2020 New York Redistricting

[ProgressiveModerate]

The one good thing for Democrats, is that the guy who is drawing the NY maps is the same dude who drew the PA map.

Oh really? Thank god.
Ok, I take back what I said lol

So he'll be drawing what should be the final map ?

Not necessarily, as the Steuben County judge will get to actually pick the final map but will have to use this dude for consultation.  

The two questions are now,

Is Cervas biased towards Democrats or biased towards partisan fairness?.  If its the latter than a fairly natural map should take place.

If he is biased towards Democrats, how far can he skew the map?

From what I recall, there was a big emphasis based on least change in his PA map. That's partly why we ended up with the suburban fajitas outside Philly. I wonder if we'll see simillar here?

It'll be tricky though since it's harder to pick which district to actually cut upstate and by nature of population change a lot of districts will need to pretty dramatically change

I am talking about the legislative maps by the way.

It's actually really easy in NY to draw least change. Downstate barely changes, and you push Hudson Valley north. Tenney's seat gets cut but Delgado's seat becomes a Trump seat by a few points.

Oh mb. I mean his map still split Lancaster in the State Sen so prolly more just the proportionality piece.

http://jonathancervas.com/

Just by looking at his website, he def leans left based on his publications. However he seems level headed and likely to draw a map that’s overall neutral. My biggest questions regarding partisanship (assuming no dramatic shake ups) are:

If NY-01 and NY-02 stay in their current orientation?
-Is a Jewish seat created?
-Where is Staten Island attached to NYC (as the consequence of a potential Asian districts)
-Do NY-18 and NY-17 continue to be stacked or will it be East-West? (Stacked prolly means 2 Biden districts, East west prolly means a highly competitive and likely D district)
-Does NY-19 take in Broome County or redder rurals?
-How is Syracuse seat drawn? Is it attached to redder rurals to the north or placed with Ithaca or Utica? (It’ll be a Biden seat, the question is by how much?)
-Will an Ithaca and other college town based NY-23 have the potential to be competitive?

[Nyvin]

So the only two hard gerrymanders the Dems have left really are Illinois and Oregon.   Everything else is pretty mild. 

New Mexico?

I mean, that's really just 1 seat, and it's not safe D even, more just tossup or tilt D in a neutral year.

[Greedo punched first]

So the only two hard gerrymanders the Dems have left really are Illinois and Oregon.   Everything else is pretty mild. 

New Mexico?

I mean, that's really just 1 seat, and it's not safe D even, more just tossup or tilt D in a neutral year.

Isn't NM-02 still likely R despite being a Biden district?

[lfromnj]

The one good thing for Democrats, is that the guy who is drawing the NY maps is the same dude who drew the PA map.

Oh really? Thank god.
Ok, I take back what I said lol

So he'll be drawing what should be the final map ?

Not necessarily, as the Steuben County judge will get to actually pick the final map but will have to use this dude for consultation.  

The two questions are now,

Is Cervas biased towards Democrats or biased towards partisan fairness?.  If its the latter than a fairly natural map should take place.

If he is biased towards Democrats, how far can he skew the map?

From what I recall, there was a big emphasis based on least change in his PA map. That's partly why we ended up with the suburban fajitas outside Philly. I wonder if we'll see simillar here?

It'll be tricky though since it's harder to pick which district to actually cut upstate and by nature of population change a lot of districts will need to pretty dramatically change

I am talking about the legislative maps by the way.

It's actually really easy in NY to draw least change. Downstate barely changes, and you push Hudson Valley north. Tenney's seat gets cut but Delgado's seat becomes a Trump seat by a few points.

Oh mb. I mean his map still split Lancaster in the State Sen so prolly more just the proportionality piece.

There was a lot of other finagling in the state senate map. Dems got a Scrantonmander to get them 2 seats there for example so I don't think he had much influence for the senate map.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So Democrats need to have fair maps because Democrats need to play by the rules, but Republicans are free to gerrymander all they want because they don't believe in rules, great.

Exactly, if your opposition to gerrymandering is sincere and not a political posture.

This is like a Susan Collins/Joe Manchin sort of take.

[Sol]

So Democrats need to have fair maps because Democrats need to play by the rules, but Republicans are free to gerrymander all they want because they don't believe in rules, great.

Exactly, if your opposition to gerrymandering is sincere and not a political posture.

This is like a Susan Collins/Joe Manchin sort of take.

I mean obviously we should strike down Republican maps too, but if you're opposed to gerrymandering you should celebrate this ruling even if it costs Democrats a couple of seats.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/ZackFinkNews/status/1519412232463044613

There we go, finally some state D reaction.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I have an idea, and it may hurt us in some states but it's better for us honestly......

