TN-SEN: Return of the Bredi

[IceSpear]

By the way, the first senate debate between Bredesen and Blackburn takes place tonight at 6 pm.

I saw the last half of that, and Bredesen definitely did a good job presenting himself as an independent minded person who would represent the interests of Tennessee rather than his party, in contrast to Blackburn.  Blackburn is an attractive woman though and I think Bredesen going too negative against her could backfire.   And Bredesen's support for abortion could sink him, but I don't know if Blackburn is making that an issue in the campaign.

Doug Jones was unapologetically pro-choice, and he won.  Tennessee has two major urban cores (Nashville and Memphis) that are much more populous than Alabama's major urban core (Birmingam).

Jones only won because he was able to gain majority support outside Birmingham (which Hillary Clinton won) and ran the board with cities Huntsville, Mobile, Montgomery, Tuscaloosa, and Auburn. Bredesen would have to run the board with places like Knoxville, Chattanooga, Clarksville, and Murfreesboro.

In fact, the main reason why Jones won is because Moore was a pedophile.

This is the most annoying, constantly propagated myth of that campaign. Multiple people on the Jones campaign have said that the allegations didn't budge their internal numbers, while Trump's rally in the Panhandle shifted the race a few points towards Moore.

The only poll to show the race close before the allegations was FOX, which also said Jones would win by 10 right before the election. So I'll take the actual empirical evidence plus common sense over the word of Jones' campaign, which has all the incentive in the world to spin things that way.

[IceSpear]

So much for the theory that Taylor Swift was an alt right Aryan princess which is why she never talked about politics, lol. Anyway...

Just looking more and more likely that Motormouth Marsha sends Bredesen to the Thompson/Bayh/Allen/Lingle/Kerrey/Pawlenty/Strickland retirement home/support group.

It's happening. Time to prepare Bredesen's initiation rites.

[IceSpear]

Mike Beebe for AR-SEN 2020?

I'm sure it'll end up differently than all those other times because reasons.

[IceSpear]

It looks like the race is becoming more nationalized, which is helping Blackburn. I think she might even win by double digits at this point.

I've thought she would win by double digits for a year.

And I really hope the "Taylor Swift bump" posts are parody.

[IceSpear]

Voter registration nationwide and in Tennessee spiked after T Swift's Instagram post:

https://abc7.com/entertainment/voting-registrations-spike-after-taylor-swifts-political-post/4442341/

The Taylor Swift bump is real and will have more of an impact than Kavanaugh. White women will vote Democratic in droves.

This is a joke I hope

I actually agree with him. Swift's fan base is predominately young and female, ripe for the Democratic base. Idk if this will push Bredesen to victory in Tennessee, but she definitely did the Democrats a massive favor all across the nation.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Speaker Nancy Pelosi will only have Taylor Swift to thank.

I'm dead serious, my man.

Well she hasn’t helped much given that Bredesen is down by 14 points in the NYTimes poll. Only 120 responses so far, but still not looking good.

I literally said: "IDK if this will push Bredesen to victory in Tennessee". Read.

Hey, did you get that from me?

[IceSpear]

Do (enough) voters in TN not think Marsha is too nuts to be in the Senate??  Especially compared to a highly respected 2 term Governor?

If anyone had told me (prior to this year) that Blackburn would be in the Senate one day- I would have laughed out loud.  I completely do not understand- even a Republican state- electing her to the Senate??

That's why I think Bredesen still has a shot, despite the poll.  (Surely Bredesen has a treasure trove of footage on Blackburn, for attack ads... to show that she is definitely outside of the mainstream.. that would peel out enough moderate republicans?)

In a word: Yes.

Is that really so surprising? States/districts far less Republican than Tennessee have elected nuts even worse than Blackburn in the past. The pussygrabber won this state by 26 points. A literal pedophile only lost in Alabama by 1 point and won 91% of Republicans (see sig.)

[IceSpear]

Lying Bredesen betrayed by his staff.  Veritable catches his staff saying he just saying he was just saying that he would support Kavanaugh to get elected. He would not actually vote for him.  A staff members says Tennessee voters are ignorant.  One says he hates Trump.  They say he will be a good Democrat, if elected.

