2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

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Any idea when Guam straw poll results come in?

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Some "results" from Guam (21% of precincts partially reporting):

Biden 54.86%
Trump 42.91%

https://gec.guam.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/2020ge-results-unofficial.pdf

Guam had over 30,000 voters in 2016, so I'm not going  read too much into 3500 votes.

You shouldn't read much into it even if those were the final results. It's Guam. Still think it's interesting though.

Thanks for tracking that down!

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https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1323757221784641537?s=20

I'm doing much better than I was four years ago. Still voted Biden.

Yup. I’m doing better thanks in no part to Trump.

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https://twitter.com/IntelDoge/status/1323758292322144257?s=20

I think it was a test; polls don't close there until 6:00 PM EST.

I also think it's a test because there is no way JoJo did not get a single vote there. Johnson got 3.6% there in 2016. She should be getting at least 1%... dozens of votes.

Indiana is historically one of the Libertarians’ better states too.

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Probably a stupid question but asking it because I haven't been able to pay as much attention today as I'd wanted to: when will we likely see the Presidency called? Sometime today? Tomorrow? Friday? December?

What's the likely timetable from here on out, & how will potential court cases & recounts factor into said timetable?

Spitballing here, I’d say we’ll have a much better idea by Friday.

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I know it will change, but I love the irony that Biden is currently doing worse than Hillary in terms of the popular vote and yet appears to be on his way to victory.

More importantly, though, it probably means a lot of the outstanding vote is going to Biden generally, not just in the swing states.

What are you talking about?  Biden is outperforming Hillary in the NPV.

Barely, and it's unclear he will get the gigantic CA late ballot boost that Clinton got because CA is currently tightening with each update.  Trump's coalition is much less efficient this time.  Would be wild if Biden wins PA or AZ by more than 2.

With "every update"? CA has barely counted any significant votes since last night

Notably, Kern and El Dorado have flipped back to being Republican. I think that CA’s usual pattern might not be accurate this time because CA can now start to process mail-in/drop-off ballots before Election Day, so a lot of those super-Dem numbers we saw at the tail end of counting may have already been accounted for.

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GOP not coming to Trump's side...

https://twitter.com/IanSams/status/1324109632760123395

https://twitter.com/JNicholsonInDC/status/1324124024386015233

You just hate to see it

Also, for those looking at the CA margin, do so with caution.

I know it will change, but I love the irony that Biden is currently doing worse than Hillary in terms of the popular vote and yet appears to be on his way to victory.

More importantly, though, it probably means a lot of the outstanding vote is going to Biden generally, not just in the swing states.

What are you talking about?  Biden is outperforming Hillary in the NPV.

Barely, and it's unclear he will get the gigantic CA late ballot boost that Clinton got because CA is currently tightening with each update.  Trump's coalition is much less efficient this time.  Would be wild if Biden wins PA or AZ by more than 2.

With "every update"? CA has barely counted any significant votes since last night

Notably, Kern and El Dorado have flipped back to being Republican. I think that CA’s usual pattern might not be accurate this time because CA can now start to process mail-in/drop-off ballots before Election Day, so a lot of those super-Dem numbers we saw at the tail end of counting may have already been accounted for.

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https://twitter.com/MSignorile/status/1324195275452407808

This is literally a Veep plot point.

The last four years are straight out of Veep. Not to mention Nevada being close.

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So does Gross actually still have a shot?

Hard to say, but I think the networks are making the right move by not calling the AK races.

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Kalawao County, HI results:

Biden 23
Trump 1

The island of Niihau gave Trump 43 votes and none to anyone else.

This is what I come to Atlas for. Thanks for this and the link for the PR referendum results!

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Kalawao County, HI results:

Biden 23
Trump 1

County sweep for Biden! Lol.

I bet that one Trump voter is really shy. Lmao.

I will say that I’m shocked that there’s enough appendages to count all of the votes in Kalawao.

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https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1324527167775019008

Fitting number of Trump votes.

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From 538 blog:


NATE SILVER
NOV. 5, 8:42 PM
This is interesting. The Democratic Senate candidate in Alaska, Al Gross, is claiming he’ll win once all ballots are counted. (He currently trails by 31 points.) I’m not sure I buy that but … if no mail votes have been counted in Alaska yet, the results we do have so far could be significantly more friendly to Republicans than the final result. If so, that would presumably also affect the race for the presidency (where Biden trails by a similar margin to Gross) and the House (where Alyse Galvin is running a little better than Biden or Gross). It’s a long shot, but you might not want to totally sleep on this race.