Work with GOP groups and argue to SCOTUS that only commissions and legislatures can draw maps and not special masters! This would hurt us in PA and NC but NC SC is going to flip in 2022 anyway so it really is moot. PA is likely to have a GOP governor and the court could also flip sometime in the decade.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Here is a map simillar to the one someone posted earlier but this time with a full NYC. It is 22-4. 2 of the R seats would be competitive as well as a few Dem seats. A map like this would be hard to argue against.

The Asian opportunity seat argument for NY-11 is smart

https://davesredistricting.org/join/0347f91a-b6aa-4198-aecb-fb6b924e5c81

To me by the way the justices were questioning, Garcia seems likely to find the map guilty whereas Garcia, Troutman, and Wilson seem to be leaning to leaving the map in place or at least giving the leg a second shot.

The others didn't really question much.

This map is sorta Florida style in that it's largely clean and has justifiable COIs, however, quite a few seats could fall in a bad year for Dems. However, by and large they should usually win over 20 seats when it matters.

I would say a map like this would be Dems best case scenario (Rs best case is a few posts above)

The special master designated to assist in the maps seems to lean left and talks a lot about non-majorities outcome so if a map such as this is adopted, it’d likely come somewhere from that perspective. I think that’s unlikely though.

[cinyc]

Ouch they even lost on the senate map, which even the "R hack" Stueben County judge didn't strike down. Eerily similar to Florida's 2010 case.

That is incorrect. Justice McAllister struck down the State Senate and even Assembly maps, even though nobody contested the Assembly's map.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The Democrats should just ignore this legally meritless ruling and print primary ballots for the legislature map’s district lines

[Sol]

Also really not a fan of calling a Republican South Brooklyn district a "Jewish seat" but not, say, a hipster seat with Williamsburg and Borough Park--their Jewish percentages are probably comparable!

[cinyc]

The Democrats should just ignore this legally meritless ruling and print primary ballots for the legislature map’s district lines

That's not how this works. That's not how any of this works.

The decision was actually 5-2 or 4-2-1. The Hochul appointee, Judge Troutman, ruled that the proper process to pass the maps wasn't followed, too. She dissented from the remedy, and would have given the legislature a chance to cure by passing one of the 2 IRC maps with up to a 2% difference.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So Democrats need to have fair maps because Democrats need to play by the rules, but Republicans are free to gerrymander all they want because they don't believe in rules, great.

Exactly, if your opposition to gerrymandering is sincere and not a political posture.

This is like a Susan Collins/Joe Manchin sort of take.

I mean obviously we should strike down Republican maps too, but if you're opposed to gerrymandering you should celebrate this ruling even if it costs Democrats a couple of seats.

No either all gerrymanders get struck down or none do, having only one party's get struck down is even more unfair than gerrymandering as a whole.

[Sol]

So Democrats need to have fair maps because Democrats need to play by the rules, but Republicans are free to gerrymander all they want because they don't believe in rules, great.

Exactly, if your opposition to gerrymandering is sincere and not a political posture.

This is like a Susan Collins/Joe Manchin sort of take.

I mean obviously we should strike down Republican maps too, but if you're opposed to gerrymandering you should celebrate this ruling even if it costs Democrats a couple of seats.

No either all gerrymanders get struck down or none do, having only one party's get struck down is even more unfair than gerrymandering as a whole.

Republicans have had seats struck down too this cycle--it's not like NY is the only place where this has happened.

[Greedo punched first]

So Democrats need to have fair maps because Democrats need to play by the rules, but Republicans are free to gerrymander all they want because they don't believe in rules, great.

Exactly, if your opposition to gerrymandering is sincere and not a political posture.

This is like a Susan Collins/Joe Manchin sort of take.

I mean obviously we should strike down Republican maps too, but if you're opposed to gerrymandering you should celebrate this ruling even if it costs Democrats a couple of seats.

No either all gerrymanders get struck down or none do, having only one party's get struck down is even more unfair than gerrymandering as a whole.

Republicans have had seats struck down too this cycle--it's not like NY is the only place where this has happened.

But SCOTUS will restore those seats. I bet NY courts also require a new Republican Orthodox district in Brooklyn to be drawn as well, in the best case scenario for the NYGOP.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So Democrats need to have fair maps because Democrats need to play by the rules, but Republicans are free to gerrymander all they want because they don't believe in rules, great.

Exactly, if your opposition to gerrymandering is sincere and not a political posture.

This is like a Susan Collins/Joe Manchin sort of take.

I mean obviously we should strike down Republican maps too, but if you're opposed to gerrymandering you should celebrate this ruling even if it costs Democrats a couple of seats.

No either all gerrymanders get struck down or none do, having only one party's get struck down is even more unfair than gerrymandering as a whole.

