2020 New York Redistricting

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Queen Kathy, do something!!!!!!!!

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

So the only two hard gerrymanders the Dems have left really are Illinois and Oregon.   Everything else is pretty mild. 

New Mexico?

I mean, that's really just 1 seat, and it's not safe D even, more just tossup or tilt D in a neutral year.

Isn't NM-02 still likely R despite being a Biden district?

I wouldn't say so. It went from Trump +12 to Biden +6 (a leftward shift of +18) and Herrell won by 8 in 2020, albeit as a challenger to an incumbent. I would still say she's favored in a good year for the GOP (like this year), but I wouldn't be surprised to see her lose.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

So much for winning the house back in 2024. Thanks Cuomo!

[Unelectable Bystander]

Lol at Wasserman coping about an overturned gerrymander. I thought he said the environment is far more consequential for determining the house?

[ProgressiveModerate]

As a native NYer this is my fair map:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/257fbff3-b355-429a-9b94-53cd61676dcc

6-20 on 2020 numbers. 7-19 in 2016. A lot of competative districts that lean both left and right. I know there's some controversial decisions in here, but the more I think about it, the more attatching Staten Island to Lower Manhattan may be best for the rest of the map.

[GALeftist]

@ all cons ITT: the issue is not that this gerrymander was overturned per se but that the effect of court intervention has been wildly asymmetric. New York is 26 seats, Maryland is 8. North Carolina and Kansas hardly make up for that.

[ProgressiveModerate]

@ all cons ITT: the issue is not that this gerrymander was overturned per se but that the effect of court intervention has been wildly asymmetric. New York is 26 seats, Maryland is 8. North Carolina and Kansas hardly make up for that.

Pennsylvania as well though that was half because Rs were trying to pass a gerry and half because there was impasse. Ultimately though Dems got a better map than what they would've gotten.

The big question is what the Florida Court does. They're essentially dealing with a similar issue in a similar sized state with similar constitutional provisions.

Also there are still ongoing lawsuits in states like Texas though more on the racial grounds. We'll see where those end up.

It is good though that gerrymandering is becoming more unnacceptable.

This is also partially a failure on Dems part to get full commissions on the ballots in Ohio and Florida which would've gone a pretty long way in equalizing things. Theoretically both states could have a mid decade redraw.

[Pericles]

What are the chances Democrats still have the supermajority in 2023? Could they then legislate a new map? Same question if they regain the supermajority in a later year.

[lfromnj]

What are the chances Democrats still have the supermajority in 2023? Could they then legislate a new map? Same question if they regain the supermajority in a later year.

Right now the court seems to be 4 Conservatives 1 swing and 2 liberals, and they all voted accordingly. So it's really up when the court flips, IIRC DiFiore is leaving in late 2026 so around for 2028.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I think the NY map being struck down will be fair if the FL one is also being struck down.

[wbrocks67]

I think the NY map being struck down will be fair if the FL one is also being struck down.

Doesn't seem likely that the FL will be struck down at this point. GOP continues to win in every state, so ridiculous.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think the NY map being struck down will be fair if the FL one is also being struck down.

Doesn't seem likely that the FL will be struck down at this point. GOP continues to win in every state, so ridiculous.

Uh not really true. Dems have had some good redistricting victories in states like PA, MI, NJ, OR, CT, CA, and NC (though NC may not last long)

[Torie]

Who was it who suggested that just because justices have partisan affiliations, to assume that they will go full hack on partisan issues when you get high enough up the judicial food chain is a mistake?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Who was it who suggested that just because justices have partisan affiliations, to assume that they will go full hack on partisan issues when you get high enough up the judicial food chain is a mistake?

Did you see the accolades I gave you earlier?

[lfromnj]

Who was it who suggested that just because justices have partisan affiliations, to assume that they will go full hack on partisan issues when you get high enough up the judicial food chain is a mistake?

Did you see the accolades I gave you earlier?

https://twitter.com/magajacobrobben/status/1519059711554994180

This guy deserves more.

[Sol]

@ all cons ITT: the issue is not that this gerrymander was overturned per se but that the effect of court intervention has been wildly asymmetric. New York is 26 seats, Maryland is 8. North Carolina and Kansas hardly make up for that.

Yeah, but in practice how many seats are really flipping here? The NY gerrymander has 4 Trump 2020 seats; a fair map probably has 6 (2 in LI, 1 in NYC, 1 in the upper Hudson Valley/Mohawk Valley/Catskills, 1 between Syracuse and Rochester, and 1 in Western NY).

It may result in a few more flips if this is a wave year--especially in Long Island and the Hudson Valley--but that probably nets Republicans only 3-4 seats, and that's generous and most of them could be easily brought back next time.

Meanwhile Democrats are netting 3-4 seats in all likelihood out of North Carolina--that's not too different. And of course a seat out of Kansas, etc. There's Pennsylvania too which netted Democrats some seats they would have lost otherwise. Basically evens it up.

In any case bean counting shouldn't matter--if Democrats want to win over constituencies where they've been struggling the way to do that is to govern and campaign well, same as Republicans.

I'm not a conservative.

Edit: meant 2 wrote 1

[Torie]

Who was it who suggested that just because justices have partisan affiliations, to assume that they will go full hack on partisan issues when you get high enough up the judicial food chain is a mistake?

Did you see the accolades I gave you earlier?

I did not, but I did now, and thank you. i am a hopeless idealist. But you know what? One person can make a difference. It just takes some willingness to get out there.

[Tekken_Guy]

We probably get at least 5 Trump seats, 1 on Long Island (may or may not be Garbarino's), Malliotakis' seat, Stefanik's seat, Jacobs' seat, and a third seat that Tenney may or may not run in.