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2018/10/okeefe-strikes-again-video-captures-tn-dem-candidate-phil-bredesen-in-classic-bait-and-switch/

THE HYPOCRITE IS CAUGHT. 

One of the staffers says this is how Doug Jones ran in Alabama.

This is the type of garbage most of you Democrats posting here support.

Bredesen:  What a Despicable Man.  A LIAR THROUGH AND THROUGH. 

LOL. Bredesen wasn't benefiting from supporting Kavanaugh anyway so O'Keefe wasted his time. All he proved is that the successful Tennessee governor doesn't really think the guy would make a good Justice. Most of America agrees.

A majority of Tennessee voters disagree though. And they're the only ones that matter here.

[IceSpear]

Lying Bredesen betrayed by his staff.  Veritable catches his staff saying he just saying he was just saying that he would support Kavanaugh to get elected. He would not actually vote for him.  A staff members says Tennessee voters are ignorant.  One says he hates Trump.  They say he will be a good Democrat, if elected.

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2018/10/okeefe-strikes-again-video-captures-tn-dem-candidate-phil-bredesen-in-classic-bait-and-switch/

THE HYPOCRITE IS CAUGHT. 

One of the staffers says this is how Doug Jones ran in Alabama.

This is the type of garbage most of you Democrats posting here support.

Bredesen:  What a Despicable Man.  A LIAR THROUGH AND THROUGH. 

Lol what dumb staffers.

But this isn't really anything new. You're just looking for reasons to dislike a moderate respectable man because your viewpoints are very far to the right on every issue. It's OK to be a far right hack, but we get it by now Yankee.

Why could he not have been honest about Kavanaugh?  Why did he lie about what his dealings with Trump would be like.  His whole campaign has been one of deception.  He really has disgraced himself.

I would guess I am no more of a political hack than you are.

I don’t know, I don’t think DTC would support a pedophile

[IceSpear]

There is still a lot of time in this race.  The positive Kavanaugh effect for Republicans is at its peak- it will only retract from here (the question is how much).  Bredesen has been leading much of the race- if Kavanaugh effect comes back down to earth- this is not over. (especially with Blackburn as the candidate- which many moderates are uncomfortable with... even if they like Kavanaugh).

It was never really a Kavanaugh effect. It is just partisanship and if it is happening now, it was always going to happen eventually, once election day got close, voters started to actually pay attention, and Blackburn's name ID went up outside of her own district. Like Santa Claus, once the magic is lost, it doesn't come back.

Yeah, pretty much. Once Tennessee voters started paying attention and remembered Bredesen was a Demoncrat, he was screwed. But I think Kavanaugh made his collapse more severe and quicker than it otherwise would've been.

[IceSpear]

I think you are whistling by the graveyard. 

Could be wrong, but I think it is more a case of "this Blue Dog don't hunt no more."

I don't see a whole lot of difference here as compared to, for example, TN-04 in 2010. Which had nothing to do with Kavanaugh... And everything to do with Partisanship...

Lincoln Davis, the Dem incumbent, was a good ole boy Blue Dog who all the rural folk in middle Tenessee were very happy with... until they weren't...

Here is a funny quote from a newspaper article at the time:

http://archive.knoxnews.com/news/4th-district-house-candidates-get-dirty-television-ads-from-outside-interest-groups-heat-up-davis-d--358412541.html/

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This article is from October 19... Yes, later in October than we are currently...

The final actual margin was not even remotely "somewhere in between." It was an a 57.1% - 38.6% ruralstomping. And he was a good ole boy even up to mid-October!!!

What happened? Partisanship, the same thing that is happening in TN now.

Great post.

This post/article should be required reading for anyone freaking out over House race polls that are within the margin of error and go heavily against the conventional wisdom about the district's partisanship (two examples off the top of my head, FL-27 and WV-03.)

[IceSpear]

That article seems to indicate that neither party really has a good idea what's going on in the Senate. I have to wonder in what universe Nevada and Arizona are "tilted toward the Republicans", Florida is leaning toward the Republicans, Missouri is locked up for the Republicans, but Tennessee is "still a real race." That sounds like a red wave taking place everywhere except Tennessee, which experiences a blue tsunami. Forgive me if that seems a bit implausible.

