega is now a flop candidate.

They should start more moves like PA-7, VA-2, NJ-7 to tossup.

Kean and Kiggans will probably still win, but I agree those districts are more like a tossup. It’s just hard to see Kean being a sizable favorite in a Biden+5 seat when Republicans are losing Trump+10 or Biden+1 seats.

Eh, I think Luria will still pull it out. Luria has much more $, and has a lot more visibility now due to the 1/6 panel. Kiggans seems like another hyped candidate like Vega that hasn't really borne out as much as people said they would.

A lot are saying Kean (and Steel, others for that matter) because they outran the top of the ticket in 2020. But was 1/6 and Dobbs the final straw for these ancestral R voters? Judging by the special elections in Lincoln, Rochester and NY-19, the answer might just be yes. The Dem in MN-1 outran Tina Smith by 8% and Biden by 6% in Olmsted. NJ-7 is 51% college and this group is VERY angry. Not to mention Malinowski already represents all of Kean's state senate seat so he isn't flying in with no name recognition.

Steele I think is a special case of her running against a white opponent in 2020 allowing her to do very well with the Asian vote, specifically in Garden Grove (which also saw a heavy swing to Trump). A least Dems will be running an Asian candidate against her in 2022, so it'll be interesting if she still does well with the Asian vote and also if Trump's performance in the new district was somewhat of a fluke (Clinton + 13 --> Biden + 5, almost entirely due to heavily Vietnamese Garden Grove area).

[wbrocks67]

Data for Progress GCB at R+1, 46-45.

Their last two polls were R+4 and R+3.

July 13-25: R+3 (48-45)
Aug 1-2: R+4 (48-44)
Aug 12-28: R+1 (46-45)

https://www.dataforprogress.org/generic-congressional-ballot

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Data for Progress GCB at R+1, 46-45.

Their last two polls were R+4 and R+3.

July 13-25: R+3 (48-45)
Aug 1-2: R+4 (48-44)
Aug 12-28: R+1 (46-45)

https://www.dataforprogress.org/generic-congressional-ballot

I would have said throw it in the average if it wasn't DFP. They are garbage

[Person Man]

Data for Progress GCB at R+1, 46-45.

Their last two polls were R+4 and R+3.

July 13-25: R+3 (48-45)
Aug 1-2: R+4 (48-44)
Aug 12-28: R+1 (46-45)

https://www.dataforprogress.org/generic-congressional-ballot

I would have said throw it in the average if it wasn't DFP. They are garbage

Didn’t they underestimate NY-19 by 13%?

[wbrocks67]

Data for Progress GCB at R+1, 46-45.

Their last two polls were R+4 and R+3.

July 13-25: R+3 (48-45)
Aug 1-2: R+4 (48-44)
Aug 12-28: R+1 (46-45)

https://www.dataforprogress.org/generic-congressional-ballot

I would have said throw it in the average if it wasn't DFP. They are garbage

Didn’t they underestimate NY-19 by 13%?

Yep lol

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Data for Progress GCB at R+1, 46-45.

Their last two polls were R+4 and R+3.

July 13-25: R+3 (48-45)
Aug 1-2: R+4 (48-44)
Aug 12-28: R+1 (46-45)

https://www.dataforprogress.org/generic-congressional-ballot

I would have said throw it in the average if it wasn't DFP. They are garbage

Didn’t they underestimate NY-19 by 13%?

Yep lol

That's my point, they suck. They've overestimated democrats before too. They are like Q pac

[wbrocks67]

A collection of internal Democratic polls conducted in August in a dozen battleground seats, which were reviewed by POLITICO, showed Democratic candidates running, on average, more than 6 percentage points above Biden’s favorability rating in those districts. On the higher end of the spectrum were Wild and Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Mich.).

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/06/gop-inside-track-to-house-majority-dems-00054821

And I got mocked for saying Susan Wild was a strong incumbent!

[Spectator]

A collection of internal Democratic polls conducted in August in a dozen battleground seats, which were reviewed by POLITICO, showed Democratic candidates running, on average, more than 6 percentage points above Biden’s favorability rating in those districts. On the higher end of the spectrum were Wild and Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Mich.).

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/06/gop-inside-track-to-house-majority-dems-00054821

And I got mocked for saying Susan Wild was a strong incumbent!

She’s not.

[wbrocks67]

A collection of internal Democratic polls conducted in August in a dozen battleground seats, which were reviewed by POLITICO, showed Democratic candidates running, on average, more than 6 percentage points above Biden’s favorability rating in those districts. On the higher end of the spectrum were Wild and Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Mich.).

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/06/gop-inside-track-to-house-majority-dems-00054821

And I got mocked for saying Susan Wild was a strong incumbent!

She’s not.

She's outrunning Biden by the most among many battleground Dems, so how is she not? Where's the proof she's not?

[Spectator]

A collection of internal Democratic polls conducted in August in a dozen battleground seats, which were reviewed by POLITICO, showed Democratic candidates running, on average, more than 6 percentage points above Biden’s favorability rating in those districts. On the higher end of the spectrum were Wild and Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Mich.).

