Japan 2022 Upper House elections July 10

[jaichind]

Tomorrow's Gendai makes a bold claim that LDP is at risk of losing 12 single member districts (Aomori, Iwate, Miyagi, Yamagata, Fukushima, Niigata, Yamanashi, Nagano, Okayama, Ehime(?), Oita and Okinawa). Like jaichind said though, they're tabloid trash but it's interesting to note which prefectures are believed to be close.

There are arguments for all of them including Fukushima (open seat, historically competitive) and  Okayama (LDI candidate blowup with KP) but I do not see an argument for Ehime as you pointed out.  The only argument is that it was close in 2016 and the LDP lost in 2019.  But that is due to one very unique pro-opposition candidate than ran and lost in 2016 and won in 2019 that is able to win over LDP voterrs.  Since she was elected in 2019 she is not on the ballot this year so I do not see any reason why the LDP incumbent would be in danger.

If I were them I would instead push 福井(Fukui) where a LDP rebel running with JRP support could split the LDP vote down the middle letting in the pro-CDP independent.   It is a long shot but at least there is some logic to it.

I currently have it at LDP 24 Oppostion 8 and that is at the outer edge of anti-LDP projections.

[jaichind]

Another typical obligatory KP newspaper freak-out is that their candidate in 兵庫(Hyōgo) is now going to lose.   They cried wolf in 2019 and got so many LDP tactical voting that LDP almost lost to CDP for 4th place.

[jaichind]

Heat waves continue in Japan.  Workers in Tokyo were asked to work in the dark.  The government came out with a program to give $15 to households that limits energy use which is being mocked on social media.

[jaichind]

JX comes out with their 538 like projection model

https://election2022.newsdigest.jp/prediction

[jaichind]

Heat waves continue in Japan.  Workers in Tokyo were asked to work in the dark.  The government came out with a program to give $15 to households that limits energy use which is being mocked on social media.

This is getting roundly mocked, but is it likely to actually do anything?

Most likely not but add to the narrative that if there is any momentum it is most likely an anti-LDP momentum.

[jaichind]

PNHK leader 立花孝志(Tachibana Takashi) speaks at NHK to present the case for voting for PNHK.  NHK has to give this opportunity to every party.

[jaichind]

Some Tokyo poll of unknown source (change from a week ago)
                                                   
                                                                men       women       
LDP  14.4 (-3.1)                                         15.3        13.0
JCP   11.9 (+1.3)                                       10.5        14.0
LDP  11.5 (-0.6)                                         12.5        10.6
CDP  10.7 (-2.7) (Renho)                            10.0        11.7
KP     9.6 (+1.4)                                          8.7        11.1
RS     7.0 (-1.7)                                           7.7         5.6
JRP    5.5 (+1.1)                                          8.6         3.6
TPFA  4.9 (+0.3) (backed by TPFA)                5.1         4.4
CDP   4.4 (+1.2)                                          4.7         3.8
Ind.   2.4 (+0.7) 乙武洋匡 (Hirotada Ototake)  2.5         2.1
SDP   0.6 (+0.1)

It seems KP supporters that are "hiding out as LDP voters" are beginning to reveal their true selves.  It seems 乙武洋匡 (Hirotada Ototake) is losing steam which is good news for JRP.  Media polls have the JCP fighting JRP for 6th place but this poll has JCP in very strong shape with RS/CDP vs JRP/TPFA tactical voting deciding the RS vs JRP battle for the 6th spot.

From a gender gap point of view, JCP and KP outperform with women voters while JRP clearly outperforms with men (even though the JRP candidate is a woman)


The same poll has the PR results (comparison to 2021)

             Poll         2021
LDP     32.6          31.0
KP        9.7           11.1
IPS                        0.5 (far right)
PNHK                     1.4
JRP       8.2          13.3
DPP      3.4            4.7
CDP     13.4         20.1
RS        4.8            5.6
SDP      1.6            1.4
JCP      10.2         10.4
Others  4.6

LDP KP RS and JCP seem to be holding on to their vote while CDP JRP and DPP seem to have lost ground since 2021.  Others at 4.6 would include PNHK and PP plus other various minor parties seem very high which implies a surge by PNHK or PP or most likely both.  

