2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1572956918020460544

20% undecided? Margin aside, trash it.

[Lief 🗽]

Good news: the 538 general ballot is now D+2.0, the highest since last November.

Bad news: the last time Democrat’s had this “big” of a lead, they lost VA and almost NJ

[GeorgiaModerate]

Good news: the 538 general ballot is now D+2.0, the highest since last November.

Bad news: the last time Democrat’s had this “big” of a lead, they lost VA and almost NJ

They added that absurd D+12 poll from Premise (whoever they are).  This has also pushed R's down to 69% for House control in the Deluxe model.

[wbrocks67]

Good news: the 538 general ballot is now D+2.0, the highest since last November.

Bad news: the last time Democrat’s had this “big” of a lead, they lost VA and almost NJ

I feel like the VA and NJ races FWIW were very outside of what was going on nationally and very specific races. VA had a ton of local headwinds while Murphy also had to contend with NJ not usually being willing to re-elect a sitting Dem gov.

I think to the PA result where the Supreme Court race was R+1, which lined up perfectly with a national GCB of D+2, compared to 2020 (Biden wins by 1 with +4 nationally)

[Person Man]

Good news: the 538 general ballot is now D+2.0, the highest since last November.

Bad news: the last time Democrat’s had this “big” of a lead, they lost VA and almost NJ

I feel like the VA and NJ races FWIW were very outside of what was going on nationally and very specific races. VA had a ton of local headwinds while Murphy also had to contend with NJ not usually being willing to re-elect a sitting Dem gov.

I think to the PA result where the Supreme Court race was R+1, which lined up perfectly with a national GCB of D+2, compared to 2020 (Biden wins by 1 with +4 nationally)

Of course, the environment has changed.

[wbrocks67]

Cygnal (R) has GCB tied, 47-47

same as their last poll in August

https://www.cygn.al/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/September-Cygnal-National-Deck.pdf

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1573052839915622406
The only thing surprising here is that anyone might think Trump is ever out to help anyone but himself.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Cygnal (R) has GCB tied, 47-47

same as their last poll in August

https://www.cygn.al/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/September-Cygnal-National-Deck.pdf

Slide 13: "Trump image is now positive; fostered by double-digit positive swings among college-educated and upper-income voters".  They have Trump at 48.8% favorable, 48.7% unfavorable.  I'm just a wee bit inclined to doubt this.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Cygnal (R) has GCB tied, 47-47

same as their last poll in August

https://www.cygn.al/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/September-Cygnal-National-Deck.pdf

Slide 13: "Trump image is now positive; fostered by double-digit positive swings among college-educated and upper-income voters".  They have Trump at 48.8% favorable, 48.7% unfavorable.  I'm just a wee bit inclined to doubt this.

That's good news for Dems then, right? Tied in a clear R NUT push poll?

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Cygnal (R) has GCB tied, 47-47

same as their last poll in August

https://www.cygn.al/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/September-Cygnal-National-Deck.pdf

Slide 13: "Trump image is now positive; fostered by double-digit positive swings among college-educated and upper-income voters".  They have Trump at 48.8% favorable, 48.7% unfavorable.  I'm just a wee bit inclined to doubt this.

That's good news for Dems then, right? Tied in a clear R NUT push poll?

It's certainly not bad news

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We are all set Early voting is set to begin next week NV Laxalt leading by 3 is no big deal it's MOE we must realize this but why is he leading because of the border is open, but we must stay optimistic until every vote is casted until 11/08 it's still 45 days till EDay

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1573028316981886977

[Devils30]

Good news: the 538 general ballot is now D+2.0, the highest since last November.

Bad news: the last time Democrat’s had this “big” of a lead, they lost VA and almost NJ

I feel like the VA and NJ races FWIW were very outside of what was going on nationally and very specific races. VA had a ton of local headwinds while Murphy also had to contend with NJ not usually being willing to re-elect a sitting Dem gov.

I think to the PA result where the Supreme Court race was R+1, which lined up perfectly with a national GCB of D+2, compared to 2020 (Biden wins by 1 with +4 nationally)

The GOP actually rigged the nomination for Youngkin by having a convention and NJ's county line basically rigged it for Ciatterelli. Both were very strong candidates.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Good news: the 538 general ballot is now D+2.0, the highest since last November.

