TN-SEN: Return of the Bredi

[Thank you for being a friend...]

It's the sleeper Senate race of Tennessee.  The last Democratic wave midterm had a competitive race there between Bob Corker (who won and is now retiring) and Harold Ford, Jr.  There was an infamous ad that implied a white girl was having sex with Harold Ford, Jr (who is black) and Corker won, but it was close.  This time around the Democrats are running a very popular former Governor who is white.  It's not likely that Phil Bredesen can win it, but there's a small chance.

[IceSpear]

The NRA goes after Bredesen for using his 2002 ranking of A instead of hois current D rating.

https://freebeacon.com/politics/nra-demands-tennessee-dem-retract-ad-featuring-old-rating/

I think Bredesen has finally made the strategic mistake that will finally bring him down.  He would have been better for him to have stayed away from the issue or explained his current differences with the NRA rather than misstating his current ranking.  This merely emphasizes the weasel he as become. It opens him for attacks in other areas.

Since my wife has ordered me to plan to move to middle Tennessee next year and become a Tennessee Yankee, l look forward to Bredesen’s political demise.  

Just curious, are there any Democrats you like or would support? Or are you a partisan Republican? Bredesen is someone I would think could appeal to Republicans on some level.

(not hitting you for potentially being partisan, since I fully admit I'm a partisan Democrat)

He supported Roy Moore, so he'd support literally anything with an (R) next to its name. So he represents 90% of Republicans very well.

[Sir Mohamed]

It's the sleeper Senate race of Tennessee.  The last Democratic wave midterm had a competitive race there between Bob Corker (who won and is now retiring) and Harold Ford, Jr.  There was an infamous ad that implied a white girl was having sex with Harold Ford, Jr (who is black) and Corker won, but it was close.  This time around the Democrats are running a very popular former Governor who is white.  It's not likely that Phil Bredesen can win it, but there's a small chance.

He is more likely to win than O'Rourke at this point. Bredesen actually led some polls, O'Rourke just led one by two points.

[TML]

Based on what I've heard, the relative lack of national coverage for this race is Bredesen's preferred strategy. He has stated that if this race turns into a D vs R issue as opposed to him vs. his opponent, that would increase his likelihood of losing.

While I understand where Bredesen is coming from, and while I am thrilled that most polls have him ahead of his opponent, I am worried that if he fails to adequately respond to his opponent's attacks, he could end up like Evan Bayh in 2016.

[tmthforu94]

It's not part of the Democratic Senate majority strategy. If they've won Tennessee, there will be a lot bigger things the media will be talking about on election night and in the days after. Similar IMO to how few realized how competitive Obama was in Indiana until he won it.

[UWS]

The second senate debate between Bredesen and Blackburn will take place in Knoxville. I guess it could give an advantage for Blackburn with a more conservative audience in a county that Trump won by 24 percentage points in 2016 and that is more urban than the Wilson County (where the Cumberland University, the location of their first round took place).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knox_County,_Tennessee#Government

[Bidenworth2020]

The second senate debate between Bredesen and Blackburn will take place in Knoxville. I guess it could give an advantage for Blackburn with a more conservative audience in a county that Trump won by 24 percentage points in 2016 and that is more urban than the Wilson County (where the Cumberland University, the location of their first round took place).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knox_County,_Tennessee#Government

it also voted for breeds twice dude.

[Pollster]

Strong attack ad from Bredesen.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Strong attack ad from Bredesen.

SWAMPSCUM

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

By the way, the first senate debate between Bredesen and Blackburn takes place tonight at 6 pm.

I saw the last half of that, and Bredesen definitely did a good job presenting himself as an independent minded person who would represent the interests of Tennessee rather than his party, in contrast to Blackburn.  Blackburn is an attractive woman though and I think Bredesen going too negative against her could backfire.   And Bredesen's support for abortion could sink him, but I don't know if Blackburn is making that an issue in the campaign.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Strong attack ad from Bredesen.

Oh he taking off the gloves and running to the right.

[libertpaulian]

By the way, the first senate debate between Bredesen and Blackburn takes place tonight at 6 pm.