Alternatively, we can ignore articles that are plainly just DSCC/NRSC spin plsnted for NYT to run

[IceSpear]

https://twitter.com/McCormickJohn/status/1055154854266580993

Perhaps reports of Bredesen's demise were premature.

Yeah, it clearly means that he's ahead by about 2-3% again ...

Nah, clearly he's ahead by double digits again.

[IceSpear]

https://twitter.com/radleybalko/status/1055591329567293440

It will be interesting to see how moderate Republicans vote in TN... with a Moderate Dem and pretty far Right Repub on the ballot??

See my sig. And Blackburn isn't even a pedophile.

[IceSpear]

You guys seriously underestimate how many self-described "Reasonable™" RINO Tom-type Republicans/"moderates"/"Independents" there are in Tennessee who would vote for their good ol' "moderate" former governor rather than the "shrill extremist" any time. This race is still very much competitive.

Are we really? It's not like anyone expects Blackburn to win by 20+ points. She's already destined to way underperform Trump and the vast majority of Tennessee Republicans, so that's baked into the analysis already.

Hopefully you get over your PTSD of deep red states electing Democrats once Heitkamp and Bredesen (and maybe even a couple others) lose.

[IceSpear]

You guys seriously underestimate how many self-described "Reasonable™" RINO Tom-type Republicans/"moderates"/"Independents" there are in Tennessee who would vote for their good ol' "moderate" former governor rather than the "shrill extremist" any time. This race is still very much competitive.

Most recent polls have shown Blackburn over 50%. I find it hard to believe that she will fall from that at this point.

A new one also has her at 44%.

Multiple high quality polls > a single random uni poll

[IceSpear]

https://twitter.com/chucklane1/status/1058894977126817792?s=21

Yikes

Well, some random guy on Twitter said it, so it must be true.

[IceSpear]

https://twitter.com/chucklane1/status/1058894977126817792?s=21

Yikes

Well, some random guy on Twitter said it, so it must be true.

Writer for the Washington Post?

Opinion columnist for the Washington Post. It wouldn't be hard to find opinion columnists on Twitter discussing the impending red wave.

[IceSpear]

Of course Blackburn's still favored to win, but there's still a couple of (garbagy) public polls having it tied and random chatter about internal polls showing it close which mirror the public behavior of the campaigns. Is it that hard to believe all of this is happening at once?

Well let’s take into account that Pew had TN as the most white evangelical state in 2014 - 52% of its total population. And that study also showed that over three times as many Gen X/baby boomer TN residents were white evangelicals than millennials and younger millenials were. So the voting electorate given age turnout differences is probably gonna be at least 60% white evangelical in 2 days.

White evangelicals nationally voted about 80-84% for a thrice married pussy grabbing New Yorker simply cuz of the magic R next to his name. 80% of white evangelicals in the state directly below TN voted for Roy Moore, an accused pedophile who was a notoriously weak candidate even prior to the allegations (he won by a parsley 4 points against a Democrat in 2012 - with Obama on the ballot).

If Blackburn simply wins 80% of whites evanglicals in her state, she’s at 48% of the total share of the electorate without a single voter from the 40% of Tennessee voters that aren’t white evangelicals. If she gets just a tiny 15% of those folks, she’s at 54% total.

Now I know some people love pointing out that “Bredesen was a beloved Governor way back when!” well gubernatorials even today aren’t stongly reflective of the federal leanings of a state (let alone in 2006). Phil Scott as a Republican won his state easily in 2016 despite being in Vermont and Jim Justice also won his state easily in 2016 despite having a D next to his name. Voters are far, far less partisan even today in their gubernatorial races compared to their federal races. And how these voters felt in 2006 of all years is especially less partisan.

There’s no magic solution for Bredesen to beat these fundamentals. If some people just took off their Pom poms and Democratic Party cheerleading for two seconds they’d see this.

Great post Timmy! And you didn't even mention that Blackburn is way ahead in the polling average and at 80%+ odds on 538.

It is sad to see what this thread (and many others) has devolved into. Nothing but this:



This flagrant Dem hackery must cease and desist at once. We will be getting Sen. Blackburn.

