Japan 2022 Upper House elections July 10

[jaichind]

A chart on the list of candidates per prefecture.  As pointed out before PNHK and PP are running candidates in every prefecture in an all-out effort to push up their PR vote

[jaichind]

Kyodo 茨城(Ibaraki) PR poll vs 2021 PR results

                           poll          2021
LDP                     33.5         38.1
KP                        7.2          14.1
PP                         2.1
PNHK                    2.1           1.3
JRP                       8.1           9.9
DPP                      4.3           5.9
CDP                    13.8         20.2
RS                        3.0           3.7
SDP                      1.0           1.3
JCP                       7.3           5.7
 
Not as good for JRP in terms of gains as in other prefectures and not as bad for CDP in terms of losses as in other prefectures.  JCP continues to outperform which I think is the shock of this cycle of polling.  Going by these trends I might have to accept that both PNHK and PP are likely to win a seat each although I think PP has a bigger chance than PNHK as the novel party always has the edge.

[jaichind]

PR poll for lean opposition長野(Nagano) vs 2021

                           poll          2021
LDP                     30.9         35.0
KP                         5.9         10.3
PP                         1.9
PNHK                    1.1           1.2
JRP                       7.5           9.1
DPP                      1.9           3.9
CDP                    23.1         26.3
RS                        1.9           3.4
SDP                                 1.3
JCP                     12.9           8.9

CDP really underperformed here in 2021 so while the comparison to 2021 does not look that bad for CDP in a broad perspective this poll is not good for CDP.  JCP once again doing very well in this cycle of polls.

I think in 2021 JCP really pushed the CDP-JCP alliance and as a result, a bunch of JCP PR votes went to CDP while anti-JCP CDP PR votes went to JRP and DPP.  This time around JCP is not pushing the CDP-JCP alliance and it seems that the JCP PR votes are coming back to JCP.  But it seems the CDP PR votes it lost in 2021 are not coming back and in fact, more have gone over to JRP.  JRP in the meantime is not gaining that much because it is losing some votes to the new far right parties like PP.

[jaichind]

栃木(Tochigi) PR vote poll vs 2021

                           poll          2021
LDP                     33.3         38.1
KP                         5.6          11.7
PP                         3.0
PNHK                    2.5           1.5
JRP                       9.5         10.3
DPP                      3.3           4.2
CDP                    16.0         24.4
RS                        5.5           3.6
SDP                      0.6           1.6
JCP                       5.5           4.5

Similar to PR polls in other prefectures.  PNHK PP polls very well here.  JCP and RS also outperforming.  CDP clearly the biggest loser relative to 2021.  LDP-KP and JRP vote mostly holding up but do not seem will be making many gains.

[jaichind]

Going by some of the prefecture-based polling I think the PR section now looks more like

          Vote share      seats
LDP       33.5%          18
KP         13.0%            7
PP           2.0%            1
PNHK      2.0%            1
JRP       14.5%            7
DPP        5.0%            2
CDP      14.5%            7
RS          4.5%            2
SDP        2.0%            1
JCP         8.0%            4

With mainstream opposition parties underperforming (CDP DPP and even JRP) and non-mainstream opposition gaining ground (PP PNHK RS JCP)

[jaichind]

Given how badly CDP is polling, what would a CDP-doomsday scenario look like and what would happen to the party? (splits, fusions, name change?)

It depends on how the other parties do.  I can see a CDP shift to the Right and merging with DPP to just reform DPJ again.  This means being supportive of some sort of Constitution revision so the Left faction of CDP will bolt and most likely become SDP II or something like that.  Another way is to be open to alliance with JRP in addition to JCP but JRP will demand that CDP be open to Constitutional reform. 

I guess one way or another CDP will have to get past the Consitiational reform issue.  Being against it in light of the growing power of the PRC and a more hostile Russia means that CDP will be viewed as anti-national by more and more Centrist voters and yield the nationalism card to LDP and JRP.

[jaichind]

Interesting nuggets from the Asahi projections at the prefecture-level

In LDP stronghold 石川(Ishikawa) far-right IPS is ahead of JCP for third place



In LDP stronghold 富山(Toyama) JRP is ahead of CDP for second place.  This one is not a super surprise as at the prefecture-level JRP is already emerging as the main opposition to LDP-KP as opposed to CDP

[jaichind]

Campaign signs for LDP stronghold 福井(Fukui).

