2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[GeorgiaModerate]

Three millions of dollars being poured into Ohio in a race that Vance was never in any serious risk of losing is stunning.

Apparently the SLF has a different evaluation of the race than you do.

[Spectator]

Three millions of dollars being poured into Ohio in a race that Vance was never in any serious risk of losing is stunning.

Apparently the SLF has a different evaluation of the race than you do.

I’m old enough to remember both parties throwing money at states like Iowa and South Carolina in 2020 when many here (correctly) pointed out that both were Safe R the whole time.

[wbrocks67]

Three millions of dollars being poured into Ohio in a race that Vance was never in any serious risk of losing is stunning.

Clearly he is if they're spending this much to save him.

[wbrocks67]

Three millions of dollars being poured into Ohio in a race that Vance was never in any serious risk of losing is stunning.

Apparently the SLF has a different evaluation of the race than you do.

I’m old enough to remember both parties throwing money at states like Iowa and South Carolina in 2020 when many here (correctly) pointed out that both were Safe R the whole time.

Not at the level that the GOP is spending on OH. Also, just b/c something happened in the past doesn't mean it's the same thing this year.

[wbrocks67]

OnMessage (R) / Senate Opportunity Fund

GCB R+2, 46-44

They had this at R+4 (47-43) in their last poll in mid-August

More movement towards Dems

https://senopportunity.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/2022-09-31-PUBLIC-DECK-National-SOF.pdf

[philly09]

OnMessage (R) / Senate Opportunity Fund

GCB R+2, 46-44

They had this at R+4 (47-43) in their last poll in mid-August

More movement towards Dems

https://senopportunity.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/2022-09-31-PUBLIC-DECK-National-SOF.pdf

And Biden's approval is at 48/48

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

OnMessage (R) / Senate Opportunity Fund

GCB R+2, 46-44

They had this at R+4 (47-43) in their last poll in mid-August

More movement towards Dems

https://senopportunity.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/2022-09-31-PUBLIC-DECK-National-SOF.pdf

And Biden's approval is at 48/48

👀

[kwabbit]

Three millions of dollars being poured into Ohio in a race that Vance was never in any serious risk of losing is stunning.

Apparently the SLF has a different evaluation of the race than you do.

Internal polling is most of the time less accurate than public polling. Mitch McConnell does not have much more useful intel on this race than we do.

In the case of Ohio, Iowa, Colorado, and other former swing states that have trended quickly, he might be tethered to a time when Ohio was close to the national environment, not the current reality when it's significantly to the right of it. As it stands, Vance will probably win from partisans coming home in the last few months. But McConnell might think that wouldn't be a factor if he doesn't hold Ohio as a strong lean-R state at worst.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Three millions of dollars being poured into Ohio in a race that Vance was never in any serious risk of losing is stunning.

Apparently the SLF has a different evaluation of the race than you do.

Internal polling is most of the time less accurate than public polling. Mitch McConnell does not have much more useful intel on this race than we do.

In the case of Ohio, Iowa, Colorado, and other former swing states that have trended quickly, he might be tethered to a time when Ohio was close to the national environment, not the current reality when it's significantly to the right of it. As it stands, Vance will probably win from partisans coming home in the last few months. But McConnell might think that wouldn't be a factor if he doesn't hold Ohio as a strong lean-R state at worst.

There are also competitive House races in Ohio, so getting more R messaging out would help in the Republican goal of taking at least one chamber, even if they don't need it for holding the Senate race.

[kwabbit]

Three millions of dollars being poured into Ohio in a race that Vance was never in any serious risk of losing is stunning.

Apparently the SLF has a different evaluation of the race than you do.

Internal polling is most of the time less accurate than public polling. Mitch McConnell does not have much more useful intel on this race than we do.

In the case of Ohio, Iowa, Colorado, and other former swing states that have trended quickly, he might be tethered to a time when Ohio was close to the national environment, not the current reality when it's significantly to the right of it. As it stands, Vance will probably win from partisans coming home in the last few months. But McConnell might think that wouldn't be a factor if he doesn't hold Ohio as a strong lean-R state at worst.

