2020 New York Redistricting

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Except there are rules about how the lines should be drawn (cinyc listed them above). Is the Dem argument that those rules only apply to the commission and not to the legislature?

We do not yet know, but I would not be surprised if it does cause the map flagrantly violates the fairness and in some areas geographic sensibility provisions. Justification could only come through a failure of jurisdiction. Other emergency bodies in other states usually have the power to ignore everything that came before them - usually in the name of fairness, minority opportunity, and most importantly, speed - so if the Leg is the De Facto emergency authority then New Yorkers should define a new and better law to strip it of this loophole.

Are you agreeing that that is the Dem argument, and that you think it might actually be successful, with the Dems knowing the court, because otherwise the Dems with such a brazenly lawless map, are at once reckless and stupid.

On this one, I think the Dems may win the battle but lose the war, because this will be a textbook example of a party gaming the system, and going lawless, and giving the finger to the voters, and that story will be told by the Pubs for a very long time. When one party totally controls all 3 branches of government, in this day and age, the rule of law ceases to be something one can rely upon. So to survive, it's back to pay to play.

To add to this zero-sum analysis:

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1489663746704392192?s=20&t=_sZpBb4t2cTUwu_q...

"OMG THIS PERSON IS A HYPOCRITE" type "gotchas" aren't really the epic burns people seem to think they are, especially when in regards to someone who isn't an elected official and has no reason to be popular or consistent in the public eye.

The Republicans are obviously going to litigate this stuff on pure partisanship and no consistent principles, and thus we should as well.

[Mr.Phips]

On this one, I think the Dems may win the battle but lose the war, because this will be a textbook example of a party gaming the system, and going lawless, and giving the finger to the voters, and that story will be told by the Pubs for a very long time.

I am skeptical of any party paying a price for bad behavior, but I agree that Dems will win the battle and lose the war over redistricting, because I don't think Congressional Democrats will ever pass an effective anti-gerrymandering law now that the IL and NY delegations will be dependent on gerrymanders. I fear this Congress was the window for change to happen and it's slammed shut for decades.

Once Texas flips, Republicans may change their view on gerrymandering, but I don't think it will change what their justices on the SC think and our government isn't set up for Republicans to partner with good government Dems to make a majority.

Because Republicans totally paid a price for all of their gerrymanders in 2011.

[Torie]

On this one, I think the Dems may win the battle but lose the war, because this will be a textbook example of a party gaming the system, and going lawless, and giving the finger to the voters, and that story will be told by the Pubs for a very long time.

I am skeptical of any party paying a price for bad behavior, but I agree that Dems will win the battle and lose the war over redistricting, because I don't think Congressional Democrats will ever pass an effective anti-gerrymandering law now that the IL and NY delegations will be dependent on gerrymanders. I fear this Congress was the window for change to happen and it's slammed shut for decades.

Once Texas flips, Republicans may change their view on gerrymandering, but I don't think it will change what their justices on the SC think and our government isn't set up for Republicans to partner with good government Dems to make a majority.

I fear that you are right. Redistricting brings out the worst in people, and particularly politicians that in general (with some exceptions of course) I find to be rather unpleasant  people in any event, which is  understandable given the indignities one needs to go through to get elected. I read somewhere Schumer commanded Dem candidates to spend inordinate hours dialing for dollars. Who in their right mind who is remotely normal would rather do that than have a root canal without anesthetic?

The hope here left in Pandora's box is the partisan coalitions change enough to upset the apple cart, and make the lines stale for gerrymandering purposes.* And there is some hope of that because my impression is that both parties' coalitions are quite unstable at the moment. Trump can take considerable credit for that, along with the re-oligopolization** of the economy (e.g. Amazon). 

*One factlet that has happened while we have both been here, is that Muon2's congressional district in 2011 was drawn by the Dems to be a Pub vote sink. In 2018 it fell to the Dems. The shift was that dramatic.

**Which can be expected to give private sector unions a new lease on life perhaps.

[Torie]

Does anyone see a chance the map stands? I can’t

Uh, are you the slightest bit familiar with the New York Court of Appeals?

Nope… enlighten me

Every member was appointed by Cuomo except one who was by Hochul and thus is stacked with some of the biggest hacks you can imagine. It might be the single most partisan state high court in the country.

What do you base this on other than surmise? I am not saying you are wrong, but just because of who appoints

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Does anyone see a chance the map stands? I can’t

Uh, are you the slightest bit familiar with the New York Court of Appeals?

Nope… enlighten me

Every member was appointed by Cuomo except one who was by Hochul and thus is stacked with some of the biggest hacks you can imagine. It might be the single most partisan state high court in the country.

What do you base this on other than surmise? I am not saying you are wrong, but just because of who appoints

6/7 appointed by a total machine hack (and the last one also from a hack) in a state dominated by machine hack politics.

[Torie]

Does anyone see a chance the map stands? I can’t

Uh, are you the slightest bit familiar with the New York Court of Appeals?

Nope… enlighten me

Every member was appointed by Cuomo except one who was by Hochul and thus is stacked with some of the biggest hacks you can imagine. It might be the single most partisan state high court in the country.

What do you base this on other than surmise? I am not saying you are wrong, but just because of who appoints

6/7 appointed by a total machine hack (and the last one also from a hack) in a state dominated by machine hack politics.

Thank you. I don't think either of the governors are machine hacks actually (one was a creep obviously), and Cuomo apparently appointed a Pub per some post above, and well whatever. We shall see. The best argument that the court is hack city is that if the Dems did not have inside info, how could they have had the chutzpah to be this brazen? Color me paranoid, but maybe they have a back channel through the clerks to get feedback.

