2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread v2

[Young Conservative]

The DCCC sure tries to do their hardest to imitate the NRSC in incompetence and parody. Backing a deadbeat dad who periodically didn’t pay child support and pissing away millions in the process? I guess I shouldn’t be shocked after they blew over $10 million in GA-6 on a clown who didn’t live in the district.

Uhhh, it's not like there is another viable candidate against running against Ryan to support.
Bryce is the one who took the plunge, so if they want to pick up the district they have no choice but to support him.

Cathy Myers seems far better than bryce imo.

[Young Conservative]

Sessions (for now) looks set to pick up a decent share* of Clinton 16 voters. It's important to note that many voters in TX-32 went for Clinton but generally voted GOP downballot; these are the people who will determine the race, ancestrally Republican suburban voters. Not every one of them is rebelling in 2018, at least on House level, especially if a good incumbent is on the ballot. Sessions certainly looks set to have something of a competitive race considering the national environment but I remain deeply skeptical he'd actually lose at this stage. I may revise this if I see fit later on.

He could certainly hold on, and I view Texas House races with more skepticism than most, but I don't think this is good to go by. A lot of Republican House Reps won in Clinton seats, and many won very comfortably or by landslides. So there isn't anything unique about Sessions in that regard. Historically speaking, their performance in a past election is not the best guide to their future performance, particularly if there is a switch in control of the White House. 2006 and 2010 is littered with examples of Republicans and Democrats who won comfortably or by landslides in the previous election, only to get wiped out in the next.

I don’t think Clinton won a majority in This district either.

[Young Conservative]

I don’t think Clinton won a majority in This district either.

Clinton won a plurality in TX-32: 48.5-46.6.

In this context, it doesn't really matter whether she won a plurality or a straight up majority. It still means the same thing - that support in this area is eroding for Republicans, at least until Trump leaves office, but probably further into the future.

Lol it doesn’t mean it’s eroding for all Republicans. A plurality and majority are a huge difference.

[Young Conservative]

I have yet to see Hawley's first quarter numbers? Where are you finding that information? I do not see that they have been released to the FEC public section yet.

[Young Conservative]

I think it's time Comstock called it quits.

Virginia filing deadline passed. She goes nowhere.

Comstock worked as head of Opposition research for the RNC. She's brutal. Here opponent better watch out.

[Young Conservative]

Comstock will overperform Trump in Virginia, unlike most Republicans who will underperform Trump.

Which means she loses by 6 instead of by 10 like Trump did.

But Young Conservative is a far right polarized 100% reliable GOP voter who will always usually vote GOP no matter what so obviously Republicans win everything.

edit.

[Young Conservative]

Comstock will overperform Trump in Virginia, unlike most Republicans who will underperform Trump.

Which means she loses by 6 instead of by 10 like Trump did.

But Young Conservative is a far right polarized 100% reliable GOP voter who will always usually vote GOP no matter what so obviously Republicans win everything.

edit.

Name 3 federal dems you would support in 2018

I don't have to justify myself to you, nor do I need to support a particular number of candidates this cycle to prove my opinion is valid.

[Young Conservative]

Comstock will overperform Trump in Virginia, unlike most Republicans who will underperform Trump.

Which means she loses by 6 instead of by 10 like Trump did.

But Young Conservative is a far right polarized 100% reliable GOP voter who will always usually vote GOP no matter what so obviously Republicans win everything.

edit.

Name 3 federal dems you would support in 2018

I don't have to justify myself to you, nor do I need to support a particular number of candidates this cycle to prove my opinion is valid.

So you are a 100% gop hack and not a swing voter (unless the d is more conservative than the r). Thanks for confirming. This makes you unable to connect with the us electorate.

He said he’d vote for that pro-gun Democratic state Senator against Phil Scott (D-VT) if that counts. And Manchin over Baker in a hypothetical Pres race that only Atlas weirdos can ever envision happening

Thanks

[Young Conservative]

So basically YC would only vote for dems that are more conservative than the republican lmao

Proved my point that yc is a hack

I think it just demonstrates that he's a conservative.  He's far less of a hack than a number of others (who shall remain nameless so as not to invoke their presence).

Thank you. I’m a conservative. I mean what does he expect me to do?  Vote for the socialist party to justify to him that I am an independent thinker?

[Young Conservative]

The Montana fundraising report confirms my thinking that MT will be the first of the Romney/Trump Senate seats with a Democratic Senator to fall off the board.

Clearly, you didn't look at the reports.

I mean that it’ll be the first red state Republicans triage. Sorry if my wording was a bit ambiguous.

That's how I read it to begin with, i.e. the GOP would drop it off their list of major efforts.

I was confused, but the second read made more sense.

Also, while, I agree Tester is strong, but I do not think these reports are indicative of what will truly be the fundraising spread. Mainstream Republican donors will wait until after the primaries to dump money into the raises.

[Young Conservative]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

If they weren’t panicking before, they should probably panic now.

He also appears to have a well funded primary challenger.

[Young Conservative]

Districts where the top Democrat outraised the top Republican, had more Cash on Hand, did both, or came within $100K:



Some notable competitive districts missing from this chart:

CA-10, CA-21, IL-06, GA-06, MN-03, PA-01, VA-10, WA-08.