The CDP-backed independent only has a chance because a LDP rebel (who was the former LDP speaker of the prefecture assembly and failed in his bid to get the LDP nomination) is in the mix.  The JCP candidate running mostly spoils such chances.


The LDP rebel sign does say that he is (an independent conservative, backed by JRP.)  This is a bad sign for him.  The LDP rebel should be trying to win the LDP vote.  Pushing the JRP angle might get him access to the ~10% JPR vote but weakens his ability to gain access to the huge LDP vote.  If I were him I would not mention JRP but instead, push "I am the real LDP in this race"

The CDP-backed independent does not mention CDP but uses a blue background to match CDP party colors.  It is a clever way to get CDP votes without directly offending anti-CDP voters

The JCP sign also asks for a PR vote for JCP which makes it clear what his campaign is all about: to get some more JCP PR votes since there is no way he can come anywhere close to winning.  In fact, he is certain to finish behind LDP LDP rebel and pro-CDP independent.  The Asahi projection has the JCP fighting for 5th place against PP.

[jaichind]

I think there is a good chance of Komeito going down to 6 PR seats. They almost missed out in 2019 when their 7th candidate was the 49th person elected, had the number of PR seats remained at 48, they would've lost. They also undeperformed expectations in the last 2 national elections. The party is slowly dying off and they can't really draw from the large pool of floating voters.

I agree that in the long run, the KP urban base is slowly dying out as it becomes more Southern and more rural.  Still, since KP has a very strong political survaliance system they must be aware of that.  For them to set a target of 7 means they either think that turnout will be low so they can win 7 or they think they can get enough marginal KP PR votes out.  Either way one takes great risks to bet against KP High Command projections and goals.

[jaichind]

It seems there is a heat wave coming to Japan soon.  LDP better hope there are no power blackouts.  If there are blackouts that might impact LDP at least on the margins.

[jaichind]

More party candidate MP position charts

LDP JRP PNHK DPP for Consituatonal revision, CDP RS JCP SDP against.  KP is in the middle.
LDP JRP PNHK DPP for military growth, CDP RS JCP SDP against.  KP is in the middle
LDP JRP PNHK DPP is mostly anti-PRC.  CDP RS JCP SDP KP is mostly not anti-PRC





LDP KP for keeping consumption tax, everyone else is for reducing consumption tax





LDP by itself is against allowing married couples to have separate surnames, everyone else is for with PNHK sort of being in the middle
LDP PNHK DPP for nuclear power, JCP RS SDP against, JRP KP CDP in the middle.  This is a change.  Both JRP and CDP used to be much more anti-nuclear.  But as energy prices surge and 2011 fades into the past they are moving toward a more pro-nuclear position.

[jaichind]

After many name changes PNHK this time around wants to be called NHK党 or NHK party.   They ask voters to write "NHK党" on the PR ballot.

Of course, the party is the opposite of what it seems to imply as it is really the anti-PHK party.  But I guess they figured they are well known enough that everyone knows that.  In fact, that bodes well for them in the PR section since this shows confidence in their name recognition.

[jaichind]

The size of the Japanese electorate continues to decline after peaking at 2016 as Japan's population shrinks.

2010: 104,029,135   
2012: 103,959,866
2013: 104,152,590
2014: 104,067,104
2015: Minimum voting age is lowered from 20 to 18
2016: 106,202,873
2017: 106,091,229
2019: 105,886,064
2021: 105,622,758
2022: 105,438,138

The voting power disparity in three prefectures is above the 3 times limit the Supreme Court of Japan prescribed in previous rulings. The value of a vote in Fukui is now worth more than 3x a vote from Kanagawa (3.032), Miyagi (3.025), and Tokyo (3.014). This has to be corrected by the next cycle in 2025. There are a few ways to address this, the simplest is by giving Kanagawa, Miyagi and Tokyo another pair of seats. Another solution would be merging Fukui's constituency with a neighboring prefecture's (most likely Ishikawa), but this will be very unpopular among voters and LDP bosses in both prefectures. The most radical solution would be reforming the whole upper house electoral system but it's unlikely that Kishida has the political capital to enact a large reform such as this.

Who benefits if one additional seat is added to Miyagi, Tokyo, and Kanagawa?

