2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[OSR stands with Israel]

I also think it's interesting just in the sense that that many people still want divided government. I get that in theory you would think oh, it makes people work together. But in reality, we have seen that is not the case and divided government these days just equals less getting done entirely.

I don't think people with status quo bias expect anyone to work together, they're just in an economic place where the status quo is to their liking. They don't want the Democrats to make things fairer for the less fortunate at their expense and they don't want the Republicans to turn our country into (more of) a prison camp with daily mass shootings. They want the gridlock on non tax breaks.

In a twist nobody could possibly have seen coming, their work to preserve an unfair system that most people struggle in has removed their "delay forever and enjoy being rich" option. Most of them won't admit it or accept it until it's too late.

George Will’s famous quote :

Will said that President Barack Obama is "the most crystalline" representation today of Woodrow Wilson's philosophy, while James Madison's ideas are represented by conservative movements such as the Tea Party. "In the Madisonian persuasion, of which I am acolyte, gridlock is not an American problem, it is an American achievement,

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2010/09/george-will-in-defense-of-partisanship/63856/

[GALeftist]

George Will’s famous quote :

Will said that President Barack Obama is "the most crystalline" representation today of Woodrow Wilson's philosophy, while James Madison's ideas are represented by conservative movements such as the Tea Party. "In the Madisonian persuasion, of which I am acolyte, gridlock is not an American problem, it is an American achievement,

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2010/09/george-will-in-defense-of-partisanship/63856/

Famously conservative James Madison. Lel

[OSR stands with Israel]

George Will’s famous quote :

Will said that President Barack Obama is "the most crystalline" representation today of Woodrow Wilson's philosophy, while James Madison's ideas are represented by conservative movements such as the Tea Party. "In the Madisonian persuasion, of which I am acolyte, gridlock is not an American problem, it is an American achievement,

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2010/09/george-will-in-defense-of-partisanship/63856/

Famously conservative James Madison. Lel

This was at a time when conservative pundits tried to also argue Jefferson was a conservative too

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Dems now +1.2 (44.9-43.7) on 538 Average, highest since early November 2021. 44.9% is the highest the Democrats have been at since early October 2021, while the Republicans' 43.7% is the lowest it's been since late January 2022.

[Pericles]

Dems now +1.2 (44.9-43.7) on 538 Average, highest since early November 2021. 44.9% is the highest the Democrats have been at since early October 2021, while the Republicans' 43.7% is the lowest it's been since late January 2022.

If you don't assume that polls are underestimating Republicans nationwide, there is a real chance Democrats retain the House (IF the polls do not swing against them in the final weeks). Wow.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1568248439816835073

[soundchaser]

Not sure why they're wasting that much in VA-07.

[wbrocks67]

Rasmussen GCB at R+4, 46-42

https://t.co/FUHcEEvhfE

[Devils30]

Rasmussen GCB at R+4, 46-42

https://t.co/FUHcEEvhfE

GOPs biggest concern now is the non-Rassy, Trafalgar, news nation polls show Dems up 4-6. Without the R+5 outliers in the average, Dems would have a number sufficient to get them control of the House. Overall none of these pollsters have any transparency and I won't buy Insider Advantage showing Dems stronger in FL than GA.

[wbrocks67]

There was also another POLITICO poll with D+3 added to the 538 average. It was from like 8/5-22 or something for some college.

Has pushed the average to D+1.3, 45.0-43.7

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1568248439816835073

Yall can roll your eyes at MT Treasurer all you want but he was spot on about the NRCC/Republucan leadership! What a bunch of clown! If it's really a "neutral" environment, Cuellar is more likely to win by double digits than lose lol! He's got massive crossover appeal!

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Not sure why they're wasting that much in VA-07.

No kidding! It would take a tsunami to take out Spanberger. Not even a strong gop year could push a disaster like Vega over the line

[Ferguson97]

Dems now +1.2 (44.9-43.7) on 538 Average, highest since early November 2021. 44.9% is the highest the Democrats have been at since early October 2021, while the Republicans' 43.7% is the lowest it's been since late January 2022.

If you don't assume that polls are underestimating Republicans nationwide, there is a real chance Democrats retain the House (IF the polls do not swing against them in the final weeks). Wow.

The polls are probably underestimating Republican support, but it's not like the polls have gotten less accurate in the past year, so there is still an obvious shift towards the Dems.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1568339174041739264

30% undecided?

[Vosem]

Dems now +1.2 (44.9-43.7) on 538 Average, highest since early November 2021. 44.9% is the highest the Democrats have been at since early October 2021, while the Republicans' 43.7% is the lowest it's been since late January 2022.

If you don't assume that polls are underestimating Republicans nationwide, there is a real chance Democrats retain the House (IF the polls do not swing against them in the final weeks). Wow.

The polls are probably underestimating Republican support, but it's not like the polls have gotten less accurate in the past year, so there is still an obvious shift towards the Dems.

I mean, in November 2021 the GCB was D+1 and the actual election outcomes up and down the ballot corresponded to R+7.

[Ferguson97]

Dems now +1.2 (44.9-43.7) on 538 Average, highest since early November 2021. 44.9% is the highest the Democrats have been at since early October 2021, while the Republicans' 43.7% is the lowest it's been since late January 2022.

If you don't assume that polls are underestimating Republicans nationwide, there is a real chance Democrats retain the House (IF the polls do not swing against them in the final weeks). Wow.