There are also competitive House races in Ohio, so getting more R messaging out would help in the Republican goal of taking at least one chamber, even if they don't need it for holding the Senate race.

That's true. Is there any way to see if the funding is more specifically targeted to Cincy, Toledo, Akron?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Three millions of dollars being poured into Ohio in a race that Vance was never in any serious risk of losing is stunning.

Apparently the SLF has a different evaluation of the race than you do.

Internal polling is most of the time less accurate than public polling. Mitch McConnell does not have much more useful intel on this race than we do.

In the case of Ohio, Iowa, Colorado, and other former swing states that have trended quickly, he might be tethered to a time when Ohio was close to the national environment, not the current reality when it's significantly to the right of it. As it stands, Vance will probably win from partisans coming home in the last few months. But McConnell might think that wouldn't be a factor if he doesn't hold Ohio as a strong lean-R state at worst.

I am skeptical this is true.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Three millions of dollars being poured into Ohio in a race that Vance was never in any serious risk of losing is stunning.

Apparently the SLF has a different evaluation of the race than you do.

Internal polling is most of the time less accurate than public polling. Mitch McConnell does not have much more useful intel on this race than we do.

In the case of Ohio, Iowa, Colorado, and other former swing states that have trended quickly, he might be tethered to a time when Ohio was close to the national environment, not the current reality when it's significantly to the right of it. As it stands, Vance will probably win from partisans coming home in the last few months. But McConnell might think that wouldn't be a factor if he doesn't hold Ohio as a strong lean-R state at worst.

I am skeptical this is true.

It's entirely possible he knows Masters has something extremely bad (he asked people to 'not ask my former classmates what I wrote and said when I was in school') that he knows will come out.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Three millions of dollars being poured into Ohio in a race that Vance was never in any serious risk of losing is stunning.

Apparently the SLF has a different evaluation of the race than you do.

Internal polling is most of the time less accurate than public polling. Mitch McConnell does not have much more useful intel on this race than we do.

In the case of Ohio, Iowa, Colorado, and other former swing states that have trended quickly, he might be tethered to a time when Ohio was close to the national environment, not the current reality when it's significantly to the right of it. As it stands, Vance will probably win from partisans coming home in the last few months. But McConnell might think that wouldn't be a factor if he doesn't hold Ohio as a strong lean-R state at worst.

Publicly released internals =/= private internal polling

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, the whole "internal polling is worse than public polling" just isn't true.

Even in 2020, Biden's pollster team constantly said that their internal polling was always closer than much of the public polling.

[wbrocks67]

Morning Consult has launched a GCB tracker. Looks like it updates everyday with a rolling 3 day average. This is separate from the weekly Politico/Morning Consult poll.

It's D+2 right now. Looks like it has between about D+2 to D+4 for a while now.

https://morningconsult.com/2022-midterm-elections-tracker/

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We did win AK and NY 19 the only reason why Trump overperformed was because unemployment was coming back but there was no inflation until 2021 because wages didn't increase until 2021 from 10/15

If Trump was running in this Environment he would be struggling too with inflation but he was impeached twice

It's a Neutral Environment until red states start turning blue or vice versa on EDay and so far Rs aren't turning any blue states red they are failing in PA and WI and they won't win AZ and NV Lake can win but not Masters

[MT Treasurer]

InsiderAdvantage (R) has D+1, 45-44.

Their last poll had R+1, 45-44 at the beginning of August.

https://amgreatness.com/2022/09/06/joe-bidens-approval-rating-surges-to-45-percent-in-new-insider-advantage-poll/

Fascinating racial crosstabs here-

Among white likely voters, 46.2 percent approved of Biden’s job performance. Among black likely voters, 56.9 percent approved. Only 35.8 percent of all other races approved of the job Biden is doing.

If this is even close to accurate, this midterm election has the potential to shatter traditional coalitions more so than any other one in recent history.

