🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[President Johnson]

Wanted to share two interesting links to ZEIT:

All interactive results: https://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2021-09/wahlergebnisse-bundestagswahl-2021-wahlkreise-karte-deutschland-live

Interactive graph of Bundestag members: https://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2021-09/bundestag-interaktive-sitzverteilung-bundestagswahl-abgeordnete

The latter is especially interesting for SPD and Greens, who have a lot of younger members in. The new SPD caucus is split nearly 50/50 between new and reelected members. Average age is just about 46 years. Nearly 42% of the 206 are women, 56% of all members are 40 years or younger. Truly proud of my party to have such a diverse caucus that really represents the country.

[President Johnson]

For the record: The incoming SPD faction reelected Rolf Mützenich as caucus leader with 97% of the vote today. Mützenich, who was initially seen as an interim figure when he took the post in 2019, belongs to the party's left wing but is generally considered a pragmatist who's able to work out compromises among members and coalition partners. He certainly earned a lot of trust and goodwill across the various factions within the SPD and is publically respected as a very kind person. Definitely a strong sign, the party is united and ready to take to reigns of government as the senior coalition partner.

Earlier today, more Greens came out in favor of a trafficlight coalition, including Cem Özdemir and especially the Green youth. However, Hamburg Deputy Mayor Katharina Fegebank, who also served as Olaf Scholz' second in command, told her party that Scholz is a very tough negotiator, knowing him from their coalition government in Hamburg.

[President Johnson]

Annalena Baerbock has just said that the Greens are planning to talk with the SPD on Sunday, but unlike the FDP they haven't scheduled a meeting with the CDU yet. But it is probably gonna happen sometime next week.

Makes sense.  FDP if they prop up SPD may take a minor hit next election, but as long as they block a lot of more left wing policies, they can take credit for that.  Greens by contrast will pay big time if they prop up CDU/CSU and could even risk falling below 5% threshold.  The Green electorate is overwhelmingly on the left and urban whereas FDP is more evenly spread out and is more like CDU on economic policy, but more like SPD on social policy.

The Greens would probably lose a lot of support in a Jamaica coalition, though I don't see them falling that low. However, Laschet may sell out everything to them just to get elected in the end. However, others in the CDU and especially Söder have no desire to sacrifice everything for such a government with a weak Laschet as chancellor. What kinda concerns me is that my Minister-President Winfried Kretschmann is a member of the negotiating team this weekend. Back in spring, he decided to continue the (state) coalition with the CDU against the overwhelming will of the Green base and their MPs and although both SPD and FDP wanted a trafficlight coalition under Green leadership. Also hilarious he recently urged Scholz to do more about climate when at the same time his record on the issue is pretty weak here. My state just built 16 wind turbines in 2020, which is a ridiculously low number. And even more ridiculous under a Green-led state government.

On the other hand, I believe the FDP has more to gain from a trafficlight coalition: The party could sell itsself as the "centrist corrective" for economic growth, innovation and a solid fiscal policy in such a government. That would make it a lot harder for a CDU opposition compared to a government formed only by left of center parties (especially R2G). And while some Free Democrats may see the Union more of a "natural partner", they didn't forget how messy the Black-yellow government from 2009 to 2013 was. They were thrown out of the Bundestag after these four years and the atmosphere between CDU/CSU and FDP was often toxic.

If - and it's still an if - things go exactly right, I think trafficlight could be a lasting government option for at least the next decade that combines social safety, bold climate action, economic and technological innovation as well as an open society. As Süddeutsche wrote today, Olaf Scholz attempts to build exactly that and make sure the SPD remains in charge for a long time. His remarks yesterday that any coalition should aim to get reelected weren't said by accident.