Is Natey boy a lurker here?

Huh, there is this user on here with the name of FiveyFox...

Years ago, back when he was still with 538, there was an occasional poster here who I suspected might be Harry Enten based on his writing style.

Wouldn’t shock me if there’s some pundit on here. Maybe Enten, maybe Silver. I’m pretty sure that they’ve cited Atlas before.

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If Biden wins every uncalled state besides Alaska, then I matched my 2012 prediction and again, only missed Florida.

I got the margins off but then again, so did nearly everyone.

I think I would only be missing Texas and ME-02.

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The Donald went down to Georgia

He was looking for an election to steal

He was in a bind because he was way behind

He was willing to make a deal

When he came across this old man sawin' on a fiddle and playin' it hot

And the Donald jumped upon a hickory stump and said "Boy, let me tell you what."

"I guess you didn't know it, but I'm a fiddle player, too

And if you'd care to take a dare I'll make a bet with you

Now you play a pretty good fiddle, boy, but give the Donald his due

I'll bet a fiddle of gold against your vote 'cause I think I'm better than you."

The man said, "My name's Jimmy, and it might be a sin

But I'll take your bet, and you're gonna regret, 'cause I'm the best there's ever been."

...

The Donald bowed his head because he knew that he'd been beat.

And he laid that golden fiddle on the ground at Jimmy’s feet.

Jimmy said, "Donald, just come on back if you ever wanna try again,

'Cause I done told you once, you son of a bitch, I'm the best there's ever been."

That’s a work of art.

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Don’t worry, my usual PEI avatar will be back. But now? It’s time to celebrate making Jimmy Carter’s home state Atlas red again!

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https://twitter.com/BoKnowsNews/status/1324764594917773315

Victory speech?

Yes and No, I expect.

He'll say he's starting the starting the transition so they can "hit the ground running", and that they're acting on the apparent win. At the same time, they're going to "abide by the legal process" and "make sure every vote counts". He will also throw a little shade at  Trump's desperate lawsuits, and a lot of shade at Trump's attacks on our elections.

I hope the networks call the race before his speech.

I hope the networks call the race before Trump nukes Harrisburg.

*Philly

Do you really think Trump knows that Harrisburg exists, let alone knows it’s the capital?

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While Georgia is on our minds, we shouldn’t forget about Pennsylvania:

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Well I just donated $10 each to Ossoff and Warnock.

Just to clarify: as a foreigner, I am in no way allowed to donate to a US senate campaign, right?

No.

Unless you send the money to a US citizen who donates it for you.

Pretty sure isn’t kosher either.

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My dad(and his friends) and sister are convinced that the vote in Miami and the Rio Grande are rigged/fake.

If you consider how overtly racist Trump's first campaign was, and how much this year's campaign was focused around the pandemic and the economy - not really great ground for him to turn up the racist rhetoric - it's actually not too surprising to me that Trump did better in those areas. I am surprised by the *scale* of the movement, but not the direction.

Yeah, Miami makes sense given the socialist fear mongering targeted towards Cubans (and the map showing that Trump blew out Cuban neighborhoods). Not sure about the Rio Grande Valley. Those shifts are nuts. I wouldn’t call it fraudulent without credible evidence though.

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Ian Miles Cheong having a normal one

https://twitter.com/stillgray/status/1324907255335063552

Had to see if he was being sarcastic or not. Nope. He’s just another MAGA troll. Funny how a lot of these folks use their middle names. News flash: it just makes you sound like a murderer.

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Assuming current numbers hold up (Biden wins GA, NV, PA; Trump wins AK and NC; Biden wins 306-232):
1. This is the first election since 1992 in which GA voted Dem while FL voted GOP.
2. This is only the third election since 1948 in which AZ voted Dem.
3. This is the first time since ME and NE began allocating EVs by congressional district that both states were split. (NE alone was split in 2008 and ME alone was split in 2016).
4. I'm sure there are other firsts or first-in-a-whiles.

Building off number 3, from what I can tell, this will be the first time since 1896 that two states will split their electoral votes without considering faithless electors. In 1896, it was Kentucky and California.

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A rare non-AZ/GA/NV/PA post:

Even though the state of California hasn't finished counting its votes (and likely won't for quite a while), one of the bigger (both in a literal and a statistical sense) county flips of the election might be Inyo County.  