Miyagi it will be CDP.  In Tokyo and Kanagawa, it will be both CDP and JRP.  This is one of many reasons LDP prefers to not fix the problem by increasing the number of seats.  Another reason would be the accusation that they are just increasing the number of politicians that draw salaries off the backs of the voters.

[jaichind]

The size of the Japanese electorate continues to decline after peaking at 2016 as Japan's population shrinks.

2010: 104,029,135   
2012: 103,959,866
2013: 104,152,590
2014: 104,067,104
2015: Minimum voting age is lowered from 20 to 18
2016: 106,202,873
2017: 106,091,229
2019: 105,886,064
2021: 105,622,758
2022: 105,438,138

The voting power disparity in three prefectures is above the 3 times limit the Supreme Court of Japan prescribed in previous rulings. The value of a vote in Fukui is now worth more than 3x a vote from Kanagawa (3.032), Miyagi (3.025), and Tokyo (3.014). This has to be corrected by the next cycle in 2025. There are a few ways to address this, the simplest is by giving Kanagawa, Miyagi and Tokyo another pair of seats. Another solution would be merging Fukui's constituency with a neighboring prefecture's (most likely Ishikawa), but this will be very unpopular among voters and LDP bosses in both prefectures. The most radical solution would be reforming the whole upper house electoral system but it's unlikely that Kishida has the political capital to enact a large reform such as this.

They already had to do this for 鳥取(Tottori)/島根(Shimane) and 徳島(Tokushima) and 高知(Kōchi).  After many complaints, the LDP had to change election law to allow a party to have a PR winner that is at the top of the list regardless of where he/she is in the personal vote.  This allowed the LDP to put 2 candidates from these two areas at the top of their PR list to ensure that every prefecture is represented in the Upper House.  If they have to do this they will have to do the same.  Of course, that will create complaints from the various LDP professional support groups that run candidates on the PR section that their slots are being eaten up by these rural prefecture quotas.

[jaichind]

With Miyagi it's something of a wash, no? Because Miyagi itself is quite marginal, it basically locks in 1 LDP 1 CDP. Of course, Tokyo and Kanagawa it is indeed likely to be CDP and JRP.
Ultimately, a merger of Fukui and Ishikawa sounds at least as bad for a LDP as adding more seats, even leaving aside the fact it would be very unpopular with voters in that prefecture. Merging the two is a guaranteed loss of an LDP seat, while the LDP can possibly win 3/7 in Tokyo in a good year. Plus it's good for Komeito, which is their partner. Kanagawa doesn't seem too different.

Miyagi has a neutral national lean between LDP-KP vs Center-Left with a relatively weak JRP.  But the JRP vote might trend toward LDP-KP in a 1-on-1 race.  Given that if I were CDP I rather go for a 1-1 split with LDP than try to pull off narrow wins from LDP every time.  The core issue is CDP is not in a position to deprive the LDP-KP of a majority.  Their goal is to prevent a massive LDP-KP majority.  So anything that splits it 1-1 they should take.  As for Tokyo, I doubt LDP will take the risk of having 3 candidates in a 7- member district when Tokyo is trending JRP.  Having 7 gives CDP the space to win a second seat and assures a JRP seat as well.  In that sense CDP and JRP are more  better off that LDP to have a 7th seat in Tokyo.

[jaichind]

One of the PNHK PR candidates is 山本太郎(Tarō Yamamoto) who has the exact name as the leader of RS and is running for his old seat back in the Tokyo district area.

The PNHK  山本太郎(Tarō Yamamoto) seems to be a grocery store owner

[jaichind]

Kyodo news PR poll

LDP 16-23
KP 6-8
CDP 6-9
JCP 3-5
RS 1-3
SDP 0-1
JRP 6-9
DPP 1-3
NHK 0-1
PP 0-1

CDP & JRP neck and neck. Everyone else is at their expected level of support.

Remember, this projection is based on these same mega-poll raw data that all the media outfits jointly paid for and jointly shared.  Then each media house uses its own adjustments on the raw data to come up with their projections including local stringers in various prefectures.

[jaichind]

Agreed. Every solution isn't ideal from the LDP perspective but I think they will choose to increase the number of seats in the end since it will piss off fewer people.