So the narrative seems to be similar to other polls with LDP KP holding on to their 2021 vote but so is JCP. In the meantime, CDP has lost ground to JRP and most likely JCP as well but JRP has lost ground to PNHK and PP which results in a wash or even a net loss for JRP.

[jaichind]

One of the LDP PR candidates that is certainly looking to join the Abe faction if she wins is running her campaign poster with an Abe poster.

[jaichind]

https://mainichi.jp/articles/20220703/k00/00m/010/202000c

The latest survey by Mainichi says the election is moving slightly toward the opposition.  They point out

1) out of 32 1- member districts the number of certain LDP seats has dropped to 21 with 福島(Fukushima), 福井(Fukui), and 宮崎(Miyazaki) being added to the competitive category from LDP certain to win.    The other 8 which are competitive or LDP certain to lose are the 8 I expect the Opposition to win.  Mainichi is moving toward my projection.

2) The number of competitive multi-member districts has gone up from 4 to 6.

3) On the PR side it expects CDP to win 7, and JRP to win 8 with JRP beating out CDP on the PR slate.  It seems to expect RS to win 2 PR seats with SDP PNHK and PP each having a shot to win 1 seat each.

[jaichind]

Nikkie's multi-member projections are mostly positive for LDP and JRP

In 北海道(Hokkaido) it has LDP winning the third seat over CDP
In 愛知(Aichi) it does have JRP falling short of winning the 4th seat over DPP and JCP
In 東京(Tokyo) RS wins a seat but JRP beats out JCP for the critical 6th seat
In 京都(Kyoto) it has JRP coming in first over LDP and then CDP.
In 神奈川(Kanagawa) it has CDP beating out JCP for the 5th seat but JRP is in first place
JPR outperforming in 大阪(Osaka) and 兵庫(Hyōgo)

Other than 愛知(Aichi) this is a massive JRP outperform and JCP underperform survey across the board.

[jaichind]

Summary of 1- member district projections of various media houses.   8 seats are pretty much the other edge of what the Opposition can expect to win which is exactly my current projection.

[jaichind]

Yomiuri projection.  Mostly the same as others.  Not as friendly for LDP as their medium projection for LDP is 60 seats.  Very positive for JRP with a medium of 15.   Note that KP will get 14 even though their projection has it at 10-15 so the other parties will mostly be at the lower end of their projection.  The shock projection here is minor parties (which is PP) could win 1-2 seats.  So they must pick up a surge for PP where PP could break into 3.5% and above range for 2 seats.  Wow.

[jaichind]

It's always funny to me how different media companies make up wildly different projections from the same raw data. CYOA but for polling.

They do have stringers on the ground that help them calibrate.

[jaichind]

Nikkie seems to believe that there is a massive JRP surge at LDP's expense.

Nikkie has 宮城(Miyagi) 秋田(Akita) 福島(Fukushima) 福井(Fukui) 奈良(Nara) 宮崎(Miyazaki) as competitive whereas other media outfits have them going to LDP for sure

For 宮城(Miyagi) it seems because JRP surge will cut into the LDP vote giving a chance for CDP
For 秋田(Akita) the pro-DPP independent with de facto JRP support seems to eating up the JRP vote and posing a threat to LDP
For 福島(Fukushima) it seems the JRP vote might go to the CDP-DPP-backed independent.
For 福井(Fukui) the JRP-backed LDP independent will cut into the LDP vote giving a chance for the pro-CDP independent.
For 奈良(Nara)  it seems the JRP candidate is catching fire and eating into both the LDP and CDP votes and could win outright
宮崎(Miyazaki)  it seems the DPP candidate is getting the surging JRP vote and taking enough votes to give the CDP candidate a chance.

On the flip side, they have 大分(Ōita) as a safe LDP win when many other media outfits do see it as competitive.