Bad news: the last time Democrat’s had this “big” of a lead, they lost VA and almost NJ

I feel like the VA and NJ races FWIW were very outside of what was going on nationally and very specific races. VA had a ton of local headwinds while Murphy also had to contend with NJ not usually being willing to re-elect a sitting Dem gov.

I think to the PA result where the Supreme Court race was R+1, which lined up perfectly with a national GCB of D+2, compared to 2020 (Biden wins by 1 with +4 nationally)

The GOP actually rigged the nomination for Youngkin by having a convention and NJ's county line basically rigged it for Ciatterelli. Both were very strong candidates.

Just curious how exactly would the County lines rig it for Ciatterelli?

[ProgressiveModerate]

It's also worth noting that universal swing isn't real. Even people expect neutral national environments have many Biden + 5-10 seats rated as tossups while a few Trump seats are also tossups.

Given the specific dynamics in VA and NJ, they likely voted slightly to the right of what you'd expect given the true "National Environment". I also feel like that Pennsyalvania SC Court race isn't really fair to use because of how much less partisan that sort of election is and the lower turnout. Also somebody above said that race was R+1 which isn't true, it was R+5 which while isn't as brutal of a shift for Dems, still isn't great.

[Roll Roons]

Good news: the 538 general ballot is now D+2.0, the highest since last November.

Bad news: the last time Democrat’s had this “big” of a lead, they lost VA and almost NJ

I feel like the VA and NJ races FWIW were very outside of what was going on nationally and very specific races. VA had a ton of local headwinds while Murphy also had to contend with NJ not usually being willing to re-elect a sitting Dem gov.

I think to the PA result where the Supreme Court race was R+1, which lined up perfectly with a national GCB of D+2, compared to 2020 (Biden wins by 1 with +4 nationally)

The GOP actually rigged the nomination for Youngkin by having a convention and NJ's county line basically rigged it for Ciatterelli. Both were very strong candidates.

Just curious how exactly would the County lines rig it for Ciatterelli?

The county parties can endorse candidates who then get favorable positioning on the ballot. A candidate who has "the line" will have a huge advantage in that particular county's primary but it's not an absolute guarantee of victory.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Good news: the 538 general ballot is now D+2.0, the highest since last November.

Bad news: the last time Democrat’s had this “big” of a lead, they lost VA and almost NJ

I feel like the VA and NJ races FWIW were very outside of what was going on nationally and very specific races. VA had a ton of local headwinds while Murphy also had to contend with NJ not usually being willing to re-elect a sitting Dem gov.

I think to the PA result where the Supreme Court race was R+1, which lined up perfectly with a national GCB of D+2, compared to 2020 (Biden wins by 1 with +4 nationally)

The GOP actually rigged the nomination for Youngkin by having a convention and NJ's county line basically rigged it for Ciatterelli. Both were very strong candidates.

Just curious how exactly would the County lines rig it for Ciatterelli?

The county parties can endorse candidates who then get favorable positioning on the ballot. A candidate who has "the line" will have a huge advantage in that particular county's primary but it's not an absolute guarantee of victory.

That's an interesting system and I'm suprised i didn't know about that given how much time I spend in NJ.

[Roll Roons]

Good news: the 538 general ballot is now D+2.0, the highest since last November.

Bad news: the last time Democrat’s had this “big” of a lead, they lost VA and almost NJ

I feel like the VA and NJ races FWIW were very outside of what was going on nationally and very specific races. VA had a ton of local headwinds while Murphy also had to contend with NJ not usually being willing to re-elect a sitting Dem gov.

I think to the PA result where the Supreme Court race was R+1, which lined up perfectly with a national GCB of D+2, compared to 2020 (Biden wins by 1 with +4 nationally)

The GOP actually rigged the nomination for Youngkin by having a convention and NJ's county line basically rigged it for Ciatterelli. Both were very strong candidates.

Just curious how exactly would the County lines rig it for Ciatterelli?

The county parties can endorse candidates who then get favorable positioning on the ballot. A candidate who has "the line" will have a huge advantage in that particular county's primary but it's not an absolute guarantee of victory.

That's an interesting system and I'm suprised i didn't know about that given how much time I spend in NJ.

I actually like it. New Jersey is probably tied with Utah for having the least MAGA-fied state GOP and I think the county line is a big part of why that is.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Good news: the 538 general ballot is now D+2.0, the highest since last November.