On thought experiment would be, how would CDP design seats be the most optimal for itself relative to LDP.  The design is obvious, let all of Japan be arranged into a large number of 2- member districts.  You figure for 15% of them, the LDP can win 2 out of 2 and for another 10% of them JRP would win the second seat and for around 5% of them, JCP would win the second seat.  But that would give CDP (perhaps allied with DPP) a solid 35% of the district seats.  So if there is any chance to have more 2- member seat the CDP should jump at it.

[jaichind]

Party revenue with some info on the source.  LDP, JRP, and CDP mostly get funded by government funding of political parties based on the number of MPs and vote share. JCP's funding is massive and almost as large as LDP but most of it comes from the selling of its weekly magazine which all JCP supporters buy and is really a de facto party fee.   KP also makes a bunch of money from the KP newspaper which its supporters buy.  The size of the JCP revenue from its magazine is the secret of how JCP can run so many candidates and lose but have the funds to keep on coming back with more candidates that lose.

[jaichind]

Mainichi poll has Kishida cabinet approval/disapproval at 41/34.  A very large number of neutrals, with a lot of them being women.

[jaichind]

埼玉(Saitama) campaign posters

LDP CDP KP should win 3 out of 4 seats.  The last seat is a battle between the pro-DPP independent incumbent, JRP and JCP.  The pro-DPP independent who also indicates on his posters that he is backed by DPP is also an ex-governor of the prefecture which should give him the edge over JRP and JCP.  What is not clear is which of JRP or JCP is a greater threat to the pro-DPP independent.  Historically JCP has been strong here but JRP has been rising last few years in this urbanized prefecture.

The Japanese Marijuana Party is also running here with a platform for marijuana legalization (it has a picture of weed on its poster).

[jaichind]

Campaign posters for 神奈川(Kanagawa)

This is a 4-seat district but will election 5 this time since it will double as a by-election with the 5th place winner serving out the 2019-2026 seat and will be up for re-election.

The LDP and KP incumbents are certain to win.  The LDP incumbent is a political superstar and ex-actress and her sign shows LDP less promintely since she is likely to pull in non-LDP votes.  The other LDP candidate has an opposition background (DPJ and then YP) and shows the LDP party symbol more prominently since he will need LDP votes to win.   The JRP candidate is an ex-governor and running to get back his seat in the Upper House and also highlights the fact that he was governor of the prefecture.  The 2 CDP and JCP candidates are fighting for the 5th and last spot.  With 3 center-left candidates plus DPP and SDP candidates in the mix, there is very little chance of any of them making it into the top 4. 

The SDP candidate's poster which pushes the SDP PR slate makes it clear he is running to push up the SDP PR vote.   The same is clearly true for PNHK as well.   Being that there are 5 seats up for grabs there is the standard assortment of frivolous candidates as well.

[jaichind]

CDP and DPP are still using the same 民主党 abbreviation on official bulletins just as 2021. If a voter writes 民主党 on their ballot paper their vote will be divided proportionally according to how many regular vote there were in each ballot box. I believe that DPP overperformed slightly in 2021 because of this rule

Good point.  I know CDP was and still is pretty upset about how DPP "stole" votes that were meant for them.   I guess the good news for CDP is that with both CDP and DPP having been around for at least 4 years now the chances of a vote for 民主党 or 民主 is lower.  Back in the 2019 election, Abe kept on referring to CDP as DPJ (民主党) exactly for the reason of trying to cut down the CDP PR vote through technicalities.

[jaichind]

If PNHK does win a PR seat then it is for sure going to be youtuber 東谷義和(Higashiya Yoshikazu).  He used to run a retailer and then had to resign due to some scandal I do not quite understand.  But due to his name recognition, he switched to being a youtuber that just has all sorts of commentary.

His youtube channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC1vYgHei6CvL1IzRyuOZ_-w has 384K subscribers.

[jaichind]

2021 LDP Prez candidate and still possible future LDP leader/Japanese PM Kono campaigning in 神奈川(Kanagawa) for his old rival 浅尾 慶一郎(Asao Keiichirō) who spent his career in opposition circles (in the DPJ and then as leader of YP) but now have joined LDP.  Going by the sign on the bus it seems former PM and leader of the Aso faction 麻生 太郎(Asō Tarō) is also part of the stump speech lineup.