[President Johnson]

If the FDP does indeed torpedo Traffic Light, bit the Greens refuse Jamaica, could we then get Afghanistan if the CDU sees another opportunity to be in power? It might be overkill given the size of said coalition

Doubtful, though ironically a politicial scientist (forgot his name) that was interviewed by my local radio station on Tuesday predicted exactly that: Greens and FDP can't resolve their differences in economic and tax policy and ultimately there will be a grand coalition with the Greens in addition. That coalition would also have a large majority in the Bundesrat.

However, I don't see it. Greens and FDP want to govern after years in opposition and the Union is in disarray. And Söder's most recent behavior clearly indicates that he has no desire for a weak chancellor Laschet. He wants to win the Bavarian state election in 2023 and thinks that's easier with Olaf Scholz as chancellor. He may also intend to be chancellor candidate in 2025.

[President Johnson]

What's also interesting is how different certain districts and Landkreise (counties) are represented, depending on party lists. In mine (Böblingen), every Bundestag party except Die Linke has a member: CDU (Marc Biadacz, directly elected), SPD (our own freshwoman Jasmina Hostert, big FF), FDP (Florian Thoncar, relatively well known FDP politician), Greens (Tobias Bacherle, another freshman who just finished university) and AfD (far-right sleazybag Markus Frohnmeier).

Funny enough, former Linke Leader Bernd Riexinger is also from our county and entered the Bundestag on a list mandate, though he ran in Stuttgart.

[President Johnson]

FDP is scheduled to meet with both SPD (afternoon) and Union (evening) today. SPD and Greens will also meet in the evening. FDP Leader Christian Lindner and his General Secretary Volker Wissing in recent comments aleady seem to slowly distance themselves from the Union. Wissing said something like "the Union must resolve whether they speak with one voice." Lindner stated: "CDU and CSU must clarify whether they actually want to lead a government. Some from within the CDU speculate their party might be back in the game after negotations for a trafficlight coalition failed. This is unconscionable for the country." Lindner wants a government formed before New Year's eve.

Meanwhile, 2017 SPD Chancellor candidate Martin Schulz called upon Laschet to resign after clearly losing the election. And even CDU Deputy leader, Health Minister and Laschet ally Jens Spahn demanded renewal of his party, both in terms of political contents and leadership. Whatever that means...

Hardly a surpirse, leadership of the Green Youth announced their staunch opposition to a Jamaica coalition and preference for a government led by Social Democrats.

[President Johnson]

FDP is scheduled to meet with both SPD (afternoon) and Union (evening) today. SPD and Greens will also meet in the evening. FDP Leader Christian Lindner and his General Secretary Volker Wissing in recent comments aleady seem to slowly distance themselves from the Union. Wissing said something like "the Union must resolve whether they speak with one voice." Lindner stated: "CDU and CSU must clarify whether they actually want to lead a government. Some from within the CDU speculate their party might be back in the game after negotations for a trafficlight coalition failed. This is unconscionable for the country." Lindner wants a government formed before New Year's eve.

Meanwhile, 2017 SPD Chancellor candidate Martin Schulz called upon Laschet to resign after clearly losing the election. And even CDU Deputy leader, Health Minister and Laschet ally Jens Spahn demanded renewal of his party, both in terms of political contents and leadership. Whatever that means...

Hardly a surpirse, leadership of the Green Youth announced their staunch opposition to a Jamaica coalition and preference for a government led by Social Democrats.

Yeah, bottomline is that leading figures of the FDP continue to underline the greater ideological commonality with the CDU/CSU while at the same time starting to publicly question the readiness and willingness of the Union parties to enter (and lead) the next government. Could be considered a sign that the FDP is positioning itself for Traffic light and that the talks with the CDU serve the purpose of showing their own base that they had at least tried to make Jamaica work.

Some politicial observers already say trafficlight might be the better option of the FDP and some of their leading figures secretly prefer it. A red-green-yellow government would allow the Free Democrats to occupy the centrist or pro-business/solid budgets lane that otherwise the Union would do and pose as a "corrective" for SPD and Greens when it comes to economic growth. CDU/CSU may find themselves in further misery as they would seem more or less obsolete. Their "competence values" in polls have already massively declined when it comes to economic policy.