[jaichind]

Despite media surveys to the contrary there continue to be rumors out of 岡山(Okayama) that the LDP incumbant could be in trouble against the pro-CDP independent despite the JCP candidate being in the mix.    It seems the reason is that Rengo has decided to go all out to back the pro-CDP independent because the JCP is not part of the CDP alliance and more importantly it seems the local KP has also turned against the LDP.  It seems there are upsides to JCP not being part of the united opposition alliance which means Rengo and KP could switch over to a pro-CDP candidate.  We will see on election night how much these rumors hold up.

If they have turned against the local LDP, what was the most likely reason why?

From what I can gather it has to do with the LDP incumbent 小野田紀美 (Kimi Onada).  It turns out that she has an American father and was born in the USA but then moved to 岡山(Okayama) which is her mother's prefecture after she was born.  So like Renho she has her own birther "issues" to deal with.  She also started her political career in Tokyo where she went to college and became a LDP up-and-coming star there before running for the Upper House in 岡山(Okayama) in 2016 when the seat unexpectedly became an open seat when a long-time popular opposition politician retired.  The LDP and KP base, tired of losing to that popular opposition politician for years united in 2016 for what they mostly consider a generic LDP candidate to win which they did.

But 小野田紀美 (Kimi Onada) was always seen by the local LDP and KP organization as an "outsider" and that came to a head in her re-election.  The local KP organization was raising doubts about endorsing 小野田紀美 (Kimi Onada) this time around and it seems was mostly a ploy to get 小野田紀美 (Kimi Onada) to pay more attention to their interest.  It seems 小野田紀美 (Kimi Onada) struck back by saying that she did not need KP's endorsement which led to a blowup.   The local LDP prefecture assembly members are freaked out about this since without KP support they might take a hit in the 2023 prefecture assembly election.  On the other hand, there seem to be some LDP supporters that have always been not so hot about the LDP-KP alliance that came out in favor of 小野田紀美 (Kimi Onada)'s stance.  The pro-CDP independent tried to take advantage of this and asked for KP's endorsement and was rejected. 

The net effect is that the KP vote will be split between the LDP's 小野田紀美 (Kimi Onada) and the pro-CDP independent although I can see higher LDP turnout energized by what it appears to be小野田紀美 (Kimi Onada)'s principled stance.

The article also pointed out another reason why this development is not so rosy for the pro-CDP independent beyond a separate JCP candidate (well if JCP was backing the pro-CDP independent the KP who hates JCP above all else would back 小野田紀美 (Kimi Onada) anyway.)  The article points out that Rengo is backing the pro-CDP independent but used the phrase 吳越同舟 (Wu Yue on the same boat) to describe that alliance.  吳越同舟 (Wu Yue on the same boat) is an ancient Chinese saying from the Han dynasty that refers to a story from earlier Chinese history (during the era of Sun Tzu) where the kingdoms of Wu and Yue were rivals but when people from both kingdoms were stuck on the same boat that was about to capsize they all worked together to get the boat to safety.  Even though this saying was always about the need for enemies to pull together to deal with a present common danger the saying has always inferred (this is controversial as there have been alternative readings of this saying) that the alliance will break up after the common danger has passed.  The article's use of the phrase 吳越同舟 (Wu Yue on the same boat) implies the Rengo support for the pro-CDP independent is most likely not rock solid and some of the Rengo/DPP vote could go LDP.

Nikkie's survey said that the pro-CDP independent has 70% of the KP vote.  It seems it is defections of other parts of the opposition alliance to LDP and JCP that are preventing this seat from being compeititive.

[jaichind]

Nikkie has a JRP surge in 京都(Kyoto) which should be bad news for CDP which was viewed as ahead by other media outfits of JRP for the second seat.  The good news for CDP is that the JRP surge seems to be coming for LDP and KP voters.  If so the result could be JRP and CDP winning the 2 seats and LDP in a shock third place.

[jaichind]

Nikkie's survey said that the pro-CDP independent has 70% of the KP vote.  It seems it is defections of other parts of the opposition alliance to LDP and JCP that are preventing this seat from being compeititive.

What is the likeliest cause of these defections? What do these voters see in Kimi Onada?

As written before the reason would be the outburst from the LDP incumbent 小野田紀美 (Kimi Onada) saying publically that she "does not need KP endorsement" in response to the local KP having second thoughts about enforcing her.  I guess this blowup has the local KP steamed and is going over to the pro-CDP candidate, at least according to Nikkie.

