TN-SEN: Return of the Bredi

[Gass3268]

https://www.instagram.com/p/BpkN7A-FN0B/?utm_source=ig_web_options_share_sheet

Not that it really matters, but Taylor Swift posted this on Instagram. Taylor > Kanye confirmed at the very least.

I'm not totally sure, but is this her and her mom on the picture ?

Yes

Nice.

Btw: Where does a Taylor Swift vote ? Did she vote early at some rural precinct or something ? Or by mail ?

Pretty sure here primary residence is in Nashville proper.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

https://www.instagram.com/p/BpkN7A-FN0B/?utm_source=ig_web_options_share_sheet

Not that it really matters, but Taylor Swift posted this on Instagram. Taylor > Kanye confirmed at the very least.

I think that I'm in love with Taylor Swift.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

For people too lazy to clink link:

Lean R ---> Likely D

[Comrade Funk]

https://www.instagram.com/p/BpkN7A-FN0B/?utm_source=ig_web_options_share_sheet

Not that it really matters, but Taylor Swift posted this on Instagram. Taylor > Kanye confirmed at the very least.

I think that I'm in love with Taylor Swift.

You aren't the first nor the last.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Considering that TN-SEN seems not to be competitive in public polls and just in terms of the fact that it should be extremely tough for a Dem to win there, it seems to nonetheless be getting a pretty big amount of independent expenditures from both sides. Maybe in part that is just a reflection of the fact that all these groups have more money than can be spent in states like North Dakota, but they also seem to think that it is closer than most of the people here seem to think (including me).

[Tender Branson]

Considering that TN-SEN seems not to be competitive in public polls and just in terms of the fact that it should be extremely tough for a Dem to win there, it seems to nonetheless be getting a pretty big amount of independent expenditures from both sides. Maybe in part that is just a reflection of the fact that all these groups have more money than can be spent in states like North Dakota, but they also seem to think that it is closer than most of the people here seem to think (including me).

No, it's because both parties see a tight race on the ground. That's why they are pouring a lot of $$$ into the race. It's a delicate situation and Blackburn can't shake off the Phil. Not to mention that Taylor Swift will win this thing for Bredesen. Look what she did there ? I always knew that Blackburn was in trouble. Are you ready for it ?

[SCNCmod]

Taylor Swift need to send out an "Affect 1 Voter" tweet on Sunday or Monday... telling all of her followers to affect just 1 vote on election day...

Convince 1 friend or family member not planning to vote-to go vote (in any state).  

Considering she has 84 Million followers- she could really affect some races nationwide. Taylor Swift is #5 Most Followed... Behind 1) Katy Perry, 2) Justin Bieber, 3) Obama, 4) Rihanna.

[tallguy23]

For people too lazy to clink link:

Swift's family are likely country club Republicans who are disgusted by the Trump takeover of the GOP. I know quite a few people like this (some of whom even voted for Trump) who are voting Dem this year.

[SCNCmod]

IF (and its a big IF) the race in TN is indeed much closer than the latest polls have indicated... where do you think the polling models are off?

[I Can Now Die Happy]

Blackburn will win by closer to +20 than closer to +lowsingledigits

[MT Treasurer]

You guys seriously underestimate how many self-described "Reasonable™" RINO Tom-type Republicans/"moderates"/"Independents" there are in Tennessee who would vote for their good ol' "moderate" former governor rather than the "shrill extremist" any time. This race is still very much competitive.

[Calthrina950]

You guys seriously underestimate how many self-described "Reasonable™" RINO Tom-type Republicans/"moderates"/"Independents" there are in Tennessee who would vote for their good ol' "moderate" former governor rather than the "shrill extremist" any time. This race is still very much competitive.

Most recent polls have shown Blackburn over 50%. I find it hard to believe that she will fall from that at this point.

[wbrocks67]

You guys seriously underestimate how many self-described "Reasonable™" RINO Tom-type Republicans/"moderates"/"Independents" there are in Tennessee who would vote for their good ol' "moderate" former governor rather than the "shrill extremist" any time. This race is still very much competitive.

Most recent polls have shown Blackburn over 50%. I find it hard to believe that she will fall from that at this point.

A new one also has her at 44%.

[IceSpear]

You guys seriously underestimate how many self-described "Reasonable™" RINO Tom-type Republicans/"moderates"/"Independents" there are in Tennessee who would vote for their good ol' "moderate" former governor rather than the "shrill extremist" any time. This race is still very much competitive.