There more likely that not will be a second Trump seat in Long Island, but it's not a guarantee. At least one of Jones/Maloney/Delgado could also get a Trump seat, but all three is unlikely. The Syracuse seat will likely remain a Biden seat. And there could be a second Trump seat in the Orthodox Jewish areas of Brooklyn.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

We probably get at least 5 Trump seats, 1 on Long Island (may or may not be Garbarino's), Malliotakis' seat, Stefanik's seat, Jacobs' seat, and a third seat that Tenney may or may not run in.

There more likely that not will be a second Trump seat in Long Island, but it's not a guarantee. At least one of Jones/Maloney/Delgado could also get a Trump seat, but all three is unlikely. The Syracuse seat will likely remain a Biden seat. And there could be a second Trump seat in the Orthodox Jewish areas of Brooklyn.

Is it possible to draw only 1 Trump seat in Long Island in a neutral map?

[lfromnj]

We probably get at least 5 Trump seats, 1 on Long Island (may or may not be Garbarino's), Malliotakis' seat, Stefanik's seat, Jacobs' seat, and a third seat that Tenney may or may not run in.

There more likely that not will be a second Trump seat in Long Island, but it's not a guarantee. At least one of Jones/Maloney/Delgado could also get a Trump seat, but all three is unlikely. The Syracuse seat will likely remain a Biden seat. And there could be a second Trump seat in the Orthodox Jewish areas of Brooklyn.

Is it possible to draw only 1 Trump seat in Long Island in a neutral map?

I mean if you just draw with solely county lines it's pretty much a guaruntee. Keeping the current split of NY03/NY02 which although is very reasonable, is pretty much the only way to get 2 Trump seats outside of gerrymandering. Suffolk County was only Trump by a few hundred votes .

[Tekken_Guy]

We probably get at least 5 Trump seats, 1 on Long Island (may or may not be Garbarino's), Malliotakis' seat, Stefanik's seat, Jacobs' seat, and a third seat that Tenney may or may not run in.

There more likely that not will be a second Trump seat in Long Island, but it's not a guarantee. At least one of Jones/Maloney/Delgado could also get a Trump seat, but all three is unlikely. The Syracuse seat will likely remain a Biden seat. And there could be a second Trump seat in the Orthodox Jewish areas of Brooklyn.

Is it possible to draw only 1 Trump seat in Long Island in a neutral map?

Yeah, if NY-2 goes north to Huntington rather than into Nassau County, it's a Biden seat.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

We probably get at least 5 Trump seats, 1 on Long Island (may or may not be Garbarino's), Malliotakis' seat, Stefanik's seat, Jacobs' seat, and a third seat that Tenney may or may not run in.

There more likely that not will be a second Trump seat in Long Island, but it's not a guarantee. At least one of Jones/Maloney/Delgado could also get a Trump seat, but all three is unlikely. The Syracuse seat will likely remain a Biden seat. And there could be a second Trump seat in the Orthodox Jewish areas of Brooklyn.

Is it possible to draw only 1 Trump seat in Long Island in a neutral map?

Yeah, if NY-2 goes north to Huntington rather than into Nassau County, it's a Biden seat.

Interesting. I would have assumed that the geography of the area means that you likely end up with 2 Trump seats and 2 Biden seats.

[lfromnj]

We probably get at least 5 Trump seats, 1 on Long Island (may or may not be Garbarino's), Malliotakis' seat, Stefanik's seat, Jacobs' seat, and a third seat that Tenney may or may not run in.

There more likely that not will be a second Trump seat in Long Island, but it's not a guarantee. At least one of Jones/Maloney/Delgado could also get a Trump seat, but all three is unlikely. The Syracuse seat will likely remain a Biden seat. And there could be a second Trump seat in the Orthodox Jewish areas of Brooklyn.

Is it possible to draw only 1 Trump seat in Long Island in a neutral map?

Yeah, if NY-2 goes north to Huntington rather than into Nassau County, it's a Biden seat.

Interesting. I would have assumed that the geography of the area means that you likely end up with 2 Trump seats and 2 Biden seats.

I mean Suffolk is 2 districts and it's Trump +700. One district has to vote for Biden. After it is relatively hard to make a district entirely within Nassau that votes for Trump.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

We probably get at least 5 Trump seats, 1 on Long Island (may or may not be Garbarino's), Malliotakis' seat, Stefanik's seat, Jacobs' seat, and a third seat that Tenney may or may not run in.

There more likely that not will be a second Trump seat in Long Island, but it's not a guarantee. At least one of Jones/Maloney/Delgado could also get a Trump seat, but all three is unlikely. The Syracuse seat will likely remain a Biden seat. And there could be a second Trump seat in the Orthodox Jewish areas of Brooklyn.

Is it possible to draw only 1 Trump seat in Long Island in a neutral map?

Yeah, if NY-2 goes north to Huntington rather than into Nassau County, it's a Biden seat.

Interesting. I would have assumed that the geography of the area means that you likely end up with 2 Trump seats and 2 Biden seats.

I mean Suffolk is 2 districts and it's Trump +700. One district has to vote for Biden. After it is relatively hard to make a district entirely within Nassau that votes for Trump.

Yeah it makes sense.
It just takes a bit of explaining, that's all.

[Nyvin]

The Long Island seats should be a very low priority,  they're exactly the kind of upper class, educated places that would be moving toward the Democrats moving forward (Nassau is the fifth most educated county in NY, Suffolk the 13th).

I wouldn't be surprised to see them trend to safe D by the end of the decade regardless how they're drawn.   The NY Dems shouldn't have bothered being so aggressive there.

The main impact of the court order will be the Staten Island district and the southeastern part of Upstate (17, 18, 19).