Republicans have had seats struck down too this cycle--it's not like NY is the only place where this has happened.

Yes but if Republicans are absolute f[inks] ing trash (which they are) and follow am authoritarian sociopathic piece of sh!t (which they do) then anything that would hurt them is good.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Where does this 2% concept come from? I can't find it in the redistricting law myself.

I think it's from a law the legislature passed a while back. I can't find a cite either. They might have repealed it in the interim.

Edit: It's Section 3 of the bill passed in 2012 establishing the commission:

§  3. Any amendments by the senate or assembly to a redistricting plan
    31  submitted by the independent redistricting commission, shall not  affect
    32  more  than  two  percent  of the population of any district contained in
    33  such plan.  If two or more plans for districts in the  same  legislative
    34  house or for congressional districts are submitted by the commission and
    35  voted  upon  by the legislature, such plans shall be considered individ-
    36  ually and not combined.

See Assembly bill A 9557 (2012) here:
http://public.leginfo.state.ny.us/navigate.cgi?NVDTO:

Does this mean that any map has to be similar to "Names" or "Letters"?

[Sol]

Thinking about it, imo the best way to draw the Brooklyn-SI area is to do a likely D bordering on safe Staten Island seat with Latino parts of Sunset Park and a Republican Southern Brooklyn seat that also includes the area's large Chinese community.

Drawing a Republican Staten Island seat in practical terms entails splitting up this massive, predominantly Chinese section of Brooklyn which seems fairly coherent.



It's too big to fit in a Staten Island district without leaving out places like Bay Ridge which should obviously go in there, and having Staten Island avoid it requires a pretty gerrymandered shape if you still want it to take in places like Borough Park.

[Sol]

So Democrats need to have fair maps because Democrats need to play by the rules, but Republicans are free to gerrymander all they want because they don't believe in rules, great.

Exactly, if your opposition to gerrymandering is sincere and not a political posture.

This is like a Susan Collins/Joe Manchin sort of take.

I mean obviously we should strike down Republican maps too, but if you're opposed to gerrymandering you should celebrate this ruling even if it costs Democrats a couple of seats.

No either all gerrymanders get struck down or none do, having only one party's get struck down is even more unfair than gerrymandering as a whole.

Republicans have had seats struck down too this cycle--it's not like NY is the only place where this has happened.

Yes but if Republicans are absolute f[inks] ing trash (which they are) and follow am authoritarian sociopathic piece of sh!t (which they do) then anything that would hurt them is good.

I loathe the GOP with a passion! I just still think that voter supression that hurts Republicans is still bad.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So Democrats need to have fair maps because Democrats need to play by the rules, but Republicans are free to gerrymander all they want because they don't believe in rules, great.

Exactly, if your opposition to gerrymandering is sincere and not a political posture.

This is like a Susan Collins/Joe Manchin sort of take.

I mean obviously we should strike down Republican maps too, but if you're opposed to gerrymandering you should celebrate this ruling even if it costs Democrats a couple of seats.

No either all gerrymanders get struck down or none do, having only one party's get struck down is even more unfair than gerrymandering as a whole.

Republicans have had seats struck down too this cycle--it's not like NY is the only place where this has happened.

Yes but if Republicans are absolute f[inks] ing trash (which they are) and follow am authoritarian sociopathic piece of sh!t (which they do) then anything that would hurt them is good.

I loathe the GOP with a passion! I just still think that voter supression that hurts Republicans is still bad.

Gerrymandering isn't voter suppression, though.

[Gass3268]

The Democrats should just ignore this legally meritless ruling and print primary ballots for the legislature map’s district lines

Make the Judges enforce their own ruling!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Thinking about it, imo the best way to draw the Brooklyn-SI area is to do a likely D bordering on safe Staten Island seat with Latino parts of Sunset Park and a Republican Southern Brooklyn seat that also includes the area's large Chinese community.

Drawing a Republican Staten Island seat in practical terms entails splitting up this massive, predominantly Chinese section of Brooklyn which seems fairly coherent.



It's too big to fit in a Staten Island district without leaving out places like Bay Ridge which should obviously go in there, and having Staten Island avoid it requires a pretty gerrymandered shape if you still want it to take in places like Borough Park.

Imo, this is far from the worst way you could draw the area. A very logical Southern Brooklyn seat could be drawn in this way.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

The Democrats should just ignore this legally meritless ruling and print primary ballots for the legislature map’s district lines

Make the Judges enforce their own ruling!

I wish I could find the Chanel Oberlin clip when she says she's ignoring the verdict lol

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/TheDurhamReport/status/1519393769652690945

lol

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1512835149767008258

We stilll got this atleast?