[Devils30]

InsiderAdvantage (R) has D+1, 45-44.

Their last poll had R+1, 45-44 at the beginning of August.

https://amgreatness.com/2022/09/06/joe-bidens-approval-rating-surges-to-45-percent-in-new-insider-advantage-poll/

Fascinating racial crosstabs here-

Among white likely voters, 46.2 percent approved of Biden’s job performance. Among black likely voters, 56.9 percent approved. Only 35.8 percent of all other races approved of the job Biden is doing.

If this is even close to accurate, this midterm election has the potential to shatter traditional coalitions more so than any other one in recent history.

It isn't

[GeorgiaModerate]

Yahoo/YouGov: D+5 (45/40) among RV, D+3 (48/45) among those who "definitely will vote".

https://news.yahoo.com/poll-democrats-lead-republicans-among-those-who-say-theyll-definitely-vote-in-midterms-221434935.html

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Yahoo/YouGov: D+5 (45/40) among RV, D+3 (48/45) among those who "definitely will vote".

https://news.yahoo.com/poll-democrats-lead-republicans-among-those-who-say-theyll-definitely-vote-in-midterms-221434935.html

If Dems were to win by three nationally, that's around where I think they would be slightly favored to hold the House. Not betting that will happen yet, but something to watch.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Yahoo/YouGov: D+5 (45/40) among RV, D+3 (48/45) among those who "definitely will vote".

https://news.yahoo.com/poll-democrats-lead-republicans-among-those-who-say-theyll-definitely-vote-in-midterms-221434935.html

If Dems were to win by three nationally, that's around where I think they would be slightly favored to hold the House. Not betting that will happen yet, but something to watch.

I've seen a couple of pundits say that D+2.5 is the break-even point.  Of course, that assumes the vote is distributed "correctly", i.e. proportionately to each district's partisan lean.  That is very unlikely to happen in the real world.

[S019]

Three millions of dollars being poured into Ohio in a race that Vance was never in any serious risk of losing is stunning.

Apparently the SLF has a different evaluation of the race than you do.

I’m old enough to remember both parties throwing money at states like Iowa and South Carolina in 2020 when many here (correctly) pointed out that both were Safe R the whole time.

Not at the level that the GOP is spending on OH. Also, just b/c something happened in the past doesn't mean it's the same thing this year.

The real answer is that it's dangerous to just let the Democrats bash Vance on the airwaves and do nothing. If the Republicans do nothing to counter the Democratic narrative, that's basically the only route left for Democrats to win Ohio outside of a Democratic tsunami, so it makes sense to put a few million in just to make sure it's actually secure. Even considering all of this, I'd still expect partisanship to bail out Vance in the end even if the Republicans didn't spend much, because of how red it's gotten. I think unless the national environment can get past D+6-7, Ryan's hopes are very, very slim.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Three millions of dollars being poured into Ohio in a race that Vance was never in any serious risk of losing is stunning.

Apparently the SLF has a different evaluation of the race than you do.

I’m old enough to remember both parties throwing money at states like Iowa and South Carolina in 2020 when many here (correctly) pointed out that both were Safe R the whole time.

The holy trinity

 

[Roll Roons]

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/top-pro-house-gop-super-pac-launches-ad-blitz-21-key-congressional-districts

CLF starting TV ads in:
CA-13
CA-22
CA-27
CA-45
CA-47
CT-05
MI-03
MI-10
MN-02
NE-02
NJ-07
NM-02
NY-18
OH-13
OR-05
PA-17
TX-15
TX-28
VA-02
WA-08
WI-03

[wbrocks67]

Yahoo/YouGov: D+5 (45/40) among RV, D+3 (48/45) among those who "definitely will vote".

https://news.yahoo.com/poll-democrats-lead-republicans-among-those-who-say-theyll-definitely-vote-in-midterms-221434935.html

Interesting that the "enthusiasm gap" is now favoring Dems. In what was thought to be a red wave year.