Are we really? It's not like anyone expects Blackburn to win by 20+ points. She's already destined to way underperform Trump and the vast majority of Tennessee Republicans, so that's baked into the analysis already.

Hopefully you get over your PTSD of deep red states electing Democrats once Heitkamp and Bredesen (and maybe even a couple others) lose.

[IceSpear]

You guys seriously underestimate how many self-described "Reasonable™" RINO Tom-type Republicans/"moderates"/"Independents" there are in Tennessee who would vote for their good ol' "moderate" former governor rather than the "shrill extremist" any time. This race is still very much competitive.

Most recent polls have shown Blackburn over 50%. I find it hard to believe that she will fall from that at this point.

A new one also has her at 44%.

Multiple high quality polls > a single random uni poll

[wbrocks67]

You guys seriously underestimate how many self-described "Reasonable™" RINO Tom-type Republicans/"moderates"/"Independents" there are in Tennessee who would vote for their good ol' "moderate" former governor rather than the "shrill extremist" any time. This race is still very much competitive.

Most recent polls have shown Blackburn over 50%. I find it hard to believe that she will fall from that at this point.

A new one also has her at 44%.

Multiple high quality polls > a single random uni poll

And another dropped overnight with them tied at 48%.

The EV makes things interesting too.

Look, if Blackburn wins, I won't be surprised. It's an R state that overcame even Bredesen's good favorability and good will. However, if Bredesen wins, I also won't be surprised, since Blackburn is not well-liked and Bredesen has built up that good will as a moderate.

[musicblind]

You guys seriously underestimate how many self-described "Reasonable™" RINO Tom-type Republicans/"moderates"/"Independents" there are in Tennessee who would vote for their good ol' "moderate" former governor rather than the "shrill extremist" any time. This race is still very much competitive.

Most recent polls have shown Blackburn over 50%. I find it hard to believe that she will fall from that at this point.

A new one also has her at 44%.

Multiple high quality polls > a single random uni poll

Now it's two polls in a row that have them tied. One at 44% and one at 48%.

That doesn't mean those polls are more or less accurate than less recent polls, but it does make things more interesting to watch on election night.

A Bredesen win would be a shocker (I know I'd be floored) but I don't think it's impossible.

[MT Treasurer]

Polling has been very unreliable and contradictory this year, no one should be "shocked" if Bredesen wins this race (or if Espy wins in MS, for that matter), especially if the Democratic tidal wave everyone is predicting is real.

[JG]

Polling has been very unreliable and contradictory this year, no one should be "shocked" if Bredesen wins this race (or if Espy wins in MS, for that matter), especially if the Democratic tidal wave everyone is predicting is real.

If Blackburn leads by mid-single digits (which is what the polling average shows), isn't it absolutely par of the course to have some polls showing her tied with Bredesen considering the margin of error and others showing her leading by high single digits? How is it contradictory?

[Calthrina950]

Polling has been very unreliable and contradictory this year, no one should be "shocked" if Bredesen wins this race (or if Espy wins in MS, for that matter), especially if the Democratic tidal wave everyone is predicting is real.

If Blackburn leads by mid-single digits (which is what the polling average shows), isn't it absolutely par of the course to have some polls showing her tied with Bredesen considering the margin of error and others showing her leading by high single digits? How is it contradictory?

Exactly. Bar a massive polling error, Blackburn is set to win, and only a major Democratic wave, I think, could push Bredesen into office. And that is not happening, not to the extent that many on here think.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I have a really hard time seeing Bredesen winning. But... it is notable that outside groups/Superpacs continue to spend millions in TN, whereas they are not spending in TX.

[wbrocks67]

I have a really hard time seeing Bredesen winning. But... it is notable that outside groups/Superpacs continue to spend millions in TN, whereas they are not spending in TX.

Well, I also don't think they want to spend in TX because A) they don't want Beto to be seen as having the national cavalry come in for him (it's not a good look for him in terms of being "independent") and B) he has more than enough $$$ to fight for himself

[Ebsy]

https://twitter.com/chucklane1/status/1058894977126817792?s=21

Yikes

[libertpaulian]

https://twitter.com/chucklane1/status/1058894977126817792?s=21

Yikes

I think we dissected that poll a while back, haha.

[KingSweden]

https://twitter.com/chucklane1/status/1058894977126817792?s=21

Yikes

I want to throw reason out of the window and go reverse NYC Millenial Whatever so bad