Also, Lindner isn't stupid and can read polls. In the most recent ZDF survey, even most FDP voters now prefer that option and think it more stands for renewal to saving Laschet into a Jamaica coalition.

[President Johnson]

While the content of the recent Greens/FDP, SPD/FDP, and SPD/Greens talks remained super-secret, someone apparently leaked specifics from yesterday's CDU/CSU/FDP meeting to the BILD which in turn caused the FDP to be pissed at the Union parties as evidenced by a tweet from FDP offical Johannes Vogel which was then retweeted by Christian Lindner.

https://mobile.twitter.com/johannesvogel/status/1445048792236142598

The Tagesspiegel newspaper speculates that the leak must have come from anti-Laschet forces within the Union, more specifically the CSU, in an attempt to sabotage the Jamaica talks.

https://m.tagesspiegel.de/politik/charakterlos-miese-nummer-sondierungs-leak-bei-union-bringt-fdp-und-laschet-lager-in-rage/27675552.html

On the other hand, the leaked information could cause bad blood between FDP and Greens, because Lindner allegedly said in yesterday's meeting with CDU/CSU that he wants Jamaica and that it is now the CDU's job to "pull" the Greens towards that coalition model, asking Laschet & Co. whether they are ready and willing to do that.

Lmao, goes my imagination too far to at least consider this could be a stab in the back move by Söder or someone close to him? The guy wants Laschet gone and no Jamaica coalition so that he run a "Bavaria first" campaign in 2023 against Chancellor Scholz and the trafficlight coalition and subsequently position himself for 2025.

[President Johnson]

If that continues, I will personally write to Saskia and NoWaBo and suggest awarding Söder the title of "employee of the year." Thank you, Sönnenkönig, very cool!

[President Johnson]

If the FDP really refuses to work together with the SPD and the Grüne really refuses to work together with the CDU/CSU, is there any possibiity of a SPD-Grüne minority government?

I think both Baerbock/Habeck and Lindner/Wissing know what's at stake here which is why the chances are low for that to happen. In the unlikely event Greens and FDP can't find an agreement, I honestly predict a Kenya coalition of SPD-CDU/CSU-Greens. The grand coalition is just done, although there's still a 402 seat majority for SPD and Union alone. The Greens in addition would at least make it look like an actual page turn from the status-quo. Kenya also has a strong Bundesrat majority. However, I really don't see failure here. All participating leaders know they can't afford failure.

Minority governments aren't a thing in Germany, and for good reasons. In this case, it would be hardly doable anyway since Red-Green is too far away from a majority and even Die Linke, which is in disarray now, can't get them enough votes. It would just be not stable enough and you can't run a country like Germany with that much uncertainty.

[President Johnson]

The Greens have proposed to the FDP to start trilateral negotiations with the SPD to form a traffic light coalition.

This puts pressure on the FDP to follow suit quickly, otherwise we have a stalemate now.

FDP just accepted the invitation. Lindner said a meeting between him, Green leaders and Scholz is already scheduled for tomorrow.

There will be no parallel talks with Union, he added. So Laschet is probably done.

[President Johnson]

Söder just stated that he sees the decision of FDP and Greens to negotiate a traffic light coalition as a clear refusal to any further Jamaica negotiations, while Laschet wants to keep that option open. Outgoing Economy Minister Peter Altmaier, one of Merkel's closest allies, also said that CDU/CSU should "do their homework" and show that they have understood the lections of 26/09 - Which essentially means going to the opposition benches.

It's not a question whether but rather when Laschet has to depart from his office as CDU leader.

Lmao, he was the leak. It’s so obvious. Funny enough, Laschet stated he’s still “open for talks.” He’s beyond delusional at this point.