[jaichind]

Nikkie's survey said that the pro-CDP independent has 70% of the KP vote.  It seems it is defections of other parts of the opposition alliance to LDP and JCP that are preventing this seat from being compeititive.

What is the likeliest cause of these defections? What do these voters see in Kimi Onada?

As written before the reason would be the outburst from the LDP incumbent 小野田紀美 (Kimi Onada) saying publically that she "does not need KP endorsement" in response to the local KP having second thoughts about enforcing her.  I guess this blowup has the local KP steamed and is going over to the pro-CDP candidate, at least according to Nikkie.

Oh, I was mainly wondering if she's got any particular charisma or something to that  effect, that could cut into the opposition-friendly vote.

Ah.  The Nikkie survey does not say but I would think that as a LDP candidate in a FPTP seat saying she does not need the KP vote I can for sure see projecting her as a politician with principles and push marginal LDP and opposition voters toward her.  Also of course JCP is in the race to count into the anti-LDP vote.

[jaichind]

Wow.  Nikkie has 宮城(Miyagi) 福島(Fukushima) and 奈良(Nara) (for JRP) as lean opposition all due to the JRP surge.  奈良(Nara) is out of nowhere.  On the flip side, they have 岩手(Iwate) as lean LDP when everyone else has lean CDP.

[jaichind]

I can buy a JRP surge, but it's difficult for me to see how JCP would lose out in Tokyo. They have a solid lock on 10% of Tokyo's vote. Also very hard to see them finishing first in Kanagawa where the LDP has a star candidate.

I would agree with you.  For JCP in Tokyo, Nikkie could in theory say that this is because of JCP->RS tactical voting.  There is no logical answer for Kanagawa and the fact they have the results they have indicates they have oversampled JRP across the board.

[jaichind]

I can buy a JRP surge, but it's difficult for me to see how JCP would lose out in Tokyo. They have a solid lock on 10% of Tokyo's vote. Also very hard to see them finishing first in Kanagawa where the LDP has a star candidate.

I would agree with you.  For JCP in Tokyo, Nikkie could in theory say that this is because of JCP->RS tactical voting.  There is no logical answer for Kanagawa and the fact they have the results they have indicates they have oversampled JRP across the board.

So what can we learn from the results they got, given this? Not saying it's useless, but what does this poll tell us?

That there are many undecideds and that convergence of pro- and anti- LDP media on a fairly narrow set of results most likely underestimate the volatility of the likely results.  It is very likely election night there will be some shocking results in a couple of prefectures and I suspect the PR section.

I think rising inflation with stagnant wages along with the heat wave is lowering support for LDP but marginal votes most likely think of CDP as just as bad.  This could benefit JRP but just as likely benefit the anti-system parties like PNHK and PP.

[jaichind]

Summary of all media projections for multi-member districts. (updated to include Jiji)

[jaichind]

Early voting is higher than in 2016 and 2019.  But the trend in Japan is moving toward more early voting so this is not a sign of higher turnout.  Also, the 2019 turnout was very low so any comparison has to take that into account.

[jaichind]

The final pre-election NHK poll has Kishida cabinet approval bouncing back



In terms of party support (not PR voting as NHK does not poll for PR vote), LDP-KP stayed the same while JRP and JCP went up and CDP went down.

Using my NHK pre-election party support -> PR vote model I have it at LDP-KP at the 46.5% to 48.5% range.  It seems to imply that the LDP-KP PR vote will fall from 2019 levels but be around 2021 levels.  Note that LDP tends to outperform on Upper House PR vote since you get to vote for a person and LDP PR candidates often tend to have appeal beyond the LDP.  So if LDP-KP merely matches 2021 PR vote share it is a de facto decline.

[jaichind]

Latest JX PR projection

LDP       16-19
KP           6-8
PP           1-2  !!
PNHK       0-1
JRP          8-9
DPP         2-2
CDP         7-9
RS           2-3
SDP         0-0
JCP          3-4

Looks like they are negative on SDP but very bullish on JRP especially PP.