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/06/gop-inside-track-to-house-majority-dems-00054821

And I got mocked for saying Susan Wild was a strong incumbent!

She’s not.

She's outrunning Biden by the most among many battleground Dems, so how is she not? Where's the proof she's not?

Her foot in mouth disease. We’ll see in November when she loses even while Shapiro and Fetterman win!

[wesmoorenerd]

A collection of internal Democratic polls conducted in August in a dozen battleground seats, which were reviewed by POLITICO, showed Democratic candidates running, on average, more than 6 percentage points above Biden’s favorability rating in those districts. On the higher end of the spectrum were Wild and Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Mich.).

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/06/gop-inside-track-to-house-majority-dems-00054821

And I got mocked for saying Susan Wild was a strong incumbent!

She’s not.

She's outrunning Biden by the most among many battleground Dems, so how is she not? Where's the proof she's not?

middle aged white woman = weak candidate, according to the atlas experts

[Spectator]

A collection of internal Democratic polls conducted in August in a dozen battleground seats, which were reviewed by POLITICO, showed Democratic candidates running, on average, more than 6 percentage points above Biden’s favorability rating in those districts. On the higher end of the spectrum were Wild and Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Mich.).

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/06/gop-inside-track-to-house-majority-dems-00054821

And I got mocked for saying Susan Wild was a strong incumbent!

She’s not.

She's outrunning Biden by the most among many battleground Dems, so how is she not? Where's the proof she's not?

middle aged white woman = weak candidate, according to the atlas experts

Funny, Scheller is also a middle aged white woman. I have Peltola and Kaptur winning Trump districts too in my November prediction so nice try.

[wesmoorenerd]

A collection of internal Democratic polls conducted in August in a dozen battleground seats, which were reviewed by POLITICO, showed Democratic candidates running, on average, more than 6 percentage points above Biden’s favorability rating in those districts. On the higher end of the spectrum were Wild and Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Mich.).

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/06/gop-inside-track-to-house-majority-dems-00054821

And I got mocked for saying Susan Wild was a strong incumbent!

She’s not.

She's outrunning Biden by the most among many battleground Dems, so how is she not? Where's the proof she's not?

middle aged white woman = weak candidate, according to the atlas experts

Funny, Scheller is also a middle aged white woman. I have Peltola and Kaptur winning Trump districts too in my November prediction so nice try.

famous white woman mary peltola

[Spectator]

A collection of internal Democratic polls conducted in August in a dozen battleground seats, which were reviewed by POLITICO, showed Democratic candidates running, on average, more than 6 percentage points above Biden’s favorability rating in those districts. On the higher end of the spectrum were Wild and Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Mich.).

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/06/gop-inside-track-to-house-majority-dems-00054821

And I got mocked for saying Susan Wild was a strong incumbent!

She’s not.

She's outrunning Biden by the most among many battleground Dems, so how is she not? Where's the proof she's not?

middle aged white woman = weak candidate, according to the atlas experts

Funny, Scheller is also a middle aged white woman. I have Peltola and Kaptur winning Trump districts too in my November prediction so nice try.

famous white woman mary peltola

Touché, you got me there.

[wbrocks67]

In all seriousness, I traveled thru PA-07 over the weekend (Lehigh Valley) and there was a LOT of lawn signs. Also was struck at it being nearly 50/50 between Scheller and Wild with maybe Wild having a bit of an edge.

[GALeftist]

I was reliably informed that the magic of after-labor-day-ness would cause a Republican tidal wave of epic proportions, yet this morning I woke up and found to my horror that Democrats still led the GCB. What gives??

[wbrocks67]

InsiderAdvantage (R) has D+1, 45-44.

Their last poll had R+1, 45-44 at the beginning of August.

https://amgreatness.com/2022/09/06/joe-bidens-approval-rating-surges-to-45-percent-in-new-insider-advantage-poll/

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/amyewalter/status/1567170117108211713

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

https://twitter.com/amyewalter/status/1567170117108211713

This midterm is looking much more like a choice election rather than the referendum that Republicans wanted it to be, which is almost certainly attributable to both the Supreme Court's actions and to Trump's never-ending insistence to continue hijacking our politics.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1567158179938582533

Another # that should terrify Rs

[Holmes]

InsiderAdvantage (R) has D+1, 45-44.

Their last poll had R+1, 45-44 at the beginning of August.

https://amgreatness.com/2022/09/06/joe-bidens-approval-rating-surges-to-45-percent-in-new-insider-advantage-poll/

Oh they were mad about these results.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1567242440536649728

Most interesting is who is not getting any spending.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1567242440536649728
Most interesting is who is not getting any spending.

Are they giving up on AZ?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1567242440536649728

Most interesting is who is not getting any spending.

I can see GA going R before AZ but PA is far less likely to go R than AZ lol. If your spending on PA you should be spending on AZ too. Rick Scott/NRSC has been a joke this cycle

[Spectator]

Three millions of dollars being poured into Ohio in a race that Vance was never in any serious risk of losing is stunning.