I don't think Democrats win VA-10 or WA-08. I think there are more Republican districts that are way easier than those two, highly expensive markets with strong, moderate GOP candidates. It simply would make more sense for democrats to target weak incumbents in cheap media markets even if they are nominally more R in regards to CPVI.

[Young Conservative]

Districts where the top Democrat outraised the top Republican, had more Cash on Hand, did both, or came within $100K:



Some notable competitive districts missing from this chart:

CA-10, CA-21, IL-06, GA-06, MN-03, PA-01, VA-10, WA-08.

I don't think Democrats win VA-10 or WA-08. I think there are more Republican districts that are way easier than those two, highly expensive markets with strong, moderate GOP candidates. It simply would make more sense for democrats to target weak incumbents in cheap media markets even if they are nominally more R in regards to CPVI.

Comstock is not a moderate.

The Washington Post disagrees.

[Young Conservative]

I'm surprised they haven't moved GA-12 yet.

I'm still waiting for SOMEONE to rate IN-09 as Likely R.

Carpetbagging only is really an issue during your first election for a seat. Once you are an incumbent you work for the constituents. His flaws that prompted the potential race for the 2016 open seat therefore are gone.

Bruh, look at the WV-02 race in 2016. Your argument is ridiculous.

Why draw attention to a race the Republican won handily?

[Young Conservative]

Crystal Ball makes 15 rating changes, 14 in favor of Democrats (AZ-08 being the other).

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/raising-the-ceiling-but-not-the-floor-on-potential-democratic-house-gains/

Yes, it makes complete sense to move a seat where the kerning come it just won a special election by less than five points against the same candidate she'll be facing in November from likely to safe.

General elections are less volatile than special elections. Savarino obviously made the right call.

[Young Conservative]

CA-48: Democrat Rachel Payne drops out to lower the likelihood of an R-vs-R runoff.  It's too late for her name to come off the ballot, but she will no longer actively campaign.  Source

Dang... it should've been somebody else. We need more people like her in congress.

The biggest problem in contemporary America is the lack of representation of Google executives in our legislature.

[Young Conservative]

LOL! What are they going to do? Hire more consultants?

The Republican establishment spent $150 million on Please Clap so he could finish 7th in Iowa or whatever. I'm quaking in my boots.

The democrats spent about a billion trying to elect a washed up, out of touch, career politician. Instead, they lost to a gaffe machine billionaire who never held elected office.

[Young Conservative]

LOL! What are they going to do? Hire more consultants?

The Republican establishment spent $150 million on Please Clap so he could finish 7th in Iowa or whatever. I'm quaking in my boots.

The democrats spent about a billion trying to elect a washed up, out of touch, career politician. Instead, they lost to a gaffe machine billionaire who never held elected office.

That proves their point, you know.

Their point was the GOP is bad at picking candidates, but it isn’t like Democrats are better.

[Young Conservative]

LOL! What are they going to do? Hire more consultants?

The Republican establishment spent $150 million on Please Clap so he could finish 7th in Iowa or whatever. I'm quaking in my boots.

The democrats spent about a billion trying to elect a washed up, out of touch, career politician. Instead, they lost to a gaffe machine billionaire who never held elected office.

That proves their point, you know.

Their point was the GOP is bad at picking candidates, but it isn’t like Democrats are better.

No, the others are correct. My point was that $30 million Adelson gave is useless because the Republican establishment has proven time and again they don't spend money effectively.

That's literally what I said your point was....and your point doesnt matter because the Democratic establishment is just as bad at picking candidates.....

[Young Conservative]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Wow.

Hmm. Interesting.

Republicans as a whole still have a net cash advantage.

[Young Conservative]

RCP made a few ratings changes today but I can’t tell what the rest were

PA-10 Toss up to Lean R
VA-10 Lean D to Toss up
FL-25 Lean R to Likely R
FL-26 Lean D to Tossup
MN-7 likely D to Lean D
NE-2 Toss up to Lean R
CA-38 Lean D to Toss up
CA-49 Lean D to Toss up

Most of these are reasonable only because the rating was too lenient to begin with. Its not that indicative of a general wave.

[Young Conservative]

Sean T at RCP shifted only ONE race to the Democrats.

Man he's getting hackish

He is been hackish since the days when he predicted that Obamacare will fail.

But it did though

[Young Conservative]

Daily Kos Elections now has senate rankings, though they are basically the same as everyone else's. Remember, DKE and DK are basically two seperate things: DK are Extreme Hacks, DKE is mainly data analysis from a normal left view, similar to RRH's analysis from the normal right.

Bad GOOD WI rating, bad Ohio rating

[Young Conservative]

I think the DKE ratings are the most Republican favored I've seen yet. 

It's amusing that DKE has the most R-leaning ratings while Fox News has the most D-leaning.

Fox wants to be able to say Democrats underperformed, DKE wants to be able to say Democrats over performed.

[Young Conservative]

https://twitter.com/meredithk27/status/1010130361781817344

Ojeda and Golden, FFs.

That’s great that these two candidates are getting some help, but I’m still waiting on NE-02.

FWIW the CPC has endorsed Kara Eastman so I wouldn't be surprised if the DCCC adds her to the red to blue list soon.

I would, this endorsement only solidifies that surprise.