2020 New York Redistricting

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/56a14294-4422-45ef-a50f-e89e69f45b01
Thoughts on this non-partisan NY CD map I made?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/56a14294-4422-45ef-a50f-e89e69f45b01
Thoughts on this non-partisan NY CD map I made?

I like it other than the Borough Park-other Jewish communities split. Ideally there would be a solely South Brooklyn seat. Like this.

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::52efeb58-18a3-465c-9f74-b98643bd5a32

Looking at that sort of arrangement gives me the thought that I should redraw the 11th and 9th to put Bensonhurst in the 9th while placing Sunset Park in the 11th.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/73e32e04-cbcd-472c-942f-6023fab6e208
Something like this.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

There are two issues that I have found with 26 seat NY fair maps, that you both brought up and I would like to see what the suggested answers are, both for diversity of opinion's sake and to see how others resolved them. These two issues make it very easy to gerry NY for the dems, but hard to make a sensible map I have found.

1) Upstate new York has to lose a CD. If you are gerrymandering, this is the 22nd or maybe even the 21st if you are doing something with the Clinton/St. Lawrence region. On a reasonable map, the seat most reasonably to be cut is the 19th. NYC is just pushing north - good if you are gerrymandering cause it can eat red turf - and upstate pushing south, exerting a squeeze. But how do you group that cut? Putting everything north of Ulster+Sullivan+Dutchess in a upstate block comes about 140k short of 8 seats. There is no easy remedy cause Ulster and Sullivan are best kept together, and both that grouping or Dutchess are both 250K+.

Looking at it a different way doesn't exactly help, cause everything north of Rockland+Westchester is about 140K overpopulated for 9 seats, and dropping Putnam still leaves it at over 40K overpopulated. A new allignment is needed.

2) There is an either-or relationship in Brooklyn+Queens. Given the necessary minority seats, the need to both prevent packing of each minority group AND prevent the dilution of other minority groups while you are preventing packing, some White regions must be used to as counterweights for the Brooklyn AA seats. There are two options: the South Brooklyn Jews+Eastern Europeans and the west Brooklyn Progressives. Given the seat count, whichever one you go for will not get a seat of its own. Whichever one is cut up will have pieces paired with Staten Island, pieces that slightly or not at all resemble the other part of the district.

#1 is definitely a tough issue. To some extent, I like Phil's solution of splitting the banks of the Hudson, but on the other hand, it does feel awkward: putting Putnam County and Albany in the same district is a poor fit. I lean towards splitting Ulster and Sullivan: my impression is that the area is less integrated and certainly less dense than Dutchess. My optimal solution would probably look something like this: https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::0bae0382-02f2-40b9-a32e-5debe7a22f67

#2 is easier for me. The Brooklyn progressives don't have enough population for their own seat and aren't compact. The ethnic whites do have enough, and are compact. Drawing a South Brooklyn seat makes all of the Brooklyn seats together and better keeps together communities of interest. I lean strongly towards the South Brooklyn Jews+Eastern Europeans seat.

My reasoning for splitting the Hudson along its two banks is simple: there are only 4 bridges crossing the Hudson between Albany and Westchester counties, reducing the amount of connectivity that the two banks have to each other. That being said, while I prefer to draw the Hudson that way, I also concede there are benefits to doing it the traditional way, so I don't preclude an ideal map from doing the latter.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The congressional map has passed the Assembly by the (maybe not needed, but safe to have) 2/3 majority, 103-45

Interesting that it's not a party-line vote?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The congressional map has passed the Assembly by the (maybe not needed, but safe to have) 2/3 majority, 103-45

Interesting that it's not a party-line vote?

State Site has yet to be updated with the exact vote transcripts, but one NO D vote I can see on twitter was Marcela Mitaynes of Brooklyn. Senate is expected to vote between 3 and 4.

Is it a matter of any importance the precise margin by which the map passes the State Senate? In terms of its likelihood of being overturned or whatnot.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This analysis was too amazing not to share.

https://twitter.com/rrhelections/status/1488946970223906816?s=21

NY-06 Safe Dem>Lean R
#CantDismissTheCurtis

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

GOP gerrymander of the Empire State
10 Trump districts. The district composed of Onondago+Madison+Oneida is also very likely to elect a Republican in a neutral year  given how more Republican that area is downballot. Monroe and Tompkins counties are cracked.
In 2014-style conditions this map could elect as many as 12 Republicans.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

GOP gerrymander of the Empire State
10 Trump districts. The district composed of Onondago+Madison+Oneida is also very likely to elect a Republican in a neutral year  given how more Republican that area is downballot. Monroe and Tompkins counties are cracked.
In 2014-style conditions this map could elect as many as 12 Republicans.