[IceSpear]

I’m far from a Democratic hack and I still think this race is a Toss-up. If there’s a Democratic tidal wave like everyone here seems to think, it will hit pretty much every state. There’s a lot of uncertainty in this race, and I’m certainly not going to make the mistake of trusting the same people who unironically told me that AL-SEN 2017 was Safe R, sorry. Could Blackburn win by a lot? Absolutely, but if she does, there’s no way Democrats are holding states like MO or IN, winning MT/WV by double digits, or making TX competitive, etc., and more likely that the Democratic "wave" will be a "ripple" instead. Senate race outcomes are highly correlated with one another, they don’t occur in a vacuum.

No need to trust Atlas posters, trust the high quality polls which all give Blackburn a comfortable lead. And Republicans tend to overperform the polls in Tennessee anyway. And as for Alabama, didn't you predict the race would be MO-Sen 2012 redux? So you were just as off as I was there.

And as Timmy said, Tennessee is far more Republican than Missouri and Indiana. In fact, Blackburn winning by mid to high single digits while McCaskill and Donnelly are in squeakers would actually perfectly fit Trump's margins in those states.

[IceSpear]

I’m far from a Democratic hack and I still think this race is a Toss-up. If there’s a Democratic tidal wave like everyone here seems to think, it will hit pretty much every state. There’s a lot of uncertainty in this race, and I’m certainly not going to make the mistake of trusting the same people who unironically told me that AL-SEN 2017 was Safe R, sorry. Could Blackburn win by a lot? Absolutely, but if she does, there’s no way Democrats are holding states like MO or IN, winning MT/WV by double digits, or making TX competitive, etc., and more likely that the Democratic "wave" will be a "ripple" instead. Senate race outcomes are highly correlated with one another, they don’t occur in a vacuum.

No need to trust Atlas posters, trust the high quality polls which all give Blackburn a comfortable lead. And Republicans tend to overperform the polls in Tennessee anyway. And as for Alabama, didn't you predict the race would be MO-Sen 2012 redux? So you were just as off as I was there.

And as Timmy said, Tennessee is far more Republican than Missouri and Indiana. In fact, Blackburn winning by mid to high single digits while McCaskill and Donnelly are in squeakers would actually perfectly fit Trump's margins in those states.

Senator Roy Moore agrees with this post. "Alabama is too Republican to ever elect a Democrat!"

Dude, you thought Heller would win during a Democratic tsunami, LOL.

Anyway, is Blackburn a pedophile? I must have missed that.

[IceSpear]

Senator Roy Moore agrees with this post. "Alabama is too Republican to ever elect a Democrat!"

I take it you didn’t want to read my post earlier on the subject and try to respond to it so you went with this one sentence false analogy.

Not surprising that the same guy who thinks Ojeda will win also thinks Bredesen will win. You people are obsessed with rural-evangelical whites voting Democrat despite the fact that they hate 80% 100% of what the Party stands for LOL.

The Democratic Party doesn't stand for Welfare For Whites.

[IceSpear]

The one thing that gives me hope for Bredesen... is I still go back to not being able to imagine Marsha Blackburn being elected to Senate

You're letting your liberal bias cloud your objectivity. A majority of Tennessee voters are perfectly fine with Marsha Blackburn being elected to the Senate. They just voted for the pussygrabber by 28 points, and she wins in a landslide in her district consistently (yes, the district is more Republican than Tennessee as a whole, but still.)

[IceSpear]

Well, if Blackburn is such a solid bet to win, why is Trump in Tennessee to prop her up?

Trump also went to Michigan, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and Mississippi. Does that mean those races are competitive?

From what I can tell, Trump is going practically everywhere. He's going to be wasting his time a day before the election propping up Jim Renacci, lol.

[IceSpear]

Me and Timmy tried to tell you guys, but you wouldn't listen...

Put down the pom poms next time.

[IceSpear]

Me and Timmy tried to tell you guys, but you wouldn't listen...

Put down the pom poms next time.

The math just wasn’t there. Southern white evangelicals are too strong. But they didn’t listen...

Forgive them Timmy, they know not what they do...the pom poms are too loud.