[Smash255]

Jackie Gordon who ran in NY-2 in 2020 and initially planning to run there again has announced she is running in NY-1.  She lives in Copiague and is in the new 1st district.

[cinyc]

Stueben County Supreme Court Judge Patrick F. McAllister has been assigned the redistricting case, according to NYS’s eCourts system.

Trellis.law says McAllister is a registered Republican.

https://trellis.law/judge/patrick.f.mcallister

[Nyvin]

Considering all the Republican judges in NC and OH (minus O'Connor) have ruled in favor of keeping the gerrymandered maps that were made in their states, I find it extremely difficult to believe the  Appeals Court in NY, with 7 dem judges, will strike down the maps the legislature made.

Stranger things have happened, but history isn't on the Republicans side for this.  They need to convince 4 of the 7 Democratic Judges to strike down a Democratic made map.  

Can you really believe if North Carolina or Ohio had 7 Republican Judges the Democrats would've had any chance in hell?  Probably not.

[lfromnj]

Considering all the Republican judges in NC and OH (minus O'Connor) have ruled in favor of keeping the gerrymandered maps that were made in their states, I find it extremely difficult to believe the  Appeals Court in NY, with 7 dem judges, will strike down the maps the legislature made.

Stranger things have happened, but history isn't on the Republicans side for this.  They need to convince 4 of the 7 Democratic Judges to strike down a Democratic made map.  

Can you really believe if North Carolina or Ohio had 7 Republican Judges the Democrats would've had any chance in hell?  Probably not.

It's not going any different but NC is different from Ohio/NY. NC is very much streching a clause rather than more written criteria in Ohio/NY.

[GregTheGreat657]

What do you guys think of this map: https://davesredistricting.org/join/e335e306-b2f3-4164-b71e-c84455f4d36e

[Oryxslayer]

Lower Court hearing in Steuben is scheduled for February 24.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

GOP gerrymander of the Empire State
10 Trump districts. The district composed of Onondago+Madison+Oneida is also very likely to elect a Republican in a neutral year  given how more Republican that area is downballot. Monroe and Tompkins counties are cracked.
In 2014-style conditions this map could elect as many as 12 Republicans.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1491795714174685187?s=20&t=5JQjWnOBVV0...

[Torie]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1491795714174685187?s=20&t=5JQjWnOBVV0...

Wasserman, that is a total distortion of what the court said, which involved an evaluation of likelihood of prevailing on the merits. Even if it were what it said, it is in the context of the court then proceeding to evaluate the map, not that the map was being upheld as legal. It is also BS that there is not enough time. You just set back the election calendar, the way the NC high court just did. In any event, what would be analogous is the court denying a stay of the use of the map that was passed, and allowing an election to proceed under it, while the case is adjudicated. But the stay is not well taken if the odds are high that the map will be tossed after the election, or at some point during the process. Then the disruption will be worse, as all the incumbents end up with new seats all over again. But yeah, stall was part of the Dem playbook here. Idiot.

[Tekken_Guy]

GOP gerrymander of the Empire State
10 Trump districts. The district composed of Onondago+Madison+Oneida is also very likely to elect a Republican in a neutral year  given how more Republican that area is downballot. Monroe and Tompkins counties are cracked.
In 2014-style conditions this map could elect as many as 12 Republicans.

Yeah, this is a massive Dummymander. 26-0 Gillibrand in 2018.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

GOP gerrymander of the Empire State
10 Trump districts. The district composed of Onondago+Madison+Oneida is also very likely to elect a Republican in a neutral year  given how more Republican that area is downballot. Monroe and Tompkins counties are cracked.
In 2014-style conditions this map could elect as many as 12 Republicans.

Yeah, this is a massive Dummymander. 26-0 Gillibrand in 2018.

Have Ds ever reached the sorts of baselines we see in Senate elections here, in House-level ones? In such a generalized way?
Dynamics can vary from Senate to House and elsewhere...

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/JonCampbellNY/status/1499417008697483264?s=20&t=hVYk9u6f...

https://twitter.com/JonCampbellNY/status/1499416657080598530?s=20&t=hVYk9u6f...

Initial hearing is happening today on the NY maps. That said, this looks like it will end up as the second time Purcell in effect is applied to redistricting cases after Alabama slammed the door shut. Also reminder that NY calls lower courts 'supreme' and the highest one 'appeals.'

[lfromnj]

One thing I realized with NY is even if a map gets struck down I think Democrats can always revert to the arm twisting R commision proposal.

[Torie]

The judge mouthing off without knowing the law regarding keeping in place the map this year was subsequently heavily briefed, including pointing out having a federal election in 2023 is illegal as in Unconstitutional. So I tend to think remote the judge will rule the map is illegal, but wait for 2024. Alabama is not apposite, because that was an unsettled federal law issue before federal courts, not a state law issue before a state court.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/JeffWice/status/1509598742483283982

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/JeffWice/status/1509598742483283982

Would be very surprising in my eyes if the plaintiffs don't get a favorable result from a judge they 'shopped around' for, at which point it is then appealed upwards to the higher courts.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/GOPRedistrict/status/1509625321762570245

As to be expected, appeal in a few hours. and should be reversed by tomorow.

[wbrocks67]

So what is the expected outcome here? Maps struck down today, but appealed and put back in place tomorrow?

[lfromnj]

So what is the expected outcome here? Maps struck down today, but appealed and put back in place tomorrow?

More or less, Miniscule chance they aren't but Democrats already played the commission game well enough to just enact the GOP commission maps in the worst case scenario.