Yeah, this is a massive Dummymander. 26-0 Gillibrand in 2018.

Have Ds ever reached the sorts of baselines we see in Senate elections here, in House-level ones? In such a generalized way?
Dynamics can vary from Senate to House and elsewhere...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Good news for Democrats.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So what is the expected outcome here? Maps struck down today, but appealed and put back in place tomorrow?

More or less, Miniscule chance they aren't but Democrats already played the commission game well enough to just enact the GOP commission maps in the worst case scenario.

Basically I thought this was a possible goal of the FL GOP to get them to vote for the house maps but then it turns out Florida Democrats are just retarded and refused to support even the senate maps.

No it's just the state house dems that are stupid right?

Yeah its just them that are doing that. Actual insanity .

FL Dems gonna FL Dems.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So Democrats need to have fair maps because Democrats need to play by the rules, but Republicans are free to gerrymander all they want because they don't believe in rules, great.

Exactly, if your opposition to gerrymandering is sincere and not a political posture.

This is like a Susan Collins/Joe Manchin sort of take.

I mean obviously we should strike down Republican maps too, but if you're opposed to gerrymandering you should celebrate this ruling even if it costs Democrats a couple of seats.

No either all gerrymanders get struck down or none do, having only one party's get struck down is even more unfair than gerrymandering as a whole.

Republicans have had seats struck down too this cycle--it's not like NY is the only place where this has happened.

Yes but if Republicans are absolute f[inks] ing trash (which they are) and follow am authoritarian sociopathic piece of sh!t (which they do) then anything that would hurt them is good.

I loathe the GOP with a passion! I just still think that voter supression that hurts Republicans is still bad.

Gerrymandering isn't voter suppression, though.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Thinking about it, imo the best way to draw the Brooklyn-SI area is to do a likely D bordering on safe Staten Island seat with Latino parts of Sunset Park and a Republican Southern Brooklyn seat that also includes the area's large Chinese community.

Drawing a Republican Staten Island seat in practical terms entails splitting up this massive, predominantly Chinese section of Brooklyn which seems fairly coherent.



It's too big to fit in a Staten Island district without leaving out places like Bay Ridge which should obviously go in there, and having Staten Island avoid it requires a pretty gerrymandered shape if you still want it to take in places like Borough Park.

Imo, this is far from the worst way you could draw the area. A very logical Southern Brooklyn seat could be drawn in this way.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I think the NY map being struck down will be fair if the FL one is also being struck down.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

We probably get at least 5 Trump seats, 1 on Long Island (may or may not be Garbarino's), Malliotakis' seat, Stefanik's seat, Jacobs' seat, and a third seat that Tenney may or may not run in.

There more likely that not will be a second Trump seat in Long Island, but it's not a guarantee. At least one of Jones/Maloney/Delgado could also get a Trump seat, but all three is unlikely. The Syracuse seat will likely remain a Biden seat. And there could be a second Trump seat in the Orthodox Jewish areas of Brooklyn.

Is it possible to draw only 1 Trump seat in Long Island in a neutral map?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

We probably get at least 5 Trump seats, 1 on Long Island (may or may not be Garbarino's), Malliotakis' seat, Stefanik's seat, Jacobs' seat, and a third seat that Tenney may or may not run in.

There more likely that not will be a second Trump seat in Long Island, but it's not a guarantee. At least one of Jones/Maloney/Delgado could also get a Trump seat, but all three is unlikely. The Syracuse seat will likely remain a Biden seat. And there could be a second Trump seat in the Orthodox Jewish areas of Brooklyn.

Is it possible to draw only 1 Trump seat in Long Island in a neutral map?

Yeah, if NY-2 goes north to Huntington rather than into Nassau County, it's a Biden seat.

Interesting. I would have assumed that the geography of the area means that you likely end up with 2 Trump seats and 2 Biden seats.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

We probably get at least 5 Trump seats, 1 on Long Island (may or may not be Garbarino's), Malliotakis' seat, Stefanik's seat, Jacobs' seat, and a third seat that Tenney may or may not run in.

There more likely that not will be a second Trump seat in Long Island, but it's not a guarantee. At least one of Jones/Maloney/Delgado could also get a Trump seat, but all three is unlikely. The Syracuse seat will likely remain a Biden seat. And there could be a second Trump seat in the Orthodox Jewish areas of Brooklyn.