[President Johnson]

Sum of the progressive vote

1949: 35.0% (SPD+KPD)
1953: 31.0% (SPD+KPD)
1957: 31.8% (SPD)
1961: 36.2% (SPD)
1965: 39.3% (SDP)
1969: 42.7% (SPD)
1972: 46.1% (SPD+DKP)
1976: 42.9% (SPD+DKP)
1980: 44.6% (SPD+Grüne+DKP)
1983: 44.0% (SPD+Grüne+DKP)
1987: 45.3% (SPD+Grüne)
1990: 40,9% (SPD+Grüne+PDS)
1994: 48.1% (SPD+Grüne+PDS)
1998: 52.7% (SPD+Grüne+PDS)
2002: 51.1% (SPD+Grüne+PDS)
2005: 51.0% (SPD+Grüne+Linke)
2009: 45.6% (SPD+Grüne+Linke)
2013: 42.7% (SPD+Grüne+Linke)
2017: 38.6% (SPD+Grüne+Linke)
2021: 45.4% (SPD+Grüne+Linke)

This is an oversimplification, party platforms change, sometimes there can be progressive vote outside these parties.
But we can see here that since 1969, the sum of the progressive vote is stable around 45%. The exceptions are the bad performances of 1990 (reunification) and 2017, and the good performances of 1998, 2002 and 2005, when Gehrard Schröder was running.

Between 1972 and 1980 (maybe even including 1969), the FDP would probably also account for the progressive camp as the Liberals ran on forming a social-liberal coalition with the SPD.
I would lean to exclude KPD and DKP from this calculation.

It's interesting that Lindner, while ruling out a "shift towards the left", recently spoke about a government of a "progress-friendly center" (fortschrittfreundliches Zentrum). I think that term should be a contender for word of the year, together with Vorsondierungen and Ampelkoalition.

[President Johnson]

Aaand... Söder is at it again, now saying at a local party convention that Armin Laschet was de facto not wanted and is responsible for the defeat. He immediately got a harsh response from fellow MP Daniel Günther, who said Söder is trying to bully others to look better himself. Söder also added the Union should not ingratiate itsself to Greens and FDP. He's definitely working overtime to put the final nail in Jamaica's coffin and therefore Laschets last "life insurance" as CDU leader.

[President Johnson]

Is there any place where I could see how the math worked in this election for the Party list seats?

Try this one: https://www.mandatsrechner.de/

[President Johnson]

Is there any place where I could see how the math worked in this election for the Party list seats?

Try this one: https://www.mandatsrechner.de/

Thanks, but I'm looking for like how actual calculations/equations that were run so I could run an example in a non-German scenario.

This site at least has some features how you can allocate seats in various different modes: https://wahlinfo.de/probewahl/sitzverteilung/

[President Johnson]

Is there any possibility of the Ampel coalition be confirmed tommorow?

No, the talks will resume Wednesday and Friday. On one occasion Scholz won't be present because he has an international meeting in Washington DC as finance minister. The parties are expected to make a statement on Friday. Actual coalition negotiations could start as soon as next week. This schedule was already agreed upon last Friday.

Today's meeting went smoothly according to sources and lasted ten hours. There were no leaks so far what suggests the talks were conducted very professionally and with mutual trust, despite the many policy issues that need to be resolved.

[President Johnson]

A new poll, that confirms previous ones after the election. SPD easily the strongest party, while the CDU continues to decline. Greens and FDP stable in the mid teens, slowly catching up to the Union. Die Linke is on the edge to become irrelevant.

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1447598007386578948

[President Johnson]

News about government formation: General Secretaries Lars Klingbeil (SPD), Volker Wissing (FDP) and Michael Kellner (Greens) gave a joint statement today that after 14 hours of consultations yesterday and today. So, there's likely going to be a decision after the next meeting, scheduled for Friday. All three will summarize the talks over the next days and then see whether there's basis for actual coalition negotiations that could start as soon as next week. Secrecy was again agreed to and it very much seems all three parties are keeping their word (which is very important to build trust). All three spoke of constructive talks again, Kellner said differences in some areas got smaller and there's now more understanding for each side's positions.