I saw the last half of that, and Bredesen definitely did a good job presenting himself as an independent minded person who would represent the interests of Tennessee rather than his party, in contrast to Blackburn.  Blackburn is an attractive woman though and I think Bredesen going too negative against her could backfire.   And Bredesen's support for abortion could sink him, but I don't know if Blackburn is making that an issue in the campaign.

Doug Jones was unapologetically pro-choice, and he won.  Tennessee has two major urban cores (Nashville and Memphis) that are much more populous than Alabama's major urban core (Birmingam).

[Beet]

By the way, the first senate debate between Bredesen and Blackburn takes place tonight at 6 pm.

I saw the last half of that, and Bredesen definitely did a good job presenting himself as an independent minded person who would represent the interests of Tennessee rather than his party, in contrast to Blackburn.  Blackburn is an attractive woman though and I think Bredesen going too negative against her could backfire.   And Bredesen's support for abortion could sink him, but I don't know if Blackburn is making that an issue in the campaign.

Doug Jones was unapologetically pro-choice, and he won.  Tennessee has two major urban cores (Nashville and Memphis) that are much more populous than Alabama's major urban core (Birmingam).

Jones only won because he was able to gain majority support outside Birmingham (which Hillary Clinton won) and ran the board with cities Huntsville, Mobile, Montgomery, Tuscaloosa, and Auburn. Bredesen would have to run the board with places like Knoxville, Chattanooga, Clarksville, and Murfreesboro.

[UWS]

By the way, the first senate debate between Bredesen and Blackburn takes place tonight at 6 pm.

I saw the last half of that, and Bredesen definitely did a good job presenting himself as an independent minded person who would represent the interests of Tennessee rather than his party, in contrast to Blackburn.  Blackburn is an attractive woman though and I think Bredesen going too negative against her could backfire.   And Bredesen's support for abortion could sink him, but I don't know if Blackburn is making that an issue in the campaign.

Doug Jones was unapologetically pro-choice, and he won.  Tennessee has two major urban cores (Nashville and Memphis) that are much more populous than Alabama's major urban core (Birmingam).

Jones only won because he was able to gain majority support outside Birmingham (which Hillary Clinton won) and ran the board with cities Huntsville, Mobile, Montgomery, Tuscaloosa, and Auburn. Bredesen would have to run the board with places like Knoxville, Chattanooga, Clarksville, and Murfreesboro.

In fact, the main reason why Jones won is because Moore was a pedophile. Meanwhile, Blackburn doesn't have that problem.

[Doimper]

By the way, the first senate debate between Bredesen and Blackburn takes place tonight at 6 pm.

I saw the last half of that, and Bredesen definitely did a good job presenting himself as an independent minded person who would represent the interests of Tennessee rather than his party, in contrast to Blackburn.  Blackburn is an attractive woman though and I think Bredesen going too negative against her could backfire.   And Bredesen's support for abortion could sink him, but I don't know if Blackburn is making that an issue in the campaign.

Doug Jones was unapologetically pro-choice, and he won.  Tennessee has two major urban cores (Nashville and Memphis) that are much more populous than Alabama's major urban core (Birmingam).

Jones only won because he was able to gain majority support outside Birmingham (which Hillary Clinton won) and ran the board with cities Huntsville, Mobile, Montgomery, Tuscaloosa, and Auburn. Bredesen would have to run the board with places like Knoxville, Chattanooga, Clarksville, and Murfreesboro.

In fact, the main reason why Jones won is because Moore was a pedophile.

This is the most annoying, constantly propagated myth of that campaign. Multiple people on the Jones campaign have said that the allegations didn't budge their internal numbers, while Trump's rally in the Panhandle shifted the race a few points towards Moore.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

By the way, the first senate debate between Bredesen and Blackburn takes place tonight at 6 pm.

I saw the last half of that, and Bredesen definitely did a good job presenting himself as an independent minded person who would represent the interests of Tennessee rather than his party, in contrast to Blackburn.  Blackburn is an attractive woman though and I think Bredesen going too negative against her could backfire.   And Bredesen's support for abortion could sink him, but I don't know if Blackburn is making that an issue in the campaign.

Doug Jones was unapologetically pro-choice, and he won.  Tennessee has two major urban cores (Nashville and Memphis) that are much more populous than Alabama's major urban core (Birmingam).