By area, Inyo is the second-largest in CA and ninth-largest nationwide. This is Death Valley country; it was a Trump +13 county in 2016 (though the almost 9.5% third-party showing makes it more difficult to analyze swings).

NYT currently has the county at >98% reporting and Biden leading by 49.1-48.5 (4,495-4,436).  It's a super tight margin, but if it holds, Biden would be the first Democrat to win here since 1964 and only the second since 1940.  And even in the event that it holds for Trump, it would be at least a ten to eleven point Democratic swing.  

Image and information source: Wikipedia

I wrote a few posts about it in this thread. I’m rather puzzled by it myself. Inyo doesn’t have any ski resorts.

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A rare non-AZ/GA/NV/PA post:

Even though the state of California hasn't finished counting its votes (and likely won't for quite a while), one of the bigger (both in a literal and a statistical sense) county flips of the election might be Inyo County.  



By area, Inyo is the second-largest in CA and ninth-largest nationwide. This is Death Valley country; it was a Trump +13 county in 2016 (though the almost 9.5% third-party showing makes it more difficult to analyze swings).

NYT currently has the county at >98% reporting and Biden leading by 49.1-48.5 (4,495-4,436).  It's a super tight margin, but if it holds, Biden would be the first Democrat to win here since 1964 and only the second since 1940.  And even in the event that it holds for Trump, it would be at least a ten to eleven point Democratic swing.  

Image and information source: Wikipedia

I wrote a few posts about it in this thread. I’m rather puzzled by it myself. Inyo doesn’t have any ski resorts.

But it seems touristy. Corrolation?

It’s funny you should say that. As I was struggling to fall asleep last night/early morning, I did consider that. It’s definitely possible given that Death Valley is mostly in Inyo County, but I don’t know how much of their economy is based on tourism.

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Let the slaughtering begin.

Trump is going to win again

RIP BIDEN.

Enjoy the retirement home Joe!

OOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH  YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!!!!

This is why Trump will win in November.

What if I told you... that 2016 was Trump's floor?

Game over dems.

Wow, Trump is destroying Biden!!! Go Trump!

Trump is winning big!

Looks like Trump is making a big rebound. Very scared.

Watch Atlas be super disappointed when at best, it is the 278 map and NE-02.
The landslide is not happening.
413 is a pipe dream.
Florida won’t flip because of Miami-Dade, North Carolina was always a wash, Georgia Republicans will ensure there is no coveted GA flip, IA/OH/TX were never on the table to begin with, and AZ will be close but will narrowly go to Trump.

If literally any one of these red states (except AZ because I’m not sure on that one) or some other fool’s gold state like MT/AK goes to Biden and he wins the election, I will change my avatar to “Idiotic Doomer” for the next four years.

There is probably a much higher chance Trump wins one of the three MI/WI/PA than Biden winning TX, by the way.
Quote me on this if I am wrong in a month, I dare you.

If he wins it'll be under 300

The race is tightening. As of right now, I think Trump narrowly wins PA.

As I said a long time ago. Georgia is not going blue in any statewide race period.

It’s a 52/48 state but it holds hard and fast to that. It’s not going blue. Period.

This is looking more and more like 2016.

I’m calling it right now.
The early voting data is just so terrible for the Democrats, I don’t see a path for Biden at this point.
The fact he is getting crushed in Florida on this weekend day shows that deplorables are indeed a silent majority.
I take no joy in this projection, and I sincerely hope our country gets what it deserves (I now am actively cheering for Xi Jinping on the global stage, they are better than we are) But it appears the American people really are as moronic and useless as I warned you all about.

I project Donald Trump will win the 2020 presidential election and will continue to be the 45th president of the United States.

Tag me if I’m wrong, because I won’t be.
There is no path for Biden, nor for America.

Trump.

Don't kid yourself.

National polls are getting ever closer.

Practically all swing states have Trump gaining ground, and are now within margin of error.

Trump is going to win this thing. My confidence is growing ever stronger.

Trump's approval rating is surging!!!!

This is 2016 all over again!!!!

GAME OVER LIBS!

The new Marist state polls have made me the most sure I ever was that Trump is going to win.

I think I'm gonna cry

I'm already crying. Have been since the Selzer poll.

It's over for Joe. Look at this last minute Trump surge in approval.



Everybody is ignoring this but Trump is surging.

Trump is going to win.

I'm literally sobbing right now.

GET READY FOR THE SLAUGHTERING