Perhaps talks could have resumed sooner, but Olaf Scholz had to leave today in the afternoon for the IWF's annual meeting of finance ministers that takes place in Washington DC. He'll be back on Friday.


Another story in the news: There's some controversy over seat arrangements in the Bundestag's plenary chamber between Union and FDP now, because the latter doesn't want to be seated next to AfD. They already complained about that in 2017. The current seat order from left to right is Linke-SPD-Greens-Union-FDP-AfD. Free Democrats now want to move to the center between Union and Greens, though the Union vehemently opposes that.

At the new Bundestag's first meeting on October 26 the factions will be seated in the same order as during the previous term. However, the seat order could be changed for the FDP in case of a trafficlight coalition. All it takes is a majority vote and SPD-Greens-FDP have a comfortable majority. The governing parties in a trafficlight coalition would then be seated next to each other in the chamber's center.

[President Johnson]

Another poll with the Union below 20%. The collapse continues, while Greens and FDP gain more ground. SPD is stable or slightly climbing. A recent poll also found that Scholz is even leading Söder by six points in chancellor preference (Laschet gets completely demolished, 52% to 8%).

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1448666331449024513

[President Johnson]

Statement from trafficlight party leaders expected very soon today. DPA is already reporting that SPD, Greens and FDP intend to start actual coalition talks next week.

EDIT (it's official):

https://twitter.com/jared_reed/status/1448965553880813568


CHANCELLOR SCHOLZ INCOMING

[President Johnson]

Statement from trafficlight party leaders expected very soon today. DPA is already reporting that SPD, Greens and FDP intend to start actual coalition talks next week.

When is Schulz likely to become chancellor? (educated guess on basis of what we know right now)

Actual coalition negotations are expected to begin next week. That will certainly last three or four weeks and afterwards all three parties need internal approval. The Greens will definitely issue a referendum among members, perhaps the SPD as well. FDP will most likely hold a party convention. So all in all, if things go smoothly, the new government could take office in December, just before christmas.

[President Johnson]

The agreement paper that was presented today will be the framework for actual coalition negotiations. Some issues and compromises here:

- Robert Habeck said Germany is aiming to become carbon neutral within one and a half decades. Exact measures will be discussed in coalition agreements.

- While tax hikes are off the table and Germany expected to return to the debt brake in 2023 (that was a red line of the FDP), a minimum wage hike to 12,-€ as promised by Olaf Scholz and supported by the Greens was agreed to. Christian Lindner explicitly confirmed this was a key demand from SPD and Greens he was willing to accept.

- The FDP seems to have gotten so called Aktienrente, which means an addition to the public social security system similar to Sweden, where retirement funds are invested in the capital market. Like many other Western nations, Germany has a demographic problem to fund social security beyond 2025.

- More generally, all three parties emphasized the need for massive investments in digital infrastructure and climate action.

Overall, the word "modernization" was used many times by all participants of the press conference. Interestingly, Lindner said this was only possible in this trio, which is kinda surprising as he was long leaning towards a coalition with CDU/CSU. All three parties praised the constructive and confidential nature of the talks.

[President Johnson]

Statement from trafficlight party leaders expected very soon today. DPA is already reporting that SPD, Greens and FDP intend to start actual coalition talks next week.

When is Schulz likely to become chancellor? (educated guess on basis of what we know right now)

Actual coalition negotations are expected to begin next week. That will certainly last three or four weeks and afterwards all three parties need internal approval. The Greens will definitely issue a referendum among members, perhaps the SPD as well. FDP will most likely hold a party convention. So all in all, if things go smoothly, the new government could take office in December, just before christmas.

So there is a 90% chance or so Merkel becomes longest serving Chancellor of post-WWII Germany?