Jones only won because he was able to gain majority support outside Birmingham (which Hillary Clinton won) and ran the board with cities Huntsville, Mobile, Montgomery, Tuscaloosa, and Auburn. Bredesen would have to run the board with places like Knoxville, Chattanooga, Clarksville, and Murfreesboro.

In fact, the main reason why Jones won is because Moore was a pedophile.

This is the most annoying, constantly propagated myth of that campaign. Multiple people on the Jones campaign have said that the allegations didn't budge their internal numbers, while Trump's rally in the Panhandle shifted the race a few points towards Moore.

I think we should throw the Jones internal numbers that showed no effect on the polls when the allegations surfaced into the average. Other polls did show substantial effect on the race when the allegations surfaced. Put it together, and it likely had a smaller effect than that some of the most swingy polls displayed, but still a real effect.

[Antonio the Sixth]

By the way, the first senate debate between Bredesen and Blackburn takes place tonight at 6 pm.

I saw the last half of that, and Bredesen definitely did a good job presenting himself as an independent minded person who would represent the interests of Tennessee rather than his party, in contrast to Blackburn.  Blackburn is an attractive woman though and I think Bredesen going too negative against her could backfire.   And Bredesen's support for abortion could sink him, but I don't know if Blackburn is making that an issue in the campaign.

Doug Jones was unapologetically pro-choice, and he won.  Tennessee has two major urban cores (Nashville and Memphis) that are much more populous than Alabama's major urban core (Birmingam).

Jones only won because he was able to gain majority support outside Birmingham (which Hillary Clinton won) and ran the board with cities Huntsville, Mobile, Montgomery, Tuscaloosa, and Auburn. Bredesen would have to run the board with places like Knoxville, Chattanooga, Clarksville, and Murfreesboro.

In fact, the main reason why Jones won is because Moore was a pedophile.

This is the most annoying, constantly propagated myth of that campaign. Multiple people on the Jones campaign have said that the allegations didn't budge their internal numbers, while Trump's rally in the Panhandle shifted the race a few points towards Moore.

I mean, Jones campaign workers are not necessarily the most objective source on this. It certainly looks better on him if he won on his own merits and not because of his opponent's scandal. I'm not saying they're lying but I wouldn't take them completely at face value.

[IceSpear]

By the way, the first senate debate between Bredesen and Blackburn takes place tonight at 6 pm.

I saw the last half of that, and Bredesen definitely did a good job presenting himself as an independent minded person who would represent the interests of Tennessee rather than his party, in contrast to Blackburn.  Blackburn is an attractive woman though and I think Bredesen going too negative against her could backfire.   And Bredesen's support for abortion could sink him, but I don't know if Blackburn is making that an issue in the campaign.

Doug Jones was unapologetically pro-choice, and he won.  Tennessee has two major urban cores (Nashville and Memphis) that are much more populous than Alabama's major urban core (Birmingam).

Jones only won because he was able to gain majority support outside Birmingham (which Hillary Clinton won) and ran the board with cities Huntsville, Mobile, Montgomery, Tuscaloosa, and Auburn. Bredesen would have to run the board with places like Knoxville, Chattanooga, Clarksville, and Murfreesboro.

In fact, the main reason why Jones won is because Moore was a pedophile.

This is the most annoying, constantly propagated myth of that campaign. Multiple people on the Jones campaign have said that the allegations didn't budge their internal numbers, while Trump's rally in the Panhandle shifted the race a few points towards Moore.

The only poll to show the race close before the allegations was FOX, which also said Jones would win by 10 right before the election. So I'll take the actual empirical evidence plus common sense over the word of Jones' campaign, which has all the incentive in the world to spin things that way.

[new_patomic]

By the way, the first senate debate between Bredesen and Blackburn takes place tonight at 6 pm.

I saw the last half of that, and Bredesen definitely did a good job presenting himself as an independent minded person who would represent the interests of Tennessee rather than his party, in contrast to Blackburn.  Blackburn is an attractive woman though and I think Bredesen going too negative against her could backfire.   And Bredesen's support for abortion could sink him, but I don't know if Blackburn is making that an issue in the campaign.

Doug Jones was unapologetically pro-choice, and he won.  Tennessee has two major urban cores (Nashville and Memphis) that are much more populous than Alabama's major urban core (Birmingam).