The polls are probably underestimating Republican support, but it's not like the polls have gotten less accurate in the past year, so there is still an obvious shift towards the Dems.

I mean, in November 2021 the GCB was D+1 and the actual election outcomes up and down the ballot corresponded to R+7.

You're talking about the NJ and VA gubernatorial elections? I don't think it's very useful to compare GCB preference and gubernatorial preference considering we have a Democratic governor in Louisiana and a Republican governor in Massachusetts.

[Vosem]

Dems now +1.2 (44.9-43.7) on 538 Average, highest since early November 2021. 44.9% is the highest the Democrats have been at since early October 2021, while the Republicans' 43.7% is the lowest it's been since late January 2022.

If you don't assume that polls are underestimating Republicans nationwide, there is a real chance Democrats retain the House (IF the polls do not swing against them in the final weeks). Wow.

The polls are probably underestimating Republican support, but it's not like the polls have gotten less accurate in the past year, so there is still an obvious shift towards the Dems.

I mean, in November 2021 the GCB was D+1 and the actual election outcomes up and down the ballot corresponded to R+7.

You're talking about the NJ and VA gubernatorial elections? I don't think it's very useful to compare GCB preference and gubernatorial preference considering we have a Democratic governor in Louisiana and a Republican governor in Massachusetts.

Moreso the state legislative ones, which usually do follow the nation's GCB, although it was very noticeable that at conditions of high turnout people on both sides just voted for the same party up and down the ballot, even when one side or the other had some unusually strong or weak candidate.

[Unelectable Bystander]

Dems now +1.2 (44.9-43.7) on 538 Average, highest since early November 2021. 44.9% is the highest the Democrats have been at since early October 2021, while the Republicans' 43.7% is the lowest it's been since late January 2022.

If you don't assume that polls are underestimating Republicans nationwide, there is a real chance Democrats retain the House (IF the polls do not swing against them in the final weeks). Wow.

The polls are probably underestimating Republican support, but it's not like the polls have gotten less accurate in the past year, so there is still an obvious shift towards the Dems.

I mean, in November 2021 the GCB was D+1 and the actual election outcomes up and down the ballot corresponded to R+7.

This includes down ballot races where Virginia literally went R on the GCB. Only delusional democrats think the environment last November was anything less than a tsunami.

This is one thing giving me confidence in there being polling error, is that the “environment” was probably R+ 6 or 8 in October when the GCB average was D+2.5. It has actually moved rightward from that point, it just doesn’t feel like it because it has recently moved left.

Now I’m not predicting a wave, but the point is that the polls are not automatically correct just because they have showed an R lead in the past year. It’s still possible that they were off by 6 points when the GCB was R+2

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1568339174041739264

30% undecided?

Throw this entire poll into an incinerator.

[wbrocks67]

Dems now +1.2 (44.9-43.7) on 538 Average, highest since early November 2021. 44.9% is the highest the Democrats have been at since early October 2021, while the Republicans' 43.7% is the lowest it's been since late January 2022.

If you don't assume that polls are underestimating Republicans nationwide, there is a real chance Democrats retain the House (IF the polls do not swing against them in the final weeks). Wow.

The polls are probably underestimating Republican support, but it's not like the polls have gotten less accurate in the past year, so there is still an obvious shift towards the Dems.

I mean, in November 2021 the GCB was D+1 and the actual election outcomes up and down the ballot corresponded to R+7.

Maybe in VA, but not everywhere. In PA, a Democrat nearly won a pretty high turnout marquee Supreme Court race. There were other places countrywide (I think Georgia too) where Democrats actually had a pretty good night.

I think it's clear VA was it's own thing, and NJ was affected by the national environment but also the fact that a Dem governor has not won twice in forever.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Dems now +1.2 (44.9-43.7) on 538 Average, highest since early November 2021. 44.9% is the highest the Democrats have been at since early October 2021, while the Republicans' 43.7% is the lowest it's been since late January 2022.

If you don't assume that polls are underestimating Republicans nationwide, there is a real chance Democrats retain the House (IF the polls do not swing against them in the final weeks). Wow.

The polls are probably underestimating Republican support, but it's not like the polls have gotten less accurate in the past year, so there is still an obvious shift towards the Dems.

I mean, in November 2021 the GCB was D+1 and the actual election outcomes up and down the ballot corresponded to R+7.

This isn't wrong, but also the special election outcomes post-Dobbs have all been more in line with a more Democratic environment than what the GCB is suggesting. I'm not saying the actual result will be in line with those special elections, on the contrary I think this is shaping up to be a close to neutral year nationally, but I am saying it probably makes more sense to look at the recent elections than it does to look at elections from a year ago.

[Brittain33]

Not sure why they're wasting that much in VA-07.

It's like VA-10 in 2018, Republicans in D.C. need to waste money and see ads on local tv to feel relevant.

[Brittain33]

This includes down ballot races where Virginia literally went R on the GCB. Only delusional democrats think the environment last November was anything less than a tsunami.

If Virginia was a red tsunami, why did Republicans end up with so many fewer seats in the House of Delegates than they held on the same maps before 2017?

[prag_prog]

I hate Ipsos polls tbh. Just ridiculously high number of undecideds most of the time

[ProgressiveModerate]

I hate Ipsos polls tbh. Just ridiculously high number of undecideds most of the time

In 2020 NYT/Siena was so annoying cause till the end they’d give us polls with 10%+ “undecided” even though they were pretty well respected before.