Hard to say at this point, she would need stay in office until December 19. I think Scholz' election could happen in the days before or shortly afterwards. Previous chancellor elections took place on a Tuesday, so it could be - to do some wild guessing - December 14 or December 21. The in my opinion best political scientist in Germany, Albrecht von Lucke, just said in an interview he expects the coalition agreement to be presented in early December, if not sooner and chancellor election before christmas.

Obviously we're counting days as acting chancellor, too. Just a reminder that the new Bundestag will meet first on October 26, and President Steinemeier will then formally dismiss the government and appoint Merkel acting chancellor. Until then, she and the cabinet are still in office on a regular basis.

[President Johnson]

A somewhat more detailled summary of the agreement between SPD, Greens and FDP, which will be the framework for coalition talks scheduled to begin next week:

- Climate: Exit of coal energy production until 2030 to save carbon emmissions. This is eight years ahead of schedule: 2038 was the exit date of the Grand Coalition, but criticized by the Greens. Massive investments in renewable energies and science for new, climate friendly technologies planned. Trafficlight coalition wants planning and construction processes for wind turbines and power lines shortened significantly to speed up green energy production and guarantee energy safety at the same time.

- Minimum wage: Minimum wage will be increased to 12€/hour within the first year. Subsequent annual increases will be decided by an independent commission consisting labor, business and economists. An estimation is that this increase will give ten million workers a raise. It was a key promise by Scholz and the SPD.

- Finances and budget: No tax increases, debt brake will be reinstated in 2023 (it's currently paused due to Covid relief programs). However, global minimum corporate tax Scholz co-negotiated will increase tax revenue for the government. Subventions and other expenditures will be audited and a number of them will be reduced or abolished to save money for other purposes. These points were very important to the FDP.

- Social programs: "Hartz IV" will be replaced by a so-called Bürgergeld. Details not known yet, but a major reform of the controversial unemployment insurance adopted under Gehard Schröder in 2003 and that cost the SPD a lot of support since.

- Family policy: Adopt civil rights for children into the constitution (that will require CDU/CSU votes in Bundestag and Bundesrat)

- Housing: Measures to relief the housing market. Target is 400,000 new apartments annually, 100,000 of them subsidized by the federal government for low income households.

- Science: Spending increase for science to 3.5% of the GDP.

- Voting rights: SPD, Greens and FDP want to lower the voting age to 16 years. However, that requires a constitutional amendment and therefore CDU/CSU votes (at least Die Linke will vote for this, too).

- Digitalization: More investments, especially to modernize the state and its authorities.

- Immigration: Immigration reform and implementation of a point system similar to Canada.

- Drugs: SPD, Greens and FDP plan to legalize and regulate cannabis sale and consumption. That was long blocked by CDU/CSU.

These are ambitious goals and if most of that is enacted, a Scholz cabinet may really go down in history as one of the most reform-minded in modern German history.

Political observers already described the 12-pages long paper as relatively detailed as a basis for coalition talks and have praised the discipline the talks were conducted. The only question remaining is how the expenditures can be financed without tax increases. On a more general note, at least all parties agree to modernize industry and labor market and combat bureaucracy to bring Germany to a path of lasting prosperity and economic growth.

Some tax increases and the speedlimit on all highways were things I would have liked to see here, but I realize the FDP just couldn't do that (more important is that they agreed on the minimum wage hike). The Free Democrats came a long a way given that before the election Lindner said he "lacks the fantasy for an offer SPD and Greens could make". However, I'm very happy with the results and the manner of which the talks were conducted exceeded expectations by a lot. The fact that we are at this point today certainly proves functionality of the political system, which is nothing to take for granted.

Trafficlight was certainly my preferred coalition all along because there's the potential to unite social safety, environmentalism, innovation, sound economic and fiscal policies, an open society and a pro-EU, pro-Western foreign policy under the headline of more pragmatism and less ideology.