Jones only won because he was able to gain majority support outside Birmingham (which Hillary Clinton won) and ran the board with cities Huntsville, Mobile, Montgomery, Tuscaloosa, and Auburn. Bredesen would have to run the board with places like Knoxville, Chattanooga, Clarksville, and Murfreesboro.

In fact, the main reason why Jones won is because Moore was a pedophile.

This is the most annoying, constantly propagated myth of that campaign. Multiple people on the Jones campaign have said that the allegations didn't budge their internal numbers, while Trump's rally in the Panhandle shifted the race a few points towards Moore.

I think we should throw the Jones internal numbers that showed no effect on the polls when the allegations surfaced into the average. Other polls did show substantial effect on the race when the allegations surfaced. Put it together, and it likely had a smaller effect than that some of the most swingy polls displayed, but still a real effect.

Didn't the bump Jones received following the Washington Post story fade out by the week before the election?

[TML]

By the way, the first senate debate between Bredesen and Blackburn takes place tonight at 6 pm.

I saw the last half of that, and Bredesen definitely did a good job presenting himself as an independent minded person who would represent the interests of Tennessee rather than his party, in contrast to Blackburn.  Blackburn is an attractive woman though and I think Bredesen going too negative against her could backfire.   And Bredesen's support for abortion could sink him, but I don't know if Blackburn is making that an issue in the campaign.

Doug Jones was unapologetically pro-choice, and he won.  Tennessee has two major urban cores (Nashville and Memphis) that are much more populous than Alabama's major urban core (Birmingam).

Jones only won because he was able to gain majority support outside Birmingham (which Hillary Clinton won) and ran the board with cities Huntsville, Mobile, Montgomery, Tuscaloosa, and Auburn. Bredesen would have to run the board with places like Knoxville, Chattanooga, Clarksville, and Murfreesboro.

In fact, the main reason why Jones won is because Moore was a pedophile.

This is the most annoying, constantly propagated myth of that campaign. Multiple people on the Jones campaign have said that the allegations didn't budge their internal numbers, while Trump's rally in the Panhandle shifted the race a few points towards Moore.

I think we should throw the Jones internal numbers that showed no effect on the polls when the allegations surfaced into the average. Other polls did show substantial effect on the race when the allegations surfaced. Put it together, and it likely had a smaller effect than that some of the most swingy polls displayed, but still a real effect.

Didn't the bump Jones received following the Washington Post story fade out by the week before the election?

It may have moderated somewhat, but although RealClearPolitics' final polling average before the election had Moore up slightly, Moore's lead was never at the magnitude it had been at before his allegations came out. In fact, by the final days of the race, this race was judged to be a toss-up by virtually all major political organizations, which meant that Moore was certainly vulnerable despite having a slight polling lead.

IMO, another way the allegations may have impacted the race is that it probably made many people who had voted for Trump and/or Shelby in 2016 sit out the election, simply because Moore wasn't particularly inspiring to them. Compared to 2016 numbers, Moore's raw vote total was only about 49% of what Trump & Shelby got, while Jones' raw vote total was 92% of what Clinton got and 90% of what Crumpton got.

[Brittain33]

Strong attack ad from Bredesen.

He's going to give so many Democrats heartburn in office if he wins.

[TML]

Strong attack ad from Bredesen.

He's going to give so many Democrats heartburn in office if he wins.

Amen to that.

Right now, I think his political positions are closer to the likes of Joe Manchin or Heidi Heitkamp than the likes of Jon Tester, Doug Jones, Joe Donnelly, or Claire McCaskill.

[OneJ]

Strong attack ad from Bredesen.

Well we have at least one Democrat taking IceSpear's advice.

[TheSaint250]

Strong attack ad from Bredesen.

He's going to give so many Democrats heartburn in office if he wins.

Amen to that.

Right now, I think his political positions are closer to the likes of Joe Manchin or Heidi Heitkamp than the likes of Jon Tester, Doug Jones, Joe Donnelly, or Claire McCaskill.

Seems to be campaigning to the right of them, even.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Strong attack ad from Bredesen.

Well we have at least one Democrat taking IceSpear's advice.

That hardly qualifies as an attack ad. Weak sauce typical of Democrats.