Is it possible to draw only 1 Trump seat in Long Island in a neutral map?

Yeah, if NY-2 goes north to Huntington rather than into Nassau County, it's a Biden seat.

Interesting. I would have assumed that the geography of the area means that you likely end up with 2 Trump seats and 2 Biden seats.

I mean Suffolk is 2 districts and it's Trump +700. One district has to vote for Biden. After it is relatively hard to make a district entirely within Nassau that votes for Trump.

Yeah it makes sense.
It just takes a bit of explaining, that's all.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The Long Island seats should be a very low priority,  they're exactly the kind of upper class, educated places that would be moving toward the Democrats moving forward (Nassau is the fifth most educated county in NY, Suffolk the 13th).

I wouldn't be surprised to see them trend to safe D by the end of the decade regardless how they're drawn.   The NY Dems shouldn't have bothered being so aggressive there.

The main impact of the court order will be the Staten Island district and the southeastern part of Upstate (17, 18, 19).   

The D gains in the State Senate in 2018 could well portend a future D trend in LI, making it hard to have a GOP-leaning CD on Long Island at all.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Did you know it is possible to draw a 30% Asian district in Southern Brooklyn?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Worth noting that any type of mandate for an Orthodox seat would be blatantly unconstitutional, and even taking religious identity into account drawing a map could be subject to a lawsuit. Although it's probably moot because any south Brooklyn Republican district would include a lot more than just Orthodox, and they aren't a Census category.

Ye that’s the issue I have with both parties. One side is basically arguing it’s not a COI at all while the other is treating it as if they’re VRA protected (even over Asian voters)

It is reasonable to VRA Orthodox Jews over  VRAing Asian voters in NYC, because in the particular case Orthodox Jews have radically different voting patterns from other New Yorkers, while with Asian voters such differences in voting patterns isn't as great.

Second, in such a lawsuit, the plaintiffs could propose a remedial map without the help of such census categories. In fact, one such map is essentially before the Court.

You could keep both South Brooklyn Chinatowns and South Brooklyn Orthodox mostly whole, together, into one district that's about 31% Asian and 50% White. Such a seat would likely be a good idea.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

That’s a moderate win for Dems though I don’t get why they did that to Buffalo.

Isn't splitting up the Buffalo metro good from a competitive seat POV?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

That’s a moderate win for Dems though I don’t get why they did that to Buffalo.

Isn't splitting up the Buffalo metro good from a competitive seat POV?

No such seat in the area exists. The chop is minor and was done to make the map more compact overall, and keep chops to an absolute minimum. Cervas does not put as much emphasis as I do on avoiding tri-chopping counties.

I was talking more about how any CD centered firmly on the Buffalo metro alone would probably be Dem. By splitting the metro in two, you likely get two competitive districts.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

That’s a moderate win for Dems though I don’t get why they did that to Buffalo.

Isn't splitting up the Buffalo metro good from a competitive seat POV?

No such seat in the area exists. The chop is minor and was done to make the map more compact overall, and keep chops to an absolute minimum. Cervas does not put as much emphasis as I do on avoiding tri-chopping counties.

I was talking more about how any CD centered firmly on the Buffalo metro alone would probably be Dem. By splitting the metro in two, you likely get two competitive districts.

Nope.

How so?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It's a pretty neutral Senate map overall, it still has a small Republican bias with the efficiency gap metric
https://twitter.com/cwarshaw/status/1526303963926118401

Gotta consider though NY has naturally bad geography for Dems. Same way a nonpartisan Texas map would have basically a 50-50 delegation

Have these people done maps in states with big anti-R geographic biases yet?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It's a pretty neutral Senate map overall, it still has a small Republican bias with the efficiency gap metric
https://twitter.com/cwarshaw/status/1526303963926118401

Gotta consider though NY has naturally bad geography for Dems. Same way a nonpartisan Texas map would have basically a 50-50 delegation

Have these people done maps in states with big anti-R geographic biases yet?

Not many states with those though! Really just New England plus Utah and Texas, plus maybe Iowa at the congressional level.

At least CA and TX both have big anti-R biases, as do most of New England. Here, there's a lot of trapped R votes that can't possibly be placed in an R-winnable district.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/qlzsu/status/1679582626791735296

This is the obvious D gerrymander move in the area, but you have to finish it up by giving Goldman Chinatown so you can justify it as keeping the Chinese community together.

How do you think those Chinese areas would vote in a D primary?