Bad news: the last time Democrat’s had this “big” of a lead, they lost VA and almost NJ

I feel like the VA and NJ races FWIW were very outside of what was going on nationally and very specific races. VA had a ton of local headwinds while Murphy also had to contend with NJ not usually being willing to re-elect a sitting Dem gov.

I think to the PA result where the Supreme Court race was R+1, which lined up perfectly with a national GCB of D+2, compared to 2020 (Biden wins by 1 with +4 nationally)

The GOP actually rigged the nomination for Youngkin by having a convention and NJ's county line basically rigged it for Ciatterelli. Both were very strong candidates.

Just curious how exactly would the County lines rig it for Ciatterelli?

The county parties can endorse candidates who then get favorable positioning on the ballot. A candidate who has "the line" will have a huge advantage in that particular county's primary but it's not an absolute guarantee of victory.

That's an interesting system and I'm suprised i didn't know about that given how much time I spend in NJ.

I actually like it. New Jersey is probably tied with Utah for having the least MAGA-fied state GOP and I think the county line is a big part of why that is.

To NJ Rs credit, they’ve been able to hold down a lot of pretty blue seats even during the Trump era you may not normally expect.

[prag_prog]

https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/1573253087086739456

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/1573253087086739456

😂 I mean, if that graph doesn’t scream disarray, I don’t know what does.

[wbrocks67]

It's also worth noting that universal swing isn't real. Even people expect neutral national environments have many Biden + 5-10 seats rated as tossups while a few Trump seats are also tossups.

Given the specific dynamics in VA and NJ, they likely voted slightly to the right of what you'd expect given the true "National Environment". I also feel like that Pennsyalvania SC Court race isn't really fair to use because of how much less partisan that sort of election is and the lower turnout. Also somebody above said that race was R+1 which isn't true, it was R+5 which while isn't as brutal of a shift for Dems, still isn't great.

The Supreme Court elections are just as partisan. People knew McLaughlin was the D and Brobson was the R, and the ads reflected that.

There was also nearly 2.8M turnout which I wouldn't call "low turnout"

Also, yes it was R+1. It was Brobson 50.45, McLaughlin 49.55.

[ProgressiveModerate]

It's also worth noting that universal swing isn't real. Even people expect neutral national environments have many Biden + 5-10 seats rated as tossups while a few Trump seats are also tossups.

Given the specific dynamics in VA and NJ, they likely voted slightly to the right of what you'd expect given the true "National Environment". I also feel like that Pennsyalvania SC Court race isn't really fair to use because of how much less partisan that sort of election is and the lower turnout. Also somebody above said that race was R+1 which isn't true, it was R+5 which while isn't as brutal of a shift for Dems, still isn't great.

The Supreme Court elections are just as partisan. People knew McLaughlin was the D and Brobson was the R, and the ads reflected that.

There was also nearly 2.8M turnout which I wouldn't call "low turnout"

Also, yes it was R+1. It was Brobson 50.45, McLaughlin 49.55.

You’re on the ground so I trust you on stuff like ads, but ballotpedia says it was R + 5. I tried looking for a site that said otherwise but couldn’t find anythibg

[wbrocks67]

It's also worth noting that universal swing isn't real. Even people expect neutral national environments have many Biden + 5-10 seats rated as tossups while a few Trump seats are also tossups.

Given the specific dynamics in VA and NJ, they likely voted slightly to the right of what you'd expect given the true "National Environment". I also feel like that Pennsyalvania SC Court race isn't really fair to use because of how much less partisan that sort of election is and the lower turnout. Also somebody above said that race was R+1 which isn't true, it was R+5 which while isn't as brutal of a shift for Dems, still isn't great.

The Supreme Court elections are just as partisan. People knew McLaughlin was the D and Brobson was the R, and the ads reflected that.

There was also nearly 2.8M turnout which I wouldn't call "low turnout"

Also, yes it was R+1. It was Brobson 50.45, McLaughlin 49.55.

You’re on the ground so I trust you on stuff like ads, but ballotpedia says it was R + 5. I tried looking for a site that said otherwise but couldn’t find anythibg

LMK if this works - https://www.electionreturns.pa.gov/General/SummaryResults?ElectionID=84&ElectionType=G&IsActive=0

That's the most up to date, the DOS website. I think ballotpedia and places like NYT also just stopped counting after that night (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/11/02/us/elections/results-pennsylvania.html)

[wbrocks67]

Rasmussen GCB R+2, 44-42. It was R+1 last week, 43-42

https://t.co/qKl4PHUAz5